Modeling the Mantles of Icy Moons

Heat transport in the high-pressure ice mantle of large icy moons

Authors:

Choblet et al

Abstract:

While the existence of a buried ocean sandwiched between surface ice and high-pressure (HP) polymorphs of ice emerges as the most plausible structure for the hundreds-of-kilometers thick hydrospheres within large icy moons of the Solar System (Ganymede, Callisto, Titan), little is known about the thermal structure of the deep HP ice mantle and its dynamics, possibly involving melt production and extraction. This has major implications for the thermal history of these objects as well as on the habitability of their ocean as the HP ice mantle is presumed to limit chemical transport from the rock component to the ocean. Here, we describe 3D spherical simulations of subsolidus thermal convection tailored to the specific structure of the HP ice mantle of large icy moons. Melt production is monitored and melt transport is simplified by assuming instantaneous extraction to the ocean above. The two controlling parameters for these models are the rheology of ice VI and the heat flux from the rock core. Reasonable end-members are considered for both parameters as disagreement remains on the former (especially the pressure effect on viscosity) and as the latter is expected to vary significantly during the moon’s history. We show that the heat power produced by radioactive decay within the rock core is mainly transported through the HP ice mantle by melt extraction to the ocean, with most of the melt produced directly above the rock/water interface. While the average temperature in the bulk of the HP ice mantle is always relatively cool when compared to the value at the interface with the rock core (∼ 5 K above the value at the surface of the HP ice mantle), maximum temperatures at all depths are close to the melting point, often leading to the interconnection of a melt path via hot convective plume conduits throughout the HP ice mantle. Overall, we predict long periods of time during these moons’ history where water generated in contact with the rock core is transported to the above ocean.

Oxygen Levels may Have Never Crashed During the Mesozoic

A modeling case for high atmospheric oxygen concentrations during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic

Authors:

Mills et al

Abstract:

Changes in atmospheric oxygen concentration over Earth history are commonly related to the evolution of animals and plants. But there is no direct geochemical proxy for O2 levels, meaning that estimations rely heavily on modeling approaches. The results of such studies differ greatly, to the extent that today's atmospheric mixing ratio of 21% might be either the highest or lowest level during the past 200 m.y. Long-term oxygen sources, such as the burial in sediments of reduced carbon and sulfur species, are calculated in models by representation of nutrient cycling and estimation of productivity, or by isotope mass balance (IMB)—a technique in which burial rates are inferred in order to match known isotope records. Studies utilizing these different techniques produce conflicting estimates for paleoatmospheric O2, with nutrient-weathering models estimating concentrations close to, or above, that of the present day, and IMB models estimating low O2, especially during the Mesozoic. Here we re-assess the IMB technique using the COPSE biogeochemical model. IMB modelling is confirmed to be highly sensitive to assumed carbonate δ13C, and when this input is defined following recent compilations, predicted O2 is significantly higher and in reasonable agreement with that of non-IMB techniques. We conclude that there is no model-based support for low atmospheric oxygen concentrations during the past 200 m.y. High Mesozoic O2 is consistent with wildfire records and the development of plant fire adaptions, but links between O2 and mammal evolution appear more tenuous.

Was Venus Habitable for 2 Billion Years?

Venus may have had a shallow liquid-water ocean and habitable surface temperatures for up to 2 billion years of its early history, according to computer modeling of the planet's ancient climate by scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York.

The findings, published this week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, were obtained with a model similar to the type used to predict future climate change on Earth.

"Many of the same tools we use to model climate change on Earth can be adapted to study climates on other planets, both past and present," said Michael Way, a researcher at GISS and the paper's lead author. "These results show ancient Venus may have been a very different place than it is today."

Venus today is a hellish world. It has a crushing carbon dioxide atmosphere 90 times as thick as Earth's. There is almost no water vapor. Temperatures reach 864 degrees Fahrenheit (462 degrees Celsius) at its surface.

Scientists long have theorized that Venus formed out of ingredients similar to Earth's, but followed a different evolutionary path. Measurements by NASA's Pioneer mission to Venus in the 1980s first suggested Venus originally may have had an ocean. However, Venus is closer to the sun than Earth and receives far more sunlight. As a result, the planet's early ocean evaporated, water-vapor molecules were broken apart by ultraviolet radiation, and hydrogen escaped to space. With no water left on the surface, carbon dioxide built up in the atmosphere, leading to a so-called runaway greenhouse effect that created present conditions.

