The 2000th Post: Annexing Mexico

An Introduction:

I rather like the idea of the US becoming a more integrated, federal from the get-go EU. In some ways it already is one and I have come across many texts as I have been reading that point out in relative terms that how decentralized the US is government wise. There are many countries that would definitely benefit from integration into the US and it would benefit the US by injecting new blood, challenges, and opportunities. It would also solve a nontrivial amount of issues for ourselves. One of those would be the 'fixing', permanently, our issues with Mexico.

I have to admit that annexing Mexico has been a long term hobby horse of mine: I have posted about the idea before. I had planned on posting more on the idea, but have been distracted with other things. Writing posts on adding other countries in a manner other than RAHRAH! EAT THEM! YUM! takes a lot of work and there's a long 1/4 finished post on the subject that needs a lot more work before even as much as is written ever sees the light of the blogosphere! Or is that the blight of the blogosphere?! ;)

For many reasons, I think it would be a good idea to undertake the annexation, not the least of which is that we completely solve that southern border thing. So long as we annex nations with the intent to make them states within a generation and do not put them into the bullshit category of 'unincorporated territory' (see Puerto Rico, Guam, Northern Marianas, etc's status ), I think this is a doable and even close to ideal act.

Actually, after I have been pondering it for the past year, I think annexing Mexico would be the third nation on the list. Canada is actually the zero-th, but I am not going to go over that right now, so relax Randy and James...but not too much. My annexationist taste buds are still longing to munch on some Canadian Bacon. ;) Because of the recent Absolut Vodka ad, I am going to walk through a scenario, perhaps my preferred scenario at the moment of what would happen given annexing Mexico. This is my so-called retaliation post I joked about. However the post itself is not a joke.

Let us consider that as I pointed out in the previous post, a recent poll found that 60% of all Mexicans would like to move to the US. If the midway figures are close to correct about the number of illegal immigrants of Mexican origin are correct, 10% of Mexico's population is already here in the States. That's a whopping 70% of the population that wants to live or is living in America. Convince another 5% that they ought to join up and we're in business. The harder sell would actually be on the northern side of the border. However, to accomplish that would take a lot different sort of work. The idea is plausible, if not terribly likely at this point unless someone convincing and prestigious were to take up the cause. Lone bloggers hardly count. ;)

What Would Will Do?

Assuming that the referendum on annexation passed in Mexico and the US Senate likewise accepted the treaty, what would I want the annexation treaty to look like? After all, the mechanics of annexation and granting of statehood (statehoods? Is that even an Anglically correct word?) to Mexico is really, really important. After all, given that crazy stupid unincorporated territory status, Mexicans could find themselves annexed, noncitizens (Yes, we have American Nationals rather than only Citizens for status of people born within the United States), and unable to immigrate. That would be detestable. So what would I do?

First off, I would make sure that Mexico was an incorporated territory with a time table for each Mexican state (or groupings of states) to evolve from a territory to an American state. None would take longer than 25 years after annexation. The first state that would be transferred from territory status to statehood would be Greater Mexico - see below - five years after annexation (Veracruz and Jalisco probably next and then the northern tier of Mexican states). The idea would be to transform one or two territories into states each year thereafter. The last of them would transfer no later than 25 years, as I said, after annexation. IMNSHO, not all Mexican states ought to translate into American states directly, see below.

Secondly, all Mexican citizens would automatically become American citizens immediately. That means all the freedoms and responsibilities acquired therein. That also means that as many as truly want to can move wherever within the US. My bet is that the rural regions drain into the older American States while the cities stay largely intact.

Thirdly, the federal government of the United States would guarantee that each territory would have a budget of $2 billion allocated to it independent of any and all locally collected taxes. This would be decided on by the Feds for development and improvement of the territories. No more than three quarters would go to infrastructure projects. The majority of the rest would be put to anticorruption measures, especially in reforming the judiciary and police. Once the territories transition to states, this goes away and they would have to rely on earmarks just like everybody else. Which territory that would make the leap to statehood would be selected based on economic status and corruption reduction, btw. Anyways, initially this would be a bill of $64 billion per year. After five years, when Greater Mexico became a state, it would decrease to $52 billion. When Baja California becomes a state, it would drop by $4 billion and Yucatan by $6 billion. Uh, why?


