Thursday, August 28, 2014

Ukraine: Boiling the Frog

It has been a while since I posted an update for what is happening in Ukraine. I have been dealing with a lot in the rocket business, some zaniness with the day job and working on the evac of contacts out of Gorlovka.

That said, in the time since I posted, a lot has happened. Very little of it is good for the Ukrainians. On the cusp of victory, crushing the rebels wherever they fought, they are now in process of being routed and the Russian army, at least the soldiers, are in the Donbass.

The best description of I have seen of what Russia's actions is Putin is 'boiling the frog.' The frog, in this case, is NOT Ukraine, but rather the world. He has been ratcheting up the intervention in Ukraine, turning up the heat, and done so in small enough increments the world has failed to notice the radical changes.  He has a convert invasion under way.  This is much more than even the LGM scenario.  Right now, the Russians claim their soldiers are fighting in Ukraine when they are on leave.  Sources from inside Russia are claiming over 10k troops are now fighting and in many cases dying in Ukraine.  The next temperature raise overt invasion.

The Ukrainian army was stopped in its tracks and made little progress save, perhaps, around Gorlovka.  On the other hand, they faced significant losses everywhere else.  Their pincer movements to cut Lugansk and Donetsk off from the Russian border have been pushed back and forced to massively retreat.  They are going to lose the southern portion of their conquests in the DNR.  The Russians are even pushing onto Mariupol.  

Little Green Men started popping up all over the place.

Poroshenko met with Putin in Belarus.  There are some pictures of them shaking hands.  The talks were futile.  Putin even attempts a Mr Burns level of evil.  Or at least the look of it.  If not for the horror of it all, it would be comical. 

The Ukrainians have reinstituted the draft.  Poroshenko has stated he now has arms coming in, but has not revealed the source.  He has also requested an alliance with the US outside of NATO like Australia, Philippines or Japan.  Ukraine has captured over 12 Russian soldiers.  NATO showed satellite images of Russian troops in Ukraine. 

Russia has buried over 100 soldiers already in a single engagement: the Ukrainians hit them with GRADs.  Twice as many wounded were taken back to Russia. 

Unfortunately, Obama stopped short of calling a spade a spade (unlike the Lithuanians) and did NOT call what is happening in Ukraine an invasion.  I guess there is still more salami to slice.  Or the frog can boil a bit longer.  

An interesting rumor is Poland is calling up its reserves. 

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