Japan is Considering Building an ASAT Weapon

The government is considering launching a satellite to intercept foreign countries’ military satellites in the event of an emergency, as part of efforts to strengthen deterrence amid a rapidly increasing military threat in outer space, as seen in the development by China and Russia of satellites that can attack others, according to several government sources.

The government plans to make a formal decision on the introduction of such an intercepting satellite by the end of the next fiscal year so it can be launched in the mid-2020s, the sources said.

link.

Russia may be Testing its Nudol ASAT Weapon

Russia appears to be testing its Nudol ASAT system from Plesetsk. It issued a NOTAM warning that closed several areas on 14 June 2019. The closed areas look very much like those that were closed in April 2018 and in December 2018.

It was also closed on June 30th, 2019.

link.

The Chinese are Working on Laser Weapons

Chinese media have reported that a prototype laser weapon is being tested by the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).

An article published on 5 April on the Sina news website contains several screengrabs taken from footage broadcast by China Central Television (CCTV) showing a trainable optical device mounted on a mobile chassis with a large main lens.

link.

Commercial satellite images have provided the first photographs of a secret Chinese anti-satellite laser base in western Xinjiang province, along with other high-technology weapons facilities.

The laser facility is located near a lake and is about 145 miles south of the Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang.

The facility was discovered by retired Indian Army Col. Vinayak Bhat, a satellite imagery analyst who specializes on China.

link.

Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan on April 9 bluntly asserted that China’s PLA is “deploying directed energy (DE) weapons,” adding that “Russia is doing many of the same things.” In perhaps the strongest rhetoric yet from a Trump administration official about counterspace threats to US satellite systems, Shanahan said: “Both China and Russia have weaponized space with the intent to hold American space capabilities at risk.”

Shanahan’s comments about the state of Chinese and Russian DE counterspace weapons development go a step beyond the February-released assessment of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). That characterized both countries as pursuing DE counterspace weapons but stopped short of definitively finding that they had deployed such weapons.

“China likely (emphasis added) is pursuing laser weapons to disrupt, degrade, or damage satellites and their sensors and possibly already has a limited capability to employ laser systems against satellite sensors,” the DIA said in its first ever assessment of threats to US space assets.

The DIA and Shanahan do agree on the view that China likely will field a ground-based laser weapon that can counter low-orbit space-based sensors by next year.

link.

Russia may Have Developed a new Coorbital Spy Sat in Support of its ASAT Program

Russia has been working since 2011 to develop a next-generation on-orbit anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon, according to two new studies by U.S. nongovernmental organizations.

The Secure World Foundation’s “Global Counterspace Report,” finds that the Russian work on a space-based ASAT codenamed “Burevestnik” (also known as Project 14K168) is being undertaken in tandem with a larger effort to develop a space-based space situational awareness (SSA) capability. The SWF report, and one by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) were released today and based on open source information.

“Open source research done by analyst Bart Hendrickx suggests that the Cosmos 2491, 2499, 2504, and 2521 satellites are part of a project started in 2011 to develop space-based space situational awareness (SSA) capabilities and may play a supporting role for other counterspace weapons,” the SWF report says. “Publicly-available documents and patents suggest a link between those Cosmos satellites and procurement for a project designated Nivelir … under the control of the Central Scientific Research Institute for Chemistry and Mechanics (TsNIIKhM). Hendrickx also has uncovered evidence suggesting there is an active Russian co-orbital ASAT program codenamed Burevestnik (“Petrel”) or project 14K168, also managed by TsNIIKhM and also started in 2011.” Burevestnik “may be designed to target GEO satellites, although it may be targeted against LEO satellites instead.”

link.

India Shot Down a Satellite

(AGI simulation of the intercept)

At a little over 11.10am Wednesday, a 13 metre-long, 19-ton missile took off from the Dr APJ Abdul Kalam Island launch complex off the coast of Odisha. Three minutes and 10 seconds later, it struck the 6,900mm-wide heart of a Microstat-R satellite — orbiting 268km above the earth — over the Bay of Bengal, blowing it to bits. India launched the satellite almost two months ago to the day, on January 29.

