The Caution & Worry of the Other Former Soviet Republics

CORROSIVE corruption, submissive courts, poverty lapping at the gates of presidential palaces: the parallels between the regimes of Central Asia’s autocrats and that of the fallen Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, are uncomfortably plain. Events in Ukraine pose two worries for the ageing strongmen of Central Asia.

First, the success of anti-government protests in Kiev, Ukraine’s capital, that toppled Mr Yanukovych might serve as inspiration for revolutions in Central Asia. Second, the rulers realise, the response of President Vladimir Putin of Russia in seizing Crimea could be seen as a blueprint for future Russian invasions. All five of the post-Soviet states of Central Asia have their own populations of ethnic Russians. These minorities have long felt more marginalised than those who now enjoy Mr Putin’s “protection” in Crimea.

link.

A Call to Reform xSoviet Universities

Research: Discard Soviet doctorate systems

Author:

Alexander Gorobets

Exert:

The research performance of most former Soviet states is still low compared with that of many Western countries. In my view, progress will be stifled as long as the archaic academic systems passed down from the former Soviet Union persist.

I have analysed the research performance of several of these nations on the basis of their per capita gross expenditure on research and development from 1998 to 2010 and their number of research publications from 1998 to 2012.

The Greatest Nonproliferation Story Never Told: Plutonium Mountain

Beginning in 1949 and spanning a period of 40 years, the Soviet Union carried out more than 450 nuclear tests in the isolated steppes of eastern Kazakhstan. In 1989, when the socialist state collapsed, the Russians pulled out and left the Kazakhs to their own devices—literally. Enough fissile material for a dozen or more nuclear weapons was left behind in mountain tunnels and bore holes, virtually unguarded and vulnerable to scavengers, rogue states, or potential terrorists.

In a remarkable and highly secretive feat of collaboration among the United States, Russia, and Kazakhstan, engineers and nuclear scientists from the three countries spent 15 years and $150 million to secure many of the tunnels and test areas at the sprawling Semipalatinsk Test Site. Siegfried S. Hecker, a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation, launched the project while director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory. He used his personal ties with Russian scientists to prod them into working with the Americans and Kazakhs after a visit to the test site in 1998 left him stunned by the lack of security and the presence of scavengers.

It was one of the greatest nuclear nonproliferation stories never told, until the White House and Pentagon revealed some details in 2012, which David Hoffman and Eben Harrel of Harvard’s Belfer Center made public over the weekend in an in-depth report, Plutonium Mountain. In October 2012, officials from Kazakhstan, Russia, and the United States dedicated a monument that simply reads: The world has become safer.

The interview of Sig is here and the PDF report is here.

Russia: Which Way Is Up in Ukraine?

Viktor Chernomyrdin, Russia’s ambassador in Kyiv, says that Moscow has little or no chance to bring Ukraine back into its sphere of influence anytime soon, not only because of Ukrainian attitudes toward Russia but also because of the scope of American activities in Ukraine.
In remarkably undiplomatic language, Chernomyrdin, who earlier served as Russia’s prime minister, not only acknowledged d that his own government is losing influence in the country to which he is accredited but also denounced both the US for its activities in Ukraine and Ukraine’s support of Georgia against Russia.

The Russian representative told ”Komsomolskaya Pravda” that like the US under George W. Bush, the Obama Administration will not give up its dominant position in Kyiv and will continue to work not only to ensure that Ukraine adopts an anti-Russian position on gas transit but also becomes a member of the Western alliance.

Asked directly whether Moscow had any chance to change this situation and bring Ukraine back into Moscow’s sphere of influence, Chernomyrdin answered baldly: “No, we will not be able to do that,” because the US won’t allow it and because Ukrainians, especially those in the current government, have such a negative attitude toward Russia.

The Americans, he continued, are “everywhere,” using “more than 2,000 foundations” to promote their interests, inviting people to study in the United States for free, and even sitting in the ministry of defense and “openly working” on behalf of American interests and the inclusion of Ukraine in NATO.

Tragically, Chernomyrdin said, Russians have not “learned” how to respond to this American challenge and consequently are losing their influence. And that problem is compounded by the experiences many Ukrainians working in the Russian Federation have had with Russian officialdom, experiences that have alienated them further.

As a result of all this, the Russian ambassador said, one can hardly reach an accord “with this Ukrainian leadership,” although it is possible that after the presidential elections in January 2010 a new group will come in and then it will be possible to do so, especially if the new people are “sober” and “normal” in their relations with Russia.

Asked whether Viktor Yanukovich, who has the reputation of being pro-Russian was the person Moscow would like to deal with as president of Ukraine, Chernomyrdin said that “it is difficult to say. It is possible to speak with him. But one should not trust anyone,” hardly an expression of support for someone committed to expanding Kyiv-Moscow ties.

Chernomyrdin’s undiplomatic remarks are intriguing both because many Russians believe they have numerous ways of forcing Ukraine to return to Moscow’s fold and are even celebrating what they see as a growth of Russian influence there.

Such commentators point to the declaration of a “Donets Republic” in eastern Ukraine this week and among the Rusin community in western Ukraine, but they say Moscow can employ “a South Ossetian” strategy in Crimea."

Why then given all these self-confident expressions in Moscow did Chernomyrdin choose to give this interview at all?

There are several possbilities. Comments later save two: the inability to trust anyone is a serious handicap for the xUSSR culture. Truly and seriously. And it's interesting that all the NGOs are attributed to the US. A lot are just plain European...or not really affiliated with any government.

Google Translations links to come shortly. Promise.

Putin's Renewed Interest in Belarus

Vladimir Putin could become the leader of a land even larger than Russia — a development that may hinge on talks beginning Thursday in neighboring Belarus.

Putin has unexpectedly revived efforts to create a single state from the two former Soviet republics — a merger that would expand his options for exercising power after he steps down from the Russian presidency next year.

Putin heads to the Belarusian capital, Minsk, on Thursday for discussions of a framework for the long-debated union, fleshing out an existing agreement that has meant little in practice.

A merger of Russia and Belarus could allow Putin to leave the Russian presidency as promised in May yet still remain a chief of state.

"I wouldn't be surprised if Putin tries to speed up a union with Belarus ... to become the president of the unified state," said Gennady Zyuganov, Russia's Communist Party chief.

Personal suspicion: Putin will find a way to incorporate Belarus directly rather than make a state atop Russia. We shall see. We shall see if anything comes of this. We shall see.

A Belarus Blog

It's interesting and mostly a page of links to things Belarusian and seems to be updated once every 3 to 4 days in a magazine-esque format. It's worth a look.

Russia to reduce gas supplies to Belarus

Russia's state-controlled gas monopoly said Wednesday that it will reduce natural gas supplies to Belarus by 45 percent as of Friday after Minsk failed to pay in full for previous gas shipments.

this is for a missed outstanding payment, at least officially, but as my wife says, with russians, look nothing is ever on the surface of what they say they are doing. They like to think they're more clever than they are, so sayeth she.