Friday, April 10, 2009

At Home Sick

blah.

I had been trying to muscle through it in my office at work since Lyuda and Avrora are at home (Lyuda's spring break). However, I was pretty useless, so I am staying home and hoping to rest some today.

Not much blogging today.

Thursday, April 09, 2009

One Child Policy Has Caused Lopsided Demographics in China

elective abortion in favour of males has left China with 32 million more boys than girls, creating an imbalance that will endure for decades, an investigation released on Friday warned.

The probe provides ammunition for those experts who predict China's obsession with a male heir will sow a bitter fruit as men facing a life of bachelorhood fight for a bride.

"Although some imaginative and extreme solutions have been suggested, nothing can be done now to prevent this imminent generation of excess men," says the paper, published online by the British Medical Journal (BMJ).

In most countries, males slightly outnumber females -- between 103 and 107 male births for every 100 female births.

But in China and other Asian countries, the sex ratio has widened sharply as the traditional preference for boys is reinforced by the availability of cheap ultrasound diagnostics and abortion.

This has enabled Chinese couples to use pregnancy termination to prevent a female birth, a practice that is officially condemned as well as illegal.

In China, an additional factor has been the "one-child" policy.

In general, parents who have a second child are liable to pay a fine and contribute disproportionately towards the child's education.

But in some provinces, a second child is permitted if the first is a girl or if parents are experiencing "hardship." And in a few others, couples are allowed a second child and sometimes a third, regardless of sex.

In the paper, Zhejiang university professors Wei Xing Zhu and Li Lu and Therese Hesketh of University College London found that in 2005 alone, China had more than 1.1 million excess male births.

Among Chinese aged below 20, the greatest gender imbalances were among one-to-four-year-olds, where there were 124 male to 100 female births, with 126 to 100 in rural areas, they found.

The gap was especially big in provinces where the one-child policy was strictly enforced and also in rural areas.

Jiangxi and Henan provinces had ratios of over 140 male births compared to female births in the 1-4 age group.

Among second births, the sex ratio was even higher, at 143 males to 100 female. It peaked at a massive 192 boys to 100 girls in Jiangsu province.

Only two provinces -- Tibet and Xinjiang, the most permissive in terms of the one-child policy -- had normal sex ratios.

"Sex selective abortion accounts for almost all the excess males," the paper said. "(...) Enforcing the existing ban on sex selective abortion could lead to normalisation of ratios."


oy.

More some other time.

Russia's Europa Probe...Or Pipe Dream?

Russian Attitudes Exposed By Gas Pipeline Deal

Ukraine's gas pipeline deal with the EU on March 23 led to an avalanche of Russian outrage that had less to do with the agreement, but exposed the Kremlin's use of Russian national identity. Russia apparently felt 'betrayed' by Europe and Ukraine. Russian state-controlled media attacked its exclusion from the negotiations, maintaining that without Russia the modernization of the pipelines would not be viable, cast doubt on the viability of the plans and vilified the $5 to 7 billion promised by the EU as far too little. On March 23 Rossiya TV said the EU had forgotten that the pipelines are “mere junk without gas.”

Far more was involved than a show of anger over Moscow's exclusion from the deal. On March 25 Rossiyskaya Gazeta claimed, “Europe does not want to see our country [as part of Europe] and sometimes does not even want to listen to it.” While Komsomolskaya Pravda noted that, “Europe wants to control our gas all by itself, so to speak. Russia has been assigned the role of a docile gas supplier, an appendix which possesses natural resources.” Elsewhere, the Russian media was no less critical, describing the EU and Ukraine as adopting a “disrespectful attitude towards [Russia's] interests.” A report on Center TV International on March 28 concluded that, “Our European partners are incapable of being loyal on either geopolitical or economic issues” (Trud, Center TV International, March 25, 28).

[...]

On March 26 a discussion between Ukraine's Ambassador to Russia Kostyantyn Hryshchenko, shadow foreign minister in the pro-Russian Party of Regions, and Russia's representative to NATO Dmitriy Rogozin on NTV showed that Russia's over-reaction was a product of its inability to see Ukraine as a fully fledged independent state. In addition, the pipeline deal was evidence that Ukraine was continuing to distance itself from Russia. Rogozin, like most Russians, regards the Orange Revolution as Ukraine, “embarking on a course of splitting the East Slav world.” Russia had not criticized Ukraine for seeking EU membership until now because it had always been seen this as an unrealistic objective (unlike NATO membership which Moscow thought was imminent after Yushchenko's election). Hryshchenko stated that Ukraine seeks good relations with Russia. NTV refuted this, saying it is not perceived in Moscow and said it was a “tragedy for Russia” that Ukraine, “does not want to be with us and instead they want to be in NATO, which means that our former neighbors and our fraternal countries do not believe in Russia, do not believe in its course and do not want to be part of it.”


Even the Party of Regions is getting fed up with the Russians. They really need to rethink their world. When dealing with Ukrainians they need to absolutely dump the 'Malorus' - Little Russian - meme. However, I don't see that happening: they have a hard enough time when they immigrate here and still keep the thought that Americans are 'dumb and naive.' *sighs*

Simply Brilliant


Hat tip to Julia for sharing it.

