US Army M-1 Tanks Deployed to the Republic of Georgia

Few things highlight a nation’s military power better than a column of tanks. As the United States and Russia vie for influence in Europe, the Pentagon has come to see armored vehicles as an important, if often slow, show of force.

That’s why a team of M-1 Abrams main battle tanks made the long journey to the Republic of Georgia in early May 2016. They were the U.S. Army’s first tanks to ever visit Georgia, which fought a brief, violent war with Russia in 2008.

link.

Robopocalypse Report #3

The robopocalypse marches towards us inexorably.  This industrial revolution has vast implications.  Ones which we as a society need to take seriously.  In some places, the Robopocalypse has already arrived, even if its in a small part.

In Japan, a hotel - the Weird Hotel - has replaced a huge number of labor with bots.  The checkin is touch screen (with a weird bot talking to you).  The cloak room attendant is a bot and the porters for your luggage are machines as well.  The reason?  To save money on labor costs: this is the future and exactly what we have been talking about for the Robopocalypse.

Japan has had a long tradition of attempting the Robopocalypse.  This is due to its aging population and that they do not want immigration.  The United States is now getting in on the act.  In fact, not California, but rather Georgia might be embracing the Robopocalypse in ways some fear and others did not anticipate.

Macon-Bibb, Georgia is seeking to add drones strategically placed to be first responders.  Or "first recon," you might say.  A drone, in theory, could be sent to do the equivalent of a police drive by or check out whether or not a tree has downed a electrical line, etc. faster than dispatching a person could be.  

The question does remain whether or not the Robopocalypse will have a huge impact on labor.  Or not.  One study was run to see what the impacts of robots were between 1993 to 2007 on labor.   The study did not find there was much of an impact on employment by and large.  Except for the lower end, lower skilled, there was almost no negative impact at all.  Now, this was over a 15 year period, to be sure, but it was with older tech which has not been as versatile.  The versatility is what concerns us. A pop sci write up is here. 

Is Russia Going to Annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia?

Against the backdrop of the quickly unfolding situation in Ukraine—the annexation of Crimea and the guerrilla war in eastern Ukrainian—there are growing fears in Georgia that Russia will also use similar techniques, including elections or referenda, to annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Georgian politicians and experts are alarmed by the assumption that Russia has the same reasons for adversarial action toward Georgia, as it had in Ukraine. On June 27, Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili is expected to sign the Association Agreement with the European Union in Brussels. Indeed, according to a commonly held view, Moscow’s openly negative attitude toward post-Soviet states integrating into Western institutions became the primary cause for the catastrophic developments in Ukraine.

Even more infuriating to Moscow is Georgia’s continuing insistence on joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Tbilisi hopes to receive a Membership Action Plan (MAP) at the September 2014 NATO summit in Wales, and Georgia’s Minister of Defense Irakli Alasania offered to station NATO defense structures on Georgian territory.

Recent events seem to support the view that Moscow is prepared to punish Georgia for moving closer to Europe, by finally annexing Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

link.

A Call to Reform xSoviet Universities

Research: Discard Soviet doctorate systems

Author:

Alexander Gorobets

Exert:

The research performance of most former Soviet states is still low compared with that of many Western countries. In my view, progress will be stifled as long as the archaic academic systems passed down from the former Soviet Union persist.

I have analysed the research performance of several of these nations on the basis of their per capita gross expenditure on research and development from 1998 to 2010 and their number of research publications from 1998 to 2012.

Russia to Guard Ossetia, Abkhazia's Borders

Russia signed a deal with Georgia's two breakaway regions Thursday giving Moscow the power to guard their borders — a move sharply criticized in Tbilisi.

President Dmitry Medvedev and the leaders of South Ossetia and Abkhazia signed the agreements at a Kremlin ceremony nearly nine months after the brief war between Russia and Georgia.

The deal is an apparent attempt to legitimize the presence of thousands of Russian troops in the separatist regions, which were at the center of the war.

Russia will guard the borders of both regions including Abkhazia's territorial waters in the Black Sea, according to the agreement.

After humiliating Georgia's army, Russia strengthened its control over the two regions and also took over swaths of territory that had been under Georgia's control before the war.

The U.S. and European Union consider this a violation of the cease-fire, which required all forces to pull back to positions held before the fighting in August.

Moscow's position was that the cease-fire had been superseded by subsequent agreements with South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

In signing Wednesday's deal with Abkhaz leader Sergei Bagapsh and South Ossetia leader Eduard Kokoiti, Medvedev indicated that Russia's intention was to strengthen this claim.

Is there any question now what's going on here?

