Wednesday, May 11, 2005

Baby Baird update

We went to the Dr on Monday. Avrora is 10 lbs 8 oz and 21 1/2 inches.

We didn't get our regular Dr this time (*dark muttering about HMOs*). The one we did get was very professional, but obviously didn't know our child's history: she didn't even know that Avrora was born a month early.

She clucked and brought out the growth and development charts. Avrora did pretty poorly according to the comparisons to other kids at this point. I was taken aback a bit. Avrora is 12 oz from doubling her birth weight: according to this that doesn't happen until 6 months for most kids. Avrora can push herself up. She coos and even has a differentiated cry. She has excellent head control, etc. I guess tho for her weight and height total its still low. I asked if the fact Avrora was a month early made a difference on all that and the Dr said 'yes' then didn't want to discuss it.

After all that, the Dr said we were doing an excellent job and Avrora was in wonderful health.

Tuesday, May 10, 2005

New Scientist on ATK's solar sail

Look here.

Damnit I need to work on this paper.

The LANL Blog

Read here.

Interesting stuff. I have more than a passing interest since I work at one of LANL's sister labs; my father still works at LANL; I worked at LANL (as a student); and I grew up in Los Alamos.

Crafting an SFnal Setting: EU Ponderings

The setting is a relatively near future one. I am thinking that it ought to be between the late 2030s and the early 2050s. However, there ought to be a few important notes to be made about the setting. There is no world government. The states that are around are the ones that have been around still today. There are some changes to them. One of these is that the European Union has evolved into a more cohesive state than it is now and it is larger than it is now. This one seems like a straight forward consideration of its current trends. The 'core' EU has expanded out to Ukraine and Belarus in the east, Georgia, Armenia, and Turkey in the southeast for sure. However, there are two 'ummmmms' still with the EU.

The first is whether or not the Mediterranean nations have joined: this means North African ones stretching from Morocco to Egypt plus Syria, Lebanon, and Isreal. This entirely depends on whether or not Islamists are still a force there and if Isreal would ever trust itself into Europe's care. The latter I doubt. They have a very much go it alone attitude that I think has gotten too deep into its national character and culture. The former...I am not sure. I have a feeling that for the next thirty years the fundamentalists in Islam are going to be a royal pita. Religious trends like that just seem to don't go away in most parts of the world in a generation. It might be that some of the nations have joined though: Morocco, Lebanon, and Tunisia seem like the greatest candidates. In fact, Tunisia looks like, with anotehr couple decades of development and political reform to be the leading candidate. I'll mull here. Still pondering what it'd mean to have these nations as participants in the EU.

The second big 'hrm' is Russia. The further east that the EU and NATO moves, the more paranoid that Russia will become about others on their border. In some sense they have some right to feel that way: whenever they've had a major power on their border, they've gotten the short of it. This has been especially been true of major European powers. Whether it was the Swedes, Germans, French, or others, the Euros have loved to thump Russian skulls. Not always that successfully, but tis happened, painfully, repeatedly in cultural memory. On top of that, the Russians are not exactly a humble people. They have what I like to call the Great Russian Mentality. That they have the same or larger cultural chip on their shoulder with respect to the rest of the world that Americans do, but doubly so with respect to other neighboring cultures: their attitude towards Ukrainians, frex, is there is no such thing as a Ukrainian. They're Little Russians, inferior peasant Russians, but still Russians: the Malorus. Ditto for the Belarus (White Russians). Unless they've been humbled in some sort of a deeply cultural manner, I just can't seem them joining the EU by 2020, 2030, or maybe even 2050.

The problem for the Russians is that in the next 50 years unless there are some radical changes, they're going to become like France or Germany is today: a second tier power. If the EU grows at the same rate it ahs been it will end up with an economy somewhere in the $50 trillion PPP range. The US will prolly (barring uber stupidity) between $55 - $65 trillion PPP range. China will be somewhere around the $85 trillion PPP range. India will be around the $60 trillion PPP range. At best, Russia will have a $25 trillion PPP economy. This will be in line with Brazil (assuming Brazil doesn't find a gimic growth area like IT has been for India).

So, the question becomes do I want Russia in the EU of my writings. I could write a Russia that doesn't accept its second rate status and over spends on its military making it an economic basket case. I could write a Russia that has been humbled, but not part of the EU. I could also write a Russia that's a part of the EU. That means the EU stretches from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

The problem still remains: what changes that cultural quirk of the Russians? There are some possibilities that I can see. Either the Russians get thumped - bad, really bad - in a war. Perhaps with China? Or there is a possibility of a civil war that rends Russia from end to end enough that they seek outside help? Or would an extreme nastiness environmentally do the trick? Cheronbyl style meltdowns all over + the global warming fun?

The war with China has some appeal. It'd be a grim war though and have global repurcussions. I'd have to think it through. It'd also set up the EU has being not so friendly to China either. We'll see. I'm thinking in type here.

[Link] Scientists are Rethinking the Laws of Physics

Look here

Huh. 50% Conservative 50% Liberal

I still don't like the possible answers. There are other ones than they show for the same issues. Frex, fixing education: I don't like vouchers. I don't like No Child Left Behind. I think some basic competancy requirements on the part of teachers and sufficient dinero for them to live off of and show our appreciation would help immensely. Also the ethics section and Defense and Crime section are 100% BS.











Your Political Profile



Overall: 50% Conservative, 50% Liberal

Social Issues: 50% Conservative, 50% Liberal

Personal Responsibility: 50% Conservative, 50% Liberal

Fiscal Issues: 50% Conservative, 50% Liberal

Ethics: 0% Conservative, 100% Liberal

Defense and Crime: 100% Conservative, 0% Liberal


Monday, May 09, 2005

Mother's Day Postmortem

My wife and I had our first Mother's Day as a family. We had a very good day, actually. It wasn't quite what I had planned originally, but we still had a very good time.

1. I made breakfast. That isn't unusual in and of itself. However, I made a breakfast burrito with my homemade mango salsa and eggs.

2. My wife had been complaining that she doesn't have much in the way of simple jewelry that she can just wear day to day and not be that fancy. I picked up two pairs of earrings: the first is a pair of Amethyst butterfly earrings. Our daughter was born on Feb 28, so that seemed appropriate for Mother's Day. I also got her some simple ruby earrings: rubies being my wife's birthstone. Turns out that I'd picked out, by mistake, the same ruby earrings she already had. I'm normally VERY good at remembering things like that, but this time...ouch. She confessed she didn't wear them that much - actualyl she hadn't in the last year+ - so she understood why I didn't remember them. That was the first misstep on my planned day.

3. The second misstep was...well...not something I could plan for. The day before when Avrora and I went shopping, it was gloriously warm: 74 F or approximately 23 C. The sun was out and not a cloud was in the sky. However, Sunday...it was pouring rain most of the day. ARGH! The pan had been to whip up some burgers - my wife loves my hamburgers - and go up to the beaches in Marin: Stinson, Muir or some such. The crowds haven't yet started to congregate, so it'd be peaceful and fun. Obviously that didn't happen.

4. The only thing I salvaged out of that plan was that I swooped over to Cold Stone Creameries and picked up some ice cream. I called her with the possible selections and she settled on a tub of Mocha with marshmallows and coconut blended in. I came back and we munched while the rain pounded on the windows.

5. I took over caring for Avrora and sent my wife off to Michael's. This is a crafts store. My wife loves to sow or draw or crochett or numerous crafty like things. She had a wonderous time wandering around digging through all the nifty trinketts there. She also got to do it unrushed. Her daughter and husband normally are not patient enough when we're in the store with her. She spent two hours just browsing and finding what she wanted.

6. Dinner. We went to Chevy's: it's a Mexican restaurant that's walking distance from our apartment/flat. We got a sampler for my wife and I wasn't so hungry, truth be told. I got myself some chicken done in their own way and I tasted everything my wife got. I wasn't so impressed: I've become a Mexican food snob since I lived in New Mexico for most of my life. The Market Street style taht's so popular here is weak and too sweet for me. Whimpy Californians wouldn't survive smelling a good chile roast let alone eat the results. Unfortunately, neither can my wife survive it either. She had some medium heat green chile stew once when she was pregnant and she almost died: it burned her from the beginning to the end.

7. There was enough of a rain break for us to walk home slowly and enjoy the Bay side. It was dark and you could hear the lapping of waves.

We had a very good time.

Sunday, May 08, 2005

Pulled from usenet: East African Rift Island

I posted this to usenet...it got zilch reception. So, I'll tag it here:

A long, embarrasing time ago, Chet once posted a thread that recieved very, very little attention:

http://groups-beta.google.com/group/soc.history.what-if/browse_frm/th...

There were a few issues with the original post. The first was that there was an awful lot of hand waving. The second was that there was very little extrapolation of the consequencesof his proposed changes to the TL.

But it is still an intriguing idea!

Let's make it work. Or at least try.