Updated: The article from which this came is Understanding the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event (GOBE): Influences of paleogeography, paleoclimate, or paleoecology.

Wednesday, April 08, 2009

Climate Engineering Is Now On The Table

The president's new science adviser said Wednesday that global warming is so dire, the Obama administration is discussing radical technologies to cool Earth's air. John Holdren told The Associated Press in his first interview since being confirmed last month that the idea of geoengineering the climate is being discussed.

One such extreme option includes shooting pollution particles into the upper atmosphere to reflect the sun's rays. Holdren said such an experimental measure would only be used as a last resort.

"It's got to be looked at," he said. "We don't have the luxury of taking any approach off the table."

Holdren outlined several "tipping points" involving global warming that could be fast approaching. Once such milestones are reached, such as complete loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic, it increases chances of "really intolerable consequences," he said.

Twice in a half-hour interview, Holdren compared global warming to being "in a car with bad brakes driving toward a cliff in the fog."

At first, Holdren characterized the potential need to technologically tinker with the climate as just his personal view. However, he went on to say he has raised it in administration discussions.


This was predicted almost 8 years ago by a climate scientist from here then. Even if we went cold turkey CO2wise, we'd still have the resultant climate since it'd take thousands of years for the CO2 to be sequestered naturally. If this is taken seriously, then we may end up with climate a couple degrees higher.It will take a lot of work to flush that much CO2 out. if we don't move fast enough, it'll end up being 5C more. Betcha.

Is that Mt Doom in Mordor?!


Nope. Just Mt Redoubt in Alaska.

From Email: CCSM-Paleoclimate WG Call for Presentations

Dear Paleoclimate Working Group Members:

It is that time of year again. We encourage you to submit a title for a brief presentation at the June Paleoclimate Working Group meeting that will take place during the 14th Annual CCSM Workshop in Breckenridge, June 15-18. We especially encourage our university colleagues to take this opportunity to present on their recent CCSM paleoclimate research.

Please send both of us an email with the title of your presentation. If you would prefer to present your research as a poster, then this is also open to you.

We look forward to seeing everyone in Breckenridge this June.

Regards,

Jeff Kiehl (jtkon@ucar.edu) & Zhengyn Liu (zliu@facstaff.wisc.edu)


Contact them, not me.

Like always, I will live-blog this when the time comes assuming Team Phoenicia has not consumed all of my time.

Tuesday, April 07, 2009

The KT Extinction: The Day the Sky Fell


An Introduction

I have thought a lot about what I was going to write while my family is away seeing my in-laws. I had originally planned to write about climate change in different places (it's partially done and may get finished before La Kidda and the spouse return, but it might not) and I had planned on writing about the therocephalians as well. However, Zach drop nuked an ubersized paper on the gorgonopsid skull functionality and I've been madly trying to get more funding, bending metal, and getting set to fly or crash The Wind at Dawn for for Team Phoenicia - I just wanna fly! Really! So the thero post is dumped for the time being. Instead, I realized that I had let my mass extinction posts be neglected. It has been more than a year since I wrote about YAGUMETs and Stop Dreaming (the comparison of the KT to the PT Extinctions). I had promised a post on the KT Extinction. While in some ways Stop Dreaming was that post, that it was a case of trying to disprove the hypothesis that the KT Event was caused by the Deccan Traps. This post is intended to be the opposite: to set out the evidence on what caused the KT, ie a proof.


Time's Echoing Archosaural Roar

The dinosaurs. They have fascinated us to the extreme for since their discovery. They have evolved in our mental space from the great lumbering, stupid giants to the fast and terrifying semi-birds of today. Always, always, we have wondered: what killed them? They are so huge and powerful, even when they were the stupid version, why in the word did the mammals of today even stand a chance against them? The biggest of ours is far, far smaller than the greatest of theirs...sooo...what happened? Why are they as 'dead as the dinosaurs?'

There have been a lot of theories over time as what caused the demise of the dinosaurs. They are of varying quality and testability. Sometimes they held out far, far longer than they ought to have in a serious scientific discourse. However, almost all of them had a major problem when people first asked the question of what killed the terrible lizards: whatever theory it was, it had to be compatible with Uniformitarianism. Otherwise, the hypothesis would be supportive of the discredited and heretical Catastrophism. I won't recap the intellectual war between Cuvier and Lyell - every. single. book. on the KT or most mass extinctions does this in such detail that I now skip those chapters. Interesting the first few times, irrelevant after a while. I will summarize to say that in the end, in the last 30 years, a variant on the catastrophist position has won out: mass extinctions are the epitome of that POV. However, the ideas about what killed the dinosaurs were once compatible with uniformitarianism. Let's look at the goofy things.


Discredited Silliness & A Mistaken Belief

There are really two goofy theories and one that just didn't pan out even though it had some basis. The other two are just so goofy though in retrospect that you have to wonder how they could survive to the modern times themselves. However, quite often, they do appear once again and sometimes backed by the most surprising of people.

