The Great Plains may be Growing Eastward

In 1878, the American geologist and explorer John Wesley Powell drew an invisible line in the dirt-a very long line. It was the 100th meridian west, the longitude he identified as the boundary between the humid eastern United States and the arid Western plains. Running south to north, the meridian cuts northward through the eastern states of Mexico, and on to Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, the Dakotas, and the Canadian province of Manitoba on its way to the pole. Powell, best known for exploring the Grand Canyon and other parts of the West, was wary of large-scale settlement in that often harsh region, and tried convincing Congress to lay out water- and land-management districts crossing state lines to deal with environmental constraints. Western political leaders hated the idea-they feared this might limit development, and their own power-and it never went anywhere. It was not the first time that politicians would ignore the advice of scientists.

Now, 140 years later, scientists are looking again at the 100th meridian. In two just-published papers, they examine how it has played out in history so far, and what the future may hold. They confirm that the divide has turned out to be very real, as reflected by population and agriculture on opposite sides. They say also that the line appears to be slowly moving eastward, due to climate change. They say it will almost certainly continue shifting in coming decades, expanding the arid climate of the western plains into what we think of as the Midwest. The implications for farming and other pursuits could be huge.

link.

"Late Antique Little Ice Age" Contributed to Decline of Eastern Roman Empire, Bolstered Arab Conquests?

Researchers from the international Past Global Changes (PAGES) project write in the journal Nature Geoscience that they have identified an unprecedented, long-lasting cooling in the northern hemisphere 1500 years ago. The drop in temperature immediately followed three large volcanic eruptions in quick succession in the years 536, 540 and 547 AD (also known as the Common Era CE). Volcanoes can cause climate cooling by ejecting large volumes of small particles - sulfate aerosols - that enter the atmosphere blocking sunlight.

Within five years of the onset of the "Late Antique Little Ice Age", as the researchers have dubbed it, the Justinian plague pandemic swept through the Mediterranean between 541 and 543 AD, striking Constantinople and killing millions of people in the following centuries. The authors suggest these events may have contributed to the decline of the eastern Roman Empire.

Lead author, dendroclimatologist Ulf Büntgen from the Swiss Federal Research Institute said, "This was the most dramatic cooling in the Northern Hemisphere in the past 2000 years."

A later "Little Ice Age" between 14th and 19th centuries has been well documented and linked to political upheavals and plague pandemics in Europe, but the new study is the first to provide a comprehensive climate analysis across both Central Asia and Europe during this earlier period.

"With so many variables, we must remain cautious about environmental cause and political effect, but it is striking how closely this climate change aligns with major upheavals across several regions," added Büntgen.

The multidisciplinary research team made up of climatologists, naturalists, historians and linguists mapped the new climate information against a particularly turbulent period in history in Europe and central Asia. The volcanic eruptions probably affected food supplies - a major famine struck the region at precisely this time followed immediately by the pandemic.

Further south, the Arabian Peninsula received more rain allowing more vegetation to grow. The researchers speculate this may have driven expansion of the Arab Empire in the Middle East because the vegetation would have sustained larger herds of camels used by the Arab armies for their campaigns.

In cooler areas, several tribes migrated east towards China, possibly driven away by a lack of pastureland in central Asia. This led to hostilities between nomadic groups and the local ruling powers in the steppe regions of northern China. An alliance between these steppe populations and the Eastern Romans brought down the Sasanian Empire in Persia, the final empire in the region before the rise of the Arab Empire.

The researchers write, "The Late Antique Little Ice Age fits in well with the main transformative events that occurred in Eurasia during that time."

link.

North Pole Experienced 4 C (40 F) This Week, in the Dead of Winter

A weather anomaly sweeping across the world could cause temperatures at the North Pole to reach nearly 4 C this week.

Texas, Australia and England are just a few of the regions that have seen a spate of extreme weather this month, including tornadoes, brush fires and flooding. Now, forecasters say the North Pole is seeing temperatures well above normal.