No matter what we do, because of the time frames involved we're going to get a very different TL. I think it's best to not destroy humanity in the process so that we have some sort ofhistory and keep the whole shindig on-topic.

Modern man seems to date from about 200k years ago. That's a long, long time from the civ POV. The arisal of modern man puts an ancient TL bounds on when we can start this process moving faster. I'd rather have it take place at about the 75k yo range since that's the beginning of somemajor toolkit changes. We'll see if that works.

The mechanism is that we move (here's my handwave, smack it if ya like) one of the hotter hotspots from southeast of africa in the mantle to under the East African Rift Valley. We'll assume that we get the upperbounds of rift spreading(13 cm/year) with the extra heat.

The Somali Plate can move southeast 26 km if we use the 200k year start point. We only get 9 3/4 km if we use the 75k year start point. I'd say we're out of luck for going with a Middle Paleolithic PoD then. Even 26 km isn't that much and the resulting channel, if its there, willprobably be only 10 km wide at best.

There's probably not that much difference in fauna or flora. 10 km of shallow - 155m deep or less - gulf make it more like the Bosporus than the differences between Arabia and Africa. The shoreline between Africa and East Africa is more in common with Crimea than something on the Med North African Coast...but stretching for very, very long distances. The climate is prolly not that different from now, but then we have a very warm and shallow sea that stretches from the Gulf of Aden to almost Madagascar[1]. This might get interesting climatic effects. The tides might be less, but with the warm water we might get some nasty currents. Warm and shallow, we might find this sea - the Olduvai Sea? - to be rather fertile.

There will be some intersting consequences of this spread though for historical purposes: there would either be no Nile or a much reduced Nile. So! There's probably no *Egypt arising. However, I don't think that there's much difference in where Civ is going to arise elsewhere though: The Middle East, Ganges, and Chinese Rivers are likely to be the cradles of civilization still. It's just the *Nile that might get jipped. I don't think that we'll see anything arise here that's a First One civilization, but once the others start ship building, something may take root on the northern tip of the Great East African Island. The diseaseenviroment is not going to be improved much, I think. :)

Thoughts?

Will

Friday, May 06, 2005

"no less than the first culture war in cyberspace"

You gotta read it here to believe it.

It seems that Google is the latest Anglo-American plot TO RULE THE WORLD!!!!!!

CURSES WE'VE BEEN FOUND OUT!

*insert glyph of rolling eyes*

Spoke a bit too soon

My wife wanted me to buy a case for our digital camera from Amazon. I found one that'd fit the bill, but it was $10: she wanted the free shipping which to get you have to spend $25. I bought another book: Centauri Dreams : Imagining and Planning Interstellar Exploration. Not exactly rockets, but its something that isn't too far off. That pushed the order up just past the required dinero mark.

Reading list for May

I've been finishing off the phytoremediation book. It's been taking so fracking long! Now I remember why I dislike chemisery so much. Bleh. I'll let that one gel and move onto the next phytoremediation book next month. Once I'm done I'll be reading,a s much as Avrora and Lyuda let me, the following books:

First off will be Charlie Stross' Singularity Sky. I need a mental rinse and spit after so much chemistry and biology. Charlie's book is supposed to be good, so why not?

Following right after will probably be Sea Dragons: Predators Of The Prehistoric Oceans. Like I said, I love dinos and other exotic prehistoric critters. The mesosaurs and other sea going critters are something I've neglected in my reading. Something on the pterosaurs might be next for my prehistoric reading, esp if its really recent.

Gregory Benford's Tides of Light will follow suit, but I'm not expecting anything really special nor interesting. I liked the previous two books, sooo...

The Pentagon's New Map by
Thomas Barnett will follow. I don't have great hopes for it, but I have a feeling I need to get myself spun up more on the political leanings of all these bipeds I coinhabit the US with. That's not to say I've not been over time nor have I not been paying attention to the news and such. It's just I've not been picking up their books and reading them. This is a Neocon text, so I better dig through it to ponder our Glorious (*hack*cough*choke*) Leader.

Dictionary of Angels: Including the Fallen Angels by Gustav Davidson will be after that. I'll be using that for something I am writing that I've not released into the wild yet and my Machiavelli in Morea. I had an interesting idea there. Moreans are more religious in some ways than Italians...Mach can smell it.

Finally for this month will be
AI for Game Developers. An O'Reilly book. I'm not actually reading it for the PoV for game development so much as I am for some mental cross pollenization.

There might be more, but I am unsure what the topic would be. I'd like to delve back into rocket propulsion tech again, but the books are outside my play budget at the moment with what I've spent so far.

Being married to an accountant has certain perks and...drawbacks. *chuckles*


Thursday, May 05, 2005

Baby Baird Picture: Viva la revolution!

The Proteus Project (An Extrasolar Planet of sorts)

A different subject altogether. Some friends and I have been working on a project. it's been a lot of fun. The background has started to become very detailed and fascinating. The funny part is that background past a point isn't important. As a matter of fact, it's really getting waaaay more detailed than it ought to be. That's ok, cuz its fun, but it'll prolly almost all be ignored when the time comes. I'll post a map in the future.

Proteus is a moon of a gas giant, Poseidon. It's about 1.2 times the size of Earth and has a similar density. The atmosphere is breathable. Proteus went through a very long period - almost 300 million years - of a relatively inactive geology. At the time, the continents didn't move and the ecologies were biologically isolated. About 75 million years ago, the orbital resonances with the other moons of Poseidon reheated the core sufficiently that the continents drifted again. About 15 million years ago, 5 of the continents began to collide to produce a supercontinent. Each subcontinent had a radically different ecology.

Currently there are three "continents". One occupies the same position as Antarctica and is named "Hecate". Really it's something of a clone of Antarctica, but it will have its own twists. An ecology of warm blooded plants might be one idea in some remote valleys.

The second continent is Hellas. It's a very long and thin continent that seems like an overgrown blend of Greece and Norway. It's very rocky and mountainous, full of isolated valleys and canyons, mountains and mesas, beaches and tepuis. It makes for a very diverse, yet fragile set of ecosystems.

The supercontinent doesn't have a collective name. Each of the subcontinents are named. Sunken Mars, Bactria, Scythia, Aigyptos, Pallene, and Asbystes are the subcontinents.

Aigyptos was originally called Bull's Eye. It's in the center of the supercontinent. It has Himalayan style ranges on almost every side. Only on a very narrow - 200 mile/320 km - face does it meet with the sea at all. There it's extremely wet, being like Thailand. Interior wise though is much like a blend of New Mexico (USA), the South American tepuis, and Tibet. Very dry with a lot of temperature extremes.

Sunken Mars is something of a cross between Polynesia, the moon, and The Great Barrier Reef. It is west-southwest of Aigyptos. During the ecologically inactive stage of Proteus, this was very bombarded by meteors and then worn down by erosion. As the crater lips ended up being weathered away, corals began growing on the barely submerged lands. This ended up reinforcing and preserving, over time, the shapes of the impacts, many hundreds of millions of years past the bombardment. Sunken Mars is semiequitorial and where its plate has pushed up against Aigyptos a Himalayan range has risen. I originally lobbied for this to be called Greater Polynesia...but I lost. :)

Pallene is south of Aigyptos. It looks like an enlarged, flipped, and stretched version of Indochina Pennisula. It's a land of jungles, both tropical and temperate.

To the northeast is Scythia. It's closest analog would be Australia in climate. An isolated area of forests, but the majority is desert and plains.

To the northeast is Asbystes. This is something of an Asia analog, but not really at the same time. It stretches from its impact range where it abutes Aigyptos all the way up to the North Pole where it wraps itself around a very large bay like the Hudson's where the Arctic ice cap sits. The Pennisula that wraps around the arctic stretches south again. There it meets up with Bactria, a very small continent.

This is a sample of what's coming from the Bactrian wildlife. Bactria is the small subcontinent that was once called minime. It is a continent that looks wrinkled from orbit. It looks a lot like someone had taken the Rockies and made them into a continent. Due to its position in on Proteus, Bactria is a taiga biome. So, if you were to look at the comparable place from Earth, it would be the Canadian Rockies. Amusingly, a kids' website gives a good run down: here.

Originally, Bactria had been an equatorial continent and the wildlife reflected this. It was a land of rolling hills and a handful of mountains. Lush, the primary biome had been a rainforest. Thus, the soil poor even if the wildlife teemed and the plants were lush. The preeminent animal life was in the form of large arthropods and amphibians. The animal life could be best described as analogous to Carboniferous Age on Earth, but with accents that look like they could have come from the Cambrian. The plant life was actually more evolved than the equivalent Earth life: the flowering and fruit bearing plants were present.

However, over the last 50 million years, Bactria has marched its way northwest across the temperate and into the taiga zones. The mountain building for Bactria began several million years ago (about 20) when the continental shelf began to close in on the very far north of Asbystes. This caused a ecological crisis. The once very connected ecology of the continent became fragmented. With the still relatively poor soil, and now extreme temperatures being exasperated by the now uplifted terrain.

