As the minibus wobbles over the dusty, pothole-filled road that runs the length of South Tarawa island, a song blasting over Kiribati's state radio envisions an apocalypse for this fishhook-shaped atoll halfway between Honolulu and Fiji: “The angry sea will kill us all.”
The song, which won a competition organized by Kiribati's government, reflects the views of President Anote Tong, who has been warning for years of a knockout punch from climate change. In an interview with CNN in June, Tong insisted that rising sea levels due to global warming will mean “total annihilation” for this nation of 33 coral islands spread over a swath of the Central Pacific the size of India, and for other atoll island nations like Tuvalu and the Maldives. In May, Tong announced that Kiribati had spent $8.7 million to buy 22 square kilometers of land on Vanua Levu in Fiji as a haven for displaced citizens, cementing his nation's global reputation as an early victim of climate change.
Many scientists quietly demur.
No doubt, the sea is coming: In a 2013 report, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted that global sea levels will rise up to 1 meter by 2100. But recent geologic studies suggest that the coral reefs supporting sandy atoll islands will grow and rise in tandem with the sea. The only islanders who will have to move must do so for the same reason as millions of people on the continents: because they live too close to shore.
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