Spain Begins Talks with Catalonian Secessionists

Acting Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will hold his first official meeting with Catalonia's pro-independence regional president, Carles Puigdemont, with talks likely to center on the region's finances although the secession issue is certain to surface.

Puigdemont took office in January, promising to push ahead with his coalition government's secession plans. Rajoy, who heads Spain's caretaker government since a Dec. 30 inconclusive election, is likely to reiterate his steadfast opposition to Catalonia's independence in Wednesday's meeting.

The independence drive has gathered force in recent years after Catalonia failed to win more financing concessions from Madrid.

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Catalonian Separatists Form Government

Catalonia's separatists on Saturday struck a last-minute agreement to form a new regional government that will work towards independence from Spain, with controversial secessionist leader Artur Mas stepping aside to seal the deal.

His decision brings an end to more than three months of deadlock between Mas' "Together for Yes" secessionist alliance and the more radical, far-left separatist CUP party that together hold a majority in the Catalan parliament.

"This is not an easy decision, but it is a coherent decision," Mas told a press conference, saying he did what was necessary to save the independence drive in the wealthy northeast region of 7.5 million.

"I am stepping aside and will not be standing as a Together for Yes candidate for the re-election of president of the regional government," Mas said, naming Girona mayor Carles Puigdemont as his replacement.

Together for Yes won 62 seats in the 135-seat parliament in regional elections in September -- but were unable to form a government with the CUP, which held a crucial extra 10 seats, due to bitter disagreement over Mas.

The leftist party refused to give Mas its backing, resenting the austerity measures he implemented and corruption scandals linked to his party.

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Leftists Blocked Independence Seeking Party From Forming Government in Catalonia

Efforts by the acting president of Spain's powerful northeastern Catalonia region to form a pro-independence regional government have been dealt another blow as the radical pro-secession CUP party reaffirmed its opposition to his candidacy.

Artur Mas heads the "Together for Yes" alliance that won 62 seats in the 135-seat regional parliament in September elections but, lacking a majority, he is seeking support from CUP, which has 10 seats.

CUP has voted against him twice and on Sunday its members decided to maintain the stance. They agreed to continue talks with Mas' alliance but called on it to present another candidate.

However, CUP leader Antonio Banos said Monday the party members' decision was not binding and that all options were still open.

The Catalan parliament has until Jan. 10 to form a government or call a new election. The pro-independence parties fear the independence drive would lose momentum if fresh regional elections were held.

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Britain, European Union Discussing Technicalities of Brexit

A European official says British Prime Minister David Cameron and European Council President Donald Tusk will meet Sunday night to discuss the technicalities of the process needed if the U.K. decides to exit the bloc in the next couple of years.

Following an EU summit on Turkey and the refugee crisis on Sunday afternoon, Cameron and Tusk will meet for pre-arranged talks to work out details of a so-called Brexit.

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Catalonia Pressing Ahead With Secession

The acting president of Spain's powerful northeastern Catalonia region says he will press ahead with efforts to form a pro-independence government despite having failed to garner sufficient support in two parliamentary votes so far.

Speaking almost two months after regional elections, Artur Mas said Tuesday it would be easy to give up now but it would be "irresponsible."

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British Leaders Threatening Exit From European Union Again

Britain's foreign secretary says the European Union must implement fundamental reform or British people would vote to leave the bloc in an upcoming referendum.

Philip Hammond told the BBC on Sunday that "the British people will not be fobbed off with a set of cosmetic alterations to the way the EU works" and that there must be "substantive legally-binding change" for Britons to vote to stay in the 28-nation bloc.

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So, the UK leaves the EU.  Scotland leaves the UK.  How fractal can we make the secession in the British Isles?  :)

However, Cameron says the Brits ought to be able to get what they want in changes to the EU so secession isn't necessary.

Great Leader of the Europeans, Merkel, has stated some sort of compromise is likely and possible to avert the Brexit.

Northeast Catalonian Regional Parliament has Voted for Secession by 2017

The regional parliament of northeastern Catalonia has approved a plan to set up road map for independence from Spain by 2017, in defiance of the central government.

All 72 separatist lawmakers -- the majority in the northeastern region's parliament -- voted for a resolution aimed at creating an independent republic by 2017.

The proposal was tabled by pro-secession lawmakers from the "Together for Yes" alliance and the extreme left-wing Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP). The groups together obtained a parliamentary majority in regional elections in September.

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Catalonian Separatists win Majority in Election, but Lack Unequivocal Secession Mandate

Parties pushing for independence from Spain won a majority of seats in Catalonia's regional Parliament in a ballot Sunday, but failed to secure more than 50 percent of the popular vote in an election they had hoped would give them a clear, unequivocal mandate for secession.