The first silly idea that I am going to touch on is that a virulent pathogen wiped out all the dinosaurs. That the pathogen spread throughout the world of the Late Cretaceous and wiped out everything us just plain ludicrous. There is no evidence that there was suddenly an increased amount of sick dinos based on their skeletons. There really ought to be. Even so, it ought to be noted, fifty percent, 50%!!! of all mammals and birds got wiped out too! There are exceedingly few crazy lethal pathogens that match this and almost none would wipe out both mammals and birds and nonavian dinosaurs on this scale. Furthermore, this crazy pathogen would have had to been able to knock out molluscs too: like say, the ammonites. I have a hard time believing that anyone took this one very seriously. The 'nice' thing about this hypothesis was that it didn't disturb the geological present is an excellent guide to the past meme, since plagues were well known in Europe and they leave little trace geologically. However, it is completely wrong.

The second silly idea is an outgrowth of the misunderstanding of how evolution works and its misapplication to the social sciences. There were some very embarrassing and stupid ideas that would come of the misapplication and misunderstanding of evolution, social darwinism, frex, but another was that evolution is about constant improvement and that in turn led to the belief in mammalian superiority. Yes, supposedly, we mammals are the biggest, meanest, most advanced and nastiest thing this planet has ever evolved and only something that replaces us will be superior. The way that this was exhibited with respect to the dinosaurs was that the little fuzzy mammals were supposed to have eaten the eggs of the dinos and that caused the extinction. The only problem is that the mammals lived alongside the endothermic archosaurs for around 100 million years before the dinosaurs went and extinct. When presented with that fact, it has been countered that it was really the placentals that were superior and they ate the dinosaurs' eggs and outcompeted the other mammalian varieties. Also ludicrous, the placentals didn't outcompete anyone at least until the end of the Eocene and they are only now giving the marsupials of Australia any problems despite having been present in rodent form since the Miocene. (psst, the paleogene megafauna may not have been placental. Pass it on.)

The last incorrect theory shouldn't really be called silly. There was some evidence for this to a degree and that evidence was simply misinterpreted. However, this one, too, did not disturb that Uniformitarian view of geology. This would be that the world's climate simply changed and that the dinosaurs died out. There is some support for change in the world's climate. There used to be a great mucking sea up the middle of North America for example. However, it receded as the Atlantic basin widened and deepened. When this happened, climate around the inland sea changed from coastal tropical to being drier and more seasonal. The diversity of dinosaurs decreased. This was interpreted as a decline in the dinosaurs in general. However, there were two oopses here. The first is that more arid conditions naturally support less diversity and what diversity that it does support tends to be less of the megafauna variety. Secondly, it ought to be noted in the regions where the climate was the same there was no loss in diversity at all. The dinosaurs weren't really declining. The sites we were getting the fossils from just happened to have different environments at them over time.


The Last Two Standing

There are two more theories that were left. One wasn't even considered until a later to be UC Berkeley geologist and his famous father stirred the paleontological pot. That would be the idea that the dinosaurs were killed by a bollide impacting with the world. The second theory was as much a reaction to the first: that vulcanism was actual cause. Both sides produced some personalities that have been central to the fight between them such as Jan Smit and Gerta Keller, Walter Alvarez and Vincent Courtillot, and, of course, Luis Alvarez (a colabbie, no less). The debate has had the heat and blinding flashes of bollide impacts and massive volcanic explosions and, in fact, I am surprised that the a fore sentence with those individuals listed didn't burst into flame being listed side by side. To read the calmest of the writings on the subject I recommend Courtillot's Evolutionary Catastrophes and Alvarez the Younger's T Rex and the Crater of Doom. The struggle has been very, very bitter and more than a few friendships have been lost over it.

As interesting as the human dimension on the subject is it has been covered in extensive detail. I really want to discuss why the KT Extinction was caused by the Chicxulub impact and the evidence for it. I do want to note before I move on that with the evidence from the KT Extinction debate and the evidence of other lesser known geological events like the Channeled Scablands have overturned the idea of Uniformitarianism to be replaced with a neocatastrophist point of view.

Those that pushed forward the vulcanist stance that the Deccan Traps were the cause of the KT Extinction. Their argument has been that the Deccan Traps are located at the right time to cause the extinction and since there is an interesting correlation between flood basalts and mass extinctions that it must be the culprit. They have systematically attacked the evidence for a bollide impact being the cause of the extinction, especially Chicxulub. One thing that I have not read by them is why the Deccan Traps caused the extinction. What evidence is there that their hypothesis is correct? The problem is, other than the timing, the evidence does not stack up well for the Deccan Traps: the KT Extinction had a fundamentally different signature than the one mass extinction generally accepted as being caused by vulcanism. You can read about the differences here in my Stop Dreaming post.

There was one more damning bit of evidence against the Deccan Traps causing the KT Extinctions that I mentioned in passing in the comments of that post, but not in the body (out of time as I stated). The Deccan Traps are flood basalts, to be sure, and big ones. However, there is evidence of cessation of the eruptions and between the layers of basalt there are sedimentary sections. In those sections are fossils of dinosaurs. The different sections have the same dinosaurs. The Deccan Traps didn't even wipe out the indigenous dinosaurs of the island continent of India. (cite coming, promise)

That would leave the impact at Chicxulub as the protagonist of the post. Is there evidence for the impact and its Crater of Doom causing the extinction? Is there a good mechanism for the extinction? Is there a general understanding of what happened? Yes, there is.



