Belarus Does NOT Want the Russian Airbase

Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko said on Tuesday his country did not need a Russian military base, appearing to make a rare concession to public protests before this weekend's presidential election.

In September, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed a deal for a military airbase on Belarussian territory and ordered defense and foreign ministry officials to start talks with Belarus.

"We don't need a base at the moment ... I hear shrieks from the opposition about the deployment of a Russian airbase. I don't know anything about it," Lukashenko was quoted as saying by official news agency Belta.

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Putin Pushing Belarus for Russian Air Base

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday signaled his intention to establish a Russian military air base in neighboring Belarus — a move sure to unnerve Poland and the Baltic nations.

Belarus has made clear it would not welcome a Russian base, but the former Soviet republic remains dependent on Moscow for credit and energy.

Putin ordered the Russian Defense Ministry, with the participation of the Russian Foreign Ministry, to hold talks with their Belarusian counterparts and sign the agreement that is reached.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has not commented on Putin's initiative. The two presidents met Friday in the southern Russian city of Sochi.

Russia has radar and a navy communications facility in Belarus, but this would be the first base.

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Russia Deploying More Su-27s to Belarus due to Tensions With West

Russia is to permanently deploy an additional eight Sukhoi Su-27 'Flanker' fighters to Belarus, as relations with the West remain tense, state media announced in mid-December.

The eight Su-27s will join the four already based at Baranovichi Air Base, near the Belarus borders with Lithuania and Poland, the TASS news agency reported.

Russia deployed its first Su-27 fighters to Baranovichi Air Base in late 2013, and had deployed six Su-27 fighters, as well as transport and airborne early warning and control aircraft, to this location in the immediate aftermath of the annexation of Crimea in March. It had, however, since reduced the number of 'Flankers' permanently stationed there to four.

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Eurasian Union Finalized Despite Russia's Economic Problems

Russia and four other ex-Soviet nations on Tuesday completed the creation of a new economic alliance intended to bolster their integration, but the ambitious grouping immediately showed signs of fracture as the leader of Belarus sharply criticized Moscow.

The Eurasian Economic Union, which includes Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, comes to existence on Jan. 1. In addition to free trade, it's to coordinate the members' financial systems and regulate their industrial and agricultural policies along with labor markets and transportation networks.

Russia had tried to encourage Ukraine to join, but its former pro-Moscow president was ousted in February following months of protests. Russia then annexed Ukraine's Black Sea Crimean Peninsula, and a pro-Russia mutiny has engulfed eastern Ukraine.

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What is the Eurasian Union for?

“IT IS like you’ve been dating a girl for a long time,” grins Pavel Andreev, an editor at a state-controlled broadcaster, Rossiya Segodnya, explaining why it has taken so long to press ahead with the Eurasian Union. “You’ve met the parents, you’ve spent a weekend with the families, and now you want to get engaged…Eurasian integration has been painfully slow, but it’s moving forward.”

Often seen as an artefact of Vladimir Putin’s nostalgia for the Soviet Union, the Eurasian Union has been largely ignored in the West. Yet it is in the margins of a Eurasian Union summit in Minsk next week that Mr Putin will meet the Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko. And it was the decision by Mr Poroshenko’s predecessor, Viktor Yanukovych, to embrace the project, rejecting a deal with the European Union, which touched off last winter’s protests in Kiev. That decision was not simply a capitulation to Russian empire-building, for this is not what Russia wants. Rather, says Dmitri Trenin of the Carnegie Moscow Centre, it chafes over the lack of a big group that gives it more standing with the EU.

The offices of the Eurasian Union, or the Eurasian Economic Commission as it is officially known, are in a swanky Moscow high-rise building festooned with gold letters. In the lobby, clocks showing the time in the union’s three capitals—Moscow, Minsk, and Astana—cluster together, leaving plenty of room for more. Besides Belarus and Kazakhstan, Russia is keen to add Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia’s president, Serzh Sargsyan, has said he will join. But Mr Poroshenko is just an observer.

Russian officials tout the union’s potential—trade could include everything from Belarus’s heavy machinery to Kazakhstani beef (see article). Trade within the union has grown by over 30% since 2011, they say. Yet Mr Trenin says the economic benefits of expansion are questionable. Discounting the initial burst after the removal of trade barriers in early 2011, annual trade growth has been more like 1.5%. Some officials say it will pick up, as it did with the EU. But the union’s own trade minister, Andrey Slepnev, does not think it will pull Russia’s economy out of stagnation.

With expectations so low, you might wonder what the Eurasian Union is for.

