The fighting has died back, save for the mopping up in Marinka by the Ukrainians and the artillery duels which have been with us for some time, and a ceasefire of sorts has resumed. It is not to say the fighting has completely halted, but it has died back from the direct assaults.
Artillery continues to rain down up and down the ceasefire line.
I have to admit, I am perplexed by what happened in Maryinka. The DNR made an attack, pressed multiple times from the morning until the evening and even made some nontrivial gains into the town. They blew p the police station, frex. OTOH, they seem to have been driven out and suffered significant casualties and doing far less to the Ukrainians than even the Ukrainians reported initially. What was the point? There seemed to be a half assed assault on multiple fronts, but none seemed to have made any progress. In the end, the attack on Maryinka and the other places was repulsed. It accomplished nothing: the Ukrainians have moved more equipment up and the victory here and elsewhere has increased morale.
The only way it makes sense is if it was meant to be a recon in force: probe the Ukrainians by hitting them fairly hard with a moderate sized force. Even then, I find the reasoning questionable: too much is being risked for so little. Even worse when it was sound defeat.
The size of the DNR forces seems to have been about what I guessimated: a battalion of tanks and a brigade of infantry. Their losses appear to be 80 dead, over 100 wounded and ten tanks lost.
Interestingly, there are reports of gunfire in Gorlovka and in other places it seems highly unlikely there are government troops there. What is going on?
There are supposedly sirens going off in Donetsk now. Are we about to see another attack? Or did something happen in Donetsk?
1 comment:
Was it a feint to draw attention and Ukrainian forces away from more important areas? That's the only thing I can think of, the old sleigh of hand trick, keep someone focused on something moving so they don't feel you take their wallet even if by all rights they should have.
I dunno, so weird. I'm glad for your great analysis.
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