Ukrainian Election Results

Ukraine: Precipitous or Peril

The IMF announced its deal.  The first part is $18 billion over two years.  Then if the reforms required are pushed through there is another $9 billion available.  I think we're over the $40 billion in promised aid to Ukraine now.  

However, the aid does not come without teeth, serious teeth which are going to bite the average Ukrainian hard.  The first is a rise in the price of natural gas starting in May of 50%.  Not a phased in, but rather a simple jump.  The second I have seen is a serious cut in social spending by the government.  This has been already passed as of today, if I am not mistaken.  Finally, which won't hurt the average Ukrainian much, the tax rates for the richest Ukrainians are going to go up.  A LOT.  

The US White House and Congress have become become EXTREMELY worried about the Russian troops on the eastern border.  The types of units being moved in, their constantly exercising and continuous reinforcement seem to belie the claim these are normal exercises. It also fits the pattern before the invasion of Chechnya and Georgia.

Putin is getting angry over the threat of cutting Visa and Mastercard off from Russia.  He's threatening to make a domestic equivalent, but how long and how corrupt would it be?

The Right Sector marched on and protested in front of the Rada.  They want the Interior Minister fired for the death of Oleksandr Muzychko. They "apologized" to the Russians for not turning violent and having no plans to do so.

Timoshenko is planning to run for president of Ukraine.  If she gets it, its a disaster.  She should not be let ANYWHERE near the levers of power in Kiev.  She and Yuschenko are to blame for the Orange Revolution failing.  

 

Ukraine: Wither, Dither and Boom?

I retired that word, so you will not see me use it.

Aid to Ukraine.  The Euros promised $15 billion.  The US promised $1 billion. The IMF has not decided.  However, the World Bank has stated they will loan $3 billion for infrastructure in Ukraine this year.  That brings the total promised so far to $19 billion and the IMF may give as much as the Euros.  Unfortunately, there are two bits.  The first is that the US House and Senate are at loggerheads over IMF funding.  The Senate passed and attached some IMF reform to the Ukraine aid bill.  The House supports the aid, but not the reform.  This could cause problems.  I hope they realize how damned important this is right now and find a way through this fast.  The second bit, which is more amusing than bad, is Putin has stated it is illegal for the US or West to loan Ukraine money, specifically its against treaties.  *snork*

Ukraine is perilously close to going bankrupt.  They need financial aid immediately.

Obama says Ukraine has the full backing of the United States.  Prove it!  Get the House and Senate to move their rumps, Mr President.

From what it looks like the build up of Russian forces on the east and northeastern borders continues.

In Crimea, things remain dicey.  The Russians take over small posts.  The Marines and others are left alone.  The former is probably wise for the Russians. More troops continue to move into the Peninsula.  The Russians have shutdown the internet and all Ukrainian language tv channels.  They have also stopped all flights except to Moscow.

The anglophone russian apologists are starting to come round.  They are starting to say both sides are nuts rather than simply claim the West is the source of the problem and Kiev is evil.  Let me say there are NO ANGELS in this.  We have our problems.  The Russians have theirs.  yanukovich was a son of a biscuit though.  50% of a GDP over three years is astounding.  Doug once told a 'joke' about a dictator who took 100%.  Had Yanukovich not been ousted, Ukraine was headed that way.

 The Poles and Ukrainians have planned an air force exercise in May.  I hope this is on Ukrainian soil. The Poles keep reminding me of Stephen.  You can figure out the rest of what I mean.  Good for them, btw.

Yanukovich is not dead.  Oh the travesty of rumors which make us hope.  He's CEARLY delusional though.

The Crimean Tatars are all but saying "Over our dead bodies" that they will be Russian again.  I hope that won't happen.  In either interpretation of that.

Rumors are that TIMOSHENKO'S accounts are being unveiled.  I certainly hope so.  She's a snake.  I keep calling her Ann Coulter with a Ukrainian hairdo.  Her nastiness (and Yuschenko's) were why we are in this mess in the first place.  Its also why Yatsenyuk and Turchynov are handling this so much better: they learned from the idiocy of the Orange Revolution. 

Lots of people are saying there will be a civil war.  If anything it will be the mainland against the twits in Crimea.  

The funny bit for the day is the folks in Odessa.   They made a funny "Putin Go Home" Video.  Now they showed up at the Russian consulate and started draping pasta all over fence.  In Russian, apparently, 'hanging noodles on ears' means lying or you are in the act of lying.

At any rate, my bet is the endgame for Putin is another Frozen conflict.  He has a different way then to manipulate Ukraine and prevent it from getting into the EU and possibly NATO (though doubtful that last any time soon under ANY circumstances).  People smarter than I have concurred.  My only worry is he might pull the trigger and go for south and east Ukraine.