CBC North's resident meteorologist, Ashley Brauweiler, says the severe weather system that wreaked havoc in the U.S. and beyond is the reason.

"We have temperatures above zero near the poles and that's because the jet stream is bringing that warm air from the south up and along Greenland and Iceland. While storms here are normal, the strength of the storm isn't," Brauweiler said.

"They're seeing the same storms that were affecting the southern [U.S.] states."

At the North Pole on Thursday, temperatures are expected to hit 3 C. On New Year's Day it will be nearly 4 C.

link.

The North Pole, in the darkest time of the year, experienced warmer temperatures than parts of the SF Bay Area in California at night.  Consider that for a moment.

hat tip to Randy.

How Volcanic Eruptions & Sulfur can Effect Clouds

It has long been suspected that sulfur emissions can brighten clouds. Water droplets tend to clump around particles of sulfuric acid, causing smaller droplets that form brighter, more reflective clouds.

But while humans have pumped sulfur into Earth's atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution, it's been hard to measure how this affects the clouds above. New University of Washington research uses a huge volcanic eruption in Iceland to measure the change.

The new study, to be published in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union, shows that sulfur emissions do indeed result in smaller cloud droplet size, leading to brighter clouds that reflect significantly more sunlight.

"This eruption is a chance to nail down one of the big uncertainties in climate models," said first author Daniel McCoy, a UW doctoral student in atmospheric sciences.

The study takes advantage of a unique geologic event. During six months from summer 2014 until early 2015, a crack in the Bardarbunga volcano seeped lava and sulfur gas. This was not one of Iceland's huge explosive eruptions that fill the skies with ash and shut down airplane routes. Instead it was a long, slow, low-elevation seep of sulfur emissions that produced an amount of lava second only to Laki in the recent history of Iceland eruptions.

The UW researchers looked at data for that region recorded by NASA's MODIS, or Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, instrument to measure the size of droplets in the marine cloud layer. While the volcano was spewing sulfur, the droplets were the smallest in the 14-year record of observations.

"You can see the effect over an entire ocean for a two-month period," McCoy said. "It was a pretty unique geophysical event within the satellite record."

link.

Climate Influences Sediments From High Altitude Sources

In a new paper published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), San Francisco State University Professor of Earth and Climate Sciences Leonard Sklar and colleagues show how two established geochemical techniques can be combined in a novel way to reveal both the altitude where river rocks were originally produced and the rate of erosion that led them to crumble into the river.

Geologists have long dreamed of interviewing the rocks on the bed of a river to learn the story of where they were born and how they came to be the size they are. This is because the size of river rocks influences how rivers behave, from the habitat they provide to the speed with which they carve canyons. Yet, until now, the rocks have withheld their secrets.

Sklar, along with lead author Cliff Riebe and doctoral student Claire Lukens from the University of Wyoming and David Shuster from the University of California, Berkeley, wanted to understand how climate, which varies with altitude, controls the size and flux of sediments in rivers.

The National Science Foundation-funded research team's key breakthrough came when it used two techniques to query river rocks. First, researchers used cosmogenic nuclides to trace erosion rates in sediment samples. This common method of measuring erosion rates uses rare isotopes formed in minerals exposed to cosmic rays at the earth's surface. A higher concentration of isotopes means the rock has spent a longer time exposed at the surface, indicating a slower erosion rate.

They then combined this technique with detrital thermochronometry, another sediment tracing tool, which pinpoints where on a mountain sediment was produced. This is done by laboriously isolating tiny crystals of the mineral apatite and using ultraprecise machines to count the number of helium atoms contained in the crystals. The helium is formed by radioactive decay of uranium and is more abundant in rocks at higher elevations in the study area.

link.

Drought Map Chronicles Europe's Climate for the Last 2,000 Years

The long history of severe droughts across Europe and the Mediterranean has largely been told through historical documents and ancient journals, each chronicling the impact in a geographically restricted area. Now, for the first time, an atlas based on scientific evidence provides the big picture, using tree rings to map the reach and severity of dry and wet periods across Europe, and parts of North Africa and the Middle East, year to year over the past 2,000 years.

