




With average global temperature increases of more than 5.5°F (3°C), there will be a high probability of droughts along Europe's Mediterranean coastline, the scientists report.I wonder what will happen in the Western US?
The eastern U.S. would also become prone to severe dry spells.
But with an increase of less than 3.5°F (2°C), Scholze said, "we don't see this. There might actually be floods."
In addition, the study found a high likelihood that global warming beyond 3.5 to 5.5°F (2 to 3°C) would cause a high likelihood of floods at latitudes above 50 degrees north.
The temperature rise would also cause prairies to expand northward all the way to Canada's Baffin Bay, replacing present-day forests.
Farther north, Canada's forests would push into regions now covered by brush and tundra.
[...]
Substantial warming could also have dire consequences for the Amazon rain forest.
If global warming is modest, the models are "not quite sure" what will happen in that part of South America, Scholze said. "Some say it would get drier and some say it would get wetter."
But with warming of more than 5.5°F (3°C), he says, there is a high probability that the region would get drier and face a risk of forest fires.
Steven Running, a climate researcher from the University of Montana in Missoula who was not part of Scholze's team, calls this a "double whammy." The Amazon would first endure forest-killing droughts and then see massive wildfires that turn it from rain forest to grassland.
I work in the industry. 'Course it's easy for an AC to say that, isn't it?
$52M is rather large nowadays. At least, for a 'commodity' part cluster it is. For a 'vector' supercomputer, it may be only medium sized.
You can easily break the top 50 for less than $10M. A couple thousand nodes, each with two dual-core Opteron/Xenons, InfiniBand or Myrinet (maybe 10GigE), and a compiler that optimizes better than gcc... no problem.
That being said, NERSC is a pathologically tough customer. Cray will have to work very hard to earn each and every penny they get. It may very well be a 'live or die' deal for Cray.
The Donetsk interest group is clearly the hegemonic factor in Ukraine’s newly installed coalition government under Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych. It seems quite possible that Washington and Brussels can “do business” politically and perhaps to some extent even strategically with this group. Certainly, the government’s installation marks an advance from chaos to relative stability and predictability, as well as a shift from pro-Western but ineffectual Orange power to a “two-vector” (East-West balance) stable and somewhat more competent power.
In testing the Donetsk group’s capacity for strategic partnership with the West, four assumptions now being proposed could prove irrelevant at best and counterproductive at worst. These assumptions hold that the new government marks a departure from regionally divisive politics; that the “Party of Regions has been democratized”; that the coalition is based on a common economic policy; and that it has adopted a unified foreign policy.
However, the governing coalition’s composition in parliament and government shows that the political forces that speak for the western and central regions (Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and the national-democratic wing of the Our Ukraine bloc) opposed the formation of this government. By the same token, the Donetsk team’s economic and political power in the government is wholly disproportionate to its actual influence in the country and may be misused to expand that influence and cement that team’s power. Rather than departing from regionally divisive politics, the new Donetsk hegemony can exacerbate such politics by triggering reactions from regionally based forces that feel unrepresented or short-changed.
The “democratization” of the Party of Regions may seem to be an almost obligatory case to make, but it is difficult to sustain. The present leaders’ Kuchma-era record is a non- and anti-democratic one, which helped trigger the democratic Orange Revolution. The party is strongest in electoral terms in those areas where the Soviet/Russian mentality of paternalism, collectivism, and subservience to authority is strongest; and its oligarchic leaders control the populous industrial centers in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in company-town fashion, though on a far larger scale than the classical model. Furthermore, the party’s oligarchs have brought the unreconstructed Communist Party into the government.
Scientists say the oxygen-starved "dead zone" along the Pacific Coast that is causing massive crab and fish die-offs is worse than initially thought.
Scientists say weather, not pollution, appears to be the culprit, and no relief is in sight. However, some say there is no immediate sign yet of long-term damage to the crab fishery.
Oregon State University scientists looking for weather changes that could reverse the situation aren't finding them, and they say levels of dissolved oxygen critical to marine life are the lowest since the first dead zone was identified in 2002. It has returned every year.
Strong upwelling winds pushed a low-oxygen pool of deep water toward shore, suffocating marine life, said Jane Lubchenco, a professor of marine biology at OSU.
Sponsored jointly by Russian big business and security services, a network of Greater Russia political and “civic” organizations is sprouting up in Transnistria, advocating the accession to the Russian Federation of this part of Moldova. Recent days have witnessed a wave of founding conferences of these organizations.