Russia Looking for Sevastopol Replacement in Abkhazia?

Russia plans to start building a naval base in Georgia's breakaway Abkhazia region this year, the leadership of the Black Sea province said Monday.

A move to base warships in the separatist Black Sea province of Abkhazia would heighten tensions between Russia and Georgia following the war between the two in last summer. It also would deepen Western concerns about Russia's growing military presence in a region the United States, Europe and most of the world consider Georgian territory.

Russia recognized Abkhazia and another separatist province, South Ossetia, as independent nations after the August war broke out over South Ossetia, and has vowed to maintain thousands of troops in both regions.

The U.S. and EU accuse Russia of violating a cease-fire deal that limited the Russian military presence in the breakaway provinces after the war, which brought ties with Moscow to a post-Cold War low.

Russia, meanwhile, accuses the U.S. of encouraging a belligerent Georgia and has warned the West against helping rebuild the small nation's military.

Abkhazian President Sergei Bagapsh said the separatist region had agreed in principle to allow Russia to create a base for Black Sea fleet warships in Ochamchira, an Abkhazian port about 20 miles (32 kilometers) up the coast from Georgian-controlled territory, according to his spokesman, Kristian Bzhania. He said three was no written agreement but that Russia intends to begin building the base this year.

Bzhania spoke in Abkhazia's capital, Sukhumi, after the ITAR-Tass news agency quoted an unidentified Russian navy official as saying that Russia has decided to build a naval base in Ochamchira. The official said work on the project, including dredging, would start in 2009, but suggested it could take a few years to complete the base, the report said.

Interesting development. I wonder if it will pan out. Russia's facing a big crunch economically here.

Russian "Relations" With Georgian Provinces Formalized

Russia's parliament on Wednesday quickly ratified treaties cementing close economic and military ties with Georgia's two breakaway provinces.

The State Duma, or lower house, voted unanimously to endorse the friendship treaties with Abkhazia and South Ossetia which were signed in the Kremlin last month. The Duma, dominated by Kremlin-controlled parties, quickly rubber stamps government proposals.

Russia recognized both provinces as independent states following its war with Georgia in August. The treaties envisage the deployment of 3,800 Russian troops in each of the two provinces.

Russia's Foreign Ministry said in a letter to lawmakers that the treaties were necessary to create the legal basis for the deployment of Russian troops to the territories. "The Russian troops presence is necessary to protect peace in the region and ensure reliable security," the ministry said, adding that the treaties envisage aid in case of aggression.

I wish I had time to comment, but...I don't. More later.

Russia's Agenda at the Talks over the Russo-Georgian War?

Russia seeks to use the Geneva process to cement its territorial gains, erode Georgian sovereignty further, and disseminate propaganda against the Georgian government from a Geneva tribunal. Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov spelled out Russia’s goals in Moscow on the eve of the Geneva conference and Karasin did so during the Geneva event (Interfax, Itar-Tass, October 13-15). The stated goals include the following:

1) Georgia should sign legally binding agreements on the non-use of force with Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the Geneva framework, as well as “develop normal relations” with the Abkhaz and South Ossetian authorities. The proposed agreements and “normalization” could, however, amount to recognition of the two territories’ secession, which is a central objective for Moscow in this Geneva process;

2) Pending such agreements, the EU should “guarantee” security in “zones adjacent to” Abkhazia and South Ossetia, on rump Georgia’s territory, working out the modalities with the secessionist authorities and Russia in the Geneva process. Such arrangements, however, would carve out special-status zones in Georgian territory and could turn the EU’s Monitoring Mission (EUMM) into de facto border guards along the new, illegitimate “borders”;

3) An international ban should be imposed on sales of “heavy” and/or “offensive” weapons to Georgia. This purely propagandistic demand seeks to stigmatize Georgia as an “aggressor” state necessitating international restraining measures. Meanwhile, Russia is continually objecting to the idea of Georgia receiving purely defensive weapons, such as anti-tank and air-defense systems, the lack of which ultimately laid Georgia wide open to the invasion in August.

It almost sounds like either A) the Russians are trying to derail the talks so they can claim the gave the jawboning a try but it was those darn Westerners that screwed everything up or B) they're trying to set up Georgia to be uberweak to either take it or, after the talks are done, just outright claim the errant territories.

So which is it, Mr Putin?

Russia to Ukraine: Remain Out of NATO...or Else

Most recently Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the Russian ultranationalist leader who often acts as the Kremlin’s unofficial spokesman, warned that “if someone attempts to drag Ukraine into NATO and the people start to protest against this and they are harassed…then Russia will have the right to defend its citizens in Ukraine.” He added that “it would be ideal for both Georgia and Ukraine to remain neutral.”