Together with two previous drought atlases covering North America and Asia, the Old World Drought Atlas significantly adds to the historical picture of long-term climate variability over the Northern Hemisphere. In so doing, it should help climate scientists pinpoint causes of drought and extreme rainfall in the past, and identify patterns that could lead to better climate model projections for the future. A paper describing the new atlas, coauthored by scientists from 40 institutions, appears today in the journal Science Advances.

link.

Mammalian Body Size Shrinks as the Climate Temperature Rises

To unravel the link between past climates and animal faunas requires an exceptional fossil record. Chew, an associate professor at Western University of Health Sciences, California, used fossils from the Bighorn Basin of Wyoming, a nearly complete record of around 5 million years of mammalian evolution, to study responses of mammal communities through time. "The Bighorn Basin fossil record, particularly from this part of the basin, is one of the best early Cenozoic terrestrial records in the world." remarks Chew. "My colleagues have been assembling the fossil samples on which this work is based for more than 30 years. Their efforts have produced a superb, highly resolved, thoroughly studied record that is unparalleled. This record allows us to examine more sophisticated questions about faunal response to climate and environmental change than was previously possible."

Information on past climate in the Bighorn basin comes from the structure of carbon atoms, known as isotopes, preserved in the rock. This technique revealed three global warming events. The first occurred 55 million years ago, and has been previously linked to decreasing body-size. However, data from the next two events, occurring two million years later, is required to test if this forms part of a larger evolutionary pattern. "No other terrestrial record exists with the density of fossils necessary to test faunal response to the later hyperthermals [climatic warming]. The central Bighorn Basin record essentially documents a set of repeated, natural experiments in climate warming." Chew explains.

link.

Does Undersea Volcanic Activity Affect Climate on 100,000 Year Cycle?

The intensity of volcanic activity at deeply submerged mid-ocean ridges waxes and wanes on a roughly 100,000-year cycle, according to a new study that might help explain poorly understood variations in Earth's climate that occur on approximately the same timetable.

Cyclical variations in Earth's tilt and orbit--occurring at 23,000-, 41,000- and 100,000-year intervals--are known to strongly influence our planet's long-term climate. They are associated with the coming and going of ice ages that also takes place about every 100,000 years.

In particular, changes in the roundness of Earth's orbit around the Sun unfold on approximately the same 100,000 year cycle as the planet's global swings between icy and temperate conditions. But, the variation in solar radiation reaching Earth due to temporarily larger and smaller distances between our planet and the Sun can't fully explain the magnitude of the climatic shifts.

The new research finds evidence in the profile of sea-floor elevation that volcanic activity at mid-ocean ridges, where molten rock emerges from Earth's interior and creates new planetary crust, coincides with these 100,000-year changes in Earth's orbit and climate. Given that volcanic eruptions release the climate-altering gas carbon-dioxide, significant emissions of the gas might take place during upswings of undersea volcanic activity, potentially affecting the climate at 100,000-year intervals.

"Generally, mid-ocean ridges are thought of as this tiny, not very significant contributor to the carbon cycle and that is true, but that's because they are thought of as a steady-state process. But, if they go through periods of significantly enhanced volcanism and significantly suppressed volcanism, then they may be more important than we thought," said Maya Tolstoy, an associate professor at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University in New York and sole author of the new study accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

link.

