Evidence of "El Nino" Like Cycles From the Siderian PaleoProterozoic Huronian Glaciations

Climatic cycles recorded in glacially influenced rhythmites of the Gowganda Formation, Huronian Supergroup

Authors:

Howe et al

Abstract:

The Gowganda Formation of the 2.45-2.2 Ga Huronian Supergroup contains glacially-induced, varve-like rhythmites that potentially preserve a detailed record of climatic conditions during the Paleoproterozoic Era. Four rhythmic couplet thickness records were measured at two outcrops near Wharncliffe, Ontario for the purpose of time-series analysis. The couplets, which range from 1 – 32 mm thick, are composed of alternating layers of siltstone and claystone. Time-series analysis of the couplet thickness records using the MTM Toolkit of Mann and Lees (1996) consistently revealed periodicities in the range of 2.2-2.9 couplets per cycle, which is consistent with climatic cycles such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) observed in modern times. This periodicity suggests that the rhythmic couplets represent annual deposits (i.e. varves). Evidence for the presence of cycles at 3.0-4.9 couplets, 6.6-6.9 couplets, 8.8-9.2 couplets, 22.8 couplets, and 30.1-31.0 couplets were also observed in some couplet thickness records; however, the presence of these longer term cycles was inconsistent from site to site.

Yellow-bellied Sea Snakes Wash up on Southern California Beach

A venomous sea snake washed up on a Southern California beach recently, striking fear in the hearts of beachgoers but eliciting excitement from the scientists who study these marine reptiles.

The stranded snake, which was dead when it was discovered on Dec. 12, was a yellow-bellied sea snake (Pelamis platura), the most widespread marine snake in the world. But despite its wide range of habitats, this snake isn't usually observed in the waters off the coast of Southern California, as it tends to keep to the warmer waters just south of that coastline, closer to Baja California, Mexico. Yet, in 2015, two of these critters washed up on California beaches, leading many to wonder why the snake is venturing outside its normal habitat.

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Indonesian Wild Fires, Palm Oil Trade Linked to El Nino?

A fire with global connections

Author:

Gross

Abstract:

The 2015 wildfires in Indonesia are possibly the largest environmental disaster of the century so far. They connect and highlight important global issues including climate change, El Niño, and deforestation driven by the booming global trade with palm oil.

El Niño Strongly Influences Flooding Around the World

Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

Authors:

Ward et al

Abstract:

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions.

 One of the potential outcomes of global warming is a permanent el nino.

Did the Pliocene Neogene Have a Permanent El Nino?

Simulating Pliocene warmth and a permanent El Niño-like state: the role of cloud albedo

Authors:

Burls et al

Abstract:

Available evidence suggests that during the early Pliocene (4-5 Ma) the mean east–west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the equatorial Pacific Ocean was significantly smaller than today, possibly reaching only 1-2°C. The meridional SST gradients were also substantially weaker, implying an expanded ocean warm pool in low latitudes. Subsequent global cooling led to the establishment of the stronger, modern temperature gradients. Given our understanding of the physical processes that maintain the present-day cold tongue in the east, warm pool in the west and hence sharp temperature contrasts, determining the key factors that maintained early Pliocene climate still presents a challenge for climate theories and models. This study demonstrates how different cloud properties could provide a solution. We show that a reduction in the meridional gradient in cloud albedo can sustain reduced meridional and zonal SST gradients, an expanded warm pool and warmer thermal stratification in the ocean, weaker Hadley and Walker circulations in the atmosphere. Having conducted a range of hypothetical modified cloud albedo experiments, we arrive at our Pliocene simulation, which shows good agreement with proxy SST data from major equatorial and coastal upwelling regions, the tropical warm pool, mid and high latitudes, and available subsurface temperature data. As suggested by the observations, the simulated Pliocene-like climate sustains a robust ENSO despite the reduced mean east–west SST gradient. Our results demonstrate that cloud albedo changes may be a critical element of Pliocene climate and that simulating the meridional SST gradient correctly is central to replicating the geographical patterns of Pliocene warmth.

Tropical Belt Widening is Being Driven by Natural and Anthrogenic Reasons

Recent studies have shown that the Earth's tropical belt — demarcated, roughly, by the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn — has progressively expanded since at least the late 1970s. Several explanations for this widening have been proposed, such as radiative forcing due to greenhouse gas increase and stratospheric ozone depletion.

Now, a team of climatologists, led by researchers at the University of California, Riverside, posits that the recent widening of the tropical belt is primarily caused by multi-decadal sea surface temperature variability in the Pacific Ocean. This variability includes the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability that works like a switch every 30 years or so between two different circulation patterns in the North Pacific Ocean. It also includes, the researchers say, anthropogenic pollutants, which act to modify the PDO.

Study results appear March 16 in Nature Geoscience.

"Prior analyses have found that climate models underestimate the observed rate of tropical widening, leading to questions on possible model deficiencies, possible errors in the observations, and lack of confidence in future projections," said Robert J. Allen, an assistant professor of climatology in UC Riverside's Department of Earth Sciences, who led the study. "Furthermore, there has been no clear explanation for what is driving the widening."

Now Allen's team has found that the recent tropical widening is largely driven by the PDO.

"Although this widening is considered a 'natural' mode of climate variability, implying tropical widening is primarily driven by internal dynamics of the climate system, we also show that anthropogenic pollutants have driven trends in the PDO," Allen said. "Thus, tropical widening is related to both the PDO and anthropogenic pollutants."

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