With 90 percent of the votes counted, the "Together for Yes" group of secessionist parties had 63 seats in the 135-member parliament, meaning they would need to join forces with the radical Popular Unity Candidacy party — that secured 10 seats — to be able to push regional legislation through.

However, together they only won 47.6 percent of the popular vote, meaning opponents to independence were in a majority.

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The Uncertainties of the Catalonian Secession Success and Implications

BENIGNO ROMERO, a Catalan taxi driver, reached coyly into his pocket and produced a key-ring bearing the horizontal gold-and-red striped flag of Spain. “I respect everyone else’s opinion. But if we get independence our pensions will go and this will be like Venezuela,” he said. Mr Romero’s worries reflect an increasingly bitter debate in this wealthy corner of north-east Spain as it prepares for elections that could bring a unilateral declaration of independence within 18 months.

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The vote is tomorrow.  yikes.

Salmond Says Second Scottish Independence Referendum Inevitable

Former Scottish nationalist leader Alex Salmond said Sunday that another referendum on independence from the United Kingdom was "inevitable" because of policies pursued by Prime Minister David Cameron's government in London.

"I think a second independence referendum is inevitable," Salmond told the BBC, although he would not say when.

Salmond resigned as leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) and first minister of the devolved government in Edinburgh after Scots voted "no" to independence by 55 to 45 percent in September.

But nationalist feeling has soared in Scotland since then, and in May's general election the SNP won 56 out of 59 Scottish seats in the House of Commons, making them the third largest party after the main opposition Labour party.

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Alternate History: be Glad for Those 89k Spoiled Ballots in 1995, Canada!

I've been working like crazy on my day job (wrapping it up) and the business.  I've taken some time to do some writing here and there.  About four of you get subjected to long writing bits which will, someday, come to public light.  However, between meetings and stitching back together supercomputers and negotiating the travails of the rocketry business, I've been working on crazy thoughts for this blog.  The quickies, I post PDQ (re UCLASS as the F-14 replacement, the MC Perry class, etc).  Some take a lot of work (what to do about the robopocalypse).  Some are in the middle (next year in nauvoo or the US actually built Orions for LeMay).  However, I did promise a return to the Robopocalypse and what to do about it.  I'm working on it, but its taking time.  Research can do that.  However, I wanted to return to an alternate history post in the mean time.

In 1995, the world nearly imploded.  Ok, a bit of an overstatement for most of the world, it could have been the apocalypse for Canada.  As anyone who was half way aware of the world around us knows, Quebec had a referendum to seek independence from Canada.  It failed by an incredibly small margin and unlike our own inverse equivalent, Puerto Rico, the independence movement has since collapsed.

This is how the voting actually went.  The margin was 58k votes and there were 86k votes considered invalid.  Talk about what could have been a Bush-Gore moment!

So, what if.

Let's say for the moment 90% of the invalid votes were actually valid and 75% of those were pro Independence.  Even with the 25% of those being pro Unity, the total margin which Unity stays ahead is now down to 19k.  For the rest of the vote, let's assume another .6% of the electorate shows up.  We'll assume something stupid happened at the Unity Rally just days before and the secessionists exploited it.   And, lo, we get a margin of 11k votes for Quebec Separatism.

Independent Quebec in Purple

So what happens?  Immediately, probably not a lot, to be honest.  This is Canada we're talking about, not the US and the Slaver's Revolt.  There will be tense moments, but I doubt there will be fighting.  In fact, what's likely to happen is Canada will attempt to make concessions and with those concessions request a new referendum.  The Quebecker are likely to not want to repeat the vote.  They'll feel they have their victory and, damnit, they're moving ahead.  My guess is the dance lasts 3 1/2 years, from 1995 to early 1999.  The Canadians then shift gears when the Quebecois are getting set to declare full independence on January 1st, 2000. 

Through the treaty, the Canadians keep Nord-de-Quebec and the scattered southern bits which voted 'No.'  In exchange, the Quebecois get Montreal and Canadian support with the US with regards to joining NAFTA (Clinton had been planning on stalling whether or not to let an independent Quebec join) and NATO.

Nord-du-Quebec would probably rename itself.  Historically, it had been called Ungava, so let's use that.  It's admitted as a province of the rump Canada.  The eastern most bits of loyalist Quebec get absorbed by New Brunswick the southern most by Ontario with a possible land bridge negotiated by Canada to link the eastern of the two southern enclaves. 

Bouchard becomes PM of Quebec and stays there until 2008, when he retires.  The economy isn't great, but it survives.

Canada takes a hit, economically and in confidence.  Though there are those who state this is actually for the better.  Rather than growth rates of 1.7, 4.3, 4.1 and 5.0 percent from 1996 to 1999, we end up seeing a growth of far more modest growth of half that for 1997 through 1999.  Then in 2000, Canada takes a hit from 15 to 20% of its economy declaring independence.  The next four years are probably going to modest growth.