A little over an hour later, at 12.20 pm, after a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a rare address to the nation that with the success of Mission Shakti, India had become only the fourth member of an exclusive club of nations — with the US, Russia and China — to have anti-satellite missile capability.

Soon after the missile struck the satellite, Modi and national security adviser Ajit Doval were informed by Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO) chief Satheesh Reddy and Indian Space Research Organisation (Isro) chief K Sivan over the phone, using a pre-decided coded message.

link.

2nd link.

Jane's weighs in.  As does Space News.

The US military was immediately aware of India's test.

Reuters factbox.

India claims the test was deter others from attacking its sats.

PM Modi hailed the test as proof of India's military prowess.

India's election commission is investigating if the test was actually an election ploy.

Some companies are condemning the test.

India's test was rather different than China's.

The Indian project was called "Project XSV-1" and India has been working on it for at least 31 months.

Launch to kill was 168 seconds, supposedly.

Russia Tested a Nudol AntiSatellite Weapon on Dec 23, 2018

According to US sources, quoted by CNBC, Russia conducted a test of the Nudol ASAT system on December 23, 2018. The missile was launched from a mobile launcher from a test site in Plesetsk. The launch complex used to test the Nudol missile was found near the site used for Thyklon space launches.

That would be the second Nudol test in 2018 - the first one took place in April 2018. CNBC also quotes a source as saying that it was "the seventh overall test of the system." There were indeed three launches in 2014-2015 (one of them unsuccessful) and two in 2016 - in May and in December. Apparently there were no launches in 2017.

link.

Clearly, the US is the aggressor in space.

China Will Deploy AntiSatellite Laser in 2020

China's military is expected to deploy a laser weapon capable of destroying or damaging U.S. military satellites in low earth orbit in the next year, the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency disclosed in a report on space threats.

The Chinese directed energy weapon is among an array of space warfare tools that include ground-based anti-satellite (ASAT) missiles, electronic jammers, cyber attacks, and small satellites Beijing plans to use in attacks on U.S. satellites in a future conflict.

"China likely is pursuing laser weapons to disrupt, degrade, or damage sat­ellites and their sensors and possibly already has a limited capability to employ laser systems against satellite sensors," the unclassified intelligence report said.

"China likely will field a ground-based laser weapon that can counter low-orbit space-based sensors by 2020, and by the mid-to-late 2020s, it may field higher power systems that extend the threat to the structures of non-optical satellites."

It was the first time a U.S. intelligence agency disclosed details of the ASAT laser deployment plans.

link.

Russia and China Will Have Operational Anti Satellite Weapons in the Next Few Years

Experts have warned for some time that wars in space are not just Hollywood fiction. And the scenario appears increasingly more likely, according to the latest analysis by the U.S. intelligence community.

“We assess that, if a future conflict were to occur involving Russia or China, either country would justify attacks against U.S. and allied satellites as necessary to offset any perceived U.S. military advantage derived from military, civil or commercial space systems,” warns the 2018 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, released this week by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

The United States has benefitted from a tidal wave of innovation in the space industry, but so have many other nations. “Foreign countries — particularly China and Russia — will continue to expand their space-based reconnaissance, communications, and navigation systems in terms of the numbers of satellites, the breadth of their capability, and the applications for use,” said the report.

Both Russia and China continue to pursue anti-satellite weapons knowing that, if successfully employed, could undermine U.S. military capabilities, analysts noted. “Russia and China aim to have nondestructive and destructive counter-space weapons available for use during a potential future conflict.”

U.S. intelligence predicts that “destructive” Russian and Chinese anti-satellite weapons probably will reach “initial operational capability in the next few years.” China’s military is setting up specialized units and has begun “initial operational training with counter-space capabilities that it has been developing, such as ground-launched anti-satellite missiles.”

link.

2nd link.

Russia Reviving Antisatellite Laser on A-60 Aircraft

Russia is preparing to renew flight testing of a high-power flying laser designed to operate as an anti-satellite weapon, the Tass news agency reported. Mounted on a modified Ilyushin Il-76MD-90E transport plane the airborne laser laboratory aircraft flew for its first test mission in August 19, 1981. Two aircraft were modified and equipped for the tests that ceased following the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 2009 the project was revived as the A-60SE, mounting the original 1LK222 laser. This laser weapon will likely be used to dazzle adversary satellites or burning through sensitive optics and sensors using intensive enery laser bursts. With an effective range of 1,500 km (930 miles) such a laser can target reconnaissance satellites orbiting at low earth orbit (LEO). The effect on target range to temporarily disrupt to disabling adversary reconnaissance or missile warning satellites. Some sources claim the program also aims to develope a more powerful laser, that will be able to defeat aircraft and missiles.