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Russian Air Force to Open Base in Baranovichi, Belarus

The Commander of the Air Force of the Russian Federation, Colonel General Viktor Bondarev said that Russia would open an air base in Belarus. The base will be deployed in the town of Baranovichi, RIA Novosti reports.

"We have never planned to deploy an air base in Lida. It will be in Baranovichi. We are currently waiting for the adequate decision from the intergovernmental commission," said Bondarev, answering journalists' questions about the plans of the Russian Air Force in Belarus.

The general confirmed that there will be Su-27 fighter jets deployed at the base.

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The Eurasian Union has Been Harmed by Putin's Adventures in Ukraine

t was never meant as a return to the Soviet Union. When Kazakhstan's president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, first called for a Eurasian Union just over 20 years ago, he envisaged a grouping of individual states with individual interests coming together for the economic benefit of one another. Nazarbayev, an iron-fisted autocrat and the only president an independent Kazakhstan has ever known, cited, seemingly without irony, "the will of the people to integration" as he tried to justify the reintegration of independent states the Soviet Union's demise had left behind.

On May 29, Nazarbayev witnessed this goal finally come to fruition. Sort of. Alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, Nazarbayev signed the founding treaty of the Eurasian Union (EEU) in Astana, paving the way for the transition from their current customs union to the full-fledged EEU on Jan. 1, 2015. Putin called the signing an event of "epoch-making significance."

But Putin has a way of mangling rhetoric and reality. While the EEU seeks to rejoin the post-Soviet space in economic agglomeration -- and has even received interested partners from Vietnam to Syria -- it stands far from the goal Nazarbayev once held, and even further from what irredentist Putin would hope.

Rather than launching a wholesale effort at post-Soviet reintegration, the EEU has rapidly morphed into something far more degraded -- and has faced substantive pushback from states watching Putin attempt to shift the EEU into another vehicle for Russia's revanchism, displayed so obviously in Crimea. Where the concerns on the EEU were originally economic -- the benefits are discernibly slanted toward Moscow -- events in Ukraine have displayed that the Kremlin's neo-imperialism is back. "The original purpose of the Eurasian Union was to become a dominant regional economic organization, with a legal architecture controlled by Moscow," said Alexander Cooley, a political science professor at Barnard College. But Crimea ended up illustrating that Putin would much rather have something to "effectively lock countries into Moscow's political and economic orbit."

Modeled on the European Union's economic constructs, the new union will represent a market of 170 million, and will boast a total GDP of nearly $3 trillion. The EEU will serve as the maturation of the current customs union shared by the three nations, and will allow further economic integration -- increased free movement of goods, streamlined trade regulation, unified macroeconomic policy -- between member states. And the EEU has potential to keep growing. If Putin somehow manages to woo the remaining post-Soviet (non-Baltic) nations, the EEU's market could jump to some 300 million members and just under $4 trillion in combined GDP.

But that swell is far from plausible.

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Putin Pushes Harder on Eurasian Union Integration With Ukraine Crisis

After offering a coldly efficient example in Ukraine of the use of hard power, Russia’s paramount leader Vladimir Putin is turning his attention to shoring up Moscow’s soft power capabilities, namely keeping his vision for Eurasian unification on track. There are signs, however, that his Eurasian aspirations will be more difficult to fulfill than his Crimean land-grab.

Putin on March 5 convened a snap summit in Moscow, also attended by Kazakhstan’s Nursultan Nazarbayev and Belarus’ Alexandr Lukashenko. The meeting’s aim was perhaps more propagandistic than substantive, designed mainly as a show of diplomatic support amid Western efforts to isolate and punish Russia for what critics see as its de facto occupation of the Crimean peninsula. At the same time, it provided Putin an opportunity to test his cohorts’ resolve to press ahead with integration. Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus are currently co-joined in a customs union.

Putin’s Eurasian integration vision is widely seen as an ideological alternative to the EU that some have dubbed “Soviet Union lite.” Ukraine had been considered a key cog in Putin’s planned system. And now, with the Euromaidan Revolution poised to redirect Ukraine toward the West, Moscow policy planners are scrambling to make sure Eurasian unification sticks to the Kremlin timetable. A key date from the Kremlin’s standpoint is May 1, by which time a pact formally creating the Eurasian Economic Union (EAU) is due to be signed. Current customs union members – Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus – are expected to form the EAU’s cornerstone. Armenia and Kyrgyzstan also have pledged to join, with other formerly Soviet states potentially to follow.

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Hat tip to Randy.

Russia-Belarus-Kazahkstan Customs Union Ready for 2015 Launch

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on [Christmas Eve] the final pieces were in place for the 2015 launch of an economic union with Belarus and Kazakhstan that Moscow hopes can also be joined by Ukraine.