The fragmented areas made for a lot of places for creatures to evolve in isolation. Interestingly, it seems that the combination of temperature stress and isolation gave rise to a very odd symbiotic form of life. Where the lichen is an alliance between the fungus and the algae, the critters of Bactria are a similar alliance between animal and plant. About 10 million years ago, the Cardian Dualists burst out from their valley and overran the whole continent. So successful were these creatures that it is suspected, barring unforeseen events, the Cardians will supplant the last of the nonCardian native creatures in Bactria. There are even some that have successfully crossed the Great Barrier Mountains to the north and are spreading, albeit very slowly, in Asbystes.

Consider the Spiny Back. It's an amphibian that would have be noted, had it been in Earth's fossil record, as a step between the amphibians and reptiles. It has a horned, spiny back not unlike a porcupine, but remains a creature than needs water on a regular basis. Its layout is not unlike a salamander, with a long strong, but vertically spiked tail. The females grow to be a good 6 ft in length, like a small croc. The female is an herbivorous browser, like a goat. The males are much smaller, about 6 inches. The male is also a nectar eater, like a hummingbird, or some bats. What makes the Spiny Back so strange is that it has a fruit bearing plant growing in the female's body. The plant grows such that it entangles the reproductive system. When the Spiny Back mates, the plant releases a hormone to prevent the female from laying the eggs. Indeed, the plant even encystes each egg and nuzzles a seed up to each embryo. Over time, a female would be carrying dozens of eggs. In addition, the plant will begin filling the "empty" spaces of the female with tubers of collected sugars and such. During the last stages of a female spiny back's life, she develops a great deal of bright colors. This is because she has become poisonous, the plant itself is excreting the toxins, which the female is immune, but it is necessary to have a new line of defense because the female has become so slow due to the metabolic demands of the plant and eggs. When the metabolic stress from carrying the tubers and all those eggs gets too much, the female dies. The plant quickly uses the body and the tubers as fuel to grow into a tree.

The eggs of the Spiny Back are kept in well-protected fruits, until the fruit is ripe. Until it is ripe, a hormone is released by the now tree like plant that retards development of the embryo, but does not stop it. Once embryo has hit a tadpole stage, the liquid filled fruit is moved from inside the branches out to be exposed to the air. Once the tadpole has transformed into a anatomically mature, though very small (6") adult, the fruit has ripened and drops to the ground. There the Spiny Back eats its way out and wanders out into the world. The whole time a seed has been in the back of the creature. By the time it is sexually mature, the plant will have grown to the female sexual form and be waiting to be pollinated. The males of the Spiny Backs do just that by eating the nectar of the adult "male" tree and bring it with them when they mate the female spiny backs.

The great advantages are that the symbiotic plants get spread very far and wide being dropped over 20 miles from where they originally "treed". The Spiny Back gets a protective place for its tadpoles to grow, especially during the colder winter months, since the adult tree cultivates decomposing bacteria that give off heat to keep the tadpole "warm enough".

There is a great deal of variation on this theme in the Bactrian ecological landscape. Plants that ally with the vertebrates seem to be mutually beneficial and the most predominate. There are some that are purely parasitical and try to infect whatever nearest mobile animal is present: the Cardian critters are generally protected because their plants start a herbicidal war to protect them. That is why the arthropods are slowly going extinct: the infectious parasites are wiping them out by infecting, then eating them up inside, and finally overwhelming them and growing a plant to infect others.

As a result, niches formerly filled by insects and their analogs are being filled by small Cardian vertebrates. Despite what would seem like a chance for nature to create a great deal of valley specific ecosystems, the nature of the Bactrian flora-fauna has made the subcontinent a very homogenous ecology.

The Extrasolar Planet Encyclopaedia

For over a decade now, Jean Schneider of the Paris Observatory has maintaining The Extrasolar Planet Encyclopaedia. This is really the definitive guide to all the planets detected or suspected around other stars than our own. If you're looking for a star to set a story around, this is the place. If you're looking for just a reference guide, ditto. I am sure that from all of this data that there is a paper profiling the discoveries to date is just waiting to be written.

Enjoy.

Wednesday, May 04, 2005

More on the CEV

Take a look here. It's Lockmart's CEV homepage.

Dinos!

I love dinosaurs. I have since I was a kid. When I was four, I could name dozens of them. I follow the new discoveries with a passion. However, I've since branched out into other paleontological crittes as well for fascination as well. However, recently there have been two dinos that caught my attention being in the news and all. The first one was a a new pachycephalosaur. The second is a new therizinosaur.

Images of them attached below:




Tuesday, May 03, 2005

I am really looking forward to this...

Alien Planet looks to be very interesting. It's based off of Wayne Barlowe's Expedition. I found this book my senior year of high school in Los Alamos in our little local book store. I loved it. In the same vein as this program was The Future is Wild which was also run on the Discovery Channel. Since I was a kid, world building exercises have held my attention far, far more than anything else: Dougal Dixon's After Man and New Dinosaurs being good examples. Of the ones that I have participated in, James Nicoll's Behind the Green Door has been the most fun. James and my discussion of sea going ratites from another thread seems to be in the plans to be fed back in.

Anyways, I gotta get some paperwork done for turning over my rotation at 1 pm to the next lucky soul. ha ha ha.

Lockheed's Crew Exploration Vehicle Proposal

Glimpse here, here, and here.

Quick Comments:

The lifting body I can see appealing to the NASA types. They've been in love with lifting bodies since the 1970s.

Damn the Mars version looks small. I couldn't see being in that for 6+ months.

I dinna see where you'd dock with anything else. hm.

Northrop Grumman and Boeing were supposed to be working on versions as well, but all I can see right now in some of the articles is that NorthGrum is working on one. No word on Boeing.

Monday, May 02, 2005

Solar Sails

It seems that NASA has decided that solar sails are tres kewl again. NASA Glen is testing out some solar sail material developed by ATK. I fell in love with solar sails back when I was in high school. It was because I discovered the book by Louis Friedman (cofounder of The Planetary Society) on the subject matter: Starsailing.

I foolishly tried to get involved with the Columbus 500 Space Sail Cup (or whatever its name was) while still in high school. It was a great idea a little before its time and I was a very young and foolish kid that really didn't know up from down there. Friends and I rolled a proposal that was technically a mess and moderately incoherent. We never made it very far and hopefully the technological review panel didn't laugh too hard when reading it. I did get to communicate with Dr Friedman though about it and being a kid I was delighted with the contact. Right now The Planetary Society is pushing through the Cosmos 1 solar sail. It launches on May 31st of this year! I really wish I was a participant.

I never quite understood why the technology didn't get adopted wholesale and sooner than now. I mean, you can get 'clipper ships' in space, damnit! It's also not uber high tech nor very expensive. I think that successful development of this is almost as important as the now moderately infamous CATS (Cheap Access To Space). Think of it as cheap access to the inner solar system for unmanned payloads. It seems like the ideal transportation method for asteroid mining.

Think of it as yet another technology on my Important To Develop list.


Thursday, April 28, 2005

I'm 50% Republican

That was so just plain wrong. There were at least 4 of those questions that I couldn't find an answer I liked. I'm insulted at being called a 'NASCAR Dad'. I fracking hate NASCAR.

Ah well.

I am:
50%
Republican.
"Congratulations, you're a swing voter. When they say 'Nascar Dad', they mean you. Every Republican ad on the TV set was made just for your viewing pleasure. Don't you feel special?"

Are You A Republican?

Ouch and Ouch: a Review of the Beagle 2 Project

Dwayne Day wrote an intersting pair of articles about the Beagle 2 probe. Read here and here.

The Consequences of Cheap First World Manufacturing

I've been thinking about the future alot lately. Part of this is because I now have a daughter that I need to plan her future for. Part of this is that I have some pent up SF novels that need to finish cooking before being turned loose. Part of this is because I just love playing with ideas.

There are a number of technologies that I think are going to be rather important over the next twenty to thirty years. Some of them I can participate in. Some of them I cannot. I am lucky enough that I am a relatively good study and know a lot of very bright people in a lot of fields due to my work. Some of them I might even get a chance to turn into businesses. I attempted that with an ISP back in the early-mid 1990s. Being rather young I lost my shirt when I trusted a bit too much to the guy running the business half. One of our rivals is insanely well off now. :S

My little quest to get into the phytomining business is a good example of one technology that, IMAAO, is going to be immensely important and exploitable. By me. With the right friends. Which I have. I think. I'm in the education process right now. They're chemists and biologists, I'm a 'puter geek with some business experience.

Another technology that I think is going to be rather important soon is that of inexpensive, easily reconfigurable manufacturing. I have a hunch that the state of robotics has passed a threshold. It would seem that Japanese agree with me. They are in the process of automating everything that they can for services and manual labor. This prevents the means of production from leaving the country depsite their demographic shift they're experiencing earlier than other First World Nations. There are some rather good strategic reasons for not letting this happen. Should there be a war that lasts longer than planned stockpiles can handle, new equipment can be manufactured. Or the likelihood of someone successfully bullying other manufacturing based countries into less than favourable sales to you is reduced as well. That's not what I want to consider here.