The Impact of Climate on Language

Climate, vocal folds, and tonal languages: Connecting the physiological and geographic dots

Authors:

Everett et al

Abstract:

We summarize a number of findings in laryngology demonstrating that perturbations of phonation, including increased jitter and shimmer, are associated with desiccated ambient air. We predict that, given the relative imprecision of vocal fold vibration in desiccated versus humid contexts, arid and cold ecologies should be less amenable, when contrasted to warm and humid ecologies, to the development of languages with phonemic tone, especially complex tone. This prediction is supported by data from two large independently coded databases representing 3,700+ languages. Languages with complex tonality have generally not developed in very cold or otherwise desiccated climates, in accordance with the physiologically based predictions. The predicted global geographic–linguistic association is shown to operate within continents, within major language families, and across language isolates. Our results offer evidence that human sound systems are influenced by environmental factors.

Atmospheric Rivers Like the Pineapple Express Caused Major Antarctic Storms in 2009, 2011

Extreme weather phenomena called atmospheric rivers were behind intense snowstorms recorded in 2009 and 2011 in East Antarctica. The resulting snow accumulation partly offset recent ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet, report researchers from KU Leuven.

Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow water vapour plumes stretching thousands of kilometres across the sky over vast ocean areas. They are capable of rapidly transporting large amounts of moisture around the globe and can cause devastating precipitation when they hit coastal areas.

Although atmospheric rivers are notorious for their flood-inducing impact in Europe and the Americas, their importance for Earth's polar climate - and for global sea levels - is only now coming to light.

In this study, an international team of researchers led by Irina Gorodetskaya of KU Leuven's Regional Climate Studies research group used a combination of advanced modelling techniques and data collected at Belgium's Princess Elisabeth polar research station in East Antarctica's Dronning Maud Land to produce the first ever in-depth look at how atmospheric rivers affect precipitation in Antarctica.

link.

Impact of Antarctic Clouds on Climate

Impact of Antarctic mixed-phase clouds on climate

Authors:

Lawson et al

Abstract:

Precious little is known about the composition of low-level clouds over the Antarctic Plateau and their effect on climate. In situ measurements at the South Pole using a unique tethered balloon system and ground-based lidar reveal a much higher than anticipated incidence of low-level, mixed-phase clouds (i.e., consisting of supercooled liquid water drops and ice crystals). The high incidence of mixed-phase clouds is currently poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs). As a result, the effects that mixed-phase clouds have on climate predictions are highly uncertain. We modify the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM) GCM to align with the new observations and evaluate the radiative effects on a continental scale. The net cloud radiative effects (CREs) over Antarctica are increased by +7.4 Wm−2, and although this is a significant change, a much larger effect occurs when the modified model physics are extended beyond the Antarctic continent. The simulations show significant net CRE over the Southern Ocean storm tracks, where recent measurements also indicate substantial regions of supercooled liquid. These sensitivity tests confirm that Southern Ocean CREs are strongly sensitive to mixed-phase clouds colder than −20 °C.

Humanity has Ended the Ice Age

Damping of glacial-interglacial cycles from anthropogenic forcing

Author:

Haqq-Misra

Abstract:

Climate variability over the past million years shows a strong glacial-interglacial cycle of ~100,000 years as a combined result of Milankovitch orbital forcing and climatic resonance. It has been suggested that anthropogenic contributions to radiative forcing may extend the length of the present interglacial, but the effects of anthropogenic forcing on the periodicity of glacial-interglacial cycles has received little attention. Here I demonstrate that moderate anthropogenic forcing can act to damp this 100,000 year cycle and reduce climate variability from orbital forcing. Future changes in solar insolation alone will continue to drive a 100,000 year climate cycle over the next million years, but the presence of anthropogenic warming can force the climate into an ice-free state that only weakly responds to orbital forcing. Sufficiently strong anthropogenic forcing that eliminates the glacial-interglacial cycle may serve as an indication of an epoch transition from the Pleistocene to the Anthropocene.

Humans Greatly Impact Cloud Formation

Understanding how clouds affect the climate has been a difficult proposition. What controls the makeup of the low clouds that cool the atmosphere or the high ones that trap heat underneath? How does human activity change patterns of cloud formation? The research of the Weizmann Institute's Prof. Ilan Koren suggests we may be nudging cloud formation in the direction of added area and height. He and his team have analyzed a unique type of cloud formation; their findings, which appeared recently in Science indicate that in pre-industrial times, there was less cloud cover over areas of pristine ocean than is found there today.