The Last Man Standing

It was freezing and cold. The triceratops moving with increasing difficulty. There was little energy left in her. She couldn't see a thing and she was the last of her herd. It was pitch black and she couldn't see a thing. She was no night herbivore. She was in constant terror. It wouldn't matter soon unless she could find food. She was about to expire. She was simply too huge to live off the meager, frozen bits of vegetation she had been finding. The irony was that her size had saved her, when the cold blackness came. The hatchlings and smaller members of the herd had expired first. Then the largest. Then the others until she was all that was left. She found water and collapsed in it. As the world, such as it was, faded away, she heard something. Squeeking. Her life would be the payment for others.

When the bollide came crashing down 65 million years ago, there were multiple ways that the blast and its after effects killed. There were ways that were originally conjectured that it definitely did not kill with though. The bollide that hit had an estimated diameter of 10 km derived from the massive size of the Chicxulub Crater. Oh, the reason that I keep saying bollide is because we don't know if it was a asteroid (mostly stony thing) or a comet. However, in 2007, there was a report that astronomers had found the alleged source of the
Chicxulub bolide. A much larger carbonaceous chordite, a rare carbon and volatile stuffed variant, asteroid broke up and one of the pieces impacted on the Yucatan Peninsula 65 million years ago.


We are going to make some assumptions here. If you read this, consider a step up from back of envelope calculations. Not much more. I'd consider actually doing a simulation on the machines at work, but time wise, I'm swamped. Just getting this post done has taken me weeks. For the effects of the impact, we'll assume that half the energy of the impact was translated into thermal energy and the other half into blast effects. This is overly simplistic, but will do for our purposes. Our carbonaceous chordite 10 km bolide has just blasted a 300 km crater into the ground.

The immediate effects would be the blast itself. The impact had the power of ten thousand times the sum of the nuclear arsenals of the world at the height of the cold war. Going by the Effects of Nuclear Weapons, a volume that has been used extensively to try to model the effects of such a large impact on the world.

The shock waves from that impact would have been tremendous and absolutely devastating for life. Everything from the Yucatan to the approximately Thompson, Manitoba, Canada would have been killed just by the shockwave to the north, to the Columbian-Brazilian border in the South (remember, South America was further south back then), and way out into the Atlantic and Pacific. This is just the shockwave. This is only one of many effects that would have been devastating to the End Cretaceous ecosystem.

There would have been a massive tidal wave to go along with the this shockwave. The nearest equivalent in recent human history was the tidal wave that was produced by the 1960 Valdivia Earthquake (or Great Chilean Quake) that produced a tidal wave that hit the Hawaii with wave heights exceeding 35 feet (10.5 meters) 5,000 miles (8,000 km) away. Keep in mind that the Valdivia Quake was a 9.0. The impact would have been the equivalent of an 11+ on the same scale. Tidal waves would have lashed the whole of the exposed Atlantic Basin and even the southern Pacific far, far more than the relatively "minor"disturbance of Valdivia. There may well have been the equivalent of Lituya Bay waves cashing into Europe, Africa, and possibly even Antarctica and Australia. We already know that many of the nonvian dinosaurs favoured the lowlands in the Late Cretaceous. For large swathes of them, even outside of the killing range of the shockwave, the megatsunamai would have been just as great if not greater of a killer.


These alone would have been devastating to the Late Cretaceous terrestrial ecosystems within the killing distances of the impact's tsunamis and shockwave.
These are not the only killing mechanisms, if they are a little more of what people can grasp since they have some tie into our collective experience. However, there's a whole lot more that happened. One of the best bits of evidence that proved there was an impact in the Yucatan was yet another killer: the tektites.

What is a tektite? It is not a murderous lost Mesoamerican civilization, though the placement of the impact teases like it could be. It is a very small, spherical piece of rock that was heated to insane temperatures. When an impact takes place, it vaporizes gigatons of rock. Some of this is ejected from the Earth. The vast majority of it comes back down, coalescing as spheres of still really hot rock, glass really, that falls back to Earth. This in turn causes fires to start. These tektites have been found around the world with an ever increasing number closer to the Yucatan. This rain of red hot dust around the world would have started a global conflaguration of varied degrees. More closer to the impact. Less further away. Besides the direct death dealt out by the local fires, the most devastating bit would have been the smoke. Smoke everywhere in the world. Note: there was some question whether or not the conflaguration took place: it appears that it did.

This smoke would have joined the dust, gigatons and more, kicked up into the atmosphere by the impact. Furthermore, the Yucatan even back in the Cretaceous, held vast stores of oil. This too would have been vaporized and burned. The dust, the burning oil, the burning vegatation, all in turn would have blocked the light from the sun. This killed far, far more than the "pathetic" direct effects of blast. The temperatures would have plummeted, everywhere, around the world, snapping down to modern day arctic winter conditions for months on end, even in the tropics, and possibly up to a year. That would have killed even the largest tropical megafauna and most, but not all of Cretaceous fauna was ill equipped for dealing with the cold snap. This would have been really bad news for the terrestrial plants and animals. Trees would have died. Forests die. Vast areas of land plants just die. With nothing to eat, the herbivores follow. With the herbivores gone, the carnivores follow. the megafauna is 100% toast. Even the smaller sized animals die in droves: 50% of all Cretaceous mammals were wiped out too. No place on earth would have been untouched by this.


