Oak Ridge National Lab Model Attempts to Predict County Level Population Growth in US

Researchers at the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory have developed a population distribution model that provides unprecedented county-level predictions of where people will live in the U.S. in the coming decades.

Initially developed to assist in the siting of new energy infrastructure, the team's model has a broad range of implications from urban planning to climate change adaptation. The study is published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

"We do a census every 10 years because those data help us do long-term socioeconomic planning," said Budhendra Bhaduri, who leads ORNL's Geographic Information Science and Technology group. "Population projection numbers are important, but many pressing societal needs also require an understanding of where people are going to be. This has always been a challenge; we've never had a good method to make future projections spatially explicit."

The new model builds on years of research in the development of two other ORNL technologies that supply geographical distribution of population: LandScan Global provides one-kilometer resolution for the world and LandScan USA provides 90-meter resolution for the U.S. Incorporating regional variables such as land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, roads and population movement allowed the researchers to refine future population distributions by county.

"We took the U.S. national population total and downscaled to the county level to examine how local population growths vary geographically," said ORNL's Jacob McKee, the study's lead author.

In the study's projections for 2030 and 2050, the researchers set constraints for each contiguous U.S. county under a business-as-usual scenario based on historical conditions. The team's analysis of this scenario found that sprawl growth was projected to be most prevalent in the following counties: El Dorado, CA, Maricopa, AZ, and Riverside, CA.

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IBM Wins Two Supercomputer Contracts Worth $325 Million

In a Department of Energy deal worth $325 million, IBM will build two massive supercomputers called Sierra and Summit that combine a new supercomputing approach from Big Blue with Nvidia processing accelerators and Mellanox high-speed networking.

The companies and US government agency announced the deal on Friday ahead of a twice-yearly supercomputing conference that begins Monday. The show focuses on the high-end systems -- sometimes as large as a basketball court -- that are used to calculate car aerodynamics, detect structural weaknesses in airplane designs and predict the performance of new drugs.

The funds will pay for two machines, one for civilian research at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee and one for nuclear weapons simulation at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California. They'll each clock in with a peak performance surpassing 100 petaflops -- that's a quadrillion calculations per second as measured in the Top500 list that ranks the world's fastest machines. Trying to do that with modern laptops would take something like 3 million of them, Nvidia estimates.

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The Manufacturing Revolution is Coming and Oak Ridge National Lab is Playing its Part

The challenge [for 3D printing] is to think beyond current materials and designs. To that end, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in Tennessee is placing thousands of 3-D printers in U.S. schools to give future designers and engineers experience with the technology. Already the lab has helped local high schools in the First Robotics competition—including building the first all-additive robot. Beginning this year with 250 machines, the lab plans to place 3,000 printers next year, then 4,000 and finally 28,000 so every high school in First Robotics has one.

Available desktop 3-D printers are being tested at ORNL to assess their capabilities. The lab’s goal is to move from prototyping to production and enable distributed, “democratized” manufacturing where 3-D printers are a source of revenue for everybody, says Lonnie Love, group leader for automation, robotics and manufacturing—a high-tech return to the cottage industries that predated the Industrial Revolution.

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Oak Ridge National Lab Offline

A highly sophisticated cyber attack -- known as Advanced Persistent Threat or APT -- forced Oak Ridge National Laboratory to shut down all Internet access and email systems over the weekend.

Those restrictions will remain in place until lab officials and others investigating the attack are sure the situation is well controlled and manageable, ORNL Director Thom Mason said today.

Mason said he expects that email functions may be restored Tuesday on a limited basis, with no attachments allowed and restrictions on length. He said he couldn't speculate on when Internet access will be restored fully, even though the shutdown limits many of the lab's functions.

"We made the decision (at about midnight Friday) to close down the connection to the Internet to make sure there was no data exfiltrated from the lab while we got the system cleaned up," he said.

The lab's cyber specialists had been monitoring the attack and recommended further action after it looked like efforts were underway to remove data from ORNL systems, Mason said.