Previous studies have shown that how fast a planet spins on its axis affects whether it has a habitable climate. A day on Venus is 117 Earth days. Until recently, it was assumed that a thick atmosphere like that of modern Venus was required for the planet to have today's slow rotation rate. However, newer research has shown that a thin atmosphere like that of modern Earth could have produced the same result. That means an ancient Venus with an Earth-like atmosphere could have had the same rotation rate it has today.

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Comparing the Martian Winds With Models Using Dust Devils

Comparing wind directions inferred from Martian dust devil tracks analysis with those predicted by the Mars Climate Database

Authors:

Statella et al

Abstract:

We have calculated the prevailing dust devil tracks direction as a means of verifying the Mars Climate Database (MCD) predicted wind directions accuracy. For that purpose we have applied an automatic method based on morphological openings for inferring the prevailing tracks direction in a dataset comprising 200 Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) Narrow Angle (NA) and High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) images of the Martian surface, depicting regions in the Aeolis, Eridania, Noachis, Argyre and Hellas quadrangles. The prevailing local wind directions were calculated from the MCD predicted speeds for the WE and SN wind components. The results showed that the MCD may not be able to predict accurately the locally dominant wind direction near the surface. In addition, we confirm that the surface wind stress alone cannot produce dust lifting in the studied sites, since it never exceeds the threshold value of 0.0225 Nm−2 in the MCD.

Geospatial modeling approach to monument construction for Precolumbian Michigan

Geospatial modeling approach to monument construction using Michigan from A.D. 1000–1600 as a case study

Authors:

Howey et al

Abstract:

Building monuments was one way that past societies reconfigured their landscapes in response to shifting social and ecological factors. Understanding the connections between those factors and monument construction is critical, especially when multiple types of monuments were constructed across the same landscape. Geospatial technologies enable past cultural activities and environmental variables to be examined together at large scales. Many geospatial modeling approaches, however, are not designed for presence-only (occurrence) data, which can be limiting given that many archaeological site records are presence only. We use maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt), which works with presence-only data, to predict the distribution of monuments across large landscapes, and we analyze MaxEnt output to quantify the contributions of spatioenvironmental variables to predicted distributions. We apply our approach to co-occurring Late Precontact (ca. A.D. 1000–1600) monuments in Michigan: (i) mounds and (ii) earthwork enclosures. Many of these features have been destroyed by modern development, and therefore, we conducted archival research to develop our monument occurrence database. We modeled each monument type separately using the same input variables. Analyzing variable contribution to MaxEnt output, we show that mound and enclosure landscape suitability was driven by contrasting variables. Proximity to inland lakes was key to mound placement, and proximity to rivers was key to sacred enclosures. This juxtaposition suggests that mounds met local needs for resource procurement success, whereas enclosures filled broader regional needs for intergroup exchange and shared ritual. Our study shows how MaxEnt can be used to develop sophisticated models of past cultural processes, including monument building, with imperfect, limited, presence-only data.

Dust From the Kuiper Belt Produces Benzene in Titan's Atmosphere

Uptake of acetylene on cosmic dust and production of benzene in Titan's atmosphere

Authors:

Frankland et al

Abstract:

A low-temperature flow tube and ultra-high vacuum apparatus were used to explore the uptake and heterogeneous chemistry of acetylene (C2H2) on cosmic dust analogues over the temperature range encountered in Titan's atmosphere below 600 km. The uptake coefficient, γ, was measured at 181 K to be (1.6 ± 0.4) × 10-4, (1.9 ± 0.4) × 10−4 and (1.5 ± 0.4) × 10−4 for the uptake of C2H2 on Mg2SiO4, MgFeSiO4 and Fe2SiO4, respectively, indicating that γ is independent of Mg or Fe active sites. The uptake of C2H2 was also measured on SiO2 and SiC as analogues for meteoric smoke particles in Titan's atmosphere, but was found to be below the detection limit (γ < 6 × 10−8 and < 4 × 10-7, respectively). The rate of cyclo-trimerization of C2H2 to C6H6 was found to be 2.6 × 10-5 exp(-741/T) s−1, with an uncertainty ranging from ± 27 % at 115 K to ± 49 % at 181 K. A chemical ablation model was used to show that the bulk of cosmic dust particles (radius 0.02–10 µm) entering Titan's atmosphere do not ablate (< 1% mass loss through sputtering), thereby providing a significant surface for heterogeneous chemistry. A 1D model of dust sedimentation shows that the production of C6H6via uptake of C2H2 on cosmic dust, followed by cyclo-trimerization and desorption, is probably competitive with gas-phase production of C6H6 between 80 and 120 km.