In the immediate term, this burst of activity is linked to preparations for the referendum that is scheduled to be held on September 17 by the Russia-installed authorities. A leading question on the ballot is asking voters whether they favor Transnistria’s entry into the Russian Federation. The “referendum” will be followed by a “presidential” election that is expected to return Igor Smirnov for a fourth term in that post. In the short-to-medium term, however, Moscow will use these organizations to provide a semblance of “democratic legitimacy” for Russian control over distant Transnistria in the form of a second Kaliningrad.
While Northrop Grumman is hoping the recent Hezbollah missile attacks on Israel will create interest in its Skyguard chemically powered high-energy laser weapon system either abroad or for American homeland security, it's clear that the U.S. Army wants to wait for a more tactical and mobile system.
While more mobile and cheaper than earlier planned high-energy laser (HEL) proposals, Skyguard lacks the mobility of solid-state high energy systems the Army would rather have, according to Northrop and Army officials.
A demonstrator for such a system probably won't be ready until the mid part of the coming decade.
Army officials have made their need for a very mobile system known this year in congressional testimony. More telling, the service has no current funding plans for anything like a Skyguard system.
Israel and the United States were working on a mobile tactical high energy laser (MTHEL) until last year, but the joint program fell apart partly because Israel was ready to move forward while the Army wanted a more tactical system.
"The U.S. Army wanted something that was more mobile," said Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute.
It should be clear that the physical environment of nothern North America has changed dramatically in the past 20,000 years. This environment was (and still is) a complicated and intricate system, powered by the sun and having land, ice, freshwater, salt water and atmosphere at its compnonents. Even if it were lifeless, it would still be duynamic; the compononents would continue to interact with one another. One of the most interesting aspects of this never ending change from the ecological point of view is that, over the time interval we are considering (and probably for the whole of the earth's history), physical conditions on this continent (and everywhere else) have never repeated themselves.
At no time has there been a return to "things as they were."
There is a wealth of evidence, however, shwoing that climatic change is never ending. Even if major climatic "steps" are compartively quick, it is almost certain that the climate in the intervals between steps undergoes continual lesser changes. In the light of present knowledge, therefore, Davis' view, that disequilibrium in ecological communities is much commoner than equilibirum, is more acceptable.
It should lead, in time, to a much needed change in popular thought. The notion espoused by so many nonprofessional ecologists - that the living world is "marvelously" and "delicately" attuned to its environment - is not so much a scientifically reasonable theory as a mystically satisifying dogma. Its abandonment might lead to a useful fresh start in environmental politics."
Some notes:
State Name: Population: Origin[0]:
California 36,132,147 A
Texas 22,859,968 A
Mexico[1] 22,728,411 M
New York 19,254,630 A
Florida 17,789,864 A
Illinios 12,763,371 A
Ontario 12,541,400 C
Pennsylvania 12,429,616 A
Ohio 11,464,042 A
Michigan 10,120,860 A
Georgia 9,072,576 A
New Jersey 8,717,925 A
North Carolina 8,683,242 A
Quebec 7,598,100 C
Virginia 7,567,465 A
Veracruz 7,110,214 M
Jalisco 6,752,113 M
Massachusetts 6,398,743 A
Washington 6,287,759 A
Indiana 6,271,973 A
Tennessee 5,962,959 A
Arizona 5,939,292 A
Missouri 5,800,310 A
Maryland 5,600,388 A
Wisconsin 5,536,201 A
Puebla 5,383,133 M
Minnesota 5,132,799 A
Colorado 4,665,177 A
Alabama 4,557,808 A
Lousiana 4,523,628 A
Chiapas 4,293,459 M
South Carolina 4,255,083 A
British Columbia 4,254,500 C
Nuevo Leon 4,199,292 M
Kentucky 4,173,405 A
Michoacan 3,966,073 M
Puerto Rico 3,916,632 A
Oregon 3,641,056 A
Oklahoma 3,547,884 A
Connecticut 3,510,297 A
Oaxaca 3,506,821 M
Baja California[2] 3,356,639 M
Alberta 3,256,800 C
Chihuahua 3,241,444 M
Guerrero 3,115,202 M
Tamaulipas 3,024,238 M
Iowa 2,966,334 A
Mississippi 2,921,088 A
Arkansas 2,779,154 A
Kansas 2,744,687 A
Sinaloa 2,608,442 M
Utah 2,469,585 A
Nevada 2,414,807 A
San Luis Potosi 2,410,414 M
Hidalgo 2,345,514 M
Tabasco 1,989,969 M
New Mexico 1,928,384 A
Yucatan 1,818,948 M
West Virginia 1,816,856 A
Nebraska 1,758,787 A
Morelos 1,612,899 M
Querétaro 1,598,139 M
Durango 1,509,117 M
Idaho 1,429,096 A
Zacatecas 1,367,692 M
Maine 1,321,505 A
New Hampshire 1,309,940 A
Hawaii 1,275,194 A
Manitoba 1,177,600 C
Quintana Roo 1,135,309 M
Rhode Island 1,076,189 A
Tlaxcala 1,068,207 M
Aguascalientes 1,065,416 M
Saskatchewan 994,100 C
Nayarit 949,684 M
Nova Scotia 937,900 C
Montana 935,670 A
Delaware 843,524 A
South Dakota 775,933 A
Campeche 754,730 M
New Brunswick 752,000 C
Alaska 663,661 A
North Dakota 636,677 A
Vermont 623,050 A
Colima 567,996 M
Newfoundland and Labrador 516,000 C
Wyoming 509,294 A
Prince Edward Island 138,100 C
Northwest Territories 43,000 C
Yukon 31,000 C
Nunavut 30,000 C
0. A = American, C = Canadian, M = Mexican.
1. Combined Mexico and Federal District
2. Combined Baja California and Baja California Sur
A combined Martimes would have a population of 2,344,000
and put it in the puncing weight of Utah politically.
A combined Yucatan Pennisula (Compeche, Quintana Roo, and
Yucatan ) would have the population of 3,708,987 and a
punching weight equivalent of Oregon or the state of
Puerto Rico.
The Late Devonian Event is particuarly controversial at present. Indeed, one evolutionary biologist has bemoaned, "The Late Devonian extinction is one where not even the major facts are ageed on yet" (Van Valen 1984).
Late in June, speaking at the Farnborough aerospace show, the Roskosmos leadership suddenly announced that they were suspending the tender [for the Kliper] and would instead adopt a multi-stage program of creating a space transport vehicle.
Noel Maurer and I had a discussion some time back about the Ukrainian Gas war as an example of Russian 21st Century Imperialism. Noel felt that it was incompetent imperialism. Badly handled and an extreme example of stupidity in motion. Most people were aware of the Gas War. It was in the news and on everyone's mind. The drama was rather extreme. Little new democracy facing down the big, bad Russians in the depths of winter and made the Russians look stupid. A deal was struck with the support of the EU and US. The world's attention turned elsewhere. The Russians, however, merely waited for that to happen. This is a pretty common pattern for the Russians as of this moment. Right now, unbeknownst to most people, the Russians are out trying to eat the smaller fish of the xUSSR republics.
For one, the Gas War isn't over. The Russians have been putting the full court press on the Ukrainians when everyone else was looking at Iran, Isreal and elsewhere. The Russians bought up the rights to the Turkmen gas that the Ukrainians thought they could mix with the Russian gas to make sure it didn't destroy their economy through price shocks. The Russians then turned around and started talking about jacking up the price of gas even past the amount they asked for during the lowest points of the Gas War. Then they demanded that the Ukrainians hand over their transit pipes that Naftogas owns. They did during the Gas War and now they're doing it again. This time, with the chaos in Ukraine's political sphere, it is looking likely that the Russians will win out. First it will be the pipes. There will be temporary breaks in the gas prices as 'concessions' and then the Russians are likely to jack the price to whatever they feel like to demand whatever they want. Putin has set a precedent.
The Russians haven't just been picking on the Ukrainians about this. The Russians are even trying to muscle the Armenians, Moldovans, and Belarusians as well. The Moldovans are getting beaten up with respect to gas over the Transdniestr region where Russian troops are acting as 'peace keepers'. Lukashenka might be as crazy as a bed bug, but he has long sought a Soviet style union with the Russians. That makes you wonder why the Russians would want to make threats to him, right? After all, he is in their pocket, right? Well, the Russians want ownership of the pipeline through Belarus as well and are making the same threats as they are to the Ukrainians: fork it over and face massive price hikes. AKA Do as we say or we destroy your economy.
Gas isn't the only place the Russians are beating up old Soviet Republics. Georgia and Moldova are getting their economics kidney kicked because Russian has implemented a ban on all of their wines. Georgia and Moldova's vineyards are one of their very important pillars of their respective economies. Then Russia, under the auspices of quality control, has banned their very important products. Given a lot of the problems with Georgian wines that would have been plausible and even understandable. However, Putin has been coming out to say that he would lift the bans if Russian companies were allowed to take over those industries. hrm. Sounds familiar.
