SETI Talks: Kepler's K2 Mission

KIC 2856960: an Impossible Star System Which *DOES* Exist and Observed by Kepler

KIC 2856960: the impossible triple star

Authors:

Marsh et al

Abstract:

KIC 2856960 is a star in the Kepler field which was observed by Kepler for 4 years. It shows the primary and secondary eclipses of a close binary of 0.258d as well as complex dipping events that last for about 1.5d at a time and recur on a 204d period. The dips are thought to result when the close binary passes across the face of a third star. In this paper we present an attempt to model the dips. Despite the apparent simplicity of the system and strenuous efforts to find a solution, we find that we cannot match the dips with a triple star while satisfying Kepler's laws. The problem is that to match the dips the separation of the close binary has to be larger than possible relative to the outer orbit given the orbital periods. Quadruple star models can get round this problem but require the addition of a so-far undetected intermediate period of order 5 -- 20d that has be a near-perfect integer divisor of the outer 204d period. Although we have no good explanation for KIC 2856960, using the full set of Kepler data we are able to update several of its parameters. We also present a spectrum showing that KIC 2856960 is dominated by light from a K3- or K4-type star.

KEPLER-10 REVISITED

ACCURATE PARAMETERS OF THE OLDEST KNOWN ROCKY-EXOPLANET HOSTING SYSTEM: KEPLER-10 REVISITED

Authors:

Fogtmann-Schulz et al

Abstract:

Since the discovery of Kepler-10, the system has received considerable interest because it contains a small, rocky planet which orbits the star in less than a day. The system's parameters, announced by the Kepler team and subsequently used in further research, were based on only five months of data. We have reanalyzed this system using the full span of 29 months of Kepler photometric data, and obtained improved information about its star and the planets. A detailed asteroseismic analysis of the extended time series provides a significant improvement on the stellar parameters: not only can we state that Kepler-10 is the oldest known rocky-planet-harboring system at 10.41 ± 1.36 Gyr, but these parameters combined with improved planetary parameters from new transit fits gives us the radius of Kepler-10b to within just 125 km. A new analysis of the full planetary phase curve leads to new estimates on the planetary temperature and albedo, which remain degenerate in the Kepler band. Our modeling suggests that the flux level during the occultation is slightly lower than at the transit wings, which would imply that the nightside of this planet has a non-negligible temperature.

A High False Positive Rate for Kepler Planetary Candidates of Giant Stars using Asterodensity Profiling

Authors:

Sliski et al

Abstract:

Asterodensity Profiling (AP) is a relatively new technique for studying transit light curves. By comparing the mean stellar density derived from the transit light curve to that found through some independent method, AP provides information on several useful properties such as orbital eccentricity and blended light. We present an AP survey of 40 Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs), with a single transiting candidate, for which the target star's mean stellar density has been measured using asteroseismology. The ensemble distribution of the AP measurements for the 30 dwarf stars in our sample shows excellent agreement with the spread expected if the KOIs were genuine and have realistic eccentricities. In contrast, the same test for the 10 giants in our sample reveals significant incompatibility at 4σ confidence. Whilst extreme eccentricities could be invoked, this hypothesis requires four of the KOIs to contact their host star at periastron passage, including the recently claimed confirmation of Kepler-91b. After carefully examining several hypotheses, we conclude that the most plausible explanation is that the transiting objects orbit a different star to that measured with asteroseismology - cases we define as false-positives. Based on the AP distribution, we estimate a false positive rate for Kepler's giant stars with a single transiting object of FPR≃70±30%.

Mini Neptunes May be the Most Common "Terrestrial Sized" Exoplanet Type

If the dataset from the Kepler mission is any indication, the most common type of exoplanets in our galaxy aren’t Earth-sized rocky worlds or hot Jupiters. In fact, the most common type of exoplanet isn’t one that we see in our own neighborhood at all.

“Perhaps the most remarkable discovery by Kepler is the amount of planets between the size of Earth to four times the size of Earth,” said Geoff Marcy, professor of astronomy at University of California, speaking at the American Astronomical Society meeting this week in Washington D.C. “This is a size range that dominates the planet inventory from Kepler and it a size range not represented in our own Solar System. We don’t know for sure what these planets are made of and we don’t know how they form.”