The Russians have expanded the passport program in Ukraine. Anyone who is "Russian" can pick up a passport and Russian citizenship. They had been doing this only in Crimea. They just expanded it to the rest of the country. They're tauting it as the way to help those poor souls that had been lost on the other side of the USSR's split to allow them to come home.

That might have been plausible a decade ago. However, the Russians did a similar stunt in Georgia's break away regions a year or so before the Russo-Georgian War. Now they're testing the waters in Ukraine? Where Ukraine lacks a military to protect herself, really? huh. Sounds like the Bear is getting set to chew on the helpless again.

If only Europe would drop its objections! A lot of resentment by Ukrainians against NATO, EU, and the West is because of the difficulty in getting visas and the perception that the West outright rejects them. *sighs*

Hey, Russia! Which Is It? That is WITHOUT The Spin!

Russia appealed to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization for backing with respect to its actions in the Russo-Georgian War. They had wanted the SCO to state that Russia was in the right and that the SCO ahd their back. Well, depending on who you are listening to, the SCO backed them, took a neutral stance, or declined to back Russia's behavior. So, which is it?

The Russian POV on the SCO statement articulated by AP:

China and four Central Asian nations signed a statement Thursday supporting Russia's role in the Caucasus but also expressing "deep concern" over the Georgia conflict and calling for a negotiated settlement.

[...]

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said the statement showed a "united position" on the Georgia conflict, and Kremlin officials indicated they were happy with its phrasing.

On the other hand, the Voice of America gives a different point of view:

China has expressed concern after Russia declared two regions of Georgia independent. As Daniel Schearf reports from Beijing, China has its own concerns about territorial integrity.

China's Foreign Ministry says it is watching with close concern after Russia signed a declaration recognizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent from Georgia.

[...]

Qin Gang, the Foreign Ministry spokesman, says they understand the complex histories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. He says China's ongoing position on this issue is that they hope all sides use negotiations and dialogue to resolve the issue.

The New York Times gives a rather different spin:

Russia suffered a significant setback here on Thursday, as members of a regional security group in which the Kremlin plays an important role offered little support for Moscow’s military action in Georgia.

Dmitri A. Medvedev, the Russian president, arrived in this sleepy Central Asian capital for the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, with hopes that the six-member group would provide the strong international backing the Kremlin has so far lacked after its incursion into Georgia. Moscow has urged other nations to follow its lead and recognize Georgia’s breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states.

Instead, the organization, which also includes China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, took a neutral stance, urging Russia and Georgia to resolve their differences peacefully.

“The S.C.O. states express grave concern in connection with the recent tensions around the South Ossetia issue and urge the sides to solve existing problems peacefully, through dialogue, and to make efforts facilitating reconciliation and talks,” the summit’s final joint declaration said, using the initials of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

So which is it, Mr Putin^H^H^H^HMedvedev?

Don't tell me that the whole war was simply to boost McCain, btw! That's just...stupid.

Russia, Georgia, Ukraine and NATO

Thanx to Julia!

Medvedev's Georgian War Speech

My dear fellow countrymen, citizens of Russia!

You are no doubt well aware of the tragedy of South Ossetia. The nighttime execution-style bombardment of Tskhinval by the Georgian troops resulted in the deaths of hundreds of our civilians. Among the dead were the Russian peacekeepers, who gave their lives in fulfilling their duty to protect women, children and the elderly.

The Georgian leadership, in violation of the UN Charter and their obligations under international agreements and contrary to the voice of reason, unleashed an armed conflict victimizing innocent civilians. The same fate lay in store for Abkhazia. Obviously, they in Tbilisi hoped for a blitzkrieg that would have confronted the world community with an accomplished fact. The most inhuman way was chosen to achieve the objective — annexing South Ossetia trough the annihilation of a whole people.

That was not the first attempt to do this. In 1991, President Gamsahourdia of Georgia, having proclaimed the motto "Georgia for Georgians" — just think about it! — ordered attacks on the cities of Sukhum and Tskhinval. The result then was thousands of killed people, dozens of thousands of refugees and devastated villages. And it was Russia who at that time put an end to the eradication of the Abkhaz and Ossetian peoples. Our country came forward as a mediator and peacekeeper insisting on a political settlement. In doing so we were invariably guided by the recognition of Georgia's territorial integrity.

The Georgian leadership chose another way. Disrupting the negotiating process, ignoring the agreements achieved, committing political and military provocations, attacking the peacekeepers — all these actions grossly violated the regime established in conflict zones with the support of the United Nations and OSCE.