What of the oceans though? The reefs would have been crushed by the tsunamis, but even then there would have been enough plaktonic larva to reestablish reefs PDQ. However, even if the reefs were shielded or completely out of the way of the tsunamis, there was no escaping that crushing darkness. The blocked sunlight would have crushed the photic zone plakton. Anything that depended on the plakton was toast. Anything that produced larva that lived in that plakton was toast. Antyhing that depended on anything that ate the above was toasted. Based on the study of teleost fish at the KT Boundary, this has been born out. In fact, it seems that the KT extinction killed vast amounts of everything in the photic zone. The larger you were, the more the sucky it was.

What Didn't Happen

One of the big suggestions that bloomed out of the arguments over the KT Extinction was the suggestion that vast amounts of acid rain poured out of the skies. There is zilch evidence for it. In fact, the very ecosystems that ought to have been impacted the most - the brown water ecosystems of the freshwater realm - were some of the least impacted by the extinction event. One of the most sensitive class of terrestrial vertebrates that ought to have been absolutely mopped by the introduction of massive amounts of acid rain were no more effected than any other class: whom do I speak of? Lissamphibia. They weathered the KT as well as anyone. If there had been extreme amounts of acid rain, they'd not have survived probably at all!


The Evidence

Now that I have described how the Mesozoic ended, the obvious retort is, what evidence is there for this scenario? This has been a fanciful tale, but....what sort of data bits do you have to support it? There is alot. Now, as I said, I've already written the negation of the Deccan Traps as the trigger mechanism of the KT/K-Pg Extinction. Now what do I have to support the contention? There's a lot. Honestly, this is about as clinched as they go for mass extinctions.

First off, the Yucatan has this massive crater that matches the geochronology of the KT Extinction. Known at the Chicxulub Crater, it has a massive diameter of over 300 km and the inner crater ring is 180 km. The dating of the crater is pretty rock solid, if you will forgive the expression, but it is the one of the areas where the vulcanists attempt to erode the strength if the impactists' position.

Connected to this is the famous iridium layer. This is world wide at the the KT Boundary. It is what tipped Walter Alvarez et al off to their discovery and has since been verified over time and again. The iridium is almost certainly extraterrestrial in origin. There has never been a single volcanic event that caused the world spanning iridium deposits ever.

As already mentioned, the tektites have been found world wide and these have been centered on the Yucatan. The closer you get to the Yucatan, the more tektites are found. The distribution pattern completely matches the Chicxulub Crater being their source.

Furthermore, there's the shocked quartz. Quartz when subjected to obscene pressures will deform and crack in a manner that is consistant with a the pressure being exerted in an extreme form from a singular source. So far, shocked quartz has been found related to nuclear weapons tests and impact events. There has been little to no evidence at all that this comes from volcanic events. The KT/K-Pg Boundary is rife with it and the distribution again indicates that the source is the Chicxulub Crater.

So far, I have shown that the KT and Chicxulub Impact have been geochronologically synchronous. That's not enough. I have to show that there is evidence of the predicted effects. Now let's go there.


For the impact shockwave, there's very little evidence, to be honest. However, indirectly, there's the fern spike. Ferns, as I noted in my carboniferous ecology post, are the phytocaste dedicated to disaster expoitation. The whole of North America and even other parts of the world, including remote portions such as New Zealand, the fern spike is recorded. It's also of very limited geochronological extent: once the other phytocastes recovered, the ferns' spores faded into the background in the pollen. This indicates something devastating happened and happened fast. The ferns, being specialists at exploiting catastrophies, zipped in and then faded away.

For the tidal wave, there have been deposits found in Mexico and Haiti that match the predicted flotsam and extremely disturbed sediment. This has been disputed by Keller et al, but so far as I can tell, only by her. This has been supported by Smit at el and the feel I get is that this will not be settled completely until after the passing of this generation of paleontologists. Some of the worst ad hominem attacks both ways have come out of the study of the tidal wave deposits. To clinch the Chixculub megatsunami, deposits outside of these need to be found. If I were looking, I'd go to North Africa, northern South America and, possibly, Ausralia or Antarctica's appropriate northern coast.

As for the evidence of the global conflagration, carbon lumps have been found. Additionally, a recent paper came out and stated that there is extensive geochemical evidence that combustion was taking place all over the world from different deposits. If this holds up, this would be yet another hard clinch on the world ending event that the KT Boundary transition was.

Finally, there's the very nature of the extnction event. I talked about that in Stop Dreaming. The photic zone in the oceans were devastated while the benthic were largely untouched. The terrestrial realms were completely upended. 50% of the angiosperms in North America went extinct on the boundary. The fern spike, as noted, was global.

An Item That Needs to be Addressed

The first is that there can not be a single cause for this extinction and any other. Please read both "Addressing YAGUMETs" and Stop Dreaming. If you want to show two extinctions have a common cause, please compare the patterns of the extinctions. They need to be similar in the biomes they impact, the nature of the creatures being impacted, and evidenciary nature. If they do not match, they are not caused by the same thing. Sorry. Shoehorning didn't work for the ugly step sisters and it won't here either.