In all likelihood, this is the 'end' of the story.  There's an independent Quebec which has a troublesome relationship with Canada and, if Bush still wins in 2000, may have a pro-US stance, and may get that reciprocated. You might even see a Quebec battalion participating in Iraq.

However, we can make this worse for Canada.  

Unbeknownst to the world, except a few western Canadian capitals and perhaps the NSA, the western provinces, with Saskatchewan taking the lead, considered their options if Quebec declared independence.   One of those options was to form their own independent country.  Another might have been to join the US.  

Yup.  That deserves a blink tag.

Interestingly, the Maritime Provinces were openly considering joining the US.  If the three western provinces are going to negotiate with the US to join, then the Maritimes are likely to as well.  We have three provinces negotiating with the Washington while Ottawa is trying to keep Quebec in and the Yankees out.  For the sake of timing, let's say the Western Provinces and the Maritimes wait through 1997 before they commit treason, ahem, contract Washington.  Both are going to request they become full states and definitely none of that territory crap. 

Clinton is going to jump on this.  This could be his legacy: adding 6 more states to the US voluntarily.  woo!  However, his relationship with Gingrich and the Republicans is going to make this messy.  On the flipside, the negotiations would not happen over night.  The Lewinsky stupidity will have blown over by the time the negotiations are done.  I suspect he'd submit the treaty to Congress in the beginning of  2000.

Because its an election year, this is going to get debated to death and become an election issue.  Republicans in the Senate are going to have a hard time with this one.  At least 5 of the new states are going to be really blue and while Alberta might be the Canadian Texas, its going to be more purple than blue.  It might even..hiss! taint the Republican Party.  The Democrats are going to see this as the way to blue the nation, or at least the Congress and Senate for a long time to come.

There's a slim chance that if Bush comes out against the treaty or at least neutral it might push Gore clearly over the top.  It might also influence one or more races in the Senate; however, the only place it might have made a difference as far as I can tell is in the Virginia race (robb v allen)...but doubtful then.  The best case scenario would be Gore's Senate would have 51 Democrats.  He needs 67 to pass a treaty, so either he's going to go do some horse trading or ask help from friends across the aisle or some combination. 

The treaty may then get postponed until 2006 based on the elections in the Senate since.  However, it runs the risk of getting scuttled by the Canadians then.  Why wait 7 years?!  If its going to happen, it'll need to be between 2000 and 2002.  So let's say he pulls it off.

Canada in Red. Quebec in Purple. The US in White.

In 2004, 6 new states are added.  The Senate now has 62 Senators and the House, until the next Census, has 12 new Congress critters.  The US gets a democratic Senate for a long, long time.  Or it derails the Tea Party.  This will either force the Republicans into falling into being a regional party faster or to change their politics.

Knock-on effects.  Canada is purely an Atlantic and Arctic nation.  Her diplomacy will change.  She may reach out to the EU then.  The portion of Quebec which voted against seceding from Canada countersecedes again from New Brunswick when it publicly states its trying to join the US.  What this new enclave is called, I have no idea (Saint Lawrence?  Laurentia?).  Ungava and this new enclave are two new provinces.  This brings the total of Canada 5 provinces and 3 territories.  Canada becomes even more Ontario centric.

However, this all assumes Manitoba doesn't come along for the ride with the three western provinces.  If she does, then the outcome for Canada could be worse.  I can see a remote possibility Nunavut, Yukon, the NW Territories, Ungava (maybe) and Greenland might make common cause.  It'd be an odd and interesting country to arise if so.  And that wildly unlikely thing happened, you'd see Ungava split again and Ontario, Southern Ungava (or whatever the Cree name would be), a land corridor to Labrador & New Foundland plus their new enclave in ex Quebec being all that's left of Canada: that'd do really weird things to its economy...and make them even more friendly to Americans (note sarcasm tag).

So, Canada, be glad there were not 60k more votes for Quebec.  America, lament the chance to completely screw with the world order.  again.  Quebec...well, most of you are probably more Canadian now than ever.  So be glad. 

Ukraine: The Pattern Burns

The fighting is getting more intense.  The top video is the armoured units of the Ukrainian army entering Kransy Limon: KL has been liberated from the LGM.  The second is from Slavyansk.

Border guards have surrendered or retreated or abandoned three border posts in the Lugansk region.  There was a major battle in the Donetsk region at one border post.  The remainder have been closed to traffic.

Even though there is progress by the Ukrainians, its pretty obvious they are stretched thin.  Its also obvious they are going to need years of work to get them into top form.  Its interesting to contrast my brother's tails of the ukrainian army in iraq with the videos and battles I see online and hear about.

There is a report that one of the leaders of the LGM is executing Ukrainian officers when they are captured.