Russia continually displayed calm and patience. We repeatedly called for returning to the negotiating table and did not deviate from this position of ours even after the unilateral proclamation of Kosovo's independence. However our persistent proposals to the Georgian side to conclude agreements with Abkhazia and South Ossetia on the nonuse of force remained unanswered. Regrettably, they were ignored also by NATO and even at the United Nations.

It stands quite clear now: a peaceful resolution of the conflict was not part of Tbilisi's plan. The Georgian leadership was methodically preparing for war, while the political and material support provided by their foreign guardians only served to reinforce the perception of their own impunity.

Tbilisi made its choice during the night of August 8, 2008. Saakashvili opted for genocide to accomplish his political objectives. By doing so he himself dashed all the hopes for the peaceful coexistence of Ossetians, Abkhazians and Georgians in a single state. The peoples of South Ossetia and Abkhazia have several times spoken out at referendums in favor of independence for their republics. It is our understanding that after what has happened in Tskhinval and what has been planned for Abkhazia they have the right to decide their destiny by themselves.

The Presidents of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, based on the results of the referendums conducted and on the decisions taken by the Parliaments of the two republics, appealed to Russia to recognize the state sovereignty of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Federation Council and the State Duma voted in support of those appeals.

A decision needs to be taken based on the situation on the ground. Considering the freely expressed will of the Ossetian and Abkhaz peoples and being guided by the provisions of the UN Charter, the 1970 Declaration on the Principles of International Law Governing Friendly Relations Between States, the CSCE Helsinki Final Act of 1975 and other fundamental international instruments, I signed Decrees on the recognition by the Russian Federation of South Ossetia's and Abkhazia's independence.

Russia calls on other states to follow its example. This is not an easy choice to make, but it represents the only possibility to save human lives.

Now, with Russia recognizing the chunks of Georgia as independent nations, what do you want to bet that there will be an outright annexation in the next two weeks to a month? This has been a long time coming and the Russians are now threatening Moldavia too over the Transdnistria...

I really wish I had a scan of The Economist cartoon of the NATO castle, the Russian bear, Ukraine and Georgia. Ah well.

There's an interesting article over here about the chronology of the Russo-Georgian War. Now, I don't know there's someone who read's this blog to filter the information for BS. The interesting thing is that Doug's less than favorite Georgian exPresident gets bashed in there pretty good. If what was said in the article is true though, if, then it makes sense why Georgia attacked Ossetia.

EU Pointedly Ignores the Frozen Conflicts

By all accounts from Khanty-Mansiisk, however, Solana and the other EU leaders shied away from any substantive discussion of Abkhazia and the other post-Soviet conflicts. They also failed to raise the issue of transforming Russia’s “peace-keeping” operation to conform to international standards. Solana and several other top figures had given those informal assurances to Georgia on the understanding that Tbilisi would in turn refrain from declaring Russia’s “peace-keeping” troops illegal. These EU leaders’ authority in that regard will not be the same in Georgia after Khanty-Mansiisk.

According to Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov, one item on the summit agenda was the “five conflicts: Kosovo, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Karabakh, and Transnistria” [in that order] (RIA-Novosti, June 27). If so, Moscow succeeded for the first time to link the conflict in Kosovo with the four post-Soviet conflicts at this summit. Initial post-summit briefings in Brussels seem to confirm that the five conflicts were discussed as a package at Khanty-Mansiisk. Linking conflict resolution in the post-Soviet territories to that in Kosovo, so as to complicate all solutions even further, became Russia’s policy during the final stages of negotiations leading to Kosovo’s independence. It seems to have re-emerged in Khanty-Mansiisk in a modified form.

*sighs*

Europe Accepting Russia's Anschluss of Abkhazia?

Perhaps not as strong as that, but the fact they are avoiding a confrontation with Russia as she moves in thousands of soldiers is more than a little surprising. Even disturbing. For all their talk of wanting to preserve Georgia's border integrity they do...nothing.

I am not saying that the Georgians are sweet and innocent as far as their government goes. However, arbitrarily carving off chunks of other countries by great powers for themselves I thought was a no-no these days? Or has the clock been reset?

If so, the 21st Century is going to be a wild ride!

Russia Makes Official Moves to Annex South Ossetia

On May 20 Moscow signaled officially that it was prepared to promote annexation of Georgia’s region of South Ossetia to the Russian Federation. The Russian government seems set to underwrite an ethnic irredenta there, seeking to put an Ossetian face on Russian state expansionism (as it puts an Abkhaz face on Russian policy there).

