The link to the presentation is in the title (like always).
All of you who have been reading my blog for some time have noted that I am anti-Singularitarian. I think the entire bit is bogus to the extreme. I've talked about the 'Heat Death of the Singularity' and I have talked of the eye rolling Charlie's Accelerando (note: work is the distillation of the fantasies of the /. crowd) has induced (it stopped...eventually). I am also not concerned whatsoever about the Robopocalypse, my tag to the effect is as much a bit of humor as anything.
However, I'm a low level worker in the HPC field. While, yes, I do move and shake a bit in the NewSpace world - its a much smaller one - I am not someone who, by career choice, is can have a big impact with my opinions in the world of supercomputing.
Horst Simon, on the other hand, as a Deputy Director of Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, has far more impact when he stands up and says something. He just has. We will not be getting to exaflop machines by 2020, he says. That takes guts to say. Go read his prezo on the subject. I wish there was a video of him presenting a version of it at the CUG LBNL just hosted. I've been told it caused quite a stir.