The reason is that these are the proposed states from made from Mexico's. If you note, there are a total of twenty-five of them. There are thirty one states in Mexico today and the federal district. There were some consolidations that I thought through a bit when I started thinking through the map of an annexed Mexico.

The first and foremost is the creation of the state I have been calling Greater Mexico, but would really be called just 'Mexico.' There is already one of the United Mexican States with that name and it absorbs the Federal District, Morelos, Puebla, Tlaxcala, and Hidalgo. As noted above, this would be the first state admitted into the Union as a full state five years after annexation. It would have a total population of 33,132,831 - assuming no population shifts, which as we noted would be false, big time - making it second only to California in the Union in the Electoral College and House of Representatives. One of the biggest drivers for its creation was actually because Mexico City, the capital, sprawls across most of these states.

Also consolidated was Baja California and Baja California Sur to make a territory and ultimately state with the population of 3,356,639. That would place it between Connecticut and Iowa in electoral importance. However, given that I believe that once Mexico is annexed that Baja California would become Florida West - even more so than now - then I expect that this population will swell big time.

Finally, also consolidated into the territory and ultimately state of Yucatan was Yucatan, Quintana Roo, and Campeche. This made a state of 3,708,987 souls making it roughly as important as Oregon in the electoral mix once it too becomes a state.

FWIW, as a last note, sadly, I think that Chiapas and Oaxaca would be the last territories to make the leap to statehood. I could be wrong though.


What Happens After Annexation on a Social & Economic Level?


That's a pretty good question. Here's my take.

Immediately after annexation, there will be a big time recession in the Mexican territories. You have to keep in mind the nominal minimum wage in Mexico is far, far lower than in the US. A nontrivial amount of jobs would initially be lost because a lot of industry is dependent on those abysmal wages to be competitive. Remove that and...poof. That said, at federal minimum wage rates, which people there would be willing to work at, the economy would recovery within two to three years. With the removal of corruption, I suspect that the Mexican territorial and state economies would just plain boom. It was suggested to me that it would be as much as 7% per year, sustained. Until the Mexican states neared convergence with the rest of the country, that's a brisk clip to be developing at. And a nice tax base to add if I may point out.

Part of the jobs losses though would be mitigated by the fact that a nontrivial number of people would simply leave the Mexican Territories in the first five years, prior to Mexico becoming a state. It may be as much as the 60% that the polls state would happen if they had no barriers as would be the case here. On the other hand, people do a lot of talk and with the federal spending in the Mexican Territories and the jump in wages, it's going to cut that migration nontrivially. My guess is that 30% of our new citizens would migrate north to the new states. that will have a nontrivial impact on low skill and unskilled labor forces in the Northern States. Unfortunately, it would take some pretty big time investment in training and education to lift that group up and try to mitigate the impact, but...it wouldn't necessarily work as well as we'd hope.

That said, social security is fixed for a at least a couple more generations. :)

Not all population shifts will be to the north. There will be a nontrivial southern moving component. It could be as much as 5% of the northern population (15 million people, plus or minus). The biggest ones will be the opportunists - of course! - and also something of an underwhelming surprise of retirees. I could easily see, in fact would almost bet the farm on, Greater Baja California becoming Desert Florida West with five plus million retirees moving there for the cheaper living and nice climate. That's happening to some extent now. If Baja was an American state...then there would be a boom in biomedical industries (nurses anyone?) and all the support functions and fun industries - restaurants! leisure industries! etc! Oh my! - to absorb the capital of the retirees' collective spending. Baja California's population might increase from 3.3 million to as much as 12 million.

Additionally, I bet the rural states in Mexico would have the biggest drain while Baja and the states with large urban sites would either remains stable or grow. Greater Mexico would probably have remained stable or even grown. I suspect one of the biggest losers might actually be some of the old border states on either side: the biggest reasons for the Mexican border states to have such large populations just...evaporated. Instead of the Rust Belt, do we get the Dust Belt?

At any rate, I'll have to wrap up there for now. I'm waaaay out of time and there's too much to do.