It's obvious that the xUSSR republics, especially the European ones, are the small fish in the picture, about to be eaten. The amusing thing is that while the Russians are acting the shark with respect to the smaller countries, they are in fact, the fish in the middle. The Chinese are working on eating Russia.
First on the list of examples is the forestry deal that I posted about just yesterday. The Chinese are looking to get to exploit the forestry resources of Siberia almost exclusively. First it will be a pilot project and then, probably, on a huge scale. The second point was the energy deal being worked out between Russia and China. Russia might think that it could do an OPEC on China, but the relative strengths are astounding and only going to get worse. The reason? Demographics.
The third, very crucial point is the difference in demographics: the Russians are in a population decline. Russians have a TFR of 1.28, where in a healthy first world country it takes a little better than 2.1 or 2.2 to just keep a stable population. Additionally, they also have a rapidly shrinking population through death .37% annually, and that figure is getting worse. While the Chinese are 1.3 billion people with an annual growth rate of .59% and a TFR that is below replacement, but not as vastly so as the Russians: 1.73. The Chinese are actually emigrating out of China and depress that growth a nontrivial amount. Some of them are going to Russia.
Here and here have some interesting, if a little dated stats on Chinese immigration into Siberia. As the Russian needs for workers increases, their alienation of the xUSSR republics and the EU gets worse, and their own population declines, they are going to have to get workers from somewhere. The Chinese seem very likely as the source. Since the Russians are not at all friendly to absorbing other nonSlavs into being Russian culturally, the Chinese that do come will remain culturally self identifying as such.
The Chinese have a almost cultural concept that the PRC - or whatever form of government that governs 'China' - has the right to rule wherever there are Chinese people. Singapore has long promoted that it is a part of the people, but separate politically. Now, China doesn't actively promote the idea of annexation of these areas, but it does try to influence these areas as much as possible.
Now, if the Russians should get a leader that suddenly goes through a intense nationalist phase, there will be problems. The Russians really don't like the Chinese on the personal or culture level. If China starts to 'own' too many parts of Russia or there are too many Chinese people in Russia - a la like how many perceive the Mexicans in the US - you might see a rather bad backlash. The first would be in the form of nationalizations of Chinese assets. Second would be in the form of considering expulsions of Chinese from Siberia and the rest of Russia. This would be a mistake.
The Chinese government barring some calamity would intervene. Russia would be in a world of hurt. Consider the predictions of an 85 million-person population come true circa 2050 for Russia, and the massively bigger population for China (18x? 20x?). Then consider the massively growing wealth of China vs. Russia. If these trends continue, we are going to see a massive stomp at best. It would turn painful for China, but not as badly as it would be for Russia. Russia, as we have known it, would pass. It would all depend on the distribution of population in Russia and if anyone comes to their rescue. Somehow, I doubt many nations would leap to its aid given the trend in alienation that it is going down.
Unfortunately, I can all too well see a xenophobic Russian leader lashing out at the Chinese sometime after 2020. I can all too well see the end result too. Too bad that Russia is all too bent on trying to push around or eat the smaller fish instead of considering its future it seems to have selected. Too bad that they seem to have turned away from the once promising prospects of joining the West, NATO, and European Union. Too bad their cultural arrogance, one that rivals or perhaps even surpassing that of my own American culture, is preventing them from joining with their other cousins in the bright future of the EU. Too bad that their own self image is so such contradictory opposition to the reality.
Too bad that the Russians didn't embrace that European future. Instead, they have embraced a Eurasian one. For that reason, I weep for Mother Russia. I weep for the Great Russians.
Putin! Oh Putin! What have you done?
Russia and China discussed a long-term lease of one million hectares of Siberian forests as "a pilot project on joint use of forest resources," the Russian Natural Resources Ministry press service said in a statement on July 26. The project was considered at a meeting in Moscow between Boris Bolshakov, deputy head of the Russian Federal Forestry Agency (Rosleskhoz), and Li Yuchai, deputy head of China's State Forestry Administration.
Nezavisimaya gazeta commented that the worst fears of Russia's left radicals over Chinese expansion in Russia appear to have come true. This "pilot project" could well be followed by other similar ventures, the daily wrote. The paper quoted Vasily Sadliy, head of the forestry department of Irkutsk region, as saying that Irkutsk authorities were negotiating forestry joint ventures with China (Nezavisimaya gazeta, July 28).