Mason said the APT at ORNL is similar to attacks in recent times on Google, a security company known as RSA and other government institutions and corporations.

"In this case, it was initiated with phishing email, which led to the download of some software that took advantage of a 'zero day exploit,' a vulnerability for which there is no patch yet issued," he said. The vulnerability involved Internet Explorer, he said.

bah.

Simulating the Bølling-Allerød Warming

By accurately modeling Earth's last major global warming — and answering pressing questions about its causes — scientists led by a University of Wisconsin-Madison climatologist are unraveling the intricacies of the kind of abrupt climate shifts that may occur in the future.

"We want to know what will happen in the future, especially if the climate will change abruptly," says Zhengyu Liu, a UW-Madison professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences and director of the Center for Climatic Research in the Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies. "The problem is, you don't know if your model is right for this kind of change. The important thing is validating your model."

To do so, Liu and his colleagues run their mode back in time and match the results of the climate simulation with the physical evidence of past climate.

Starting with the last glacial maximum about 21,000 years ago, Liu's team simulated atmospheric and oceanic conditions through what scientists call the Bølling-Allerød warming, the Earth's last major temperature hike, which occurred about 14,500 years ago. The simulation fell in close agreement with conditions — temperatures, sea levels and glacial coverage — collected from fossil and geologic records.

"It's our most serious attempt to simulate this last major global warming event, and it's a validation of the model itself, as well," Liu says.

The results of the new climate modeling experiments are presented today (July 17) in the journal Science.

The group's simulations were executed on "Phoenix" and "Jaguar," a pair of Cray supercomputers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Oak Ridge, Tenn., and helped pin down the contributions of three environmental factors as drivers of the Bølling-Allerød warming: an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, the jump-start of stalled heat-moving ocean currents and a large buildup of subsurface heat in the ocean while those currents were dormant.

The climate dominoes began to fall during that period after glaciers reached their maximum coverage, blanketing most of North America, Liu explains. As glaciers melted, massive quantities of water poured into the North Atlantic, lowering the ocean salinity that helps power a major convection current that acts like a conveyor belt to carry warm tropical surface water north and cooler, heavier subsurface water south.

As a result, according to the model, ocean circulation stopped. Without warm tropical water streaming north, the North Atlantic cooled and heat backed up in southern waters. Subsequently, glacial melt slowed or stopped as well, and eventually restarted the overturning current — which had a much larger reserve of heat to haul north.

"All that stored heat is released like a volcano, and poured out over decades," Liu explains. "That warmed up Greenland and melted (arctic) sea ice."

The model showed a 15-degree Celsius increase in average temperatures in Greenland and a 5-meter increase in sea level over just a few centuries, findings that squared neatly with the climate of the period as represented in the physical record.

"Being able to successfully simulate thousands of years of past climate for the first time with a comprehensive climate model is a major scientific achievement," notes Bette Otto-Bliesner, an atmospheric scientist and climate modeler at National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and co-author of the Science report. "This is an important step toward better understanding how the world's climate could change abruptly over the coming centuries with increasing melting of the ice caps."

The rate of ice melt during the Bølling-Allerød warming is still at issue, but its consequences are not, Liu says. The modelers simulated both a slow decrease in melt and a sudden end to melt run-off. In both cases, the result was a 15-degree warming.

"That happened in the past," Liu says. "The question is, in the future, if you have a global warming and Greenland melts, will it happen again?"

At some point this will be up over at Science.

Top 500 List

Despite the many press releases to the contrary, Los Alamos (WOO!) continues to hold the top spot with their Roadrunner system (meet-meet!) over Oak Ridge's Jaguar, (note: egg->cpu, not a good pointer). We're on there with our Franklin system at #7: we did a lil upgrade. ;)

The Chinese are present in the top 10, too, btw! Running ... Windows. ew.

There's a small analysis here so you can get a look at the trends.

Oh, yeah, it's Supercomputing 08 in Austin. I'm not there, but there's a lot of news that comes out from this conference. Expect more this week from me.