Euromaidan has Pittered out

Tacitly acknowledging that street protests would not topple Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich, one of his leading rivals told demonstrators on Sunday that the opposition would steer the country back towards Europe after winning the next election in 2015.

Tens of thousands of people gathered on Kiev's Independence Square for what has become a weekly event since late November, when Yanukovich's government refused to sign an association agreement with the European Union and turned instead to Russia for an economic rescue package.

The turnout was visibly lower than last week, when it was estimated at about 100,000, as many Ukrainians were busy preparing for the New Year holidays and the Ukrainian Orthdox Christmas, which is celebrated on January 7.

The falling numbers have eased the pressure on the government, which is pressing ahead with forging closer ties with Russia, having secured a $15 billion bailout package from Moscow and a discount on vital Russian gas supplies.

The opposition wants the country of 46 million people to move closer to Europe and escape the grip of Russia, its former imperial master.

"We are preparing to win the presidential elections," said Arseny Yatsenyuk, the leader of the opposition Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) party. "We are building a team... that will be able to turn Ukraine into a European country."

link.

The Ukrainian Struggle, Euromaidan Pull out the Big Guns...Washington Lobbyists

Rival political factions facing each other on the streets of Ukraine have also enlisted heavyweight lobbyists in Washington, some with connections at the highest levels of U.S. government, to promote their causes to American policymakers, media and members of Congress.

Among the high-profile lobbyists registered to represent organizations backing Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich's government are prominent Democratic lobbyist Anthony Podesta and former Republican congressional leaders Vin Weber and Billy Tauzin.

Meanwhile, Yanukovich's most prominent political rival, Yulia Tymoshenko, the former prime minister who is serving a seven-year prison term for alleged abuse of power, is represented in Washington by former Democratic Congressman Jim Slattery, a partner in the law firm Wiley Rein LLP.

The sums of money involved are substantial. Over the last two years, the European Centre for a Modern Ukraine, a Brussels-based organization sympathetic to Yanukovich and his political party, has paid $560,000 to Weber's firm, Mercury, and another $900,000 to Podesta Group Inc, for a total outlay of $1.46 million, according to a U.S. Senate database.

The database shows total payments over the same two years of $810,000 to Wiley Rein by Oleksandr Tymoshenko, a Ukrainian businessman and husband of Yulia.

"A lot of people are making a lot of money off Ukraine's political competition," said Bruce Jackson, president of the Project on Transitional Democracies, which advocates Western-oriented reforms in Eastern Europe.

"The Yulia-Yanukovich competition has definitely spilled out of the country. Both sides are heavily invested in representation in Washington," Jackson said. He said he and his group do not lobby.

link.

A General Strike: New Chapter in 50 Shades of Orange? Or Pointless?

Ukraine's political opposition said on Saturday it would set up a headquarters of national resistance following clashes between police and pro-Europe protesters and had begun to organize a country-wide strike.

"We have taken a common decision to form a headquarters of national resistance and we have begun preparations for an all-Ukraine national strike," former economy minister Arseny Yatsenyuk, one of three opposition leaders, told journalists.

He said the opposition parties sought the resignation of the government and early parliamentary and presidential elections to force out President Viktor Yanukovich.

link.

Those of you who have followed this blog know I am not a fan of Yanukovich.  He's a crook and a monster on a personal level.  You also know I am not  a fan of Timoshenko (Tymoshenko) either: the woman is a Ukrainian flavoured Ann Coulter.  Frankly, in many ways, Ukraine has developed into the situation which it has earned: the pettiness of its politics are obscene.  You think the US has dysfunctional political parties?  The worst of the Republicans and the Democrats ought to go take positions as interns at the Rada.

However, ranting aside...

It ought to be damned apparent Ukraine is under tremendous pressure right now.  Russia, which has the economic strings still, has enormous influence.  Putin does NOT want Ukraine to become part of the European Union.  He wants Ukraine to be part of the Eurasian Union, what some are calling the Soviet Union v2.0.  Truthfully, if I were Putin, with Putin's biases, I'd want Ukraine to be part of it, too: I have food security, a ethnically related population which I can absorb easier than any other than perhaps Belarus and I have several other - if developed - points for economic growth as well.  Just think!  1/3 of Ukrainians would probably uproot for better jobs.  Russian and Ukrainian are pretty close...so, 15 million workers!  Huzzah!

With Russia's strings pulling on Ukraine, the EU ought to have been willing to make guarantees they would step up for Ukraine...if they felt Ukraine was as important as is often implied in the media.  One journalist once said, without Ukraine Russia is not an empire.  If the EU wanted to defang Russia in that regard, in that manner, they ought to have been willing to step up.  They did not.  What message does that send?