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs organized, and Minister Sergei Lavrov attended, a presentation of North Ossetia in Moscow for foreign diplomats and businessmen, ostensibly to mark the 225th anniversary of North Ossetia’s incorporation into the Russian Empire. North Ossetian President Teymuraz Mamsurov told the audience in his speech, “I call on you to support the just desire of the Ossetian people to be united.” Mamsurov announced that he would approach foreign diplomatic missions in Moscow with requests to “assist North and South Ossetia to unite” (Itar-Tass, www.novosti.ru, May 20).

Mamsurov’s pronouncement seems not only to have been authorized, but evidently orchestrated, with Lavrov’s presence at the event indicating high-level support.

[...]

Moscow’s loud move on South Ossetia is largely intended to influence Georgia’s May 21 parliamentary elections. It seems designed to impress on Georgian voters that the government cannot handle relations with Russia or deliver on promises to restore Georgia’s territorial integrity, and more broadly to signal that the government is cornered on multiple fronts. Russia’s latest military moves in Abkhazia were also partly calculated to undermine the Georgian government’s standing with voters in the run-up to these parliamentary elections.

Beyond its short-term goals, the endorsement of Ossetian irredentism continues the process of absorbing Abkhazia and South Ossetia into Russia de facto. The Russian presidential decree of April 16 authorized direct official relations between Russian government bodies and the secessionist authorities of Abkhazia and South Ossetia (see EDM, April 18). That marked a step toward “legal” recognition in terms of Russian law, formalizing Russia’s de facto annexation policy. In the case of South Ossetia, that move is now being followed up with overt endorsement of ethnic irredentism as an additional instrument of Russian policy in the South Caucasus.

Okay, so when do you think that Russia will make its move? Will it at all? is this just another bit of tactics wrt the Georgian elections? Or is it going to actually do the deed? What will the international community do if Russia uniltaterally annexes chunks of Georgia?

I am leaning towards Russia being serious about this. The reason is that Russia has painted itself into a corner because of Kosovo and the unless it does something its threats will be interpreted as empty. Furthermore, the Russians in Russia will see the government as bombastic with little in the way of teeth: they want creditability and Russia's bite to be real.

Russia: Georgian SpecFor Helped Separatists

Russia's domestic spy service on Friday accused Georgia of supporting armed rebels in southern Russia, an accusation that could further damage the strained relations between the two countries.

A source in the Federal Security Service (FSB) told Interfax news agency that a Chechen man working for Georgian intelligence had been giving cash to fighters across the turbulent North Caucasus.

"This confirms that Georgian special forces have participated in subversive terrorist activities in the North Caucasus," Interfax quoted the FSB source as saying.

Russia and Georgia are locked in a row over Georgia's two breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which Russia supports. Georgia says war was only narrowly averted earlier this month.

The FSB's claim surfaced just as a Georgian minister was to meet officials from Russia's Foreign Ministry in Moscow to discuss how to repair relations.

A Georgian government spokesman in Tbilisi denied the FSB's accusation, saying: "It's another lie and another provocation from the Russian side."

Yet another accusation, one that if it were true would be cause for war. Seems like Russia is searching for a good reason to pick a fight with the little guy.

Marching into Georgia

I am awaiting a callback since my last meeting was so amazingly short and can't get myself into too much trouble. Therefore, I felt like I needed to get myself into mischief with posting about Russia! I mean, its been a while since I've written anything about the Russosphere because of the events going on right now in the mischief arena, sooo...

Russia has been making itself into a serious problem. Besides playing games in the gas war, reasserting itself in the near abroad, interjecting itself in the problems with Iran in a most unhelpful manner, and making overtly threatening flights of its nuclear, if admittedly decrepit, bomber force, it is now not just talking about being expansionist with respect to the other formerly USSR republics, its actually making moves to annex at least parts of them. Russia had been making some threats over the various so-called "Frozen Conflicts" in the xUSSR if the West helped Kosovo declare independence. Namely, that they would annex certain chunks: the errant sections of Moldova and Georgia were the primary areas discussed. Additionally, when the Orange Revolution toppled Yanukovich from stealing the election in Ukraine, the eastern, southern, and Crimean parts of Ukraine were mentioned by Russia as parts that would possibly be annexed. For a long time all of this was toothless talk. After all, Kosovo received Taiwanese status: independent and recognized by some, but not all and without a UN seat. When this happened, Russia didn't do anything other than huff and puff. It looked as though Russia's comments that Kosovo would be a pattern to be followed in the "Frozen Conflicts" was just another case of the Russian Bear blowing hot air. However, that seems to have changing. Big time.

