Is Russia Going to Annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia?

Against the backdrop of the quickly unfolding situation in Ukraine—the annexation of Crimea and the guerrilla war in eastern Ukrainian—there are growing fears in Georgia that Russia will also use similar techniques, including elections or referenda, to annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Georgian politicians and experts are alarmed by the assumption that Russia has the same reasons for adversarial action toward Georgia, as it had in Ukraine. On June 27, Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili is expected to sign the Association Agreement with the European Union in Brussels. Indeed, according to a commonly held view, Moscow’s openly negative attitude toward post-Soviet states integrating into Western institutions became the primary cause for the catastrophic developments in Ukraine.

Even more infuriating to Moscow is Georgia’s continuing insistence on joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Tbilisi hopes to receive a Membership Action Plan (MAP) at the September 2014 NATO summit in Wales, and Georgia’s Minister of Defense Irakli Alasania offered to station NATO defense structures on Georgian territory.

Recent events seem to support the view that Moscow is prepared to punish Georgia for moving closer to Europe, by finally annexing Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

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Russia to Guard Ossetia, Abkhazia's Borders

Russia signed a deal with Georgia's two breakaway regions Thursday giving Moscow the power to guard their borders — a move sharply criticized in Tbilisi.

President Dmitry Medvedev and the leaders of South Ossetia and Abkhazia signed the agreements at a Kremlin ceremony nearly nine months after the brief war between Russia and Georgia.

The deal is an apparent attempt to legitimize the presence of thousands of Russian troops in the separatist regions, which were at the center of the war.

Russia will guard the borders of both regions including Abkhazia's territorial waters in the Black Sea, according to the agreement.

After humiliating Georgia's army, Russia strengthened its control over the two regions and also took over swaths of territory that had been under Georgia's control before the war.

The U.S. and European Union consider this a violation of the cease-fire, which required all forces to pull back to positions held before the fighting in August.

Moscow's position was that the cease-fire had been superseded by subsequent agreements with South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

In signing Wednesday's deal with Abkhaz leader Sergei Bagapsh and South Ossetia leader Eduard Kokoiti, Medvedev indicated that Russia's intention was to strengthen this claim.

Is there any question now what's going on here?

Russia Looking for Sevastopol Replacement in Abkhazia?

Russia plans to start building a naval base in Georgia's breakaway Abkhazia region this year, the leadership of the Black Sea province said Monday.

A move to base warships in the separatist Black Sea province of Abkhazia would heighten tensions between Russia and Georgia following the war between the two in last summer. It also would deepen Western concerns about Russia's growing military presence in a region the United States, Europe and most of the world consider Georgian territory.

Russia recognized Abkhazia and another separatist province, South Ossetia, as independent nations after the August war broke out over South Ossetia, and has vowed to maintain thousands of troops in both regions.

The U.S. and EU accuse Russia of violating a cease-fire deal that limited the Russian military presence in the breakaway provinces after the war, which brought ties with Moscow to a post-Cold War low.

Russia, meanwhile, accuses the U.S. of encouraging a belligerent Georgia and has warned the West against helping rebuild the small nation's military.

Abkhazian President Sergei Bagapsh said the separatist region had agreed in principle to allow Russia to create a base for Black Sea fleet warships in Ochamchira, an Abkhazian port about 20 miles (32 kilometers) up the coast from Georgian-controlled territory, according to his spokesman, Kristian Bzhania. He said three was no written agreement but that Russia intends to begin building the base this year.

Bzhania spoke in Abkhazia's capital, Sukhumi, after the ITAR-Tass news agency quoted an unidentified Russian navy official as saying that Russia has decided to build a naval base in Ochamchira. The official said work on the project, including dredging, would start in 2009, but suggested it could take a few years to complete the base, the report said.

Interesting development. I wonder if it will pan out. Russia's facing a big crunch economically here.