Putin promised following talks with Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev and Belarussian leader Alexander Lukashenko that the so-called Eurasian Economic Union would turn into a new source of growth for all involved.

The alliance would replace a much looser Eurasian Customs Union that Russia formed with the two ex-Soviet nations in an effort to build up a free trade rival to the 28-nation EU bloc.

"Government representatives of the troika (Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus) ... have developed the draft of the institutional part of the Eurasian Economic Union agreement," Putin said in televised remarks.

"This document determines the international legal status, organisational frameworks, the objectives and mechanisms of how the union will operate starting on January 1, 2015," Putin said.

Putin has made the creation of a post-Soviet economic union that could one day even be joined by nations such as Turkey and India the keystone project of his third Kremlin term.

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Russia Air Force Moves Su-27 Flanker Fighters to Base in Belarus

A Russian fighter jet unit has arrived at a Belarusian airbase where it will be stationed on alert duty as part of an integrated regional air defense network, Belarusian news agency BelaPAN reported.

Four Russian Air Force Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker fighter jets and technical personnel have been based at the Baranovichi airbase, BelaPAN said on Sunday.

The Russian Defense Ministry recently announced plans to deploy a fighter jet regiment in Belarus by 2015. The majority of the planes will be stationed at a future Russian airbase in Lida, a town in northwestern Belarus, near the Polish and Lithuanian borders.

The airbase will be Russia’s first on Belarusian territory in modern times and will consolidate defense cooperation under the auspices of the Union State of Russia and Belarus, defense officials in Moscow have said.

European defense officials have bristled at evidence of Russia’s increased military deployments close to NATO’s border, claiming it fuels tension with former Communist bloc countries in Central Europe and the Baltic States.

But Moscow has repeatedly said Russian-Belarus defense ties are a legitimate effort to ensure a solid defense for the countries’ Union State.

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A Call to Reform xSoviet Universities

Research: Discard Soviet doctorate systems

Author:

Alexander Gorobets

Exert:

The research performance of most former Soviet states is still low compared with that of many Western countries. In my view, progress will be stifled as long as the archaic academic systems passed down from the former Soviet Union persist.

I have analysed the research performance of several of these nations on the basis of their per capita gross expenditure on research and development from 1998 to 2010 and their number of research publications from 1998 to 2012.

Russia to Establish Air Base in Belarus

Russia plans to deploy fighter jets in Belarus this year and eventually establish an air base in the former Soviet republic, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday.

The moves would increase Russia's military presence in Belarus, viewed by Moscow as a buffer between Russia and NATO, and could unnerve neighboring members of the Western alliance.

Russia agreed in 2009 to set up a joint air defense system with Belarus and talks were held before then on establishing an air base there, but few concrete steps have been taken.

"We have begun considering the plan to create a Russian air base with fighter jets here," Shoigu said at a meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in the capital, Minsk.

"We hope that in 2015 there will be a regiment of warplanes (in Belarus) which will serve to defend our borders," Shoigu said in a portion of the meeting shown on Russian state television.

Russia Wargames Nuking, Invading Poland?

The armed forces are said to have carried out "war games" in which nuclear missiles were fired and troops practised an amphibious landing on the country's coast.

Documents obtained by Wprost, one of Poland's leading news magazines, said the exercise was carried out in conjunction with soldiers from Belarus.

The manoeuvres are thought to have been held in September and involved about 13,000 Russian and Belarusian troops.

Poland, which has strained relations with both countries, was cast as the "potential aggressor".

The documents state the exercises, code-named "West", were officially classified as "defensive" but many of the operations appeared to have an offensive nature.

The Russian air force practised using weapons from its nuclear arsenal, while in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, which neighbours Poland, Red Army forces stormed a "Polish" beach and attacked a gas pipeline.

The operation also involved the simulated suppression of an uprising by a national minority in Belarus – the country has a significant Polish population which has a strained relationship with authoritarian government of Belarus.

Real or not?

However, the use of nukes on the first roll of the dice is perfectly in line with the Russian military doctrine.

Munchy Crunchy Belarus? Or More Posturing?

The future of Belarus can no longer depend on Russia, President Alexander Lukashenko declared Friday, a day after talks between the once close ex-Soviet allies ended in acrimony.

Lukashenko, whose government was dubbed Europe's last dictatorship by the United States but is now courting closer ties with the European Union, said the days of Minsk "bowing down" to Moscow were over.

His extraordinary anti-Moscow tirade came a day after his talks with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Minsk were overshadowed by bitter disputes over Russian loans to Belarus and recent Belarussian overtures to the EU.