The program discontinued in 2011 due to lack of funding but has apparently regained interest among Moscow’s strategists as it is considered as an asymmetrical response to looming space-based threats. Platforms suggested for the operational systems may be the original, refurbished A-60SE, newer Ilyushin-476 platforms, or the prospective strategic bomber PAK-DA.

The Russian laser weapon is not equivalent to the American anti-ballistic laser (ABL) developed and tested in the early 2000s. The United States developed a much more powerful chemical laser designated YAL-1. It was designed as an anti-missile proof of concept. YAL-1 demonstrated such capabilities in 2010, but the results were incolclusive and the project was scraped in 2011. According to some media sources the Russians could be considering a similar high power chemical laser for the ‘Sokol Eshelon’ (Falcon-Eshelon) program, developed by Voronezh-based Khimprom-Avtomatika corporation.

link.

China Pressing Ahead With ASAT System

China’s Defense Ministry confirmed today that it was pressing ahead with anti-missile system tests after pictures appeared on state television, depicting a successful missile intercept test conducted in 2010. The Chinese announcement coincides with growing tension over South Korea’s decision to allow the U.S. deployment of THAAD anti-missile system in the Korean peninsula.

According to Yang Yujun, spokesman of the People’s Republic of China’s Defence Ministry, the development of missile defense capabilities is an essential part of the country’s national security strategy. “It will improve the self-defense capability of China and is not targeting any particular country and will not affect international strategic stability,” Yujun said, adding that China would consider taking unspecified measures to maintain strategic balance in the region. China is unimpressed by Washington claims that the introduction of THAAD poses no threat to China.

link.

China also released video of its missile defense test.

The Dates for Russia's Anti Satellite Weapon Tests

As it turns out, information about tests of the Nudol ASAT system has been hiding literally in plain sight - in Jonathan McDowell's log of suborbital launches. A colleague alerted me to the fact that dates and times in the list are quite accurate. "GNIIP" in the table is the GNIIP-53 test site otherwise known as Plesetsk.

The list includes three tests of a 14Ts033 (14Ц033) system, which is apparently the designation of the entire system (rather than 14А042, which appears to be the missile). There were three test launches - on 12 August 2014, 22 April 2015, and 18 November 2015. As we know, only the third one was successful (although none of them involved an intercept).

link.

Russia, China now Able to Destroy American Space Assets

China and Russia are preparing to attack and disrupt critical U.S. military and intelligence satellites in a future conflict with crippling space missile, maneuvering satellite, and laser attacks, senior Pentagon and intelligence officials told Congress on Tuesday.

Air Force Gen. John Hyten, commander of the Air Force Space Command, said the threat to U.S. space systems has reached a new tipping point, and after years of post-Cold War stagnation foreign states are focused on curbing U.S. space systems.

“Adversaries are developing kinetic, directed-energy, and cyber tools to deny, degrade, and destroy our space capabilities,” Hyten said in a prepared statement for a hearing of the House Armed Service strategic forces subcommittee.

“They understand our reliance on space, and they understand the competitive advantage we derive from space. The need for vigilance has never been greater,” the four-star general said.

link.

Russia Claims to Have Successfully Tested "Nudol," a new Anti Satellite Missile, on November 18th

Russia carried out the first successful flight test of a new anti-satellite missile this month, marking a new phase in the global militarization of space.

The flight test of Russia’s direct ascent anti-satellite missile, known as Nudol, took place Nov. 18, according to defense officials familiar with reports of the test.

It was the first successful test in three attempts, said officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.

With the successful anti-satellite missile test, Russia has joined China in arming its forces with strategic space warfare weapons.

Twenty days earlier China conducted a flight test of its anti-satellite missile. The Dong Neng-3 direct ascent missile was tested on Oct. 30 in western China.

link.