However, if one of the consequences of this technology is that it is cheaper to build X, Y, or Z locally, what does that do to international trade? Obviously, it doesn't destroy it. However, does it become a case of nations only trading with nations that can afford their toys? Consider if it were as cheap to make everything made in China here in the States? What would that mean?

I'm not sure, but I'd suspect that it'd make for a very wonkie set of trade relations.



Tuesday, April 26, 2005

Oh My

Lyudmila Baird is a riot shield that's water-resistant and fires plastic darts.

Avrora Baird is an energy drink that weighs anything you put on top of it and can run MAME roms.

William Baird is a newspaper! It emits harmful gases!

The Future of the Nation State

I asked this question a while ago on alt.history.future. I actually think we've hit on the follow-on to the nation-state already. Surprisingly, it's been around a lot longer than people think. In fact, it's been around for a very long time and I'm wondering if the nation-state wasn't simply a bit of ancient tribalism that occasionally washes up out of the a great 'memetic' sea from time to time.

To me, it seems there are two kinds of states out there right now. There are those that are inclusive in nature and those that are not. That is to say that people that move to that country have a culture that accepts their differences, adapts to them, and adapts them to the greater idea and cultural space: this is an inclusive state. The second is one that fights to keep itself pure especially from outside influences. If you don't adopt the their ways, you're unfit, unclean, without culture, uncivilized, an infidel or heathen.

The two models ought to sound familiar. The modern example that comes to mind immediately has been the traditional 'melting pot' of the US. Equally so Canada has been a good - no, actually, excellent! - example as well. In fact, most of the New World nations have followed this to one extent or another. Traditionally, the Old World is seen as the opposite: Japan and China from the East; France and Germany from the West; Russia and Iran from the Middle; the assorted tribes in Africa such as the very unfortunate Hutu and Tutsi.

Yet, surprisingly, despite the image of this exclusivist state that France, Germany, etc have the European Union is embarking on becoming this inclusivist and melting pot themselves. When the border restrictions within the EU are completely knocked down - including for the new members - that melting will take place: in fact, when I was in Rome a while back, I met a interesting couple. It was merely in passing. He was an Irishman, and she was a Pole (a stunningly good looking, blonde Pole at that!). Both were living in Rome. To some extent this has happened before, but the rate which this will happen will climb a lot over the next few decades (assuming the EU is a successful experiment in a neustadtism). Increasingly, being Polish, Irish, or German will fade to being European....much like what happens to immigrants to the US. Regionalisms will remain: The South, New York, California, and New Mexico still have their cultural quirks/bugs/features despite having had a nontrivial amounts of immigration. While the New York of 2005 is not the New York of 1905, its still definitely New York, not Mexico City nor London.

Why did I say that this was actually an old model being revived? The reason being is that the oldest inclusivist state that I can think of is actually the old pagan Roman Empire. They'd conquer, coopt, and adopt, often including the religion. The Rome of 3rd century BC was not the same as the Rome of the 2nd century AD despite the fact that people like think that things were relatively static the older cultures are.

Right now the US is having a crisis of identity. Are we going to be an inclusivist or exclusivist nation? The Conservatives of the Religious Right and the Anti-Immigration Crowd are pushing very hard right now to be an exclusivist state: their vision of the US is very narrow. VERY narrow. Equally so some of the far left is pushing for the same thing: their vision is equally narrow. Traditionally, we've been more of an inclusivist nation though: the Irish came and made an impact. Ditto the Italians and others. We were emphatetically not a perfect inclusivist nation but a work in progress. If either the extremes have their way, it'll no longer be.

I have a very strong feeling that the future is that we must an inclusivist nation and culture. The exclusivist nations are withering and their cultures are dying in the face of those that are willing to adopt and adapt. I am definitely thinking that the Inclusivist State, no longer the traditional nation-state is going to be the future for the next hundred plus years.

A footnote though is that the Inclusivist States and Cultures cannot so embrace themselves that they do not have a place of mixing. You take the salad bowl analogy too far and you end up with a lot of separate bowls that never mix. The importance is in the mixing and including the new ingredients. Hence the melting pot, not salad bowl POV here.

Anyways, just a long rambling thought.

Time for all of you, if you're out there, to take your potshots.



Thursday, April 21, 2005

Quick Kidlet update

Avrora went to the doctor's last night. I called into Kaiser just to verify that the goop in her left eye isn't anything to worry about. The advice nurse popped a gasket about me not being worried: my siblings all had this problem at one point or another. Avrora had no redness, no fussiness, no fever, no coughing, and no anything else that might be a problem. However the nurse insisted that we had an infection and that we go right away. We went. We spent 1 1/2 hours waiting for the Dr on call to get done with the patient before us. Lo and behold, there was no issue. Her tear duct, like many newborns is getting a little clogged. It'll unclog in time. We went home afetr 5 minutes with the Dr. The Doc even told us that she new almost instantly there was no issue and that our baby was definitely healthy.

Avrora weighed in at 8 lbs 14 oz and she's 20 1/2 inches. She's still gaining weight at a rate faster than the norm (according to the Docs): 1.37 oz/day. IDK where she is on the vertical growth rate whether its up down or just right. I'm not too worried though. She'll grow as she grows and all we can do is feed, love, and care for her. :D

Other thoughts later today.


Wednesday, April 20, 2005

Overdue & Promised

I promsied a while ago that I would talk about our visit to the the hypercompetive Russians. The reality is that I really shouldn't be calling them Russians. Of the crew there is only one Russian national: the Muscovite. The other two are ethnic Russians but from Kyrgyrzstan. One was an embassy worker that married the Muscovite and the other married an American. I'll call the women N and T respectively and the men P and J.

The one of the women (T) is hypercompetive with my wife. Lyuda does something T has to do it better or bigger or something. When my wife got her ring, T all but forced her husband to get another that had a bigger stone. A much bigger stone. When T heard that Lyuda was getting a car, she made her husband get one for her much faster (we bought a new one and she is galled that hers isn't). N never seemed to be competitive with my wife. However, that seems to have changed.

What changed? All three of them have babies and we all went to a birth party for T's baby.

N's is the oldest. He (L) is a very sweet child of about 1 1/2 years. He's funny and fun. He's shaped a little strange: his head is disproportionally huge and he has extra bones in his skull. He's developing along like a normal child. Nothing to be anything other than proud of. T's brand new son is (whom the party was for) is a little strange looking, but he's a newborn. They often looked a little squished and some such. Avrora was a little small so she didn't look that way though.

The women retreated into a back bedroom at this Newborn Party to breastfeed and that left the men up front. However, there was a steady stream of "Will! Tell T that Avrora really is already doing X, Y, or Z!" I'd explain, "Yes, she's doing X or Y or Z." Our poor daughter was having to demonstrate holding her head or pushing herself up or whatnot while she was hungry. T and N started getting really jealous. N had told us when her baby had done X, Y, and Z prior to Avrora's birth. After watching Avrora she revised her statement saying, oh yes her son had done that as early as Avrora. *sighs* T kept muttering that what was happening was impossible because all the books had said it was. I thought the whole thing was ridiculous, personally and so did my wife. Every baby develops differently. Some get ahead. Some do not. Some start fast and slow down. Vice versa too.

Is Avrora early for developing stuff? Right now, yeah.

Is it a little remarkable since she was premature? Yup.

I it something that these women ought to get into a tizzy about? Nope.

The men chatted, awkwardly, out in the livingroom while the women were off having their pissing contest. P and I don't really get along that well. We've reached an awkward, armed neutrality with one another. The other man is J and he's a librarian that's about a decade older. The three men sat around and chatted, but we were not overly comfortable. We were just making the best of the situation.

In the end we split, women finished jockeying for position when Avrora and the newborn had their photos taken together. When turned to look at each other, Avrora reached out for the newborn to touch and grab. Lyuda quickly snapped some picts...but from the wrong angle so neither expressions nor to show what Avrora was up to. I got a good look and so did J since we were holding the kidlets.


Friday, April 15, 2005

It seems I speak...

75% American English
25% Yankee.

damn. Considering I've never even been to the Yanqi-ish parts of the US that's mildly disturbing. *chuckles* That's definitely an eastern US biased linguistic test. No mention of anything that might be Southwestern in origin nor Californian, frex. Californian has had some nontrivial lendings. Also, I'd break out Texan from Dixie, personally.


Wednesday, April 13, 2005

Broadcast Ping

Anyone actually read this or am I merely babbling to myself in the dark?

Tuesday, April 12, 2005

I'm a knight...boggle

I was looking over some shwian blogs and saw the 'Who would you be in 1400' test. I took it. I turned out to be a knight:

The Knight
You scored 23% Cardinal, 46% Monk, 44% Lady, and 62% Knight!

