Is Russia Going to Annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia?

Against the backdrop of the quickly unfolding situation in Ukraine—the annexation of Crimea and the guerrilla war in eastern Ukrainian—there are growing fears in Georgia that Russia will also use similar techniques, including elections or referenda, to annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Georgian politicians and experts are alarmed by the assumption that Russia has the same reasons for adversarial action toward Georgia, as it had in Ukraine. On June 27, Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili is expected to sign the Association Agreement with the European Union in Brussels. Indeed, according to a commonly held view, Moscow’s openly negative attitude toward post-Soviet states integrating into Western institutions became the primary cause for the catastrophic developments in Ukraine.

Even more infuriating to Moscow is Georgia’s continuing insistence on joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Tbilisi hopes to receive a Membership Action Plan (MAP) at the September 2014 NATO summit in Wales, and Georgia’s Minister of Defense Irakli Alasania offered to station NATO defense structures on Georgian territory.

Recent events seem to support the view that Moscow is prepared to punish Georgia for moving closer to Europe, by finally annexing Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

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Transdniestria Next? Or a Ploy to Shift the World's Gaze From Crimea?

Russia's military staged training exercises on Tuesday in Transdniestria, a breakaway sliver of Moldova that is a focus of tension following Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region.

NATO's top military commander said on Sunday he was worried that Russia might have its eye on Transdniestria, a largely Russian-speaking region that borders western Ukraine, after seizing Crimea, which has a narrow ethnic Russian majority.

The Interfax news agency quoted a spokesman for Russia's Western Military District, Colonel Oleg Kochetkov, as saying that Russian forces stationed in Transdniestria had "conducted an anti-terrorism drill and practiced operations to rebuff an attack on their military base".

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Ukraine: War or Interwar?

The referendum took place.  The Crimeans supposedly elected to become part of Russia.  There were numerous irregularities (actual turn out much lower, journalists not allowed to watch vote counts, boycotts, dead people voting, people without Ukrainian passports voting, etc, etc).

Russia has since moved to annex Crimea.

Putin thumbed his nose at Crimea.

The Ukrainian government declared weapons free for the soldiers posted there.  A Ukrainian serviceman has since died from an assault by Russian forces in Simferopol.

A Crimean Tatar was tortured and killed.  He was since buried by his people.

The Russian equivalent of Glenn Beck made uber boastful claims Russia could reduce the US to radioactive ash.  The difference between Beck and this other twist is the Russian is formally backed by the Russian government.

The West has stated it will retaliate with more sanctions though Europe is pretty fractured.  The sanctions put in place so far have been pretty lame.  This goes for the US as well.

The French have announced they may cancel the amphibious warship contract with the Russians.

The Ukrainians are vowing to get back Crimea and seize the assets of Russian companies and Russian government in Ukraine.

The Ukrainians have shifted their forces to the south and east.  The 26th airborne (iirc) has been seen outside Donetsk.  Likewise, a number of armored vehicles were moved there as well from armoured brigades.

The Turks have warned they will close the Bosporus to Russian ships and shipping, effectively blockading the Russians in the Black Sea.

There have been massive hacker attacks on Russia and Ukraine, but only on government websites.  I am not sure whether this is fortunate or not.

The Russians have supposedly planned a nuclear reactor for Crimea.

The Japanese have waded in and started condemning the Russians fwiw as well.

My personal opinion is little will happen.  The Russians will take Crimea.  The West will impose some sanctions and cancel other contracts and further developments with the Russians.  The mainland Ukrainians will unite for a change and do moderately well, with the help of the West.  The West is seeming pretty toothless at the moment.  I would hope Obama would release more oil from the reserve and make some concessions with the Saudis (though they are not happy with him) to up production to reduce the price of oil...

The short term initiative is in the hands of the Russians.  They can stop where they are or they can take the south and East of Ukraine.  I call it 50-50 whether they are really done. 

Ukraine will likely not do much if the Russians do not.  However, I do predict they will not take their kick in the 'nads by the Russians well.  They are likely in the future to try to take back Crimea from the Russians.  it won't be the administration of Turch/Yats, but probably the follow-on or the one afterwards.  They'll make a play for Crimea in a revanchist spasm.  I felt this was like post-WW2 Germany.  However, a friend pointed out while it does feel interwar, that it felt like Ukraine was in the position of Poland, rather than Germany.

The Caution & Worry of the Other Former Soviet Republics

CORROSIVE corruption, submissive courts, poverty lapping at the gates of presidential palaces: the parallels between the regimes of Central Asia’s autocrats and that of the fallen Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, are uncomfortably plain. Events in Ukraine pose two worries for the ageing strongmen of Central Asia.

First, the success of anti-government protests in Kiev, Ukraine’s capital, that toppled Mr Yanukovych might serve as inspiration for revolutions in Central Asia. Second, the rulers realise, the response of President Vladimir Putin of Russia in seizing Crimea could be seen as a blueprint for future Russian invasions. All five of the post-Soviet states of Central Asia have their own populations of ethnic Russians. These minorities have long felt more marginalised than those who now enjoy Mr Putin’s “protection” in Crimea.

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Russia to Guard Ossetia, Abkhazia's Borders

Russia signed a deal with Georgia's two breakaway regions Thursday giving Moscow the power to guard their borders — a move sharply criticized in Tbilisi.

President Dmitry Medvedev and the leaders of South Ossetia and Abkhazia signed the agreements at a Kremlin ceremony nearly nine months after the brief war between Russia and Georgia.

The deal is an apparent attempt to legitimize the presence of thousands of Russian troops in the separatist regions, which were at the center of the war.

Russia will guard the borders of both regions including Abkhazia's territorial waters in the Black Sea, according to the agreement.

After humiliating Georgia's army, Russia strengthened its control over the two regions and also took over swaths of territory that had been under Georgia's control before the war.

The U.S. and European Union consider this a violation of the cease-fire, which required all forces to pull back to positions held before the fighting in August.

Moscow's position was that the cease-fire had been superseded by subsequent agreements with South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

In signing Wednesday's deal with Abkhaz leader Sergei Bagapsh and South Ossetia leader Eduard Kokoiti, Medvedev indicated that Russia's intention was to strengthen this claim.

Is there any question now what's going on here?

Perhaps We Should Call Them Bellicussia!

Russia triggered a fresh scramble for the oil wealth of the Arctic yesterday after President Dmitri Medvedev called on security chiefs to establish a formal border in the region.

Mr Medvedev laid claim to a vast tranche of the Arctic, telling his National Security Council that it had "strategic importance" for Russia. Estimates suggest that the polar region contains billions of tons of oil and gas reserves, which are increasingly accessible as global warming melts the ice cap.

"We must wrap up all the formalities for drawing the external border in the continental shelf. This is our direct responsibility to future generations," Mr Medvedev told the Kremlin meeting.

Nikolai Patrushev, the director of the security council, said that Russia would defend its interests in the Arctic against rival claims from the United States, Canada, Norway and Denmark.

Oy.

When viewed through the side lighting of the Russo-Georgian War, the fact they are now handing out passports in Simferopol and Sevastopol[1] just like they did a year or so ago in Ossetia, they are flying bomber patrols near the US and Europe (probably Japan too) again, the warning Moldova not to make the same mistake as Georgia wrt Transnistria, and flying two of its remaining nuclear bombers to Venezuela, it sure sounds like Russia wants the Cold War so much more than the US does. Oh, yes, it wants to build a space center in Cuba too.


1. Let's see if this spreads to more than Crimea. Places to watch are Donetsk and Odessa. If I hear something first, I'll be sure to post it.