Ukraine: Critcal Crossroads

Ukraine made progress with Europe.  They signed into law several necessary steps for visa free travel!  Huzzah!  They also signed the deal for $1.37 billion worth of aid. 

Mariupol seems to have been retaken and the Little Green Men driven out.

It appears - and this can change at any moment - the Ukrainians are successfully containing the insurgency to the Donbass.

Unfortunately, things have not gone well or, perhaps wisely, otherwise.

A clash outside of Slavyansk left 7 Ukrainian soldiers dead and six more badly wounded.

Also in Slavyansk, the LGM are seizing apartments.

Debaltsevo, smack between Lugansk and Donetsk on the M03 highway, has been seized.  I'd expect Krasnyi Luch to be next.  The M03, as I have said before, is something to watch.

In Gorlovka, the Russians (and, yes, they are Russians) are running amok and pillaging individual houses.  This is from personal sources in the area.  The home invasions also include murdering the occupants and raping as well.  

Inexplicably, the Ukrainians - rumor has it - have shut off the water to Crimea.  This is provided in large part from the mainland.  I cannot fathom what they hope to accomplish.  A tit for tat for the gas which is about to be shut off?

The Europeans have placed more sanctions on Russia.

On the 'huh' side, Biden's son has joined the board of directors for NAFTOGAZ.  ?!?!

The Russians have retaliated at the Americans: the rocket engines which we have been using in the Atlas V and Antares rockets since the 1990s can no longer be sold to the US.  GPS ground stations will be shut down in Russia unless GLONASS ground stations will be allowed in the US.  The Russians will no longer participate in the international space station after 2020.  The implied threat is they will withdraw sooner and cut the Americans and possibly the rest of world off from the space station.

Ukraine: Stones for the Avalanche

The situation has not visibly progressed much.

The referendum was called a farce by the West.  Russia, of course, recognized it.  The LGM are not asking for the Russians to come in and annex them.   Russia has not, as of this writing, made a move.

Ukraine has stated it will not accept the referendum and calls it an illegal farce.  It has stated it will use force if necessary.

Russia has called for a dialog for the east and west.  This has been ignored...except...

The Russians are now stating they are cutting off the gas on June 3rd without payment.  Ukraine says they will not pay the new price.  Looks like the lights are going to go out.  or at least the gas is getting shut off.

Despite claims otherwise, the Russians have NOT pulled back their troops from the Ukrainian border whatsoever. 

There have been more clashes, but other than one near Slavyansk, there seems to have been little which is dramatic.

Europe has imposed more sanctions.  

The Mariupol police chief was NOT hung despite information stating so.  It was some other poor SOB.

These are but stones and stones start the avalanche.  And avalanches are devastating.

Ukraine: The Abyss Gapes

The Abyss awaits.

That's simply the best way to put it.

Mariupol has descended into chaos.  The police chief was captured and hung by the LGM.  There are battles between Ukrainian troops and the LGM.  Multiple city buildings have been burned.

There have been multiple attempts at breakouts from Slavyansk.  Both sides are urging residents to leave.  An assault is imminent. 

The Little Green Men, their levees and allies held the referendum in the Donbass and Lugansk.  The claim is that 89% of the ballots were in support of secession and joining Russia.  The claim was 75% of people participated.  The ballots were supposedly counted - 5 million potentially! - in one hour.  There were several cars caught by the Ukrainian police full of pre filled ballots.  There was a polling station set up in MOSCOW!  

 Someone - both sides claim the other - opened fire at one of the polling stations.  Multiple people were killed.

Let's see if the Russians recognize the vote.  No one else seems to have.

The Russian Air Force apparently was ordered to provoke the Ukrainians. 

The Ukrainian counter offensive seems to have stalled.

At the moment, it seems civil war is imminent.

I was asked by my friend Noel why I was supporting, even urging, a military response to the situation in Ukraine.  Wouldn't it be better to try a peaceful response and minimize the possible damage?  And minimize the loss of life?  Considering my ties to the Donbass, I must urge a military response, even with the potential damage and loss of life.

For one, I know the culture and the people well enough I can state, honestly, if the Ukrainians do not respond, strongly, to the LGM, the locals will, over time, lose what support they have for Kiev.  They will not come to support the LGM, but they will not oppose them either: why risk your life for a wimp?  

Secondly, the show of strength is important for dealing with Moscow.  If Moscow thinks this is a cake walk, they will be in the Donbass in a heart beat.  If there might be a further cost, they will stop to consider and perhaps delay, which will buy Ukraine time.

Thirdly, how could I not urge them to defend their country?  After all, if China pulled that stunt on California, or at least San Francisco and the Peninsula, perhaps Seattle, Noel would not be asking that question.  Despite the damage done, there are some things which are worth fighting, even dying for.

They Ought to Have Called Themselves 'East Colorado'

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