Recent events have underscored that Air-Sea Battle (ASB) is at best a necessary but insufficient solution to China’s military modernization and increasingly assertive diplomatic posture.
Although there’s a legitimate debate about whether ASB is too escalatory to be credible against a nuclear-armed adversary in any scenario, even ASB’s strongest proponents must concede that it would only be politically viable if the U.S. and China move from a state of tense peace to open war. That is, unless China presents the U.S. with a “Pearl Harbor” type moment—most likely an invasion of Taiwan or the Senkaku Islands—no U.S. president would be comfortable ordering the military to execute an ASB operation against China.
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