Friday, July 25, 2014

Ukraine: Patterns of Pause?

Clashes continue but for the most part they are small scale and without a clear victor.  No towns seemed to have traded hands.

The Russians have continued to bombard Ukraine.  They are also preparing to transfer equipment across the border.  Some of this is much larger and heavier bombardment rockets than just the GRADs.  

In Gorlovka, the rebels are digging in.  They have brought in a fair amount of AA and tanks.

The Russians have been claiming the Ukrainians are routinely shelling the Russian side of the border and they are getting threatening over it.  The Ukrainians have been stating its army is NOT shooting at the Russians, even to return fire, and the attackers are really the rebels trying to act as a provocation for invading.

Along those lines, there have been some ominous movements (as if the shellings have not been) on the border with Russian army units coming right up to the border before turning and some claim the Russians are drilling to invade.  It remains to be seen.  The cost may be too high for that.  OTOH, if the fighting continues as is, the rebels are going to lose.  The Ukrainians are not going to accept a frozen conflict.

Japan is now threatening sanctions against Russia, fwiw.

There is a new video on youtube which is claimed to be the rebels as flight mh17 which states the rebels knew it was a large, single plane and not a fighter.  The question is whether or not the tape is from June or July.

The political situation seems to be chaotic in Kiev.  The intent apparently was not to have Yatsenyuk resign when the government collapsed.  That was his own decision.  Apparently, the Rada will vote on whether or not accept his resignation on Thursday as part of a no confidence vote.  I am guessing he was mad because he views the election as not being appropriately timed for the war.  Then again, I could be wrong.

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