The project is set to become a no-win situation for Russia, as there is hardly any point in swapping our pristine taiga for paper dollars or yuans, Komsomolskaya pravda commented. The would-be joint venture is almost certain to employ Chinese nationals, who are very unlikely to leave Siberia voluntarily, even after the expiration of the forest lease, the daily wrote (Komsomolskaya pravda, July 28).
The US Missile Defence Agency (MDA) has identified the Caucasus region as one possible location for placing mobile sensors for its ballistic missile defence system.
Rick Lehner, an MDA spokesman, told Jane's the region would be a "good location for a small X-band radar to provide tracking and discrimination of missiles launched from Iran.
"Our job is to put forth optimum locations for radars so that we can make missile defence as effective as possible," Lehner said. "That does not mean radars or other equipment will be placed in those locations; it's just that, in our opinion, it's the best location. MDA doesn't make the decision on locations, especially those outside the US."
The journey of Teilhardina is one we would do well to consider. We are now injecting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere at about the same rate at which it was released 55 million years ago. The Paleocene-Eocene boundary may offer some clues to how the world's ecosystem may respond. Some species may become extinct--particularly marine species that won't be able to cope with the acidity of the oceans. Others will spread. Teilhardina covered 20,000 kilometers in less than 25,000 years. That's hardly supersonic. In fact, it matches the rate of dispersal scientists observe in mammals today--about a kilometer a year. But Teilhardina spread at this rate year in and year out, and before too long (geologically speaking) it had circled the globe. If we ever do figure out a way to cut off our carbon emissions, the carbon we've already put in the atmosphere may last for a long time. In the Eocene, the planet took 70,000 years to recover. But the ecological changes were far more durable. Primates managed to stick around in North America for about 20 million years, until the climate had cooled too far to support the forests they depended on. The Earth's planet has continued to cool and carbon dioxide levels have continued to drop. That means that the current climate change will not be a perfect replay of the crisis 55 million years ago. But it does serve as an example of how a pulse of global warming can do some remarkable things, such as putting primates in Wyoming for 20 million years.
Lockheed Martin's twin-engine, 90-ft. wingspan UAV has performed two flights below 15,000 ft. However, the tail-less "Horton" flying wing design -- similar to that of the B-2. Flight testing of the so-called Polecat is expected to reach increasingly higher altitudes this summer.
The company designed the single prototype for about $27 million and officials say it has not led to a production vehicle.
[...]
The UAV can carry 1,000 lbs. of weapons or sensors in a bay on the underbelly of the aircraft. Gross takeoff weight is 9,000 lbs.
I really loved this one, but it had too much kick for my wife. My daughter would probably try it, get pissed off, red faced, and then want more. I'd rather not risk it though. This one has some kick with the sweet and spicy.
1 large mango, diced
1 tomatio, diced
1/4 habenaro, finely minced
1/4 large yellow onion
ginger, garlic, oregano to taste.
First dice the mango. If it's as ripe as it should be it will be messy and juicy. This is a feature, not a bug here. Don't lose the juice! Place in a large bowl. Dice the tomatio and onion. Mix with the mango. Add spices. Very finely mince the habenaro last and add. Place over a very low heat for about 10 minutes. Stir regularly. Let sit for another ten minutes and serve.
Dunbar said climate experts were predicting a doubling of the levels of carbon dioxide by 2100, "but it actually looks like it's going to come sooner unfortunately."










No, that's not a quote from some book. It's a rememberance of the discussion last night with my wife about the discussion with the architects. Or at least a part of it. The amusing part at least. The discussion in general was pretty straight forward. The pricing was a little higher than expected with the architects, but I at least really liked them. We'll see. I have more interviews to do.
"So I was talking to two guys. They were very slickly dressed and obviously sharp. One was a little older - I would guess late middle age, maybe late 50s - and the other was younger. I would palce him around his mid forties. They gave me their resumes."
I handed the the two resumes to Lyuda. She started studying them intensely and curiously. She hasn't seen that many American resumes. In some palces she really doesn't understand them. Her reaction to some of it is interesting. One of the things that made it interesting was that she completely missed. There was one in particular on the older gentleman's resume that I drew her attention to.
"See the two years in the 1960s that [the older guy] has that says he was in the US Navy? It says 'Underwater Demolition Team' was his specialty."
An "Okaaaay..." accompanied by an uncomprehending look.
"I think that means he was a SEAL or something like it."
Still a blank look. I thought fast. How to make her comprehend? There's a cultural and knowledge difference here. Ah, I know...
"Spetznaz. He was Spetznaz."
Her eyes went wide.