The most worrisome from the point of view of the West so far has been Georgia. A few weeks ago Georgia had a drone shot down by a Russian MiG:



The whole thing was rather surprising. When confronted, the Russians stated that it didn't happen, despite the video, and then as seems to be modus operandi for the Russians made several statements that were rather conflicting. First that the West must have staged it. Then that the Abkhazians did it with a SAM. Meanwhile, the Georgians released the tracking data for the MiG...and it flew off into Russian airspace. If that were not troubling enough, the Abkhazians have claimed since then that they have downed two more drones, which the Georgians, interestingly enough, deny.

Probably using this as a pretext, the Russians are now moving thousands more troops into Abkhazia. They have claimed that the Georgians have been massing troops on the intra-Georgian border. Georgia has denied doing so and the UN Observers have backed their claims that only local residents are present. As if that were not enough, Putin signed accords that allowed Russian government ministries to begin operations on Abkhazian soil in a manner that is eerily reminiscent of how they operate in Russia proper. It has already granted Russian passports. When taken all together, along with Russian words, the whole situation smacks of creeping Russian revanchism.



During the Orange Revolution, some Russian politicians were in Ukraine in support of the Yanukovich elements and even in joint statements with the pissy losers stated that the sections of Ukraine that were in support of Yanukovich would secede to be annexed by Russia. It didn't happen and since then Yanukovich ahs shown that he has been and will be more interested in his own power (and possibly pocket book) than truly being a member of the Greater Panrussia. That hasn't stopped the Russian politicians - some of the same and now others that are new, including Putin's circle - from bringing returning to the theme. Especially quite recently over Crimea specifically.

While there might be a cellophane sheet - or would that be a filo sheet? - of pretext for the situation in the breakaway regions of Georgia, there's even less for the table pounding that Russia has been making with respect to Ukraine. There is a nasty little row over Crimea now underway. Important politicians of Russia are now stating the Crimean is 'question' that needs 'resolving' even though there has been multiple treaties over the matter stating the Crimea is an integral part of Ukraine. Putin too has gotten into the act by questioning whether or not Ukraine ought to be a acknowledged as an independent country or at least whether or not it ought to be guaranteed its territorial integrity. While there hasn't been any official action, ie its all been talk, if Russia is moving from talk to action with Georgia, could Ukraine be next?

This is especially worrisome because in both cases Georgia and Ukraine are moving towards NATO membership. They were denied a MAP at the last NATO Summit, yet were promised - perhaps vacuously - that they were going to start down the path of membership very soon. Once they are members any territorial adjustment wrt Russia will be nigh impossible to Russia's advantage since an attack on one member is an attack on all. Therefore, Russia might have decided to make its move now during a window of opportunity that has arisen because of France and Germany's objections to Ukrainian and Georgian membership.

The problem is that the Europeans are making the situation worse. While they are telling Russia not to escalate, Russian forces continue to march. They keep telling the Georgians to cool off too...yet there was never anything that the Georgians could really do: they completely lack the firepower to roust the Russian from their territory. Besides, it's hardly the Georgians that are aggravating the situation either! The one real bit that Europe can do to help Georgia - or Ukraine! - seems to be something they are not willing at this point as whole to do: grant NATO membership. Alas.

Russian Threats: Toothless Growlings or Real Problem?

Offended by NATO’s commitment to open the door for Georgian and Ukrainian membership (Bucharest Summit Declaration, April 3), Moscow is staging a show of indignation replete with new threats.

Putin used this tactic during the April 4 NATO-Russia Council meeting in Bucharest and again during his April 6 meeting with President George W. Bush in Sochi. On these occasions, Putin warned that if Georgia and Ukraine moved toward NATO membership, Russia might respond by recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia’s secession from Georgia and by instigating a partition of Ukraine. According to a witness account, Putin told Bush that Ukraine was “not a real nation,” that much of its territory had been "given away" by Russia, and that Ukraine would “cease to exist as a state” if it joined NATO. In that case, Putin hinted, Russia would encourage secession of the Crimea and eastern regions of Ukraine (Kommersant, April 7; Moscow Times, April 8).

The question is less whether or not the threats are effective in Kiev and Tbilisi. The question is whether or not they have resonance with the locals. I don't think it'll wash much with the Georgians, but who knows about Ukrainians of the East and Southeast. And what version they hear. After all when a friend, my family, and I were visiting Ukraine two years ago the rumor mill was that Ukraine and the US were at WAR! in Crimea when it was actually just the same annual exercise that had been going on for nearly a decade. That time though it was used as a way to rile the underinformed with malicious rumors. Part of the problem is that Ukraine lacks a solid, even semireliable method of getting news. Rumors and conspiracy theories are waaaay too popular there. The problem is, alas, there are actually some conspiracies that take place and it makes conspiracy theories the primary method of explanation when its unnecessary.

