Pax Sinica: China's Efforts to Build a new, America-less World Order

THE clue is in the name. The Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) groups six countries—China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan—and aims to be the dominant security institution in its region; but its origin and purposes are largely Chinese. So it looks rather worrying from a Western point of view that the group has agreed to expand and that India, Pakistan and Iran are all keen to join: the rise of a kind of China-led NATO to which even America’s friends, such as India and Pakistan, seem drawn. Yet that is to misunderstand the sort of organisation the SCO aspires to be. It does indeed pose a challenge to the American-led world order, but a much more subtle one.

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Idle Speculation: The Nauka Module Will be the Basis for a Russian Solo Space Station or Sino-Russian Space Station

The current situation in Ukraine made me wonder what will happen on numerous fronts. The US and Russian are becoming enemies again. Our operations in Afghanistan are about to become untenable: we will lose the supply lines through Russia and the ones through Pakistan are going to probably go away too. I have personal reasons too (3 are out, btw). However, in space...the space station, we are very, very dependent on the Russians. That will likely go away, too.

Putin's team ha already said they will not be supporting the ISS past 2020. The US and Europe DOES plan to do so. There are a couple modules which are built or being built by the Russians which have not as yet flown. One of them is the Nauka module. Its launch has been postponed to at least 2015, if not 2017. It will have its own propulsion (which is the source of the problems now, but can be fixed).  The Nauka module is based off of Zvezda, which provides a lot of the boost capability for the ISS.

 Then add in the Oka-T-MKS module, the node module and something like a Rassvet or two, you are well on your way.  You can either invite the Chinese or others (Indians?) or go it alone.  Given the political situation and given the capability... I am not totally out there.  OPSEK was an earlier concept which may or may not happen.

BRICS IMF is Called New Development Bank and Based in Shanghai

FOR years the BRICS countries have insisted they are more than an acronym. To dispel any lingering doubts, the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, who gathered in the Brazilian city of Fortaleza for their sixth annual summit on July 15th, announced the creation of two financial institutions: the New Development Bank (NDB) to finance infrastructure and “sustainable development” projects, with $50 billion in capital to start with, and the $100 billion Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA), to tide over members in financial difficulties.

On the surface, the NDB and the CRA, which must still be approved by the five countries’ parliaments, look like upstart rivals to the World Bank and the IMF, together the cornerstone of the post-war economic order. The BRICS complain that the Bretton Woods outfits, named after a New Hampshire town where they were conceived 70 years ago this month, give the developing world short shrift. China, whose economy is second only to America’s, has fewer votes there than the Benelux countries. America and Europe have proved shamefully slow to redress the imbalance.

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Saudi Arabia's Doing Something Interesting

Saudi Arabia has been hitting the news a lot lately. No, not for the the nominal reasons: oil, women's rights, their court system, etc. Rather they have been cropping up a lot in military and international relations ways. Ones which can only be intentional leaks meant to be warnings, both to its current allies and to its main enemies, Iran and Israel. This has all taken place since the preliminary nuclear deal with Iran. The Saudis have been on record has both wanting to have the US attack the Iranians to stop their nuclear weapons development and not believing in the nuclear deal being anything other than a smoke screen to buy Iran more time. (for the record, I'm skeptical, too. While the Iranians are not North Korea by any stretch, its obviously possible to run a smoke screen, milk the world and still develop a weapon) So what is it that the Saudis have been doing? Why are they doing these things? And what it could it mean?

I am not an expert on foreign policy or the Middle East or even Saudi Arabia.  Take everything you read with a grain of salt.

What is it the Saudis have been doing?  First off, the Saudis hinted multiple times they may acquire nuclear weapons from Pakistan or have Pakistan station Pakistani nuclear weapons on Saudi soil.  Furthermore, the Saudis have been in negotiations with the Pakistanis to both purchase military equipment from them and base Pakistani troops in Saudi Arabia.  It has also just lent/gave $1.5 billion dollars to the Pakistanis.  Finally, it was revealed the Saudis have acquired DF-21 ballistic missiles from the Chinese...ironically, with help from the US.  