The KT Extinction was different from the Permian Extinction. The Permian was similar to the Late Triassic Extinctions. Several "minor" mass extinctions match too. None of the previous were similar to the Ordovician. It's unknown which the Devonian matches, if any. The 6th Mass Extinction doesn't fit any of the previous extinctions. That will be the next mass extinction post, but not yet. There is no Grand Unified Mass Extinction Theory. Deal.


In The End...

When the Cretaceous ended, 50% of all genera were extinct. 17% of all animal families were wiped out. 50% of all angiosperms in North America alone went extinct. All of the dinosaurs save the birds were extinct. The great marine reptiles were gone. The pterosaurs were toast. The majority of the archosaurs and most diapsid megafauna was swept away. The archosaur grip on the ecologies that had lasted for over 135 million years, and arguably even 150 million years, was ended. The therapsids, namely the mammals in our different stripes, were once again given the chance to dominate the ecologies. This time we did and we snapped back rather well. In fact, very, very quickly we diversified, but it'd not be for a few million years that we had a lot of megafauna.

In the end, the dominance of the megafauna by the mammals, by chance, produced us. The first genus to contemplate itself. The first genus to be a WMD. The first genus to produce a mass extinction all by its lonesome. That, however, is a post for another time.

And, yes, for those that are wondering, this was a much needed paleo break from the Team Phoenicia work. Hopefully, I didn't do any egregious sins mathematically or otherwise here. I'm a little distracted and will go back to fix anything missed. The next paleo post will be why the methane calthrate hypothesis for the PT Extinction by its lonesome is an epic fail: hint, the PETM.


For the Sake of All That's Good and Light...WHY?!


GM spent their money on this?!

View to Von Braun

Upcoming Russian Space Probes

2009 Phobos Grunt: sample return from Phobos. Grunt means soil in this case. Carries a Chinese Martian orbiter with it.

2012 Luna-GLOB: lunar orbiter. Also drops penetrators into the moon.

Luna-Resource: rover near the poles. I guess for 2012?

2016 Venera-D: Venus orbiter, balloons, and a lander. hmmm.

MarsNet: With *FINLAND* (Finns in spppppaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaace). Sorry. Finns are building penetrators for Mars.

Let's see how much of this materializes rather than lives merely on PowerPoint. A lot of this is very ambitious. Perhaps more so than the Russians can really do. OTOH, the US didn't have a track record for a long time before going out exploring again in the mid to late 1990s. We'll see. However, the Europeans, Americans and Japanese at least have cross fertilization of their space probe programs, does Russia have that sort of interaction with the rest? Honestly don't know...

Hattip to Future Planetary Exploration.

Duck Weed to the Rescue!


Researchers at North Carolina State University have found that a tiny aquatic plant can be used to clean up animal waste at industrial hog farms and potentially be part of the answer for the global energy crisis. Their research shows that growing duckweed on hog wastewater can produce five to six times more starch per acre than corn, according to researcher Dr. Jay Cheng. This means that ethanol production using duckweed could be "faster and cheaper than from corn," says fellow researcher Dr. Anne-Marie Stomp.

"We can kill two birds – biofuel production and wastewater treatment – with one stone – duckweed," Cheng says. Starch from duckweed can be readily converted into ethanol using the same facilities currently used for corn, Cheng adds.

Corn is currently the primary crop used for ethanol production in the United States. However, its use has come under fire in recent years because of concerns about the amount of energy used to grow corn and commodity price disruptions resulting from competition for corn between ethanol manufacturers and the food and feed industries. Duckweed presents an attractive, non-food alternative that has the potential to produce significantly more ethanol feedstock per acre than corn; exploit existing corn-based ethanol production processes for faster scale-up; and turn pollutants into a fuel production system. The duckweed system consists of shallow ponds that can be built on land unsuitable for conventional crops, and is so efficient it generates water clean enough for re-use. The technology can utilize any nutrient-rich wastewater, from livestock production to municipal wastewater.

Large-scale hog farms manage their animal waste by storing it in large "lagoons" for biological treatment. Duckweed utilizes the nutrients in the wastewater for growth, thus capturing these nutrients and preventing their release into the environment. In other words, Cheng says, "Duckweed could be an environmentally friendly, economically viable feedstock for ethanol."


If it doesn't really require anything more than what corn does, this has huge potential. It isn't a food crop. It doesn't compete with the production of food crops. It wouldn't - if works as advertised - be possible to put into production using methods that do not require much development past scaling up, unlike the cellulosic ethanol.

Monday, April 06, 2009

Ediacaran Animal Fossils Found?

Large spinose microfossils in Ediacaran rocks as resting stages of early animals

1. Phoebe A. Cohena,1,
2. Andrew H. Knollb,1 and
3. Robin B. Kodnerc

-Author Affiliations

1.
Departments of aEarth and Planetary Sciences and
2.
bOrganismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, 26 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA 02138; and
3.
cFriday Harbor Laboratories, University of Washington, Friday Harbor, WA 98250

1.