These “mini-Neptunes” as Marcy called them, represent a huge sample in the Kepler data; about 75% of the planets found by Kepler vary in size between the Earth and Neptune, and for four years since the Kepler data have been rolling in, scientists have been trying to understand these planets.

“There’s been an enormous amount of measurements and quantitative work by the NASA Ames Kepler team,” Marcy said.

While masses and planet densities emerged from the work, astronomers still aren’t certain how they form or if they are made of rock, water or gas.

link.

KIC11442793 Compared to Other Multi Exoplanet Kepler Systems

KIC 11442793 has an Exoplanetary System Like the Solar System...Compacted

THE PLANETARY SYSTEM TO KIC 11442793: A COMPACT ANALOGUE TO THE SOLAR SYSTEM

Authors:

Cabrera et al

Abstract:

We announce the discovery of a planetary system with seven transiting planets around a Kepler target, a current record for transiting systems. Planets b, c, e, and f are reported for the first time in this work. Planets d, g, and h were previously reported in the literature, although here we revise their orbital parameters and validate their planetary nature. Planets h and g are gas giants and show strong dynamical interactions. The orbit of planet g is perturbed in such a way that its orbital period changes by 25.7 hr between two consecutive transits during the length of the observations, which is the largest such perturbation found so far. The rest of the planets also show mutual interactions: planets d, e, and f are super-Earths close to a mean motion resonance chain (2:3:4), and planets b and c, with sizes below 2 Earth radii, are within 0.5% of the 4:5 mean motion resonance. This complex system presents some similarities to our solar system, with small planets in inner orbits and gas giants in outer orbits. It is, however, more compact. The outer planet has an orbital distance around 1 AU, and the relative position of the gas giants is opposite to that of Jupiter and Saturn, which is closer to the expected result of planet formation theories. The dynamical interactions between planets are also much richer.

Data Mining 22 Months of Kepler Data Produces 472 New Potential Exoplanet Candidates

Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler IV: Planet Sample From Q1-Q8 (22 Months)

Authors:

Burke et al

Abstract:

We provide updates to the Kepler planet candidate sample based upon nearly two years of high-precision photometry (i.e., Q1-Q8). From an initial list of nearly 13,400 Threshold Crossing Events (TCEs), 480 new host stars are identified from their flux time series as consistent with hosting transiting planets. Potential transit signals are subjected to further analysis using the pixel-level data, which allows background eclipsing binaries to be identified through small image position shifts during transit. We also re-evaluate Kepler Objects of Interest (KOI) 1-1609, which were identified early in the mission, using substantially more data to test for background false positives and to find additional multiple systems. Combining the new and previous KOI samples, we provide updated parameters for 2,738 Kepler planet candidates distributed across 2,017 host stars. From the combined Kepler planet candidates, 472 are new from the Q1-Q8 data examined in this study. The new Kepler planet candidates represent ~40% of the sample with Rp~1 Rearth and represent ~40% of the low equilibrium temperature (Teq less than 300 K) sample. We review the known biases in the current sample of Kepler planet candidates relevant to evaluating planet population statistics with the current Kepler planet candidate sample.

Using Robotic Laser-Adaptive-Optics to Image 715 Kepler Exoplanet Candidates

Robotic Laser-Adaptive-Optics Imaging of 715 Kepler Exoplanet Candidates using Robo-AO

Authors:

Law et al

Abstract:

The Robo-AO Kepler Planetary Candidate Survey is designed to observe every Kepler planet candidate host star with laser adaptive optics imaging to search for blended nearby stars, which may be physically associated companions and/or responsible for transit false positives. In this paper we present the results from the 2012 observing season, searching for stars close to 715 representative Kepler planet candidate hosts. We find 53 companions, 44 of which are new discoveries. We detail the Robo-AO survey data reduction methods including a method of using the large ensemble of target observations as mutual point-spread-function references, along with a new automated companion-detection algorithm designed for large adaptive optics surveys. Our survey is sensitive to objects from 0.15" to 2.5" separation, with contrast ratios up to delta-m~6. We measure an overall nearby-star-probability for Kepler planet candidates of 7.4% +/- 1.0%, and calculate the effects of each detected nearby star on the Kepler-measured planetary radius. We discuss several KOIs of particular interest, including KOI-191 and KOI-1151, which are both multi-planet systems with detected stellar companions whose unusual planetary system architecture might be best explained if they are ''coincident multiple'' systems, with several transiting planets shared between the two stars. Finally, we detect 2.6-sigma evidence for less than 15d-period giant planets being 2-3 times more likely be found in wide stellar binaries than smaller close-in planets and all sizes of further-out planets.