Aside for Ukrainian readers: as is said here in the West, Never ascribe to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

Back on topic, let's wait and see what the locals think. I'll have boots on ground info in a little over a month.

Atlanta Blog Post

I originally wrote this up on Saturday. I have just been a little too busy to post it and it was on my wife's computer...when I had issues connecting to SFOs hotspot.

***

We’re back from Atlanta. I have to say that it was not a joyous trip. We did have some fun. We had some disturbing moments. All in all it was a good experience, but I have to say it was rather weird in certain ways and that we’re glad we’re back. You already read out about Lyuda and Avrora’s not so great adventure in US Airways Frakked up land. Now let’s discuss some of the other fun adventures: we’re not flying separately ever again, btw. I mean that literally and otherwise.

First off, the rental car place which work arranged, btw, actually rocked. They had us in and out PDQ, especially this morning. The hotel was eh ok. I guess the W isn’t all that despite several reviews to the contrary. That’s ok. It appears – and I may be uncertain about this – that the W is building two more hotels in the region, so more up to date facilities will be there for whoever happens to stay with them in the future. I doubt we’ll be back in Atlanta any time soon, so I’m not so worried about it.

I already mentioned the restaurant that we went to on our 3rd Anniversary, but we also went to another good one last night. This was the Imperial Fez. It is a Moroccan themed and cusined joint. It was quite good and the belly dancer was amusing and comely, especially when she was flinging around some flaming batons during her ‘Fire Dance.’ My wife and daughter loved it and I mostly ignored it to avoid setting off my wife’s jealousy twitches: Ukrainian women, jealousy, oy. Nuff said. Anyways, the fare was good. The service was excellent. Our camera’s battery died, but the people at the next table offered to send us pix they’d taken of us. Some of those were Lyuda and Avrora dancing with the belly dancer. Over my objections. Once again, I get to show how neandertalish I am. *sighs*

We also went to a HORRIBLE restaurant. Or at least we didn’t like it at all. Lyuda and I have confessed to each other that maybe it might just be the cuisine that just doesn’t match our tastes. We went to Fire of Brazil. Which is, you guessed it! – a Brazil BBQ place. The meat was just a touch too salty and way too dry. Sadly, despite being an internal cuisine lover, we just haven’t been impressed with this one. We had two out of three restaurants turn out bad for us, so we’ll probably be skipping this kind in the future.

My wife went to CNN as I said. She and Avrora also went to the Georgia Aquarium which they both found to be very, very underwhelming after having been to the Monterey Aquarium. They loved the Beluga’s, the sea snakes, kinda liked the whale sharks, and not much else. Avrora liked the penguins, but she likes them everywhere and we have a colony at the SF Zoo, Steinhart Aquarium, and the Monterey Aquarium. My wife’s comment was that if you’ve been to the MA, all you need is 20 minutes to wander through the GA. My wife and daughter also went to Lanier Lake resorts to play in the waterpark. They had a good time. Avrora loved seeing all the carp in the water.

We also went to Georgia Underground. A very un-unique mall, frankly, but we did pick up some glass work from there. Not much else to say other than my wife kept getting hit on rather blatantly when she went to the restroom and came back out again. Sheesh. I know she’s hot guys, but show some class when she’s got a ring on her finger. *shakes head*

Then came the most bizarre thing we did. My wife and I had an argument over it, actually. We went to Stone Mountain, Georgia to the state park. Frankly, the whole thing made me want to vomit from the get go. Well, it was worse than that. We went. We saw. We realized that they Disney-fied the whole kit and caboodle. It was frankly a bizarro world entered we. Praises for the antebellum South. Various God Loving Songs. Puppet shows. A talking and spitting fountain. Various shops too. And it was mostly run by African Americans. In fact, about a quarter of the visitors were African American. Frankly, IDK what to think about it.

The worst thing we encountered otherwise was that driving. I honestly thought California drivers were horrible. The overly aggressive tactics, the obnoxiousness to each other, etc, I thought were worse in Cali than in New Mexico. Well, Georgia takes the cake for bad drivers so far. I cannot come up with words to describe how I felt about this. The English language does not have the necessary invective. Traffic was worse than in the Bay Area. Um? huh? There were two very good reasons.