Clouds need tiny particles called aerosols that rise in the atmosphere, in order to form. These aerosols – natural ones like sea salt or dust, or such human-made ones as soot – form nuclei around which the cloud droplets condense. In relatively clean environments, clouds can only grow as large as the amount of aerosols in the atmosphere allows: They will be the limiting factor in cloud formation.

The question is: Does the current load of aerosols in the atmosphere already exceed that limit, in which case adding extra particles should not greatly affect cloud formation; or do they continue to be a limiting factor as pollution rises, so that added aerosols would continue to influence the clouds? A model developed by Koren and his team showed that an increase in aerosols, even in relatively polluted conditions, should result in taller, larger clouds that rain more aggressively. But proving the model was another story: Experimenting on clouds, or even finding ways to isolate the various factors that go into their formation in real time, is a highly difficult undertaking.

Koren, research student Guy Dagan and Dr. Orit Altaratz in the Earth and Planetary Sciences Department looked to an unlikely place to test their model: near the horse latitudes. These are subtropical regions far out in the oceans that were reviled in the past by sailors because the winds that carried their sails would die out there for weeks on end. Here was a lab for them to test the basic physics of their model: an atmospheric region controlled by well-defined meteorological conditions, which was sometimes pristine, sometimes containing low levels of aerosols. If the model was correct, transitions from one to the other should be dramatic. And they wanted to test their theory on the clouds that do form in this region – warm convective clouds that are fuelled by the ocean's moisture.

With other potential factors – wind, large temperature swings or land formations – out of the way, the team could concentrate on the aerosols, comparing daily satellite images of cloud cover and measurements of the aerosol load to the predictions of the model. Using many different types of analysis, they found that their model closely matched the satellite observations.

They then looked at another source of data: that of the Clouds' and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellite instruments which measure fluxes of reflected and emitted radiation from the Earth to space, to help scientists understand how the climate varies over time. When analyzed together with the aerosol loading over the same area at the same time, the outcome, says Koren, was a "textbook demonstration of the invigoration effect" of added aerosols on clouds. In other words, the radiation data fit the unique signature of clouds that were growing higher and larger. Such clouds show a strong increase in cooling due to the reflected short waves, but that effect is partly cancelled out by the enhanced, trapped, long-wave radiation coming from underneath.

At least over the oceans, the pre-industrial cloud conditions would have been considerably different from those of today; this implies that the aerosols we have been adding to the atmosphere may have had a significant effect on global patterns of cloud formation and rain.

Koren: "We showed that convective clouds do not necessarily stop being aerosol-limited; under relatively polluted conditions the increase in aerosol loading will make the clouds taller, larger and their rain-rate stronger. As the area of this cloud cover grows, it reflects more of the shortwave radiation; but as the clouds get taller, their greenhouse effect becomes more significant, counteracting about half of their total cooling effect."

link.

Tropical Belt Widening is Being Driven by Natural and Anthrogenic Reasons

Recent studies have shown that the Earth's tropical belt — demarcated, roughly, by the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn — has progressively expanded since at least the late 1970s. Several explanations for this widening have been proposed, such as radiative forcing due to greenhouse gas increase and stratospheric ozone depletion.

Now, a team of climatologists, led by researchers at the University of California, Riverside, posits that the recent widening of the tropical belt is primarily caused by multi-decadal sea surface temperature variability in the Pacific Ocean. This variability includes the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability that works like a switch every 30 years or so between two different circulation patterns in the North Pacific Ocean. It also includes, the researchers say, anthropogenic pollutants, which act to modify the PDO.

Study results appear March 16 in Nature Geoscience.