KOI-268 has an exoplanet in the habitable zone.

Kepler-88c: an .62 Jupiter Mass Exoplanet Detected

Planets are so very tiny next to stars outside of the solar system, making it really hard to spot exoplanets unless they transit across the face of their star (or if they are very, very big). Often, astronomers can only infer the existence of planets by their effect on the host star or other stars.

That’s especially true of the curious case of Kepler-88 c, which researchers using the Kepler space telescope said was a possible planet due to its effects on the orbit of Kepler-88 b, a planet that goes across the host of its host star. European astronomers just confirmed the Kepler data using the SOPHIE spectrograph at France’s Haute-Provence Observatory.

It’s the first time scientists have successfully used a technique to independently verify a planet’s mass based on what was found from the transit timing variation, or how a planet’s orbit varies from what is expected as it goes across the face of its sun. That means TTV can likely be used as a strong method on its own, advocates say.

link.

Brown Dwarf W1906+40 Observed Flaring by Kepler

KEPLER MONITORING OF AN L DWARF I. THE PHOTOMETRIC PERIOD AND WHITE LIGHT FLARES

Authors:

Gizis et al.

Abstract:

We report on the results of 15 months of monitoring the nearby field L1 dwarf WISEP J190648.47+401106.8 (W1906+40) with the Kepler mission. Supporting observations with the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array and Gemini North Telescope reveal that the L dwarf is magnetically active, with quiescent radio and variable Hα emission. A preliminary trigonometric parallax shows that W1906+40 is at a distance of $16.35^{+0.36}_{-0.34}$ pc, and all observations are consistent with W1906+40 being an old disk star just above the hydrogen-burning limit. The star shows photometric variability with a period of 8.9 hr and an amplitude of 1.5%, with a consistent phase throughout the year. We infer a radius of 0.92 ± 0.07RJ and sin i greater than 0.57 from the observed period, luminosity (10–3.67 ± 0.03 L ☉), effective temperature (2300 ± 75 K), and vsin i (11.2 ± 2.2 km s–1). The light curve may be modeled with a single large, high latitude dark spot. Unlike many L-type brown dwarfs, there is no evidence of other variations at the gsim 2% level, either non-periodic or transient periodic, that mask the underlying rotation period. We suggest that the long-lived surface features may be due to starspots, but the possibility of cloud variations cannot be ruled out without further multi-wavelength observations. During the Gemini spectroscopy, we observed the most powerful flare ever seen on an L dwarf, with an estimated energy of ~1.6 × 1032 erg in white light emission. Using the Kepler data, we identify similar flares and estimate that white light flares with optical/ultraviolet energies of 1031 erg or more occur on W1906+40 as often as 1-2 times per month.

KOI-351: An Exoplanet System Like Ours, but Packed Within One AU

link.

Eight New Planets Emerge From Kepler Data in Four Star Systems

EIGHT PLANETS IN FOUR MULTI-PLANET SYSTEMS VIA TRANSIT TIMING VARIATIONS IN 1350 DAYS

Authors:

Yang Ming, Liu Hui-Gen, Zhang Hui, Yang Jia-Yi, and Zhou Ji-Lin

Abstract:

Analysis of the transit timing variations (TTVs) of candidate pairs near mean-motion resonances (MMRs) is an effective method to confirm planets. Hitherto, 68 planets in 34 multi-planet systems have been confirmed via TTVs. We analyze the TTVs of all candidates from the most recent Kepler data with a time span of upto about 1350 days (Q0-Q15). The anti-correlations of TTV signals and the mass upper limits of candidate pairs in the same system are calculated using an improved method suitable for long-period TTVs. If the false alarm probability of a candidate pair is less than 10–3 and the mass upper limit for each candidate is less than 13 M J, we confirm them as planets in the same system. Finally, eight planets in four multi-planet systems are confirmed via analysis of their TTVs. All of the four planet pairs are near first-order MMRs, including KOI-2672 near 2:1 MMR and KOI-1236, KOI-1563, and KOI-2038 near 3:2 MMR. Four planets have relatively long orbital periods (less than 35 days). KOI-2672.01 has an orbital period of 88.51658 days and a fit mass of 17 M ⊕. To date, it is the longest-period planet confirmed near a first-order MMR via TTVs.

Latest Kepler Orrery

22%: Census of Kepler Data Predicts Likelihood of Sun-like Stars Have Terrestrial Planets in the Habitable Zone

NASA's Kepler spacecraft, now crippled and its four-year mission at an end, nevertheless provided enough data to complete its mission objective: to determine how many of the 100 billion stars in our galaxy have potentially habitable planets.

Based on a statistical analysis of all the Kepler observations, University of California, Berkeley, and University of Hawaii, Manoa, astronomers now estimate that one in five stars like the sun have planets about the size of Earth and a surface temperature conducive to life.

"What this means is, when you look up at the thousands of stars in the night sky, the nearest sun-like star with an Earth-size planet in its habitable zone is probably only 12 light years away and can be seen with the naked eye. That is amazing," said UC Berkeley graduate student Erik Petigura, who led the analysis of the Kepler data.

"It's been nearly 20 years since the discovery of the first extrasolar planet around a normal star. Since then we have learned that most stars have planets of some size and that Earth-size planets are relatively common in close-in orbits that are too hot for life," said Andrew Howard, a former UC Berkeley post-doctoral fellow who is now on the faculty of the Institute for Astronomy at the University of Hawaii. "With this result we've come home, in a sense, by showing that planets like our Earth are relatively common throughout the Milky Way galaxy."

Petigura, Howard and Geoffrey Marcy, UC Berkeley professor of astronomy, will publish their analysis and findings online the week of Nov. 4 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.


[...]

What distinguishes the team's analysis from previous analyses of Kepler data is that they subjected Petigura's planet-finding algorithms to a battery of tests in order to measure how many habitable zone, Earth-size planets they missed. Petigura actually introduced fake planets into the Kepler data in order to determine which ones his software could detect and which it couldn't.

"What we're doing is taking a census of extrasolar planets, but we can't knock on every door. Only after injecting these fake planets and measuring how many we actually found, could we really pin down the number of real planets that we missed," Petigura said.

Accounting for missed planets, as well as the fact that only a small fraction of planets are oriented so that they cross in front of their host star as seen from Earth, allowed them to estimate that 22 percent of all sun-like stars in the galaxy have Earth-size planets in their habitable zones.

"The primary goal of the Kepler mission was to answer the question, When you look up in the night sky, what fraction of the stars that you see have Earth-size planets at lukewarm temperatures so that water would not be frozen into ice or vaporized into steam, but remain a liquid, because liquid water is now understood to be the prerequisite for life," Marcy said. "Until now, no one knew exactly how common potentially habitable planets were around Sun-like stars in the galaxy."

All of the potentially habitable planets found in their survey are around K stars, which are cooler and slightly smaller than the sun, Petigura said. But the team's analysis shows that the result for K stars can be extrapolated to G stars like the sun. Had Kepler survived for an extended mission, it would have obtained enough data to directly detect a handful of Earth-size planets in the habitable zones of G-type stars.

"If the stars in the Kepler field are representative of stars in the solar neighborhood, … then the nearest (Earth-size) planet is expected to orbit a star that is less than 12 light-years from Earth and can be seen by the unaided eye," the researchers wrote in their paper. "Future instrumentation to image and take spectra of these Earths need only observe a few dozen nearby stars to detect a sample of Earth-size planets residing in the habitable zones of their host stars."

In January, the team reported a similar analysis of Kepler data for scorched planets that orbit close to their stars. The new, more complete analysis shows that "nature makes about as many planets in hospitable orbits as in close-in orbits," Howard said.

 link.

pop sci link and link and link.

paper link.