The first is that exits are not just exits for is on the sign. More than once we found that on exiting the off ramp would sprout multiple routes and that they were not always as clearing marked as we’d expected: I compared notes from another Californian from my classes and he was having a frakked up time of it too by accidentally missing the right ramp (sometimes out of 4 or more). The Oakland Maze is less scary! So, people are dodging all over to get into the right exit. My instructor stated that Atlantans were not so upset with Sherman for burning the place, but were hopping mad for leaving the road system intact.

The second reason is that Atlantans simply cannot merge. It is beyond them. What is orderly, in comparison for Bay Area residents to do on the freeway, these guys simply are incapable. There were times when two lanes would become one and the drivers would continue double file in a single lane for over a thousand feet. Another ‘amusing’ variant of the unable to merge gene expressing itself was that if someone could not get into the lane they wanted, they STOP DEAD COLD IN THE INTERSTATE AND WAIT TO GET IN. Cars would and would backup into a gridlock situation because some dipshibbit would just refuse to budge until he, by golly and gum, got into the lane he wanted. Gottimhimmel, these people are frakkin insane with blink tag! What would normally take me 20 minutes on the freeway with no traffic could turn into 2 ½ hours there (and did! It really did!). Just because people cannot merge. There’s gotta be a genetic reason for it, I swear. We can cure it. This won’t hurt but a bit, I promise.

A tangential comment my wife said was as we were driving back to hotel one night was that she noticed that a lot of the cars were bumped, dinged, or whatnot. Almost all of them were in the side 9but not to bad) like someone was trying to merge and couldn’t quite make it. Instead they’d bump the car they were trying to get ahead of.

Another darkly amusing bit was that Atlantans must have some serious issues with car maintenance. All I can think of is that maintenance must be that it is beyond them or they are getting fleeced by their mechanics or something. We always saw at least one car, truck, or semi broken down every two miles on the highways. One day, Thursday, it was worse: one per mile. It didn’t matter what time of day or night it was either.

If you all didn’t hear, it was hot there too. Multiple days of over 100 F (37 C). Wow. Fun. Especially with the humidity.

We did find a Trader Joe’s. WOOOOOOO! Actually this seemed symptomatic of something else I noticed. Of the people I interacted with, which was limited truth be told, about half of them lacked the Southern Accent. The other half had varying degrees of Southron on their tongue, but mostly it was damned light. Carlos bitches about the Southernization of America, but, frankly, I think our Yankee’s Burden is paying off (note, glyph of satire there).

All in all, we had an interesting time. Lyuda thinks it looks nice. I made it plain I wasn’t going to work there, so she could forget even getting a minor inkling of living there. I think, even though Atlanta was in better shape in general the San Francisco, I’d much rather take a bowl of Fruits, Nuts, and Flakes than grits anytime. Even if it is an over priced bowl and the fruits, nuts, and flakes are politically woohoo. ;)

EU Needs to Take a Stand with Russia

Two Sukhoi fighter-bombers with Russian Air Force markings, flying together from the direction of North Ossetia, intruded by some 80 kilometers into Georgia’s air space on August 6. At 18:20 local time, one of these planes dived from 3,000 meters altitude and dropped a missile near the town of Gori, some 50-60 kilometers from Tbilisi, on a village within the so-called “Georgian-South Ossetian conflict zone.”

The powerful missile with 78 kilograms of TNT landed in a field, failed to explode, and was defused by Georgian military sappers. Georgian Defense Ministry radars and those of Georgia’s civil aviation authority recorded the flight itinerary from and back to Russia’s North Ossetia. The village, Tsitelubani, is within sight of Russian and South Ossetian “peacekeeping” troops’ posts.

This incident follows in the footsteps of the Russian air raid on the Georgian-controlled Kodori Gorge in upper Abkhazia on March 11 (see EDM, March 19, 20). The United Nations led the investigation into that incident, dragged its feet as long as it could, and published the results in July, whitewashing Russia, despite the clear evidence of Russian culpability. The fresh whitewash almost certainly emboldened the Russian military into recidivism, further probing and testing Georgian and Western reactions.

If the Europeans don't stand up and state, "here, but no further" wrt the Georgian-Russian conflict (with teeth) this will end up making Russia bolder and bolder. If Belarus' government is undermined by the Russian gas conflict, do you really think that they're going to let it have an Orange REvolution on the off chance it might be successful and be steered into the EU? *snork* And then whither Ukraine? And then? Russia needs to be told, by Europe, that they need to knock it off and Europe needs to hold that line. Otherwise, for the next twenty years, Russia is going to be a serious PITA for Europeans: consider they're coveting the Med too. At least navally.