Modeling glacial flow on and onto Pluto's Sputnik Planum

Modeling glacial flow on and onto Pluto's Sputnik Planum

Authors:

Umurhan et al

Abstract:

Observations of Pluto's surface made by the New Horizons spacecraft indicates present-day nitrogen ice glaciation in and around the basin known as Sputnik Planum. Motivated by these observations, we have developed an evolutionary glacial flow model of solid nitrogen ice taking into account its published thermophysical and rheologies properties. This model assumes that glacial ice layers flow laminarly and have low aspect ratios which permits a vertically integrated mathematical formulation. We assess the conditions for the validity of laminar nitrogen ice motion by revisiting the problem of the onset of solid-state buoyant convection of nitrogen ice for a variety of bottom thermal boundary conditions. Subject to uncertainties in nitrogen ice rheology, nitrogen ice layers are estimated to flow laminarly for thicknesses less than 400-1000 meters. The resulting mass-flux formulation for when the nitrogen ice flows as a laminar dry glacier is characterized by an Arrhenius-Glen functional form. The flow model developed is used here to qualitatively answer some questions motivated by observed glacial flow features found on Sputnik Planum. We find that the wavy transverse dark features found along the northern shoreline of Sputnik Planum may be a transitory imprint of shallow topography just beneath the ice surface suggesting the possibility that a major shoreward flow event happened relatively recently within the last few hundred years. Model results also support the interpretation that the prominent darkened features resembling flow lobes observed along the eastern shoreline of the Sputnik Planum basin may be a result of wet nitrogen glacial ice flowing into the basin from the pitted highlands of eastern Tombaugh Regio.

Simulating Europa's Water Plumes

DSMC simulation of Europa water vapor plumes

Authors:

Berg et al

Abstract:

A computational investigation of the physics of water vapor plumes on Europa was performed with a focus on characteristics relevant to observation and spacecraft mission operations. The direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method was used to model the plume expansion assuming a supersonic vent source. The structure of the plume was determined, including the number density, temperature, and velocity fields. The possibility of ice grain growth above the vent was considered and deemed probable for large (diameter > ∼20 m) vents at certain Mach numbers. Additionally, preexisting grains of three diameters (0.1, 1, 50 µm) were included and their trajectories examined. A preliminary study of photodissociation of H2O into OH and H was performed to demonstrate the behavior of daughter species. A set of vent parameters was evaluated including Mach number (Mach 2, 3, 5), reduced temperature as a proxy for flow energy loss to the region surrounding the vent, and mass flow rate. Plume behavior was relatively insensitive to these factors, with the notable exception of mass flow rate. With an assumed mass flow rate of ∼1000 kg/s, a canopy shock occurred and a maximum integrated line of sight column density of ∼1020 H2O molecules/m2 was calculated, comparing favorably with observation (Roth et al., 2014a).

Uranus evolution models with simple thermal boundary layers

Uranus evolution models with simple thermal boundary layers

Authors:

Nettelman et al

Abstract:

The strikingly low luminosity of Uranus (Teff ≃ Teq) constitutes a long-standing challenge to our understanding of Ice Giant planets. Here we present the first Uranus structure and evolution models that are constructed to agree with both the observed low luminosity and the gravity field data. Our models make use of modern ab initio equations of state at high pressures for the icy components water, methane, and ammonia. Proceeding step by step, we confirm that adiabatic models yield cooling times that are too long, even when uncertainties in the ice:rock ratio (I:R) are taken into account. We then argue that the transition between the ice/rock-rich interior and the H/He-rich outer envelope should be stably stratified. Therefore, we introduce a simple thermal boundary and adjust it to reproduce the low luminosity. Due to this thermal boundary, the deep interior of the Uranus models are up to 2–3 warmer than adiabatic models, necessitating the presence of rocks in the deep interior with a possible I:R of 1 × solar. Finally, we allow for an equilibrium evolution (Teff ≃ Teq) that begun prior to the present day, which would therefore no longer require the current era to be a ”special time” in Uranus’ evolution. In this scenario, the thermal boundary leads to more rapid cooling of the outer envelope. When Teff ≃ Teq is reached, a shallow, subadiabatic zone in the atmosphere begins to develop. Its depth is adjusted to meet the luminosity constraint. This work provides a simple foundation for future Ice Giant structure and evolution models, that can be improved by properly treating the heat and particle fluxes in the diffusive zones.