Contributed by Andrew H. KnollMarch 2, 2009 (sent for review December 9, 2008)

Abstract

Large (>100 μm), profusely ornamented microfossils comprise a distinctive paleontological component of sedimentary rocks deposited during the Ediacaran Period (635–542 million years ago). Smaller spinose fossils in Paleozoic rocks have commonly been interpreted as algal cysts or phycomata, but the Ediacaran populations differ from modern algal analogs in size, shape, ultrastructure, and internal contents. In contrast, cysts formed during the diapause egg-resting stages of many metazoans share features of size, ornamentation, and internal contents with large ornamented Ediacaran microfossils (LOEMs). Moreover, transmission electron microscopic observations of animal-resting cysts reveal a 3-layer wall ultrastructure comparable to that of LOEM taxa. Interpretation of these distinctive Ediacaran microfossils as resting stages in early metazoan life cycles offers additional perspectives on their functional morphology and stratigraphic distribution. Based on comparisons with modern marine invertebrates, the recalcitrant life stage represented by LOEMs is interpreted as an evolutionary response to prolonged episodes of bottom water anoxia in Ediacaran shelf and platform environments. As predicted by this hypothesis, the later Ediacaran disappearance of LOEM taxa coincides with geochemical evidence for a marked decline in the extent of oxygen-depleted waters impinging on continental shelves and platforms. Thus, the form, diversity, and stratigraphic range of LOEMs illuminate life cycle evolution in early animals as influenced by the evolving redox state of the oceans.


Dude. I'll get the paper once I am at work tomorrow.

Bay Area Scientific Computing Day

The Bay Area Scientific Computing Day (BASCD) is an annual informal gathering to encourage the interaction and collaboration of researchers in the fields of scientific computing and computational science/engineering from the San Francisco Bay Area. This event provides a great venue for junior researchers to present their work to the local community, and for the Bay Area scientific and computational science/engineering communities at large to interchange views on today's multidisciplinary computational challenges and state-of-the-art developments.

This year marks the 10th anniversary of BASCD. For this occasion, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, which organized the first BASCD in 2000, will host the event on site on Saturday, May 9, 2009.

The event will feature presentations by researchers from institutions in the San Francisco Bay Area. There will also be opportunity for poster presentations.

Organizers:

Robert Crockett
Esmond Ng

Administrative Support:

Rachel Lance
Yeen Mankin

Venue

Location: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Building 66 Auditorium
Date: Saturday, May 9, 2009

Program Agenda

Current Speakers:

* Jim Bremer (UC Davis), "Efficient Discretization of Boundary Integral Equations on Domains with Corners"
* Anwei Chai (Stanford University), "Compressed Sensing and Imaging: A Comparative Study"
* Mark Hoemmen (UC Berkeley), "Communication-avoiding iterative methods"
* Nicole Lemaster (Sandia Lab), "Adaptive Load Balancing for Component-based PDE Solvers"
* Kamesh Madduri (LBNL), "High Performance Computing for Massive Graph Analysis"
* Chris Rycroft (LBNL), "Real-time control of mixing in dense granular flow"
* Mike Singer (LLNL), "TBA"

Poster Presentations:

Those interested in presenting a poster presentation should email Robert Crockett, rkcrockett-at-lbl-dot-gov, by the deadline of April 17. Please include title and abstract. There are a limited number of slots available, and those selected will be notified the following week.

The final agenda will be available soon.

Registration

No registration fees are required for participiation in the Bay Area Scientific Computing Day.

All participants of the Bay Area Scientific Computing Day must register in order to gain site access at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

Go here to register.

Additional Information

Site Access

All participants must sign up at the registration page in order to visit Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and attend the Bay Area Scientific Computing Day.

Directions

The Bay Area Scientific Computing Day will be held in Building 66 Auditorium, which is located at the east end of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Building 66 is easily accessible from the Strawberry Canyon Gate. A map of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory is available.

General information on directions to Lawrence Berkeley National can be found at http://www.lbl.gov/Workplace/Transportation.html.

To get to the Strawberry Canyon Gate from I-80: Click here for directions from Google Map.

To get to the Strawberry Canyon Gate from CA-24: Click here for directions from Google Map.

Weather in Berkeley

Current weather information and forecast can be found at http://www.wunderground.com/US/CA/Berkeley.html.

Previous Bay Area Scientific Computing Days

2000 - Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
2001 - Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
2002 - Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore
2003 - University of San Francisco
2004 - Stanford University
2005 - Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
2006 - Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
2007 - Stanford University
2008 - University of California, Berkeley


A nontrivial amount is HPC. I will probably not be attending because of Team Phoenicia testing, but I strongly encourage people to do so. If you want to network into the HPC/scientific computing world. this is one of the good ways to do so.

Link in the title like always.

Wilkins Ice Sheet Breaks Away


An ice bridge which had apparently held a vast Antarctic ice shelf in place during recorded history shattered on Saturday and could herald a wider collapse linked to global warming, a leading scientist said.

"It's amazing how the ice has ruptured. Two days ago it was intact," David Vaughan, a glaciologist with the British Antarctic Survey, told Reuters of a satellite image of the Wilkins Ice Shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula.

The satellite picture, from the European Space Agency (ESA), showed that a 40 km (25 mile) long strip of ice believed to pin the Wilkins Ice Shelf in place had splintered at its narrowest point, about 500 meters wide.