You are the hero. Brave and bold. You are strong and utterly selfless. You are also a pawn to your superiors and will be lucky if you live very long. If you survive the Holy wars you are thrust into you will be praised for your valor and opportunities both romantic and financial will become available to you.

For my age group, I scored better than 23% on cardinal, 56% on monk, 51% on lady (hrm), and 79% on knight. IDK what to think of my age group.

The description of me doesn't really fit either. 'Pawn to your superiors...' *ROFLMAO* Heck, my superiors would roflmao too if they heard that. Bah. The test was just too short...if fun.

My favourite newsgroups seem to be dying

At one time I was big usenet poster. I had very good reputations on different groups and was even referenced by people outside of usenet for their discussions of stealth aircraft (frex). My interests spanned from palaeoanthropology to history to fusion physics to military matters to the scifi. Since I started nonself employed jobs in the later 90s my posting decreased. Then I moved to Cali to work for NERSC. That decreased things further. Right now I am pretty much restricted to three newsgroups because of the interests of time: rec.arts.sf.science (discussing scifi science), soc.history.what-if (discussing alternate history), and alt.history.future (discussing the future direction of history). All three of them seem to be in trouble.

rasf has had deadish times in the past and had many rebirths. It seems to be going through a slow period again. ahf is suffering the same fate. shwi is suffering from being spammed by revisionists. I thought maybe it was a case that we were just seeing a slow period, but I went and looked at google groups 'about this group' tools. It's actually rather depressing. All three groups have dropped in the amount of posting. Not only have they dropped, its been a downward trend since 2002 for all three. Additionally, it seems that there haven't been a whole lot of new posters for them in, well, ages. With AOL cutting off access to Usenet except through third party means we might have some serious problems. :S

I hate to say it, but is usenet getting to be on its last legs? blogspace doesn't seem to have the equivalent easily accessible exchange of ideas...:S

Monday, April 11, 2005

Something I wrote for a Terraformed Mars

I am yanking some world building material and caching it here.

Have fun. I had an interesting baby party this weekend. I'll discuss that another time.

This is the Argyre Sea on Mars and its different ecosystems:

The tubeworm-clam reefs.

The first ecology is the tubeworm and clam reefs. Very large tube
worms that grow to extraordinary heights (or from extraordinary
depths) compared to their Terran cousins form the central columns
of the reefs. These sometimes get tangled with one another. A
fast growing and breeding clam attaches itself outside the range
of the cleaning capability of the worms, these pile up over time
as clams die and grow atop the corpses of previous generations.
The reefs are generally pyramidal in shape, but shaped by currents.
They are often dotted with sea anemonaes and sponges. Where the
reefs breach the water, a specialized grass grows on the coral
along with a silica secreting semisponge that builds a twisted
skeleton up into the air. There is also a metalophillic mussel
that secrets metals into its shell as protection from most lifeforms.

The most important resident of the reef is the metalophillic
crab. It hunts for alien smelling lifeforms and eats them.
When there are none, or very few, the crabs eat the mussels. The
crabs shells are also laced with a very large portion of metal as
protection from each other and predators. The crabs are social.
They have two distinct living behaviors that is causing them
speciate. The first is the krem building subspecies. This one
takes young tubeworm reefs and shapes them into nests called
'krems'. They use this as fortresses. The second variety is that
which spreads to new ecosystems and acts a little like a mercenary,
eventually adopting itself into the local ecology and defending it.
The first is the intended behavior. The second is something that
has developed since the engineers introduced the crabs thousands of
years ago. Both varieties have a once-every-seven year mass exodus.
This is due to population pressure. The alien smelling life and
mussels get depleted and there are too many crabs. The vast majority
of them march off looking for new territory. OFten larva and seeds
stick to the crabs as they leave, helping to spread the tubeworm-clam
ecosystem. It also rips up any foreign ecosystems that the crab
marches encounter. The crab young are far more vulernable as that
they haven't accumulated much metal as yet and many fish eat them.

Designed in the same vein, but rather different in ancestry is the
gem crab. Its derived from landcrabs and is an airbreather. It lives
atop the reefs fighting off foreign lifeform invasions. Its a lot
rarer since there are a lot less water breaching reefs than on earth.
However, they do make use of semisponges like the wasps building their
own aerial krems.

Also living atop the reefs, annotating the semisponge growths are
the sea wasps. These secrete calcium through symbiotes to attach
onto the skeletal structures. The diving wasps' poison is a relaxant
and it uses it to hunt clams. The wasps are actually quite large,
being over 6" (15 cm) long.

The wasps' primary enemies are an armored lobefin fish and the
Aresian Archer. The lobefin that lays its eggs in the sea anemonaes
and crawls onto land to raid the wasp nests. The Aresian Archer
spits a jet of water and sticky saliva that takes down a wasp where
the sharp toothed archer fish deriv can tear it apart.

2. The Kelp Forests

The kelp forests are in deeper waters than the reefs can tolerate.
The kelp grows to much, much longer strands than on earth. There's
not much else that the kelp is noted for. However, some of the
animals that live there are quite interesting and exotic.

The flaminguin is one of those. Retaining its famous color, the
flaminguin has been radically altered from its original form.
The beak has been greatly enlarged, both in width and length, specificly
modified for supporting the filter feeder lifestyle that this bird
deriv lives. Secondly, the neck, while still quite long, is stouter
for the purpose of supporting that neck. The wings have grown immensely
to give the flaminguin a manta-like appearance when it is swimming.
Its legs are much reduced in length to almost, but not quite, penguin
proportions. It lives as a flocking filter feeder for most of the
year in the reefs save for breeding time. Then it seeks out the northern
isles of the Argyre Sea and nests in the beach sands.

The second notable creature is also a bird deriv, but it lives in, or
above, the kelp forest year round. These are the hive cormorant. its
name is a little bit of a misnomer. They do make large floating balls
of kelp that act as communal nests. There are no specific breeders or
nonbreeders, nor queens, workers, or drones. They are flightless.
Their role in the kelp forest is something of a defender and a tender.
Colonies are intensely competitive with each other. If a kelp forest
is large enough, you will see multiple colonies. If there's not
enough distance between the colonies, some very vicious territorial
fights will ensue.

Another resident is the very lethal dart snail. The dart snail breeds
quickly in the presence of food, but its normal food is metalophilic
crab that periodicly wanders it or wanders through in the form of mass
migration. It uses a poison tipped 'foot' that can pierce the weak
points in the crab's shell.

An interesting creature that inhabits the bottom waters of the kelp
forest almost exclusively is the filter feeding sea slug. It is a
free swimmer and grows to be about 10 cm in length. Recalling Amiskwia
of the Burgess Shale, it swims about acting as a filter feeder as well.

The kelp forests are also the spawning grown for the camouflage lobster.
This lobster migrates between the deeper parts of the Argyre Sea and
the Kelp Forests. There is only one thing that is really notable about
this lobster since by and far it is a standard lobster in most ways.
That one notable feature is that it has a symbiotic sponge that grows
on its shell. That sponge filter feeds while the lobster moves along.
It acts as a bit of camouflage for the lobster at times and as something
less than tasty should a predator try to eat the lobster.

Thursday, April 07, 2005

Quickies

I have found two lots that I need to talk my wife into going to check out this weekend. They are land, obviously. I have been bent on building a house for some time. One of them is in Marin County. It's set in redwoods and abuts a seasonal creek. The other is in Alameda County and is 20 acres in size. Marin is where I really want to be at though. I guess I grew up in areas with a lot less population density and I have grown to miss it. A lot. I rather like the redwood forests which is something we didn't have back in NM.

Baby Baird was up almost all night. I need to get my wife to crash and relax more so she can sleep. Heck, I need more sleep right now. Caffeine is not the way to go LT.

I have started working out again. I am badly out of shape in comparative terms. I can't believe how quick I put back on the weight I worked so hard to get rid of. Ah well, back to it, eh?

Monday, April 04, 2005

Back to Work

Today is my first day at work since Avrora was born.

Wee! Actually, I think I'd enjoy being at home with the kidlet and mom more than this.

I am getting caught up on everything. We'll see where we go. I'm glad I was gone for the last month. It revealed a lot of stress that I had. That helepd with the attitude I had been developing too.

On a different note, let me say that I have been enjoying the new Battlestar Galactica. Mostly. It seems a little oversexed at times, but its come down a lot. Also its a little frustrating because the first season just asked questions. There was absolutely no emotional pay off with some sort of tying up of any of the character threads posed this season. Zilch. Would have been nice if just *ONE* had been really...

Philopolis. I am starting to contemplate what that means to Machiavelli. It should be interesting to spin it out. I have to resolve the Kunikos-Mach debates and the roll that Oriestes is playing. She's more important after the debates than during. I know the general parts of where I want to go with Machiavelli in Morea. It's just that I need the time and the thought that writing pseudoMachiavelli requires...and with a new baby...ergh.