Modeling Enceladus' Jet Plumes

Controlled boiling on Enceladus. 1. Model of the vapor-driven jets

Authors:

Nakajima et al

Abstract:

Plumes of water vapor and ice particles have been observed from the so-called tiger stripes at the south polar terrain (SPT) of Saturn’s satellite, Enceladus. The observed high salinity (∼0.5–2%) of the ice particles in the plumes may indicate that the plumes originate from a subsurface liquid ocean. Additionally, the SPT is the source of strong infrared radiation (∼4.2 GW), which is especially intense near (within tens of meters) the tiger stripes. This could indicate that the radiation is associated with plume activity, but the connection remains unclear. Here we investigate the constraints that plume observations place on the widths of the cracks, the depth to the liquid-vapor interface, and the mechanisms controlling plume variability. We solve the fluid dynamics of the flow in the crack and the interaction between the flow and ice walls assuming that the flows of water vapor and ice particles originate from a few kilometers deep liquid ocean. For a crack with a uniform width, we find that our model could explain the observed vapor mass flow rate of the plumes when the crack width is 0.05–0.075 m. A wider crack is not favorable because it would produce a higher vapor mass flow rate than the observed value, but it may be allowed if there are some flows that do not reach the surface of Enceladus due to condensation onto the ice walls or the crack is significantly tortuous. The observed heat flow can be explained if the total crack length is approximately 1.7 × 500 km. A tapering crack (a crack which is ∼1 m wide at the bottom of the flow and sharply becomes 0.05–0.075 m at shallower depths) can also explain the observed vapor mass flow rate and heat flow. Widths of 1 m or more are necessary to avoid freezing at the liquid-vapor interface, as shown in our paired paper (Ingersoll and Nakajima [2016] Icarus). The observed intense heat flow along the tiger stripes can be explained by the latent heat release due to vapor condensation onto the ice walls near the surface. The resulting buildup of ice causes the vents to seal themselves on time scales less than a year. We also find that the ice to vapor ratio of the plumes is sensitive to the ice mass fraction at the bottom of the flow (liquid–vapor interface). We find that the total mass flow rate of the plumes becomes larger when the crack width is larger, which is consistent with the observation that the flow rate increases near the orbital apocenter, where the crack is expected to be widest.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate change since the Late Jurassic

Atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate change since the Late Jurassic (150 Ma) derived from a global carbon cycle model

Author:

Kashiwagi et al

Abstract:

A global carbon cycle model covering the Late Jurassic Period to Recent (150–0 Ma) with subaerial metamorphism and continental and oceanic hot spot volcanism was constructed. The model's results indicate that the OAE1a and Valanginian OAE (OAE: oceanic anoxic event) in the Cretaceous Period are related to increased atmospheric CO2 level due to hot spot volcanism. Furthermore, the model results based on high-resolution geochemical records demonstrate that decreases in CO2 associated with the termination of the OAE1a, OAE2, and perhaps the Valanginian OAE are attributable to a large amount of organic carbon burial. Moreover, the model results indicate that enhanced continental weathering and carbonate precipitation contributed to the decrease in atmospheric CO2 during the OAE1a period.

A comparison of the model results with proxy estimates of atmospheric CO2 indicates that CO2 degassings from the lithosphere and mantle, including those from subaerial metamorphism, partly contributed to high levels of atmospheric CO2 in the middle Cretaceous and the Eocene, but they are not sufficiently decisive to account for the suggested CO2 levels by the proxies. Differences in estimated CO2 between the model and the proxies in the middle Cretaceous can be explained by a complex evolution of the terrestrial plants from gymnosperms to angiosperms, and/or continental weathering assisted by arbuscular mycorrhizal and ectomycorrhizal fungi and a fluctuation of the climate sensitivity, which would have dynamically changed on geological time scales, whereas an increase in non-CO2 greenhouse gases could explain the CO2 difference in the Eocene warming.

