Noel Maurer Asks: Could Bernie Saunders Win the Presidential Election?

Yes. It would be hard, but it is not science fiction.

An earlier post showed how many states Bernie Sanders would win in an absolute general election wipeout. In reality, such a wipeout is impossible. Consider the strongest post-1980 Republican candidacies in each major demographic group. In 1984, Ronald Reagan won 66% of the white vote. Robert Dole won 12% of the black vote. (Actually, Ford won 17% in 1976 and Reagan got 14% in 1980, but no Republican has come that close since.) George W. Bush won 44% of the Latino vote and 43% of Asian-Americans. If our hypothetical Rubio campaign managed to match all those numbers against Sanders, he would get only 55% of the vote. If he matched all those numbers and managed to get minority turnout back to 2004 levels he would get 56%. Now that is a big margin, but it is not 59%.

Moreover, no Republican is going to get 44% of the Latino vote in 2016. Maybe if immigration reform has passed, but that ship has sailed. Even Rubio would do well to match John McCain, which would give him an eight-point margin against Sanders; ten points if minority turnout collapses.

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