Friday, April 01, 2005

An interesting table: property values over the last year in Alameda County, CA

Median Home Prices for Alameda County

Area Jan 05 Jan 04 Change
Alameda Co $500,000.00 $415,000.00 20.5%
Alameda $593,000.00 $507,500.00 16.8%
Albany $500,000.00 $337,500.00 48.1%
Berkeley $485,000.00 $496,750.00 -2.4%
Castro Valley $558,000.00 $449,500.00 24.1%
Dublin $580,000.00 $453,500.00 27.9%
Emeryville $385,000.00 $310,000.00 24.2%
Fremont $565,000.00 $455,000.00 24.2%
Hayward $466,500.00 $393,500.00 18.6%
Livermore $545,000.00 $453,000.00 20.3%
Newark $495,000.00 $407,000.00 21.6%
Oakland $390,000.00 $335,000.00 16.4%
Pleasanton $686,500.00 $632,000.00 8.6%


I can't see how this is sustainable at all...must suck to be a home owner in Berkeley though! I suspect its because of all the problems the city is facing right now budgetarily and otherwise.

Thursday, March 31, 2005

A Moment of Praise for My Wife & Thoughts

Something that I've not done yet is to speak really well of my wife. Lyuda is an amazing woman and deserves a moment of praise here.

First off, she's an amazing mom. She's taken to being a mother for our new daughter like a duck to water...and this is her first child. Avrora couldn't be luckier! Lyuda never flips out. She never gets angry with our daughter. I've seen so many first time mommies go nuts at some time in that first month as they get used to having their passenger become a the new family backseat driver. That's not my wife. Even in moments that would have embarrassed my wife to no end before she had a baby - the 3 ft projectile feces aka the Poopizooka - do not phase her: it blew away and upset the lactation nurse, but not my wife. Whether its three am or the middle of the day or whenever, she's always there for Avrora even if it means disrupting our own plans. Even if it was something she wanted to do. My wife is trying for patron saint of newborns.

Let me also say that my wife is still the most stunningly beautiful woman I have ever met. Her gorgeous green eyes are set off wonderfully by her long black hair. Her high cheeks are simply amazing and totally unique. Her figure, while a bit abused by carrying a Baird child, is snapping back rather nicely as she breast feeds and starts exercising. She can kiss and make me see stars. I love her. I try my best to tell and show her, but sometimes I feel that I cannot even come close to what I feel in words. I love her. I love her like I have never loved before.

In other thoughts, my wife wants to go on a trip in May or June. A road trip or flying trip. Either we're going to roadtrip to LA and Las Vegas or we're going to fly to LV. I have a friend there that I have known for a decade now - since college - that really wants us to come. She wants to meet Lyuda and Avrora very much. Suzanne is great, but a little...different. She's a chemist and married, but sometimes doesn't know when to leave comments "in the box". She's one of those that I want to do the phytomining business with, her and a female friend (Sarah) that's a biologist.

Avrora still hasn't decided on her hair color. She has a balding man's fringe around the sides (think Patrick Stewart's hair here) and back of her head that's very dark like her mother's and atop her head is blonde like her father's. Everyone keeps telling me that all of this will fall out and her final hair color will be revealed then. FYI, mine didn't when I was a child. My mother says that is really unusual. It would be very unusual if Avrora was blonde: there are no blondes in my wife's family AFAWK ever. Both the dark and light hair on her head is growing longer so neither looks like baby fuzz.

Her eyes are changing color. They were a dark, dark blue like all babies. They're lightening and seem to be taking on a green color. That's not a surprise considering my wife has green eyes and I have blue-green ones.


Saturday, March 26, 2005

Oy! What a bit of catching up to do!

Well, first off, sorry for not posting for so long. I've been rather busy with Baby Baird. Actually, I'm pretty darn tired as it is. Baby and Mom are down for a nap. Last night was the hardest so far. I'm sure that there will be harder, but in general she's a VERY happy baby.

First off, clearing up the name. Avrora Devika Baird was born on Feb 28th, 2005 at 8:17 am after an 8 hour labor and 20-30 minute delivery. She was 5 lbs 10 oz and 18.5 inches long. My wife moaned through the first 4 hours of labor saying that she wasn't built or meant to have babies. After the speed of having her first baby (labor and delivery here, folks), the Dr's and nurses came to me afterwards and told me to get my wife to the hospital ASAP next time cuz the baby was going to be coming uber quick.

How did she end up Avrora instead of of Aurora like I thought we were doing? Well, my wife pronounces it that way with her Donbass Ukrainian accent. She snuck it on to her birth certificate when I wasn't at the hospital. I caved. I've learned when to pick my battles. I just tell everyone that its the Latin spelling...which seems to confuse some Hispanics for a moment. How did we pick Avrora? Well, actually it was on my list originally of favorite names. However, my wife hated everything on my list when we compiled our mutual lists. She had one of her own...which she ended up hating too. She started hunting through literature for names. She remembered a favorite author (George Sand) was a woman and wanted to know her real name. One of them was Aurore. We discussed it. My wife liked it. We anglicized it. She then Ukrainianized (?!) it. Devika came about because it was really, really close to a nickname that Lyuda's mother had for her and her sister that came from the Russian word for little girl.

I just revealed to my wife that Aurora was on my original list that she rejected a day or so ago. She was stunned. Originally she was supposed to pick the first name and I was going to pick the middle name. Even though my wife technically picked the first one and I technically picked the middle name, it seems more like the opposite really ended up happening. *chuckles* A well...

Anyways, I've been off on paternity leave since the 28th. I'll be returning to work on the 4th. A lot of hairy stuff has happened in the project I was working on, but I'm actually glad to be standing aside at this point. The political nonsense just got too deep and I was going to end up lobbing a grenade at some point. My new, beautiful daughter has given me some perspective.

Tomorrow was her original date that she was supposed to be born. Had Avrora been born then, she'd have been a mongo baby on the order that my family runs to: I was the smallest baby at 8 lbs 6 oz. My brother was ~50% heavier. It's Easter tomorrow and I've done up some baskets already for my wife and daughter. I know I'll end up with Avrora's candy but it was fun to do our first Easter like this.

Anyways, I've started trying to get up at my old times (pushing back the alarm to 5:15 am again) and started exercising again as well. I've started reading the phytoremediation book again. I am planning on starting to read and right alternate history, sfnal stuff and ahf hud again. Time will tell how successful I am.


Tuesday, March 01, 2005

QUick Note: Baby born

Aurora Devika Baird was born at 8:17 am. She is 5 lbs 10 oz and 18.5 in.

Mom is doing wonderfully. Dad's tired.

Wednesday, February 23, 2005

Moved

My wife and I have moved. We're out of the old place and in the new one. The new place isn't as much of a tight fit as I was worried about. The primary things left to take care of are the book shelves (finding homes for them) and settling all my books into them. Beyond that, there's not a lot. I only have to sort out the DSL line.

We have her car!!! FINALLY! There's a tad bit of paperwork to be done, but none too big. In general, alles ist kosher. She loves it which was the point. We're taking her out for test driving this weekend. She can drive, but she's nervous in the area. The SF Bay area is far more scary a place to drive than NM or her native Ukraine to her. I'll see about a pict at some point, but its a lil red PT Cruiser (her choice). I'm far more a Jeep kinda guy and I kept my old one, but we needed something baby compatible.

We had another run to Labor and Delivery. Aurora wasn't kicking as much as she normally does. Nothing wrong as far as the Doc's see. We worried over nothing. She was in a sleep cycle. Given how tired we've been this shouldn't have been a surprise. Based on their lil meter that they hooked Lyuda up to, Aurora was kicking just fine. Lyuda just wasn't feeling as much.

I'm still sick. Along with the move, I just haven't been up to reading or doing much. I've kept up with the new Battlestar Galactica. I really like it. I think the sex could be toned back considerably without any loss for the show's quality, but other than that, it's a damned good show. It definitely has the zeitgeist of a near genocide of humanity down pat.

We have an interview with INS (or whatever they're called these days) on March 3rd. This is a biggie. I'm not too worried. I just have to supply them with all the same things that we've supplied them with several times now. *sighs*

I'm still reading the phytoremediation book. It's long. It's chemistry. I don't like chemistry. Never have. Never will. I'm more for a physics and computers kinda guy. That doesn't mean I don't follow it. It doesn't mean that it's terribly difficult. I just don't enjoy it. I'm slogging my way through though.

Next months reading list looks to be a little short: A book on the American Hegemony, an AI coder's book for games, and a book on interstellar exploration. We have to replace our digital camera and buy baby stuff so that eats into the book budget a bit.

Thursday, February 17, 2005

argh!