Simulating the Atmosphere of the Martian Northern Hemisphere

The variability, structure and energy conversion of the northern hemisphere traveling waves simulated in a Mars general circulation model

Authors:

Wang et al

Abstract:

Investigations of the variability, structure and energetics of the m = 1−3 traveling waves in the northern hemisphere of Mars are conducted with the MarsWRF general circulation model. Using a simple, annually repeatable dust scenario, the model reproduces many general characteristics of the observed traveling waves. The simulated m = 1 and m = 3 traveling waves show large differences in terms of their structures and energetics. For each representative wave mode, the geopotential signature maximizes at a higher altitude than the temperature signature, and the wave energetics suggests a mixed baroclinic-barotropic nature. There is a large contrast in wave energetics between the near-surface and higher altitudes, as well as between the lower latitudes and higher latitudes at high altitudes. Both barotropic and baroclinic conversions can act as either sources or sinks of eddy kinetic energy. Band-pass filtered transient eddies exhibit strong zonal variations in eddy kinetic energy and various energy transfer terms. Transient eddies are mainly interacting with the time mean flow. However, there appear to be non-negligible wave-wave interactions associated with wave mode transitions. These interactions include those between traveling waves and thermal tides and those among traveling waves.

Modeling Titan's Upper Atmosphere

Examining the exobase approximation: DSMC models of Titan's upper atmosphere

Authors:

Tucker et al

Abstract:

Chamberlain ([1963] Planet. Space Sci., 11, 901–960) described the use of the exobase layer to determine escape from planetary atmospheres, below which it is assumed that molecular collisions maintain thermal equilibrium and above which collisions are deemed negligible. De La Haye et al. ([2007] Icarus., 191, 236–250) used this approximation to extract the energy deposition and non-thermal escape rates for Titan's atmosphere by fitting the Cassini Ion Neutral Mass Spectrometer (INMS) density data. De La Haye et al. assumed the gas distributions were composed of an enhanced population of super-thermal molecules (E >> kT) that could be described by a kappa energy distribution function (EDF), and they fit the data using the Liouville theorem. Here we fitted the data again, but we used the conventional form of the kappa EDF. The extracted kappa EDFs were then used with the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) technique (Bird [1994] Molecular Gas Dynamics and the Direct Simulation of Gas Flows) to evaluate the effect of collisions on the exospheric profiles. The INMS density data can be fit reasonably well with thermal and various non-thermal EDFs. However, the extracted energy deposition and escape rates are shown to depend significantly on the assumed exobase altitude, and the usefulness of such fits without directly modeling the collisions is unclear. Our DSMC results indicate that the kappa EDFs used in the Chamberlain approximation can lead to errors in determining the atmospheric temperature profiles and escape rates. Gas kinetic simulations are needed to accurately model measured exospheric density profiles, and to determine the altitude ranges where the Liouville method might be applicable.

A new Model for Enceladus' Structure

A 1-D evolutionary model for icy satellites, applied to Enceladus

Authors:

Malamud et al

Abstract:

We develop a long-term 1-D evolution model for icy satellites that couples multiple processes: water migration and differentiation, geochemical reactions and silicate phase transitions, compaction by self-gravity, and ablation. The model further considers the following energy sources and sinks: tidal heating, radiogenic heating, geochemical energy released by serpentinization or absorbed by mineral dehydration, gravitational energy and insolation, and heat transport by conduction, convection, and advection. We apply the model to Enceladus, by guessing the initial conditions that would render a structure compatible with present-day observations, assuming the initial structure to have been homogeneous. Assuming the satellite has been losing water continually along its evolution, we postulate that it was formed as a more massive, more icy and more porous satellite, and gradually transformed into its present day state due to sustained long-term tidal heating. We consider several initial compositions and evolution scenarios and follow the evolution for the age of the Solar System, testing the present day model results against the available observational constraints. Our model shows the present configuration to be differentiated into a pure icy mantle, several tens of km thick, overlying a rocky core, composed of dehydrated rock at the center and hydrated rock in the outer part. For Enceladus, it predicts a higher rock/ice mass ratio than previously assumed and a thinner ice mantle, compatible with recent estimates based on gravity field measurements. Although, obviously, the model cannot be used to explain local phenomena, it sheds light on the internal structure invoked in explanations of localized features and activities.