KOI-351 Appears to Have Seven Exoplanets Within One AU (the Orbit of Earth)

A team of astrophysicists at the German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft und- Raumfahrt; DLR), together with German and other European colleagues, has discovered the most extensive planetary system to date. Seven planets circle the star KOI-351 – more than in other known planetary systems. They are arranged in a similar fashion to the eight planets in the Solar System, with small rocky planets close to the parent star and gas giant planets at greater distances. Although the planetary system around KOI-351 is packed together more tightly, it provides an interesting comparison to our cosmic home.

Important step in the search for a 'twin Solar System'

Astrophysicists around the world have been searching for a star system similar to our own for a long time. Now, the team led by Juan Cabrera, an astrophysicist at the DLR Institute of Planetary Research in Berlin-Adlershof has taken a major step in this direction. Three of the seven planets in orbit around the star KOI-351 were discovered in recent years, and have periods of 331, 211 and 60 days, similar to those of Earth, Venus and Mercury.

The planets discovered by Cabrera and his team are even closer to the star and have orbital periods of 7, 9, 92 and 125 days. The outermost planet orbits the star at a distance of about 150 million kilometres, or roughly one Astronomical Unit (AU), so the entire planetary system is compressed into a space corresponding to the distance between Earth and the Sun.

In the article published in the Astrophysical Journal, Juan Cabrera and his colleagues emphasise the similarities between KOI-351 and the Solar System: "No other planetary system shows such a similar 'architecture' to that of our cosmic home as does the planetary system around KOI-351," says Cabrera. "Just as in the Solar System, rocky planets with roughly the size of Earth are found close to the star, while, 'gas giants' similar to Jupiter and Saturn are found as you move away from the star."

"We cannot stress just how important this discovery is. It is a big step in the search for a 'twin' to the Solar System, and thus also in finding a second Earth," said Cabrera. Heike Rauer, head of the Extrasolar Planets and Atmospheres working group at the DLR Institute of Planetary Research and professor at the Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics at the University of Berlin, adds: "The discovery of this complex planetary system helps us to better understand the processes that give rise to such planetary systems." Tilman Spohn, Head of the DLR Institute of Planetary Research states that: "DLR is proud to have made a significant contribution to the discovery of new planetary systems."

Specially developed computer program enabled discovery

The development of a special computer algorithm enabled Juan Cabrera and his team to detect the four new planets around KOI-351. The DLR astrophysicist was able to filter out the light curves that reveal the 'transit' of a planet across its parent star from the Kepler measurements. A transit is inferred from the small, periodic dimming of the star's light as the planet crosses the star's disc. This technological development is likely to be crucial in the search for similar multiple systems using large data sets from future space telescopes. The discovery was confirmed shortly afterwards by a US group led by Joseph R. Schmitt of Yale University, by visual inspection of the light curves recorded by Kepler.

KOI is the abbreviation for 'Kepler Object of Interest', which means the star was observed by NASA's Kepler space telescope, between 2008 and 2013, and classified as a candidate for the existence of exoplanets. At present, KOI-351 is the star with the most extrasolar planets, or exoplanets for short. The star is 2500 light years away from Earth.

Unusual resonances between the planets

"The resonances of the planetary orbits are another interesting feature of this system," explains Szilárd Csizmadia, a member of the team led by Cabrera. Orbital resonance occurs when two or more orbiting bodies exert a regular, periodic gravitational influence on one another. "Resonances also play an important role in the Solar System; for example, the moons of Jupiter. So KOI-351 is a gold mine for all researchers investigating planetary formation and the stability of multi-body systems."