Ok. The wife and I have been sick. Really sick. Actually, I have been more sick than my wife has been since last Friday. She has been better since Saturday. Where as I have had no chance to relax or sleep and its been killing me: as soon as I get mostly better, I have to do something in the cold, wet and without enough sleep. I get worse again. :S

She did have something not so fun happen to her though. Last Thursday night/Friday morning, we had to rush to Labor and Delivery. We were there for 6 hours. What happened? My wife is having contractions. They're periodic. They're not very strong though. They're constant though. The Dr's didn't know what to do. Aurora seemed to be happy as a clam. So, in the end, they sent us home.

We're also moving! Cheaper apt. We were living in my bachelor pad and since we're about to have a baby saving dinero might be advisable. So we're in the process of moving. We're about 40% done. We'll get the rest in a bit. We're getting help tomorrow.


Wednesday, February 09, 2005

Back to the Grind

My wife is mostly better. She's not feeling well, but the fever has broken and we've beaten back the drips. We spent a good chuk of yesterday at the hospital checking on Aurora. The Dr misunderstood us when she was kicking less when Lyuda came down with the flu. Normally, Aurora kicks - at the minimum - of once a minute. When Lyuda got the flu, Aurora kicked once every few minutes. The Dr got upset with us saying that we should have gone to Labor & Delivery immediately. We called in rather than showed up and L&D told us take lots of fluids and Tylenol for the fever. The fever never went close to the temperature that they worry about (101.4) and Aurora was kicking over double their worry rate (5 kicks per hour). It's just a lot less than her normal routine. After the check and pokes and prods, four hours worth, they pronounced her fine and sent us home. Lyuda and I were a little irritated: the doctors kept trying to think too much about what we were saying rather than just listening. We're articulate people. I understand that not everyone conveys what they're feeling properly. Oh well.

Anyways, after the pokes, prods, and ultrasound, Aurora started kicking and moving like a demon. She REALLY didn't having the ultrasound or the microphones attached to my wife's stomach. She kept it up for hours afterwards. She was kicking hard enough it hurt my wife!

Anyways, back to The Grind today. I really need to get that paper moving forward again. It's about a 1/4 done. The deployment plan was done on Friday. So I don't need to worry about that.

I have thoughts on NASA, etc., but that will have to wait for another time.

Sunday, February 06, 2005

My Wife is Sick

She's not doing so well at the moment. I think she just has a cold that is being exasperated by pregnancy. It kept her - and me - up most of the night. I am planning on taking her to the doctor tomorrow if this doesn't clear up. I'm worried about her. I really, really love her and worry about our daughter t'boot. She seems to be getting better though. Right now she is sleeping while I clean and do dishes, etc. I put on Beethoven's 6th to help soothe her (it worked! Amazing!) and cover the sounds of cleaning in the apartment.

Speaking apartments, we didn't get the one we wanted. Alas. We are have clinched one of two others: its our choice which. One has a view of the SF Bay. It's not bad. We were going to sign for this one on Sat, but when we went in to look at it a lot of things that were supposed to be fixed were not. I'm less than pleased. The agent was REALLY less than pleased. She told us to hold our money and she'll see about getting it fixed. We looked at another one without the view but south facing. It has less that needs to be remedied. We've switched our preference. We have the cashier's checks in hand. The agent is salivating. She's just trying to dodge around to get what we want. I'm really not happy though with how this has played out. grr.

The phytoremediation book is progressing. A lot less notes. I have the chemist in this project working up a projection on the cost for the necessary environmental lab. She's supposed to have something on monday. I need to talk again to the biologist involved. I think this will fly and pretty well. I just need to get myself educated enough to play conductor, but not be the one of instrumentalists.

Anyways, back to cleaning.

Friday, February 04, 2005

Just a little too much today

We just moved my office contents from Berkeley to Oakland. The old building was considered unsafe because of the Hayward Fault. They built that building at LBL during the 1980s and it met the codes then. The codes have changed and are more strict based on the big earthquake in 1989. They found that the building I was in would collapse catastrophicly and prolly killing most of those inside. So! I lost my office with a window as they tear down that building. Now I have one in Oakland only. Effectively, I had one in each place, but officially only in Berkeley. No more.

They trashed a machine in the move. I am getting a new computer out of that. They damaged an LCD. New one there too. I was also too late to prevent them from packing the charcoal and pencil drawings that my wife did for me. The one based on a Kamakura period painting is smudged. grrr. They also broke a frame with my wife's picture in it. *sighs*

I am supposed to make three different calls today for making appointments and such. One is about the car. One is about the new apartment. One is about a trip to the dentist. Bah.

I have had zilch goof off time and I need a night. I've been cleaning or working or cooking or helping Lyuda with her homework. She's taking another triple of english classes. She wants to finish cleaning up her english because she has an accent and fix her grammar. Her spoken English and reading ability outstrips her written at this point. She wants to get a University degree from here in the States and wants to ace everything and to do that...;)

We took a tour of Kaiser's Labor and Delivery Department. Lyuda and I both almost cried. I've wanted to be a dad for a loooong time, but wondered if it'd ever happen after teh flaming wreckage of my first marriage and some very horrible things that happened afterwards. Lyuda is a little scared, but touched as mucha s I am too. We're excited, terrified and happy all at once.


Wednesday, February 02, 2005

Thoughts on _Collapse_

I have been giving _Collapse_ a lot of thought. I have to say that I am not so sure that accept a lot of his ideas. Let me go through this a little bit before I get into the whys. I am definitely someone concerned about environmental problems even though I am of a nominally more conservative bent. Well, that most that I live around at least.

Jared Diamond makes another attempt at being predictive in anthropology and history. He puts together a list of conditions that are predictors for if a society will collapse. The index of made up of the following: environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbors, friendly trade partners, and a society's response to its environmental problems. As he goes forward through the first several sections of the book, he tries to point out where each of the failed or successful societies had each of his indicators tripped (or not). While this does break down later in the chapters - he doesn't talk about some of the indicators at all for some societies - he does make the attempt.

He starts out contrasting two dairy farms. One in Montana in the present day and the other in vanished Norse Greenland. Its a simple introduction that he outlines what he's getting at: that societies collapse through environmental problems and that we need to be really careful because we're headed down that path.

That leads into his discussion of the Bitterroot Valley of Montana in the USA. He started going there again on a regular basis for vacations with his family after having been there some as a boy. He seems to be enough of a regular that the locals have accepted him. He discusses the changes that have taken place in the environment since he went out there as a boy. Here he talks about the environmental problems that Montana, and specifically the Valley faces. He also discusses the changes that the people have seen and not been happy with: frex, the rich out of towners that have bought some of the land for their vaccation homes in closed communities. He presents four different viewpoints and positions through interviews of a fly fishing guide, a local real estate developer, a newcomer/"refugee" from Berkeley in California that is now a Montana state politico, and dairy farmer. He tries to make the case for Montana being a model of the world.

He then launches into discussions of past societies that have imploded, he states, through environmental issues. The first one covered is Easter Island. He does a fairly good job. Unfortunately, my knowledge of EI is rather limited, but it seems to match with what he states here. The EIers deforested the whole island and that pretty much screwed them but good. The next one covered is that of Pitcairn and the Henderson Islands prior to the Bounty's crew 'settling' there. Again, I know very little. It seems plausible enough.

He then launches into a discussion of the Anasazi. Here I have some knowledge. While I am not an anthropologist that specializes in that extinct culture, I lived in New Mexico for 17 years of my life. For 8 of them, I lived in northern New Mexico, specifically in Los Alamos, and walked the grounds of a lot of ruins there. In fact, it was a hobby of mine that I enjoyed. There are a lot of ruins there and in the surrounding mountains. All of them are Anasazi. The most famous happens to be what is now the Bandelier National Monument. That's the largest single largest concetration of impressive ruins. Its hardly the only one. Chaco's collapse is pretty well understood. Its rather well documented and even though there are some very controversial aspects of it, it is as he said, largely due to an environmental collapse. However, that's not what destroyed Anasazi civilization as a whole. He gives the impression that the center gave way and all was lost when the great droughts that would have destroyed almost any civilization destroyed Chaco. However, based on a lot of research, as I remember it, it was really the droughts that did it the Anasazi, not Chaco's fall. Frex, the environmental damage that he brings up in Chaco didn't take place in other sites (frex Bandelier). However, the drought did. The other places were then abandoned in the same time frame...when the drought crushed Chaco, which was already in bad shape, it did everyone else too. What was interesting in addition to all of this is that he has split societies that I could have sworn were considered Anasazi into multiple ones. The last book I picked up on the Anasazi had sites in the areas he has labeled as 'Mimbres' and 'Kayenta'. Those two are definitely in areas I remember to be traditionally a part of the Anasazi culture. Thena gain, as I said, I am not a Anasazist and I am not up on the latest research so its very possible that I am simply mistaken, but I began to wonder here about Diamond's accuracy and thrust.

The next culture he covered was the Maya. Drought and environmental damage was the collapsing agent for the fall from the so-called Classical Mayan period. I really don't know enough to comment. What he says is plausible. That might be his danger though: what he says is plausible, but not entirely accurate.