"Prior analyses have found that climate models underestimate the observed rate of tropical widening, leading to questions on possible model deficiencies, possible errors in the observations, and lack of confidence in future projections," said Robert J. Allen, an assistant professor of climatology in UC Riverside's Department of Earth Sciences, who led the study. "Furthermore, there has been no clear explanation for what is driving the widening."

Now Allen's team has found that the recent tropical widening is largely driven by the PDO.

"Although this widening is considered a 'natural' mode of climate variability, implying tropical widening is primarily driven by internal dynamics of the climate system, we also show that anthropogenic pollutants have driven trends in the PDO," Allen said. "Thus, tropical widening is related to both the PDO and anthropogenic pollutants."

link.

Modeling the Archean World's Climate

Controls on the Archean Climate System Investigated with a Global Climate Model

Authors:

Wolf et al

Abstract:

The most obvious means of resolving the faint young Sun paradox is to invoke large quantities of greenhouse gases, namely, CO2 and CH4. However, numerous changes to the Archean climate system have been suggested that may have yielded additional warming, thus easing the required greenhouse gas burden. Here, we use a three-dimensional climate model to examine some of the factors that controlled Archean climate. We examine changes to Earth's rotation rate, surface albedo, cloud properties, and total atmospheric pressure following proposals from the recent literature. While the effects of increased planetary rotation rate on surface temperature are insignificant, plausible changes to the surface albedo, cloud droplet number concentrations, and atmospheric nitrogen inventory may each impart global mean warming of 3–7 K. While none of these changes present a singular solution to the faint young Sun paradox, a combination can have a large impact on climate. Global mean surface temperatures at or above 288 K could easily have been maintained throughout the entirety of the Archean if plausible changes to clouds, surface albedo, and nitrogen content occurred.

Mongols Rode on the Crest of Good Weather

Researchers studying the rings of ancient trees in mountainous central Mongolia think they may have gotten at the mystery of how small bands of nomadic Mongol horsemen united to conquer much of the world within a span of decades, 800 years ago. The rise of the great leader Genghis Khan and the start of the largest contiguous empire in human history was propelled by a temporary run of nice weather.

The rings show that exactly when the empire rose, the normally cold, arid steppes of central Asia saw their mildest, wettest weather in more than 1,000 years. Grass production must have boomed, as did vast numbers of war horses and other livestock that gave the Mongols their power. But the tree rings, spanning 1,112 years from 900 to 2011, also exhibit an ominous modern trend. Since the mid-20th century, the region has warmed rapidly, and the rings show that recent drought years were the most extreme in the record—possibly a side effect of global warming. In a region already pressed for water, the droughts have already helped spark a new migration in a vast region where people until now have lived the same way for centuries, moving herds from place to place and living in tents. Now, those herders are being driven rapidly into cities, and there could be greater future upheavals. The study appears in this week's early online edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

link.

Cutting the Amazon Causes Knock-on Effects Not Unlike El Nino

In research meant to highlight how the destruction of the Amazon rainforest could affect climate elsewhere, Princeton University-led researchers report that the total deforestation of the Amazon may significantly reduce rain and snowfall in the western United States, resulting in water and food shortages, and a greater risk of forest fires.

The researchers report in the Journal of Climate that an Amazon stripped bare could mean 20 percent less rain for the coastal Northwest and a 50 percent reduction in the Sierra Nevada snowpack, a crucial source of water for cities and farms in California. Previous research has shown that deforestation will likely produce dry air over the Amazon. Using high-resolution climate simulations, the researchers are the first to find that the atmosphere's normal weather-moving mechanics would create a ripple effect that would move that dry air directly over the western United States from December to February.

Specifically, a denuded Amazon would develop a weather cycle consisting of abnormally dry air in the sun-scorched northern Amazon around the equator weighted by wetter air in the cooler south. Research has speculated that this pattern would be similar to the warm-water climate pattern El Niño, which during the winter months brings heavy precipitation to southern California and the Sierra Nevada region while drying out the Pacific Northwest.