Then there are some of the requires which Ukraine was required to meet in the agreement.  To Europeans, to even most Americans and Canadians and many others, they seem reasonable.  However, despite what Ukrainians and Europeans often state ("We get along so well because we are European!") Western European - even European Union as a whole values - and Ukrainian are vastly different.  While these ought to be included eventually, to do so in the first round was less than brilliant.

To make matters worse, Merkel's rant at Yanukovich was ... stupid, frankly.  Pride is a huge thing for Ukrainians. 

Ranting at the EU done.

Now for Ukraine.  Good grief.  Yanukovich's pride and paranoia are ridiculous.  If he thinks he can postpone the pain or make the EU come round to his position, he's mistaken.  He must give ground.  Yet his pride...he cannot.  Sadly, he of all people ought to know by doing this he is emboldening Putin.  The next time will not be better.  It will not be easier.  The thumb screws will be worse.  He'll be frakked even more.  You bet he's going to get slammed...unless of course he really does want a part of the Eurasian Union.  Has Putin given him some sort of promise?  There were secret talks... I may be going too far there.

As for the Opposition.  You folks are dumber than a sack of sand (I had something else in mind, but I try to keep this blog relatively family friendly).  You were in power.  You had the opportunity to reshape and pull Ukraine into the EU.  YET.  YOU.  BLEW.  IT.  Don't just blame Yuschenko.  ALL OF YOU WERE TO BLAME.  Petty squabbles and grabs for power and alienating anyone who might disagree without rather than compromising with them (a classic Ukrainian pitfall: agree with me or I will beat you into doing so!!!) made governing impossible.  Now you want to trigger a second orange revolution.   I doubt you will succeed, the Ukrainian people are even less enamored with those which have tried and failed than the Republican Party, but even if you do, it's going to be torture for the country either way.

While titillating to read about, exciting for the moment, in the end, in reality, an attempt at a second Orange Revolution looks to be more like a whole lot of painful torture.  Pain, not fun or excitement.  

Mr Klitschko:don't be Mr Grey.

(and stay IN ukraine, for goodness sake)

Pride & Paranoid are Driving Yanukovich to Play Hardball With the European Union

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich is seeking to outmaneuver the European Union in a tussle over the fate of jailed opponent Yulia Tymoshenko by threatening to pull out of a landmark trade pact next week, a European diplomatic source said on Wednesday.

The source quoted Yanukovich as saying in a meeting with an EU representative: "The current situation does not allow me to sign." But the source said he believed Yanukovich was bluffing to secure better financial terms from the 28-member bloc in return for signing the free trade and cooperation deal.

Ukraine is scheduled to sign the far-reaching agreement at a summit in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius on November 29, marking a strategic shift westwards for the former Soviet republic away from Russia.

But success in Vilnius has been thrown into jeopardy by a wrangle over the plight of ex-prime minister Tymoshenko, Yanukovich's fiercest opponent, whom he only narrowly defeated in a run-off vote in February 2010.

The 52-year-old politician was jailed in 2011 for seven years for abuse of office after a trial which Western governments say was political. Most EU governments would like to see her released before the summit.

Anxious to prise Ukraine away from Russia's historic embrace, the EU has focused efforts on a compromise by having Ukraine adopt a law under which Tymoshenko would qualify for going to Germany for treatment. She suffers from chronic back trouble.

Yanukovich, who fears Tymoshenko's political rehabilitation could harm his chances of re-election in 2015, has stalled over letting her go.

link.

European Union to Ukraine: Free Timoshenko or We're Done. Forever.

Ukraine risks seeing a historic free trade deal with the EU slip away for "a very long time" if it fails to make the moves needed for agreement at a summit next week, EU president Lithuania said Tuesday.

The blunt warning came as Ukraine's parliament delayed for another two days a debate on a bill that would let jailed former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko seek medical treatment abroad -- a key condition to securing the Association Agreement, a first step to EU membership.

The pact represents a landmark break by Ukraine from Russia, its master both in the Tsarist and Soviet eras. Moscow is infuriated by the prospect of Kiev's close integration with the EU.

With time running out and the November 28-29 summit in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius looming, anxiety over Ukraine's prospects of sealing the pact is climbing.

Lithuania's President Dalia Grybauskaite told AFP in an interview that Kiev must act now to secure the deal.

"There are no guarantees that it could be signed after a year or two... The pause in relations may take a very long period of time," she said.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and the opposition "share the responsibility" to find a compromise on a deal allowing Tymoshenko go abroad for treatment, or else the EU agreement will be scuppered, Grybauskaite said.

"If the law that solves the Tymoshenko issue is not adopted, EU member states will definitely not sign an agreement with Ukraine," she said.

link.

Ukraine has postponed debating the laws to make it happen by two days.