He then launches into a discussion of the success or failure of various Norse colonies. The ones covered in passing are the Orkneys, Shetlands, and Faeroes. Iceland is covered in some depth. These were all the sucessful colonies. Vinland is covered in some depth, but not so much since there's not a lot known. The most discussion is given to the Greenland colonies. There were two: the so-called Western and Eastern Settlements that should have been called north and south since they were both on the western side of Greenland. He gives a lot of discussion as what life was like in Norse Greenland. It was fun and interesting. He also gives his theories as to the demise of that society after existing for nearly half a millenium: Inuit hostility, the Crusades destroying the market for their main exports, the Little Ice Age, environmental exhaustion (clearing the forests and destroying pasture), and an inability to adapt to their new circumstances (ie not adopting Inuit techniques for hunting food).

He rounds out his discussion of past societies by a chapter on successful ones. The first is his true love of the New Guinea Highlands. The second is an island called Tikopia. The third was actually Tokugawa Japan.

He then moves on to modern societies and what's happening their. The first one goes through, what he feels, is the root cause of the genocide in Rwanda was that it was really a Malthusian problem. He provides data to back it up in the form of statistics about the decreasing farm sizes. He then goes through the history of Hispanola: Haiti and the Dominican Republic. He then walks through China's current environmental issues. Then he thoroughly thrashing Australia. In none of the cases does he take the stance that you are going to see an Anasazi style collapse. However, he fires off warning flares in a big way.

From there its the so-called practical lessons section. The first chapter is about why societies make bad decisions. Its interesting but nothing earth shattering. It boils down to a lot of 'NMP' (Not My Problem), other values (yes, values) and decisions that are net negatives. An awful lot of it seems like 20/20 hindsight rather than really helpful. He then alunches into a discussion of 'Big Business' and the environment for the next chapter. He goes through the whole discussion of the oil, hardrock mining, coal, logging, and seafood industries. Surprisingly, and a bit delightfully, he actually lays the blame for environmental problems not on big business, but on the public.

The next chapter, The World as a Polder: What does it all mean to us today? is a juicy one. He outlines twelve issues that must be fixed or addressed. I'll give very short quotes here:

1. "At an accelerating rate, we are destroying natural habitats or else converting them to human-made habitats, such as cities and villages, farmlands and pastures, roads and golf courses." pg 487

2. Overfishing.

3. "A significant fraction of wild species, populations, and genetic diversity has already been lost, and at present rates a large fraction of what remains will be lost within the next half-century." pg 488

4. "Soils of farmlands used for growing crops are being carried away by water and wind at rates between 10 and 40 times the rates of soil formation, and between 500 and 10,000 times soil erosion rates on forested land." pg 489

5. "The world's major energy sources, especially for industrial societies, are based on fossil fuels: oil, natural gas, and coal." pg 490 These will run out.

6. "Most of the world's freshwater in rivers and lakes is already being utilized for irrgation, domestic or industrial water, and in situ uses such as boat transportation corridors, fisheries, and recreation." pg 490 We're running out of freshwater.

7. Photosynthetic capacity limit. "...we are projected to be utilizing most of the world's terrestrial photosynthetic capacity by the middle of this century. That is, most energy fixed from sunglight will be used for human purposes, and little will be left over to support the growth of natural plant communities, such as natural forests." pg 491

8. "The chemical industry and many other industries manufacture or release into the air, soil, oceans, lakes, and rivers many toxic chemicals..." pg 491.

9. Alien species destroying ecosystems. "The term 'alien species refers to species that we transfer intentionally or inadvertantly, from a place where they are native to another place where they are not native." pg 492

10. Human modification of the atmosphere. Ozone layer, global warming, etc. pg 493

11. Population growth out of hand. pg 494

12. Population's impact on environment. pg 495

He wraps up by saying he's actually cautiously optomistic.

My favourite juicy quote:

"People in the Third World aspire to First World living standards.
They develop that aspiration through watching television, seeing
advertisements for First World consumer products sold in their
countries, and observing First World visitors to their countries.
Even in remote villages and refugee camps today, people know about
the outside world. Third World citizens are encouraged in that
aspiration by First World and United Nations Development agencies,
which hold out to them the prospect of achieving their dram if they
will only adopt the right policies, like balancing their national
budgets, investing in education and infrastructure, and so on.

"But no one at the U.N. or First World governments is willing to
acknowledge the dream's impossibility: the unsustainability of a
world in which the Third World's large population were to reach
and maintain current First World living standards."

Chapter 16
The World as a Polder: What does It All Mean to Us Today
Pgs 495 to 496


Okay, some general thoughts.

Throughout the book, he comes across as disliking complex societies. They fail, often, in his view and are thus unsustainable. The adoration that Diamond gives to the New Guinea Highlands society seems to bleed over here. It seems to me that this isn't just his issue, but one that antrhopologists often develop: the society they are studying becomes superior to their own PDQ. I've seen it for those studying Native American cultures, Arab cultures, and others. Alas.

He's very dismissive of new technologies changing the circumstances that lead to this, that or another problem. I can think of one that immediately changed things: the electricity. The air quality in London in the 19th century was, well, killing people through coal burning. Electricity helped change that. In the future, fuel cells could fix one issue PDQ. Another would be the now beginning deployment of phytomining and phytoextraction. These could really change how we mine metals. There are others that will have as much of an impact.

I have to say that I simply don't buy what he's saying. His collapsing societies were always in ecological marginal regions. If he could have picked, say, the Roman Empire and proven it or one of the Chinese Dynasties, then his point would ahve been accepted far better. My favorite juicy quote is another good example. Just doing the math some friends of mine online pointed out there's a lot more capacity out there and that efficiencies can be brought into the current system without too much of a problem that will fix a lot of what he's complaining about in the form of unsustainable resource consumption.

It's not to say that I don't think there are not problems that desperately need fixing - that's putting it mildly! - but rather that he is panicking too soon and drawing the wrong conclusions from the wrong places. He's extrapolating from a data set that preagrees with his hypothesis rather than a more generalist one. In essence, he's saying the whole of the earth is now an ecologically marginal habitat and I don't buy it since he failed to prove it in my mind.

The book was a good read and I recommend it just for the thought provokingness, but I ask that you cross check and think about it rather than take it as a bible. it might be better to pick it up as a paperback when the time comes. I was lucky and got it as BDay present from my wife. :)

Tuesday, February 01, 2005

Getting some personal overload at the moment.

First, we're trying to move. A new apartment is needed with Baby Baird on the way. Second it'd be nice to save some dinero with Baby Baird coming. We're negotiating our way into a nicer community but its fraying me at the edges with Lyuda inquiring all the time how things are going (she's in class most of the day) and everything else going on.

Second, we're trying to buy Lyuda a car. My Jeep Islander is not a baby mobile. We're going to keep the Jeep. However, we need another one. I'm not having fun here at all. She ahs her preference. it looks like we're going to get it. We'll see. Dickering != fun.

Third, she's back in classes. *I* am effectively doing the dictionary retrievals for her. Makes getting anything else done when she's doing her English rough.

At work, I've been working on two papers and a deployment plan. One that I planned on doing profiling the cluster file systems available for AIX and linux. The second is that I am effectively, but prolly not officially, collaborating on security requirements for center wide shared file systems. The deployment plan is to cross-mount lustre between two systems. It's been the bane of my existence. Let's leave that there lest I say something in a blog that I will regret later.

I am done with _Collapse_. My BSometer went off at the end. I'll summarize in the next few days his twelve major points. I promised to do that on alt.history.future, but I got snookered the past few days at lunch into debating work related issues. It just happened again today a few minutes ago much to my annoyance.

I started the phytoremediation book. I already have two pages of notes and a page of thoughts. I have a seperate notebook for this project and I am trying to keep each area in it labeled very distinctly. If the ratio of notes and thoughts to pages read holds up, I am going to have about 35 pages of notes and 15 pages of thoughts. My intent is to base the business plan off of these notes and thoughts. We have a bsic working model for one, but it will need to be refined. Interestingly, there are two sites in the US already using phytoextraction for mining nickel. Fascinating. There are three companies that are working in this space already that would be direct competitors that I have found. Unfortunately, they look like they're better pedigreed than we will be. They already have some of the best research universities in the field sown up. I suspect that's because they were spun off from those U's, so licensing those U's genengineered plants will be difficult at best. The book notes for some applications you simply must use genengineering. I don't have the queeziness that others might so we'll see. None of the other competitors seems to have the same model for business either. We'll see if I'm approaching this sanely or not by the end. Don't worry, I'm not base everything off of one book. I have 12 in the queue and then I'll be doing interviews.

I've been also working on getting individuals stoked about the Primer from Stephenson's book. Basic idea's on how to impliment it or at least a prototype have come together. I'll have to start hacking sometime relatively soon. The funny part is that its not the hardware that's really hard. It's the adaptive and instructive story telling that is.