Iran Nuclear Talks Headed off a Cliff?

It is now clear that differences in negotiations between Iran and six major powers led by the United States remain intractable, despite the conciliatory words and much friendlier atmosphere which have reigned in recent months. When the two sides met in Vienna last week for a first round of hard-core haggling after months of laying out their positions, it was as if they had run into a wall. Instead of confidently saying an agreement over Iran’s nuclear ambitions could be reached by the July 20 deadline, officials were now talking of “significant gaps” in their positions. It is “not about being optimistic or not optimistic. It is about being realistic,” a senior US official said.

The official said the six nations negotiating with Iran – the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany – now were “worried about the short time left” until the deadline, the US official said. “In any negotiations you have good days and bad days,” the official said. The Wednesday to Friday meeting in the Austrian capital was clearly among the bad ones. “We need to see some tough decisions being made … more than we’ve seen thus far,” the US official said, referring to such matters as the number of centrifuges Iran will get to keep. Iranian negotiators meanwhile were talking about the deadline possibly being extended six months until next January but the American said the six nations still had a “sense of urgency” about reaching an agreement in July.

There are to be more senior-level talks in June; experts from the two sides are consulting on a full-time basis. Talks are expected to become non-stop as the July 20 deadline nears. The bottom line is that the fundamental divide which has existed since the beginning of the Iranian nuclear crisis in 2002, when secret Iranian nuclear work was first revealed, has not diminished. The devil may be in the details in the talks but the details reflect ways of thinking about nuclear goals and needs. Compromising on issues such as centrifuges, which refine uranium into either reactor fuel of bomb material, are as political as they are technical and therein lies the rub. Here is a look at what the main issues are going forward:

Centrifuges

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