In the Robopocalypse, the Job Mortgages You!

Ever since the first vision of a robot appeared on the horizon of mankind, humans have feared that automation will replace the workforce in our dystopian future.

There typically follows a period of reassurance, in which we are compelled to believe that this will be a good thing, and that robots could actually liberate us from the drudgery of daily toil and free us for more enjoyable, cerebral pursuits. Futurist Jerry Kaplan, 63, is among those optimists. He estimates that 90% of Americans will lose their jobs to robots and we should all be happy about it.

“If we can program machines to read x-rays and write news stories, all the better. I say good riddance,” Kaplan said. “Get another job!”
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Gulp.

Less discussed is the observation that inequality will be “a dark cloud” over this period of robotic rule. The robots, Kaplan admitted, will be owned by the rich. “The benefits of automation naturally accrue to those who can invest in the new systems, and that’s the people with the money. And why not? Of course they’re reaping the rewards,” he said.

“We don’t have to steal from the rich to give to the poor. We need to find ways to give incentives to entrepreneurs.”

One possible solution to 90% unemployment would be job mortgages, so that people who are displaced by robots can take out loans toward future earnings in unknown jobs. “People should be able to learn new skills by borrowing against future earnings capacity,” he said.

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Jelly Fish Inspired Oceanscrapers

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The British Vision of Warfare in 2035

Future British military operations will require more stand-off or remotely-operated weapons to counter a spread of advanced technologies among its enemies that will make today's conflicts appear "relatively simple" by comparison, according to a Ministry of Defence research paper.

“The proliferation of technology and advanced weapons systems will provide many more states with effective anti-access and area denial capabilities that will impact on operations in every environment," says the MoD in its Future Operating Environment 2035 document.

This will demand the "innovative use" of cyber, precision and stand-off weapons, it says, "as well as stealth, layered defence and automated systems".

“Operations conducted thus far will look relatively simple compared to some of those required in the future operating environment of 2035."

As technological advances make high-altitude airspace more accessible, this is “blurring further the distinction between air and space”. Although there is presently no agreement on how far airspace extends vertically, it is typically considered that it is as high as aircraft can fly. Future aircraft will be able to reach ever higher altitudes, adding "ambiguity" to these borders, it says, potentially provoking confrontation.

“These technologies may stretch our ability to police international airspace and defend our sovereign territory from the air,” it adds.

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A bit old but Good Tom Scott: When Facebook Resurrected the Dead

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30 Years of the Future

A Thought Experiment: the Hacking of Rome (or America Loses a Cyberwar)

This is not a prediction for the future, simply a thought experiment to tell a story of what might be. Thinking about how American power and influence might decline is not a slight to the United States. It is a strength. We are not a people blinded by American hubris, but instead are willing to honestly analyze the negative what-ifs while working toward the positive ones.

When discussing the fall of the United States, the initial reaction is to think of a dramatic collapse. Things such as losing World War III in an enormous battle or an economic collapse making the Great Depression look like a little setback could make for an engaging movie, but reality does not have to entertain – it simply has to be.

This is fiction, not a prediction, but hopefully it makes us think.

And Now for our Story…

The United States is powerless. Though our economy is still intact for the moment, our ability to influence events on the world stage and protect our national interests is gone. We try to turn to our allies for help, but even our oldest friends recognize that the balance of power has shifted and begin to reshape their alliances to look out for their best interests. We are alone, afraid, and powerless in a very complicated world. How did we get here?

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2014 is not Like 1914?

It has become fashionable, on the eve of the centennial of the outbreak of World War One, to ask, or worry about, whether it could all happen again. This vague sense of anxiety – this sense of how good we have it now, and how it could all be gone tomorrow – is perhaps fitting, given that it has become an accepted (if debatable) point of history that neither the decision-makers nor the publics of the various European powers expected a prolonged and civilization-devastating war. Such anxiety has a long pedigree: Kipling, writing a poem for Queen Victoria’s Diamond Jubilee a mere decade and a half before the war broke out, chose to quietly shelve his now-infamous imperialist tribute, “The White Man’s Burden,” for another occasion, in favor of publishing the more sombre and (at the time) jarring “Recessional,” which reminded its reader that all glory is fleeting and God alone is permanent (“Far-called, our navies melt away/On dune and headland sinks the fire/Lo, all our pomp of yesterday/Is one with Nineveh and Tyre…”).

In fact, the war’s outbreak and subsequent course probably were predictable in advance, and if anything reflected what we would now call a failure of analysis, either on the part of the leaders of the European states, or on the part of their people.

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Don't Giggle: The Economics of Star Trek

I promise this is about Star Trek. Sort of. Bear with me a moment.

I’ve been reading a lot about robots lately. When I read about robots, and the future, I can’t help but think about it in economic terms. And that inevitably turns my mind to the branch of economics called post scarcity economics. Traditional economics, of course, deals with the efficient allocation of inherently scarce materials. Post scarcity economics deals with the economics of economies that are no longer constrained by scarcity of materials — food, energy, shelter, etc.

The thing that never sits quite right with post scarcity economics, though, at least the very little that I’ve read, is that it’s always sort of an all or nothing affair: you either don’t have enough of anything or you have enough of everything. Thinking of this as a mental exercise is kind of fun, I think, but in reality it seems to me that getting from point A — a scarcity economy — to point B — post scarcity — is going to be a long, complicated journey as some things become more abundant in some places, while other things are still scarce.

What is needed is some sort of interim-, or proto-post scarcity economics.