European Union to Ukraine: Yanukovich Must Intervene to Release Timoshenko...or Else

The European Union urged Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich on Monday to intervene personally to end a stand-off over jailed opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko that is threatening to derail an EU-Ukraine trade deal.

With less than two weeks to go before the trade agreement is due to be signed at a summit in Lithuanian capital Vilnius, EU foreign ministers made clear Ukraine had not yet done enough to meet conditions the bloc has laid down.

The fundamental sticking point is over former prime minister Tymoshenko, a fierce opponent of Yanukovich who was jailed in 2011 for seven years for abuse of office. Western governments have described the trial as politically motivated.

EU governments see Tymoshenko's case as symbolic of "selective justice" in Ukraine and want her to be allowed to travel to Germany to be treated for a chronic back ailment. There had also been a push by some EU governments for her to receive a pardon, but Yanukovich is resisting that.

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said he wanted Ukraine to look towards Europe and benefit from closer trade ties with the EU, but it also had to meet basic requirements.

"I urgently recommend Ukraine to act ... and not play for time. Time is running out," he told reporters in Brussels.

The foreign ministers had been expected to decide on Monday whether Ukraine had met the EU conditions for signing the agreement. But they put off their decision to allow time for a session of the Ukraine parliament this week they hope will pass a law that could permit Tymoshenko to go to Germany.

EU enlargement chief Stefan Fuele will travel to Ukraine on Tuesday and two EU envoys, former Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski and Irish politician Pat Cox, will also be in Kiev to try to broker a compromise on Tymoshenko.

Russia has used trade sanctions and the threat of disruption to energy supplies to dissuade Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and other former Soviet republics from moving closer to the EU. Russia has urged them to join a rival Russian-led customs union instead.

link.

Ukrainian Presidential Run-off Results

Via World Elections.

The crucial thing now is Yulia. What will she do? She could fracture Ukraine really badly. My hope is that she backs off and runs for PM again. Then she can bide her time and run again in 4 years. The peaceful hand over of power is damned important. I sincerely hope she realizes that.

Timoshenko Loses By 2.8%, Called on to Concede

Ukrainian opposition leader Viktor Yanukovich pressed rival Yulia Tymoshenko to concede defeat on Monday after a narrow victory in a presidential election that could tilt the ex-Soviet state back toward Moscow.

Adding to pressure on the fiery Tymoshenko, international monitors declared the election an "impressive display" of democracy and urged her to shake hands with her opponent.

With 98.4 percent of votes counted, official figures gave ex-mechanic Yanukovich, whose party is allied to the Kremlin's United Russia, a margin of 2.8 percentage points over Prime Minister Tymoshenko, meaning she could not catch him up.

Tymoshenko, who called supporters onto the streets in the 2004 "Orange Revolution" to overturn a Yanukovich election win that was ruled fraudulent, was uncharacteristically quiet on Monday. She put off a planned news conference until Tuesday.

Her supporters alleged numerous violations of electoral law in Sunday's runoff vote but election officials and monitors said they had not seen serious faults.

The international observer team headed by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) called on Ukraine's feuding political leaders to "listen to the people's verdict."

The OSCE verdict was tantamount to a call for Tymoshenko to accept the fight was over.

"Normally for the good of the nation the one who loses shakes hands with the one who wins," Assen Agov, head of a NATO monitoring delegation, told a news conference.

She seemed likely to make clear her position on Tuesday.

We'll see what Tuesday brings.

She lost this election based on her commentary about the East. The Donbas rejected her because her nasty, nasty comments she made the first time around in 2004. She really, truly lost this on her own, fair and square. I really hate Yanukovich. However, this election does seem clean. So long as Yulia concedes, then we will have seen a real and truly transformative event in Ukrainian history (which I hope Yanukovich doesn't undo), that the party in power hands over to the other...peacefully. This is a serious accomplisment.

Ukraine: Between Yanukovich and Timoshenko, Left and Right Banks

So, the election, round one, is over. Yushchenko got crushed. Now its between Yani and Timo in a run off since neither got more than 50%. It was 35% and 25% respectively. Timo's base of support was in the West. Yani's in the East, especially the Donbass. It'll be close, but either can win. As I have said before, Timo is like the Ann Coulter of Ukraine and Yani's...well...Nixon (bad side) crossed with ... Bush Jr.

Something that I truly hate about all of Ukrainian politics is that it has devolved into blocks purely based on personalities. The Block of Timoshenko, The Block of Lytvin, even the Party of Regions is really just the block of Yanukovich.

bleh.

My bet? Yani's gonna win. He won't be a Russian pawn, but the corruption will get worse and he'll make nice-nice with Darth Putin while trying his best to walk a careful line with the West.