"It's not working out with Russia. We don't need to bow down. We don't need to whine and cry," his press service quoted Lukashenko as telling his government.

"We need to look for our happiness on a different part of the planet. I consciously say this in public. From this day on, that time has come to an end and another time has started."

mmm. This is gonna be "fun" to watch play out. How Russia reacts ought to be interesting. And telling.

Impact Timing Coincidence

Scientists have discovered only the second example of a meteorite impact that occurred at the same time as massive volcanic activity, in research published in the Journal of the Geological Society the week of Jan 12. The first time such a coincidence was observed, at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary, was the catastrophic event thought to be responsible for the extinction of the dinosaurs, 65 million years ago.

This new event, uncovered after the 17 km diameter Logoisk impact structure in Belarus was precisely dated, is thought to have taken place around 30 million years ago. The crater was dated using argon isotopes, and found to have occurred at a similar time to a period of massive volcanism known as the Afro-Arabian flood volcanism, which started in NW Yemen at around 30.9 Mya, and SW Yemen at around 29.0 Mya.

The impact also coincides broadly with a period of sudden global cooling and sea level fluctuation. The researchers, led by Sarah Sherlock at the Open University, argue that massive volcanic eruptions and meteorite impacts are likely to have coincided much more frequently than has previously been thought, but because the preservation of impact craters on Earth is poor much of the evidence for these coincidences is lost.

The relationships between meteorite impact craters, volcanism and changes in climate is a subject of much debate among scientists. Prior to the study, only one example of an impact coinciding with volcanism had been found: the Chicxulub and Boltysh impacts and the Deccan Traps flood volcanism, all of which occurred at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary. In 2002, the discovery of their coincidence with a global mass extinction led to debate over the causative links between meteorite impacts, volcanism and mass extinction events, and fuelled the search for more impacts at stratigraphic boundaries.

Unlike the Cretaceous-Tertiary event, the combination of the Logoisk impact and the Afro-Arabain flood volcanism does not seem to have caused an extinction event. The researchers suggest that the reason for this may be that the magnitude of the event was not sufficiently large in comparison. Whilst the Chicxulub crater associated with the extinction of the dinosaurs measures 170km in diameter and the Deccan Traps released around (2-4) x106 km3 of lava, in comparison the Logoisk impact structure measures 17km across and the Afro-Arabian flood volcanism is around 1.2 x106 km3 in volume.

As a result, the effects of each event were likely to have been very different. At the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary, it is thought that one of the deadly effects was the release of sulphur dioxide, either as acid rain or in the stratosphere, where it would have prevented heat from reaching the earth and caused massive global cooling. Around 8000 billion tons of SO2 are thought to have been released by the volcanism and meteorite impact. In comparison, the Logoisk impact and the Afro-Arabian volcanism are thought to have contributed only 30 billion tons of SO2.

Just interesting timing, folks. I'd be curious if the Malkanovitch Cycle was such that if there was an injection of ash and SO2 there would be sufficient to cross a tipping point since the warming was thought to be caused by methane releases. Without the methane in the atmosphere, this plausibly may have reset the thermostat, so to speak. It may not have too.

This impact, btw, is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too small to have done anything other than kill locals.

Putin's Renewed Interest in Belarus

Vladimir Putin could become the leader of a land even larger than Russia — a development that may hinge on talks beginning Thursday in neighboring Belarus.

Putin has unexpectedly revived efforts to create a single state from the two former Soviet republics — a merger that would expand his options for exercising power after he steps down from the Russian presidency next year.

Putin heads to the Belarusian capital, Minsk, on Thursday for discussions of a framework for the long-debated union, fleshing out an existing agreement that has meant little in practice.

A merger of Russia and Belarus could allow Putin to leave the Russian presidency as promised in May yet still remain a chief of state.

"I wouldn't be surprised if Putin tries to speed up a union with Belarus ... to become the president of the unified state," said Gennady Zyuganov, Russia's Communist Party chief.

Personal suspicion: Putin will find a way to incorporate Belarus directly rather than make a state atop Russia. We shall see. We shall see if anything comes of this. We shall see.

A Belarus Blog

It's interesting and mostly a page of links to things Belarusian and seems to be updated once every 3 to 4 days in a magazine-esque format. It's worth a look.

Russia to reduce gas supplies to Belarus

Russia's state-controlled gas monopoly said Wednesday that it will reduce natural gas supplies to Belarus by 45 percent as of Friday after Minsk failed to pay in full for previous gas shipments.

this is for a missed outstanding payment, at least officially, but as my wife says, with russians, look nothing is ever on the surface of what they say they are doing. They like to think they're more clever than they are, so sayeth she.