How the Forelimb of Triassic Cynodont Trucidocynodon riograndensis Worked

Functional morphology and biomechanics of the cynodont Trucidocynodon riograndensis from the Triassic of Southern Brazil: Pectoral girdle and forelimb

Authors:

Veiga De Oliveira et al

Abstract:

Non-mammalian cynodonts provide insights on several points about mammalian evolution, such as the postural change and locomotory advances within the group. Unfortunately, complete skeletons of Triassic cynodonts are not very common and where more complete specimens are found they can offer a global vision on some traits not available from partial specimens. This is the case of the cynodont Trucidocynodon riograndensis, from the Triassic of Brazil, that has its forelimbs and locomotory properties presented in this paper. The movements between interclavicle and clavicle must have been limited, as such as those occurring between the latter and the scapulocoracoid although the long acromion process of this should have permitted a greater degree of freedom. Some of the more significant movements were those on the shoulder joint, in which the maximum adduction should have been circa 35º relative to the parasagittal plane and the greater abduction circa 55º. The maximum adduction occurred when the humerus was in the more retracted position during stride and the variation in the adduction/abduction should have been significant to the limb posture during its recovery stroke. The long olecranon and the distal overlapping between radius and ulna suggest the predominance of simple flexion/extension on the forearm without significant pronation/supination. The poorly preserved hand suggests that Trucidocynodon could have evolved a slight semidigitigrad condition in its forelimbs. All these features places Trucidocynodon as an important actor on the evolution of the mammalian locomotory properties indicating that some features, as the possibility of greater humeral adduction, evolved early in cynodont lineage.

Simulating Titan's Methane Cycle

Simulating Titan’s methane cycle with the TitanWRF General Circulation Model

Authors:

Newman et al

Abstract:

Observations provide increasing evidence of a methane hydrological cycle on Titan. Earth-based and Cassini-based monitoring has produced data on the seasonal variation in cloud activity and location, with clouds being observed at increasingly low latitudes as Titan moved out of southern summer. Lakes are observed at high latitudes, with far larger lakes and greater areal coverage in the northern hemisphere, where some shorelines extend down as far as 50°N. Rainfall at some point in the past is suggested by the pattern of flow features on the surface at the Huygens landing site, while recent rainfall is suggested by surface change. As with the water cycle on Earth, the methane cycle on Titan is both impacted by tropospheric dynamics and likely able to impact this circulation via feedbacks. Here we use the 3D TitanWRF General Circulation Model (GCM) to simulate Titan’s methane cycle. In this initial work we use a simple large-scale condensation scheme with latent heat feedbacks and a finite surface reservoir of methane, and focus on large-scale dynamical interactions between the atmospheric circulation and methane, and how these impact seasonal changes and the long term (steady state) behavior of the methane cycle. We note five major conclusions: (1) Condensation and precipitation in the model is sporadic in nature, with interannual variability in its timing and location, but tends to occur in association with both (a) frequent strong polar upwelling during spring and summer in each hemisphere, and (b) the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a region of increased convergence and upwelling due to the seasonally shifting Hadley cells. (2) An active tropospheric methane cycle affects the stratospheric circulation, slightly weakening the stratospheric superrotation produced. (3) Latent heating feedback strongly influences surface and near-surface temperatures, narrowing the latitudinal range of the ITCZ, and changing the distribution – and generally weakening the strength – of upwelling events. (4) TitanWRF favors low latitude ‘cloudiness’ around northern spring equinox as the ITCZ moves from south to north across the equator, versus the opposite time of year. (5) TitanWRF produces drying of low and mid latitudes with net transport of surface methane to high latitudes, and shows persistent hemispheric asymmetry in the methane cycle such that the favored pole for surface methane is the one with winter occurring closest to perihelion.

The Predicted Ancestor of Modern Humans and Neandertals

Virtual ancestor reconstruction: Revealing the ancestor of modern humans and Neandertals

Authors:

Mounier et al

Abstract:

The timing and geographic origin of the common ancestor of modern humans and Neandertals remain controversial. A poor Pleistocene hominin fossil record and the evolutionary complexities introduced by dispersals and regionalisation of lineages have fuelled taxonomic uncertainty, while new ancient genomic data have raised completely new questions. Here, we use maximum likelihood and 3D geometric morphometric methods to predict possible morphologies of the last common ancestor of modern humans and Neandertals from a simplified, fully resolved phylogeny. We describe the fully rendered 3D shapes of the predicted ancestors of humans and Neandertals, and assess their similarity to individual fossils or populations of fossils of Pleistocene age. Our results support models of an Afro-European ancestral population in the Middle Pleistocene (Homo heidelbergensis sensu lato) and further predict an African origin for this ancestral population.

