Ukraine War Update: Молчание лягушек

The ceasefire has now held for a few days.  There have been four major violations: in Volnovakha where heavy artillery fired an estimated 6 salvos, in Gorlovka artillery was used and at Avdiivka and Maryinka nontrivial infantry clashes grew into having squad level mortars being used.

There was an ambush on a Ukrainian patrol looking for smugglers.  Two soldiers were killed.  Its unclear if it was the separatists, Russians or just plain smugglers.  I'd lean to that last group, honestly.

Yet this is still extremely quiet compared with the Sitz Krieg before.

In the Donbass, in the rebel held territories, a lot of equipment is moving around.  Some say the heavy equipment is being pulled back.  Others state the units at the front are being resupplied and heavily provisioned.  Fuel trucks are increasingly common.  The delivery of tanks has not stopped either.  In August, watchers claim another 150 Russian tanks and variable accounts of IFV/APCs crossed the border.  Whether they are really Russian, as in Russian Army, or for the DNR/LNR is not certain.  That would mean as much as all of the tanks in the Bundeswehr  was delivered in August.  At this point the Donnie Rebs have more firepower in terms of armored fighting vehicles than the entirety of Western Europe.

Ukraine has declared Russia a formal enemy.  With this, you can bet Ukraine will end up ending all cooperation in anything other than the most mundane of civilian ways. 

While many have reported on the hardening attitudes in Ukraine wrt the Donbass, little has been reported about how Ukraine is getting angry with the West, especially Europe.  Ukrainians feel the West is forcing them into bowing down to Russia.

The main struggle for Ukraine has shifted to Ukraine's other troubles.  The debt issues, struggles with its right wing supporters, internal saboteurs and corruption.  That part of the war for Ukraine's soul is far from done.  In fact, it has barely begun.  

For that matter, it remains to be seen whether or not the Donbass War is over or if it was paused for convenience.  

I have to wonder if the war will resume if and when the oil price rises sufficiently in the near future and Russia has failed to place a friendly government in Kiev before then.