Russian spin.

The New Arms Race in Space

A new arms race in our skies threatens the satellites that control everything from security to communications

An unlikely memorial runs across the middle of the marketplace in Kettering — an otherwise unremarkable English market town. This slab of granite, set into the paving as part of a timeline of local history, reads “Russian Satellites: Grammar School Beats Nasa”. Etched into the stone is the distinctive outline of a sputnik orbiter.

Kettering Grammar School — like the space race — is long gone. But for a period it was on the front line of the extraterrestrial battle between Washington and Moscow. The Kettering Group — the school’s enthusiastic science masters and their eager pupils — became the world’s foremost amateur satellite sleuths, tracking secret Soviet launches and uncovering the location of a previously secret Russian cosmodrome from the workaday shire town.

[...]

Military officials from the US, Europe and Asia spoken to by the Financial Times confirm in private what the Kettering Group and other amateur stargazers have been watching publicly. Almost every country with strategically important satellite constellations and its own launch facilities is considering how to defend — and weaponise — their extraterrestrial assets. “I don’t think there is a single G7 nation that isn’t now looking at space security as one of its highest military priorities and areas of strategic concern,” says one senior European intelligence official.

“The threat is increasing and this is a major concern,” says Frank Rose, US assistant secretary of state for arms control. “Both Russia and China are developing ASAT [anti-satellite weapon] capabilities to hold US systems at risk. Now, we don’t believe it’s in anyone’s interest to engage in a space arms race . . . We don’t want conflict in outer space. But be assured, we will be able to operate in a degraded space environment. We’ve made it clear that we will do what is necessary to protect the space assets of the US and our allies against potential attack.”

link.

Did China Test an Antisatellite Missile on October 30th?

China last month conducted a test of a new missile capable of taking out US satellites as a part of Beijing’s growing arsenal in space warfare. The test of a Dong Neng-3 exoatmospheric vehicle took place on October 30, and was conducted from the Korla Missile Test Complex in western China, according to two defense officials who spoke to the Washington Free Beacon.

The Chinese media reported on November 1 that the test was of a missile defense interceptor, but the defense officials said the missile is a direct-ascent type designed to destroy satellites. US State Department and Pentagon officials declined to comment on the test to the paper.

link.

second link.

What is Russia Doing With its Rendezvous and Proximity Satellite Tests

Five years ago, [the author] provided an analysis of the rendezvous and proximity operations (RPO) of two Chinese satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO). (See “Dancing in the dark: The orbital rendezvous of SJ-12 and SJ-06F”, The Space Review, August 30, 2010.) The article compared the event with similar RPO activities by American and European satellites and concluded that even though there was evidence the two Chinese satellites “bumped” into each other, it was more likely to be the demonstration of an on-orbit satellite inspection capability than an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon. The article also highlighted the fact that RPO would be a significant policy challenge for the future of space security and stability. In 2013, another launch of three small Chinese satellites raised further concerns when one satellite began conducting another series of RPO with an older Chinese satellite, first in July 2013 and again in May 2014.

Although China’s RPO activities in space are still a significant concern for the US national security space community, Russian activities have recently become more of a concern as well. Four Russian space launches in 2013 and 2014 in particular have sparked interest. Three of the launches placed small Russian military satellites into LEO; two of those satellites have conducted RPO activities with Russian rocket stages, and one appears to have “bumped” into the rocket stage near which it was maneuvering. The fourth launch was a Russian military satellite to geostationary Earth orbit (GSO). In the one year since its launch, the satellite has moved several times to different positions in the GSO belt of active satellites. Two of those stops were somewhat close to newly launched Russian satellites, and the third was between and very close to two Intelsat commercial communications satellites.

link.

The Coming War in Space

Air Force Space Command’s evolving mission to protect U.S. military and spy satellites was recently featured in a “60 Minutes” report.

The Aug. 3 segment gave an interesting look at the command based at Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado, as well as its subordinate units and its leaders, including Gen. John Hyten, whom we covered earlier this year at the annual Space Symposium.