The last one is the least frightening of the above, even though.  The Saudis already had DF-3A missiles in silos for some time. The Saudis even decided during the first Gulf War the allied air campaign was sufficient as retaliation and launching their own missiles in retaliation would be counter productive, since a large number of civilian casualties were expected with their impact.  The acquisition of the DF-21s took place with the help of the CIA, supposedly, to verify they were not nuclear capable.  I am sure that there was no incentive on the part of the CIA so they could get a first hand look, nuh uh. 

The DF-21s, while sounding scary, are not really more so than the DF-3As the Saudis already had.  Albeit more accurate than before.  Basing Pakistani troops, on the other hand, and nuclear weapons, on the gripping hand, are even more so.  The latest there extremely so.

Why would they do this?  Nukes?  Pakistani troops?  Lending, perhaps even granting, that much money to the Pakistanis?  Why would they consider any of the above?  In no small part it is because the US now produces more oil and gas than the Saudis do.  Domestically.  That dog don't bark anymore.  In other words, the Saudi threats to nail the US with oil price spikes through OPEC are becoming meaningless, if not are already.  That threat is gone, so new ones needed to be added. The new threat is to try to scare the United States into backing away from the nuclear deals with Iran.  A threat with a path to escalation.  Back off or else.

The first is the Saudis will stop buying American weapons (pakistani tanks and aircraft).  Moderate, mild but painful since the Saudis have money to spend and we want to keep our defense contractors afloat.  Do as we say, or the defense contract gets it.  And we really mean it.  We'll go to the Pakistanis if the rest of you mooks don't like it.

The second threat, that of Pakistani troops and basing, is more worrisome.  It would probably presage a move to boot the last bits of the US military there.  It would give an additional benefit that should Iran ever attempt to nuke the Saudis, the Pakistani troops would likely get it too and therefore would act as a tripwire.  This would mean aligning closely with the Pakistanis though and while the Saudis have the money to keep the Pakistanis generally happy, it entails a risk that the paycheck to the Pakistanis may not be enough and the troops might have more than nontrivial abilities to place whomever in power.  Don't listen?  We just broke up with you and here's our new boyfriend!  nyah!

The final threat, acquiring nuclear weapons, would be the ultimate middle finger.  They almost assuredly have the money.  They might have even already bought the weapons and have them on hot standby for delivery (although not detonation).  The consequences of this move would be enormous though.  it would make the Israelis extremely unhappy if the Saudis took delivery.  The US would be almost as much so.  The only way I can see this happening is if the Iranians tested a bomb and the Saudis felt they could not completely trust the Pakistanis.  naaaah.  ;)

 The Saudis could walk away from the first of the above even after committing to buying Pakistani equipment.  It would give them some leverage in a threatening, scary way, but would not be a line which could not be uncrossed.  I'd think this is likely to happen if the West continues to negotiate with the Iranians.  I also expect the West will not stop negotiating.  This will mean the Saudis will go through with the buy.

What happens after that depends on what happens next...with the West and Iranians.  And, ironically, with Crimea.  If the West is seen as a toothless partner, then alternates are needed.  The Pakistanis, a nuclear armed one, may be the partner.  If a deal is signed with the Iranians by the West, the Saudis will have some small contingent of Pakistani troops placed somewhere conspicuous and near a target which the Iranians might nuke.  This acts as a tripwire.  I'd also expect we'd see some favourable deals with equipment, oil and whatnot as well for the Pakistanis: you're the muscle, we're the money.  If the Iranians detonate a nuke, then all bets are off. 

Watching the situation in Ukraine and doing likewise here with the Saudis, I have to wonder if we are seeing the end of the order set up after the fall of the Soviet Union.  The US is no long seen as reliable, irregardless of whatever power it may wield.  China is seen as too far away and perhaps as it is on the rise but not yet embedded in most places in the world, best to be kept out from the start.  Russia...remains Russia.  There has been talk of a multipolar world for ten years now, ever since the 'hyperpower' nonsense was first brought up.

Perhaps an unexpected pole is being born...Saudi money and Pakistani muscle.  Could we see others joining?  Willingly or not?  Bahrain?  Kuwait?  UAE?  Qatar?  Others?  Proxy wars with Iran happening in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan?

There's a word which springs to mind which I will not utter here(*), but the irony of wanting to utter it is delicious.

Feel free to mock me here.

*.  It brings out the Eye of Mord^H^H^H^HCraziness.