The Princeton-led researchers found that the Amazon pattern would be subject to the same meandering high-altitude winds known as Rossby waves that distribute the El Niño system worldwide from its source over the Pacific Ocean. Rossby waves are instrumental forces in Earth's weather that move east or west across the planet, often capturing the weather of one region — such as chill Arctic air — and transporting it to another. Because the Amazon pattern forms several thousand miles to the southeast from El Niño, the researchers report, the Rossby waves that put the rainy side of El Niño over southern California would instead subject that region to the dry end of the Amazon pattern. The pattern's rainy portion would be over the Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.

[...]

"The big point is that Amazon deforestation will not only affect the Amazon — it will not be contained. It will hit the atmosphere and the atmosphere will carry those responses," Medvigy said.

"It just so happens that one of the locations feeling that response will be one we care about most agriculturally," he said. "If you change the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada, where most of the irrigation for California's Central Valley comes from, then by this study deforestation of the Amazon could have serious consequences for the food supply of the United States."

link.

So what does an El Nino event look like under this climate regime?

New Mexico's Horrible Drought: Climate Change or the Return of the Cycle Which Killed the Anasazi

Scientists in the West have a particular way of walking a landscape and divining its secrets: They kick a toe into loamy soil or drag a boot heel across the desert's crust, leaning down to squint at the tiny excavation.

Try that maneuver in New Mexico these days and it yields nothing but bad news in a puff of dust.

Across the West, changes in the climate are taking a toll. Almost 87% of the region is in a drought.

Nevada is removing wild horses and stocks of cattle from federal rangelands, Wyoming is seeding clouds as part of a long-term "weather modification program," officials in Colorado say the state's southeastern plains are experiencing Dust Bowl conditions, and the entire western U.S. has been beset by more frequent and ferocious wildfires across an ever-more combustible landscape.

But nowhere is it worse than in New Mexico. In this parched state, the question is no longer how much worse it can get but whether it will ever get better — and, ominously, whether collapsing ecosystems can recover even if it does.

The statistics are sobering: All of New Mexico is officially in a drought, and three-quarters of it is categorized as severe or exceptional. Reservoir storage statewide is 17% of normal, lowest in the West. Residents of some towns subsist on trucked-in water, and others are drilling deep wells costing $100,000 or more to sink and still more to operate.

Hyperearth

Super Drought Research Suggests Stronger Monsoon in the Southwest US With Global Warming?

Multidecadal to multicentury scale collapses of Northern Hemisphere monsoons over the past millennium

Authors:

1. Yemane Asmerom (a)
2. Victor J. Polyak (a)
3. Jessica B. T. Rasmussen (b)
4. Stephen J. Burns (c)
5. Matthew Lachniet (d)

Affiliations:

a. Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131;

b. Leander Independent School District, Leander, TX 78646;

c. Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003; and

d. Department of Geoscience, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV 89154

Abstract:

Late Holocene climate in western North America was punctuated by periods of extended aridity called megadroughts. These droughts have been linked to cool eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Here, we show both short-term and long-term climate variability over the last 1,500 y from annual band thickness and stable isotope speleothem data. Several megadroughts are evident, including a multicentury one, AD 1350–1650, herein referred to as Super Drought, which corresponds to the coldest period of the Little Ice Age. Synchronicity between southwestern North American, Chinese, and West African monsoon precipitation suggests the megadroughts were hemispheric in scale. Northern Hemisphere monsoon strength over the last millennium is positively correlated with Northern Hemisphere temperature and North Atlantic SST. The megadroughts are associated with cooler than average SST and Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Furthermore, the megadroughts, including the Super Drought, coincide with solar insolation minima, suggesting that solar forcing of sea surface and atmospheric temperatures may generate variations in the strength of Northern Hemisphere monsoons. Our findings seem to suggest stronger (wetter) Northern Hemisphere monsoons with increased warming.

That's interesting when combined with the projection of the monsoon being delayed under global warming. A stronger, but later monsoon could be...not so good.  Oh my green chiles!