Besides cool footage of the laser firing at the Starfire Optical Range in Albuquerque, New Mexico (the laser helps a telescope better track adversary satellites), the segment was noteworthy for its discussion of the possible coming war in space — and America’s limited ability to thwart attacks against its most prized spacecraft in geosynchronous orbit.

Without assets in space to provide GPS coordinates to precision-guided bombs, imagery from drones and communication links to troops, among other advantages, “You go back to World War II. You go back to Industrial Age warfare,” Hyten told the CBS News program.

link.

China Developing CounterSpace, Antisatellite Weapons at a Furious Pace

China is designing weapons to counter advanced Western satellite technology using directed energy weapons and jammers and may have already tested some, according to a Friday Chinese military assessment to Congress.

The West — particularly the U.S. — relies on ever expanding constellations of communications and surveillance satellites to maintain its information edge over potential rivals and China is seeking ways to erode that advantage in the event of a conflict, according to the Military and Security Developments
Involving the People’s Republic of China 2015 report to Congress.

“China continues to develop a variety of capabilities designed to limit or prevent the use of space- based assets by adversaries during a crisis or conflict, including the development of directed-energy weapons and satellite jammers,” read the report.

Dubbed counterspace, the efforts follow several demonstrations of China’s capabilities to interdict satellites with ground-based missiles in the last several years.

Perhaps the most well known is Jan. 11, 2007 test in which a modified Chinese ballistic missile successfully destroyed a defunct weather satellite in polar orbit — littering Earth’s orbit with debris and surprising the West.

Since then, the Pentagon report has cited several instances in which it appears the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has conducted similar — albeit non-destructive — tests.

link.

China Tests Anti Satellite Missile on 7/23/2014

The U.S. says China has tested a missile designed to destroy satellites and is urging Beijing to refrain from destabilizing actions.

State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf said the "non-destructive" test occurred Wednesday. She said a previous destructive test of the system in 2007 created thousands of pieces of dangerous debris in space.

Harf said Friday that the continued development and testing of destructive anti-satellite systems threaten the long-term security and sustainability of the outer-space environment that all nations depend upon.

China's state-run Xinhua (shihn-wah) news agency, citing a Defense Ministry statement, reported a successful missile interception test conducted from land within Chinese territory late Wednesday.

link.

Japan, America Working to Defend Their Satellites From China's Capabilities

In May 2013 the Chinese government conducted what it called a science space mission from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center in southwest China. Half a world away, Brian Weeden, a former U.S. Air Force officer, wasn’t buying it. The liftoff took place at night and employed a powerful rocket as well as a truck-based launch vehicle—all quite unusual for a science project, he says.

In a subsequent report for the Secure World Foundation, the space policy think tank where he works, Weeden concluded that the Chinese launch was more likely a test of a mobile rocket booster for an antisatellite (ASAT) weapon that could reach targets in geostationary orbit about 22,236 miles above the equator. That’s the stomping grounds of expensive U.S. spacecraft that monitor battlefield movements, detect heat from the early stages of missile launches, and help orchestrate drone fleets. “This is the stuff the U.S. really cares about,” Weeden says.

The Pentagon never commented in detail on last year’s launch—and the Chinese have stuck to their story. U.S. and Japanese analysts say China has the most aggressive satellite attack program in the world. It has staged at least six ASAT missile tests over the past nine years, including the destruction of a defunct Chinese weather satellite in 2007. “It’s part of a Chinese bid for hegemony, which is not just about controlling the oceans but airspace and, as an extension of that, outer space,” says Minoru Terada, deputy secretary-general of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

Besides testing missiles that can intercept and destroy satellites, the Chinese have developed jamming techniques to disrupt satellite communications. In addition, says Lance Gatling, president of Nexial Research, an aerospace consultant in Tokyo, the Chinese have studied ground-based lasers that could take down a satellite’s solar panels, and satellites equipped with grappling arms that could co-orbit and then disable expensive U.S. hardware.

To defend themselves against China, the U.S. and Japan are in the early stages of integrating their space programs as part of negotiations to update their defense policy guidelines. In May, Washington and Tokyo discussed ways to coordinate their GPS systems to better track what’s going on in space and on the oceans. A recent Japanese cabinet decision eased long-standing limits on the military forces’ ability to come to the aid of allies under attack.

link.