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The Plans and Dreams of the African Union

High-speed railways, a common language, diplomatic clout, cutting-edge fashion and leadership in space exploration: this was the vision of a transformed Africa laid out before a continental summit on Thursday.

In a speech to the African Union, the 54-member bloc's chief Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma provided a foresight of what Africa could be like in just 50 years' time, providing some welcome distraction to an agenda dominated by conflict.

Written as a message to a hypothetical friend in 2063, Dlamini-Zuma spoke of a "grand reality" where a new Confederation of African States has replaced the AU.

"At the beginning of the 21st century, we used to get irritated with foreigners when they treated Africa as one country: as if we were not a continent of over a billion people and 55 sovereign states! But, the advancing global trend towards regional blocks, reminded us that integration and unity is the only way for Africa to leverage its competitive advantage," she said.

"We did not realise our power, but instead relied on donors, that we euphemistically called partners," she said.

She spoke of a future Africa with "regional manufacturing hubs" in Congo, Angola and Zambia, as well as "Silicon valleys" in Rwanda, Egypt, Nigeria and Kenya, and of equal access for women to education and business ownership.

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CEBR Projections: China's Ascent to Largest Economy Postponed Until 2028 at Least

America's economy will stay atop the world for at least another 14 years.

A new study says China won't eclipse the U.S. economy until 2028, much later than some analysts have suggested.

According to the London-based economic consultancy, the Centre for Economics and Business Research, China's rise to the world's number one economy will be much slower than previously thought, due to both strength in the U.S. economy and the relative slowdown in China's domestic economy.

"China's spectacular economic development has continued and although the increasing maturity of its economy and relatively unfavorable demographics mean that growth will inevitably slow, we still expect China to overtake the U.S. to become the world's largest economy in 2028 for the first time since 1890...This is later than some analysts have suggested," the CEBR analysts added.

According to CEBR, China's gross domestic product will grow to $33,513 billion in 2028, up from $8,939 billion in 2013.

India, meanwhile, is set to become the world's number three economy by 2028, overtaking Japan much sooner than the CEBR had previously expected.

CEBR said Japan's position in the league table had been affected by its weakening currency, which has declined roughly 20 percent against the dollar this year, and is likely to bring Japan's position down in gross domestic product terms value.

"In addition [to the weak yen] Japan's demographics are uniquely unfavorable and the combination leads to Japan losing its position as the world's third largest economy to India in 2028," added the CEBR analysts.

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African Economic Growth Expected to be 6% in 2014

Sub-Saharan Africa's economic growth is expected to increase to six percent in 2014, from five percent this year, supported by investment in infrastructure and production capacity, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday.

The IMF had predicted in May that the region would grow 5.7 percent this year and 6.1 percent in 2014.

It said the slight downward revisions were due mainly to weaker global economic conditions, while budget delays in oil producer Angola and oil theft in Africa's top crude exporter Nigeria also hurt growth.

Inflation on the continent is expected to be less than six percent next year, its third year of decline due to benign prospects for food prices and the continuation of prudent monetary policies, the IMF said.

It expects growth to pick up next year.

"The improvement relative to 2013 reflects higher global growth, especially in Europe, and other expected favorable domestic conditions," the IMF said in its regional report, giving Nigeria's electricity reforms and hopes of improved oil output there as an example.

"The main factor behind the continuing underlying growth in most of the region is ... strong domestic demand, especially associated with investment in infrastructure and export capacity in many countries."

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Africa's Next Boom

23andme's Patent: Are My Children the Last Generation Not to be "Genetically" Engineered?

As described in a patent recently granted by the United States Patent Office, consumer genomics company 23andMe has developed a system for helping prospective parents choose the traits of their offspring, from disease risk to hair color. Put another way, it’s a designer baby-making system.

The company says it does not intend to use the technology this way. “When we originally introduced the tool and filed the patent there was some thinking the feature could have applications for fertility clinics,” said Catherine Afarian, a 23andMe spokeswoman. “But we’ve never pursued the idea, and have no plans to do so.”

Filed in December 2008, the patent — number 8543339, “Gamete donor selection based on genetic calculations” — sounds like something out of Gattaca, the 1997 movie that came to symbolize tensions between self-determination and biologically ordained fate.

The patent describes a technology that would take a customer’s preferences for a child’s traits, compute the likely genomic outcomes of combinations between a customer’s sperm or egg and other people’s sex cells, and describe which potential reproductive matches would most likely produce the desired baby.

Among the traits listed in the application as examples of possible choice are: height, weight, hair color, risks of colorectal cancer and congenital heart defects, expected life span, expected lifetime health care costs, and athleticism. The company, which has about 400,000 customers, offers genomic analysis of more than 240 traits altogether, from Alzheimer’s disease risk to breast shape and memory. Additional traits from this longer list could presumably be used the same way.

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I am actually not against genetically engineering our offspring.  There are NUMEROUS defects which could be edited out relatively easily if caught early on (cystic fibrosis, anyone?).  However, the difficulties and dangers need to be approached carefully for traits which are multigene.  Those have complications past a single trait. 

Krugman: China's Economy is in Deep Trouble

All economic data are best viewed as a peculiarly boring genre of science fiction, but Chinese data are even more fictional than most. Add a secretive government, a controlled press, and the sheer size of the country, and it’s harder to figure out what’s really happening in China than it is in any other major economy.

Yet the signs are now unmistakable: China is in big trouble. We’re not talking about some minor setback along the way, but something more fundamental. The country’s whole way of doing business, the economic system that has driven three decades of incredible growth, has reached its limits. You could say that the Chinese model is about to hit its Great Wall, and the only question now is just how bad the crash will be.

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