Including Plants' Acclimation to Changes in Temperature Could Significantly Improve Climate Models Accuracy

Including plants' acclimation to changes in temperature could significantly improve the accuracy of climate models, a Purdue University study shows.

Plants are the largest drivers of carbon fluxes between land and the atmosphere, taking up and releasing carbon dioxide through the processes of photosynthesis and respiration. The rates at which these processes occur are sensitive to temperature and gradually adjust over time in response to long-term temperature shifts, a phenomenon known as acclimation.

Jeffrey Dukes, professor of forestry and natural resources and biological sciences, and a team of researchers found that adding formulas for acclimation into climate change models more closely aligns their simulations of carbon exchange with those observed in nature. The accuracy of model projections of carbon flux in tropical forests improved by 36 percent when acclimation was included.

"We want climate models to be as accurate as possible and represent the world in the way we know it to work," Dukes said. "We found that incorporating acclimation into a model helped it represent the tropics much more accurately. This won't dramatically reshape our big-picture understanding of climate change, but it gives us a better idea of how certain regions of the world will respond."

Because carbon dioxide traps heat in the atmosphere, it's important to accurately capture plant carbon exchange rates, said Dukes, who is also director of the Purdue Climate Change Research Center housed in Discovery Park. Less carbon stored in plants and soil means more carbon is in the atmosphere, leading to a warmer planet.

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Madagascar's Climate at the end of the Age of Dinosaurs was Wetter Than Previously Thought, Less Seasonal

Madagascar's climate at the K/P boundary and its impact on the island's biotic suite

Authors:

Ohba et al

Abstract:

The K/P boundary, 66 Ma, was a critical time in the history of the planet's biota. On the island of Madagascar, few Late Cretaceous species survived the associated extinction, and distance from the various mainland sources then acted as a strong filter for the number of over-water arrivees. Reconstructing the climate of the early Paleogene is vital for understanding the environments to which new colonizers landed and established a toe-hold on the island. Beginning with a “global” air-sea-coupled climate model simulation using the land–sea distribution at 66 Ma, we used dynamical downscaling to construct a scenario for how the atmospheric and oceanic fluid envelopes washed over and around the Madagascar at the start of the Paleocene. Dynamical downscaling of the global model yields a climate model with much finer resolution. We used this method to reconstruct the habitats for known fossil localities from that general period, better understand the ecological diversity of plants and animals that have been hypothesized to have then been present, and evaluate hypotheses regarding the evolutionary history of lemurs—a vast clade of primates endemic to Madagascar whose last common ancestor dates to this time. Our results show an island with a climate notably different from that of today, but not nearly as arid as others have suggested: the spiny thicket biome did not exist; temperatures were lower; rainfall less seasonal.

New Study Suggests a 8 Degree C Rise in Land Temperatures by 2100

As world leaders hold climate talks in Paris, research shows that land surface temperatures may rise by an average of almost 8C by 2100, if significant efforts are not made to counteract climate change.

Such a rise would have a devastating impact on life on Earth. It would place billions of people at risk from extreme temperatures, flooding, regional drought, and food shortages.

The study calculated the likely effect of increasing atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases above pre-industrialisation amounts. It finds that if emissions continue to grow at current rates, with no significant action taken by society, then by 2100 global land temperatures will have increased by 7.9C, compared with 1750.

This finding lies at the very uppermost range of temperature rise as calculated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It also breaches the United Nations' safe limit of 2C, beyond which the UN says dangerous climate change can be expected.

Research at the University of Edinburgh first created a simple algorithm to determine the key factors shaping climate change and then estimated their likely impact on the world's land and ocean temperatures. The method is more direct and straightforward than that used by the IPCC, which uses sophisticated, but more opaque, computer models.

The study was based on historical temperatures and emissions data. It accounted for atmospheric pollution effects that have been cooling Earth by reflecting sunlight into space, and for the slow response time of the ocean.

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