"We've waited a long time to see this," he said.

The Wilkins, now the size of Jamaica or the U.S. state of Connecticut, is one of 10 shelves to have shrunk or collapsed in recent years on the Antarctic Peninsula, where temperatures have risen in recent decades apparently because of global warming.

The ESA picture showed a jumble of huge flat-topped icebergs in the sea where the ice bridge had been on Friday, pinning the Wilkins to the coast and running northwest to Charcot Island.

"Charcot Island will be a real island for the first time in history," Vaughan said.

Vaughan, who landed on the flat-topped ice bridge on the Wilkins in January in a ski-equipped plane with other scientists and two Reuters reporters, said change in Antarctica was rarely so dramatic. It was the first -- and last -- visit to the area.

The loss of the ice bridge, jutting about 20 meters out of the water and which was almost 100 km wide in 1950, may now allow ocean currents to wash away far more of the Wilkins shelf.

"My feeling is that we will lose more of the ice, but there will be a remnant to the south," said Vaughan. Ice shelves float on the water, formed by ice spilling off Antarctica, and can be hundreds of meters thick.

Nine other shelves have receded or collapsed around the Antarctic Peninsula in the past 50 years, often abruptly like the Larsen A in 1995 or the Larsen B in 2002 further north.


There goes that one. It's been expected for a while though.

I have wonder how long until we are doing a death watch on the Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves...

Buy Antarctic Peninsula Properties now!

(and ditch the coastal ones elsewhere)

New Russian Launcher in the Works? Or Another Kliper?

ussian Space Agency Roscosmos has chosen a team consisting of Samara Space Center (TcSKB Progress), RSC Energia and the Makeev Rocket Design Bureau to develop a new medium-class booster.

The rocket will launch from the yet-to-be-built Vostochny cosmodrome in the far east of Russia. It should be able to boost manned and cargo spacecraft, as well as space station modules, to low-Earth orbit.

According to Roscosmos requirements, the new launcher should be able to send up to 20 metric tons of payload into a 200 kilometer (120-mile) altitude orbit. The team beat out Khrunichev and its Angara modular booster.

According to industry sources, the winning project is essentially an upgrade of the venerable Soyuz booster. It would be a two-stage launcher. It will reportedly feature an oxygen/kerosene first stage and a second stage using an oxygen/hydrogen fuel combination.

The new launch system is intended for the Advanced Crew Transportation System (ACTS) planned by Roscosmos to replace the Soyuz and Progress spacecraft. Roscosmos promises to name a winner in the ACTS competition early next week. The first launch of the new booster with an unmanned payload is planned for 2015, and the first manned mission is targeted for 2018.


We'll see if this is the real deal or not.

Ordovician Extinction Caused by Gamma Ray Burst?

A new study has suggested that a brilliant burst of gamma rays may have caused a mass extinction event on Earth 440 million years ago, and a similar celestial catastrophe could happen again in the future.

Most gamma-ray bursts are thought to be streams of high-energy radiation produced when the core of a very massive star collapses. According to a report in National Geographic News, the new computer model shows that a gamma-ray burst aimed at Earth could deplete the ozone layer, cause acid rain, and initiate a round of global cooling from as far as 6,500 light-years away.

Such a disaster may have been responsible for the mass die-off of 70 percent of the marine creatures that thrived during the Ordovician period (488 to 443 million years ago), suggests study leader Brian Thomas, an astrophysicist at Washburn University in Kansas.

The simulation also shows that a significant gamma-ray burst is likely to go off within range of Earth every billion years or so, although the stream of radiation would have to be lined up just right to affect the planet.

Currently WR104, a massive star 8,000 light-years away in the constellation Sagittarius, is in position to be a potential threat, according to Thomas.

Study author Thomas’ former graduate advisor, Adrian Melott, first proposed in 2004 that a gamma-ray burst near Earth wiped out Ordovician life.

Since then, both researchers have been tackling pieces of the puzzle.

According to their newest models, gamma radiation from a nearby burst would quickly deplete much of Earth’s protective ozone layer, allowing increased ultraviolet radiation (UV) from the sun to reach the surface.

In the longer term, chemical reactions in the atmosphere would produce dark, nitrogen-based gases that would block the sun’s heat and trigger global cooling, even as the gamma rays continued to deplete ozone and let in UV rays, the authors suggested.

Some of the pollution would fall as damaging acid rain, which can severely disrupt ecosystems.


From what I can see here, this looks like its just a sim. Do they have any field work to support their assertion? Anyone have this paper? Or is it even a paper at all?

Friday, April 03, 2009

Still More Team Phoenicia News


We have added AirGas as a sponsor. This is huge. Free LOX and Helium to pressurize the tanks. This was the single largest cost we had.

I'm down in Menlo Park bending metal today.

Thursday, April 02, 2009

More Team Phoenicia News


So, some news. We have Online Metals as a sponsor now: they've worked out a sweet deal for the metal parts we need for the structure. We also have a good chunk of the rocket structure fabbed for the first rocket. Second rocket parts being shipped. Third after we've fabbed the second.

The prototype engine is complete save for two nipples.

heh. We have another major sponsorship to announce. We'll save it for tomorrow. I want to make sure I have their permission first.

WOO!

ahem.