The resonances in the planetary system of KOI-351, however, greatly complicated the search for the planets. Due to the strong interaction between the planets, the signals sought by Juan Cabrera in the Kepler data were not strictly periodic, but showed strong variations in the orbital periods. Rudolf Dvorak of the University of Vienna highlights the planet KOI-351g as being particularly interesting: "The orbital period of planet g varies by about a day between consecutive transits during the observations. Disturbances of this kind have been noted previously, but so far only with maximum deviations of a few minutes."

link,

Increased Understanding of the Orbits of Multi Exoplanet Systems

DISK-PLANETS INTERACTIONS AND THE DIVERSITY OF PERIOD RATIOS IN KEPLER'S MULTI-PLANETARY SYSTEMS

Authors:

Clement Baruteau and John C. B. Papaloizou

Abstract:

The Kepler mission is dramatically increasing the number of planets known in multi-planetary systems. Many adjacent planets have orbital period ratios near resonant values, with a tendency to be larger than required for exact first-order mean-motion resonances. This feature has been shown to be a natural outcome of orbital circularization of resonant planetary pairs due to star-planet tidal interactions. However, this feature holds in multi-planetary systems with periods longer than 10 days, in which tidal circularization is unlikely to provide efficient divergent evolution of the planets' orbits to explain these orbital period ratios. Gravitational interactions between planets and their parent protoplanetary disk may instead provide efficient divergent evolution. For a planet pair embedded in a disk, we show that interactions between a planet and the wake of its companion can reverse convergent migration and significantly increase the period ratio from a near-resonant value. Divergent evolution due to wake-planet interactions is particularly efficient when at least one of the planets opens a partial gap around its orbit. This mechanism could help account for the diversity of period ratios in Kepler's multiple systems from super-Earth to sub-Jovian planets with periods greater than about 10 days. Diversity is also expected for pairs of planets massive enough to merge their gap. The efficiency of wake-planet interactions is then much reduced, but convergent migration may stall with a variety of period ratios depending on the density structure in the common gap. This is illustrated for the Kepler-46 system, for which we reproduce the period ratio of Kepler-46b and c.

Hunting for an ExoMoon Around Exoplanet Kepler-22b

THE HUNT FOR EXOMOONS WITH KEPLER (HEK). III. THE FIRST SEARCH FOR AN EXOMOON AROUND A HABITABLE-ZONE PLANET

Authors:

Kipping et al

Abstract:

Kepler-22b is the first transiting planet to have been detected in the habitable zone of its host star. At 2.4 R ⊕, Kepler-22b is too large to be considered an Earth analog, but should the planet host a moon large enough to maintain an atmosphere, then the Kepler-22 system may yet possess a telluric world. Aside from being within the habitable zone, the target is attractive due to the availability of previously measured precise radial velocities and low intrinsic photometric noise, which has also enabled asteroseismology studies of the star. For these reasons, Kepler-22b was selected as a target-of-opportunity by the "Hunt for Exomoons with Kepler" (HEK) project. In this work, we conduct a photodynamical search for an exomoon around Kepler-22b leveraging the transits, radial velocities, and asteroseismology plus several new tools developed by the HEK project to improve exomoon searches. We find no evidence for an exomoon around the planet and exclude moons of mass MS greater than 0.5 M ⊕ to 95% confidence. By signal injection and blind retrieval, we demonstrate that an Earth-like moon is easily detected for this planet even when the time-correlated noise of the data set is taken into account. We provide updated parameters for the planet Kepler-22b, including a revised mass of MP less than 53 M ⊕ to 95% confidence and an eccentricity of $0.13_{-0.13}^{+0.36}$ by exploiting Single-body Asterodensity Profiling. Finally, we show that Kepler-22b has a greater than 95% probability of being within the empirical habitable zone but a less than 5% probability of being within the conservative habitable zone.

Planet Hunters: Jupiter Sized Exoplanet and 20 More Candidates in the Habitable Zone

PLANET HUNTERS. V. A CONFIRMED JUPITER-SIZE PLANET IN THE HABITABLE ZONE AND 42 PLANET CANDIDATES FROM THE KEPLER ARCHIVE DATA*

Authors:

Wang et al. (astronomers are now trying to compete with particle physicists for the number of authors in a paper...)

Affiliations:

too many again

Abstract:

We report the latest Planet Hunter results, including PH2 b, a Jupiter-size (R PL = 10.12 ± 0.56 R ⊕) planet orbiting in the habitable zone of a solar-type star. PH2 b was elevated from candidate status when a series of false-positive tests yielded a 99.9% confidence level that transit events detected around the star KIC 12735740 had a planetary origin. Planet Hunter volunteers have also discovered 42 new planet candidates in the Kepler public archive data, of which 33 have at least 3 transits recorded. Most of these transit candidates have orbital periods longer than 100 days and 20 are potentially located in the habitable zones of their host stars. Nine candidates were detected with only two transit events and the prospective periods are longer than 400 days. The photometric models suggest that these objects have radii that range between those of Neptune and Jupiter. These detections nearly double the number of gas-giant planet candidates orbiting at habitable-zone distances. We conducted spectroscopic observations for nine of the brighter targets to improve the stellar parameters and we obtained adaptive optics imaging for four of the stars to search for blended background or foreground stars that could confuse our photometric modeling. We present an iterative analysis method to derive the stellar and planet properties and uncertainties by combining the available spectroscopic parameters, stellar evolution models, and transiting light curve parameters, weighted by the measurement errors. Planet Hunters is a citizen science project that crowd sources the assessment of NASA Kepler light curves. The discovery of these 43 planet candidates demonstrates the success of citizen scientists at identifying planet candidates, even in longer period orbits with only two or three transit events.

link to planet hunters' website.

New Estimate of the Life Time of Hability Zones

Habitable conditions on Earth will be possible for at least another 1.75 billion years – according to astrobiologists at the University of East Anglia.

Findings published today in the journal Astrobiology reveal the habitable lifetime of planet Earth – based on our distance from the sun and temperatures at which it is possible for the planet to have liquid water.

The research team looked to the stars for inspiration. Using recently discovered planets outside our solar system (exoplanets) as examples, they investigated the potential for these planets to host life.

The research was led by Andrew Rushby, from UEA's school of Environmental Sciences. He said: "We used the 'habitable zone' concept to make these estimates – this is the distance from a planet's star at which temperatures are conducive to having liquid water on the surface."

"We used stellar evolution models to estimate the end of a planet's habitable lifetime by determining when it will no longer be in the habitable zone. We estimate that Earth will cease to be habitable somewhere between 1.75 and 3.25 billion years from now. After this point, Earth will be in the 'hot zone' of the sun, with temperatures so high that the seas would evaporate. We would see a catastrophic and terminal extinction event for all life.

"Of course conditions for humans and other complex life will become impossible much sooner – and this is being accelerated by anthropogenic climate change. Humans would be in trouble with even a small increase in temperature, and near the end only microbes in niche environments would be able to endure the heat.

"Looking back a similar amount of time, we know that there was cellular life on earth. We had insects 400 million years ago, dinosaurs 300 million years ago and flowering plants 130 million years ago. Anatomically modern humans have only been around for the last 200,000 years – so you can see it takes a really long time for intelligent life to develop.

"The amount of habitable time on a planet is very important because it tells us about the potential for the evolution of complex life – which is likely to require a longer period of habitable conditions.

"Looking at habitability metrics is useful because it allows us to investigate the potential for other planets to host life, and understand the stage that life may be at elsewhere in the galaxy.

"Of course, much of evolution is down to luck, so this isn't concrete, but we know that complex, intelligent species like humans could not emerge after only a few million years because it took us 75 per cent of the entire habitable lifetime of this planet to evolve. We think it will probably be a similar story elsewhere."

Almost 1,000 planets outside our solar system have been identified by astronomers. The research team looked at some of these as examples, and studied the evolving nature of planetary habitability over astronomical and geological time.

"Interestingly, not many other predictions based on the habitable zone alone were available, which is why we decided to work on a method for this. Other scientists have used complex models to make estimates for the Earth alone, but these are not suitable for applying to other planets.

"We compared Earth to eight planets which are currently in their habitable phase, including Mars. We found that planets orbiting smaller mass stars tend to have longer habitable zone lifetimes.

"One of the planets that we applied our model to is Kepler 22b, which has a habitable lifetime of 4.3 to 6.1 billion years. Even more surprising is Gliese 581d which has a massive habitable lifetime of between 42.4 to 54.7 billion years. This planet may be warm and pleasant for 10 times the entire time that our solar system has existed!

link.

author's blog post on the subject.

paper link when I see it.