Climate Change: Theory vs Reality

ABSTRACT:

Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections
Stefan Rahmstorf,1 Anny Cazenave,2 John A. Church,3 James E. Hansen,4 Ralph F. Keeling,5 David E. Parker,6 Richard C. J. Somerville5

We present recent observed climate trends for carbon dioxide concentration, global mean air temperature, and global sea level, and we compare these trends to previous model projections as summarized in the 2001 assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC scenarios and projections start in the year 1990, which is also the base year of the Kyoto protocol, in which almost all industrialized nations accepted a binding commitment to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The data available for the period since 1990 raise concerns that the climate system, in particular sea level, may be responding more quickly to climate change than our current generation of models indicates.

1 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14482 Potsdam, Germany.
2 Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales, 31400 Toulouse, France.
3 Marine and Atmospheric Research and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Hobart Tasmania, 7001, Australia.
4 NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY 10025, USA.
5 Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
6 Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK.

Let's repeat this:

The data available for the period since 1990 raise concerns that the climate system, in particular sea level, may be responding more quickly to climate change than our current generation of models indicates.

Oh. Joy.

Melting of Greenland Likely to Impact Atlantic Currents

According to a revision article published in Science, ocean circulation during the last ice age was very different to present day circulation. The formation of deep water currents in the North Atlantic was much weaker and the flow of warm water from the Gulf Stream decreased. This led to a cooling of the northern hemisphere and contributed to the formation of the great ice caps which covered North America, Scandinavia and Europe.

In a similar study, the marine sediments of the North Atlantic were observed in order to document the sequence of events that led to that disturbance. The melting caused a significant decrease in the Gulf Stream, which transports warm water from the Gulf of Mexico to the North. This submerged the region of the North Atlantic into a period of glacial cold which lasted at least 1,200 years.

Nevertheless, the slowing down of the ocean circulation in the North Atlantic began about 700 to 1,200 years before this great melting of the ice caps and the subsequent flow of fresh water into the ocean took place. The very first stage of this change coincided with brief and isolated periods of melting of the small British Ice Sheet (BIS). The authors of the study have come to this conclusion from an observation of the fine layers of sediment (formed by grains of quartz) coming from successive waves of icebergs which, when they melted dumped their load of sediments onto the sea bed. These icebergs came from the edges of the ice which surround and stabilised the BIS.

These results show that the disturbances caused by melting may in turn cause substantial changes in ocean circulation without the need for a catastrophic dumping of fresh water. This seems to indicate that an acceleration in the melting of the Greenland ice cap, could, in fact, play a key role in the future stability of ocean circulation and climate change in the whole North Atlantic region.

Some of this was already known. That the British Icecap had this effect is interesting. It might suggest postponing buying lots in Greenland. It might get mighty cold in the North Atlantic for a while while the rest of the world roasts.

Ah, the chaotic climate! Never a more fickle mistress!

The Yushchenko Comeback?

Once seen as a lame duck, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko now is out-maneuvering the Anti-Crisis coalition (ACC) and the government of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych. During the last week the president has reappointed Syatoslav Piskun as prosecutor, removed the deputy head of the Constitutional Court and a second member of the Court by presidential decree, and appointed a loyalist, Stepan Havrysh, to the Court. He also issued a decree rescheduling early parliamentary elections from May 27 to June 24 (see EDM, May 3).

FWIW, Yanukovich agreed to the elections today always. The article above notes that the only nation that has been actively 'helping' in the crisis has been Russia and it is against the polling taking place. It has been vocal about this and some Russian commentators have been talking about annexing Ukraine. I can't help think that this has backfired again on Russia's local allies.

Interesting times.

The Debate Last Night

I haven't finished watching it. I have it tivoed and I am half way through. I'll go backa nd watch it all again with my wife. Two impressions I couldn't shake nor put a finger on why I had them:

Huckabee reminded me of Nixon and Gilmore of Lyndon B Johnson.

I am not sure why.


Candidates have started taking negative points, but none came across with positive ones so far. I wish I'd not missed the Demobrat debate so I could compare it to the Repugnant one.

Older. Uglier, Cuter, and Always Stunningly Beautiful

This is a little dated, but not one most of you have seen. More photos in the near future.

Introducing the Lowery's!

Jason has been a friend for a long time. He's exceedingly smart and a fun guy. He was part of the crew that I hung out with in SoNM: if you want to talk rockets, boomski stuff, and the like he's da guy. I've met Jason's wife Tracy once and she was a very sweet woman. I've yet to meet little Logan. He and his lovely wife have set up a blog about their kidlet, life, etc. I'm adding them to the blogroll and introducing them to you all.

Oz's Largest Dino

"They are titanosaurs, which are plant-eating dinosaurs with extremely long necks and tails, massive bodies and elephant-like legs," Queensland state's Arts Minister Rod Welford said.

He said titanosaurs had also been found in South America and North Africa, which along with Australia once formed the super-continent Gondwana.

kewl. Also interesting because if the dicynodont fossil remains Cretaceous (ie not reworked), then we have a very different and interesting - and not so isolated - ecology in Gondwana than in Laurasia (ie the current NorAm). Someone needs to run through and find a very good terrestrial KT boundary in Gondwana.

USAFs New Bomber

The U.S. Air Force's long-range strike aircraft set to be deployed by 2018 will be subsonic and manned, said Brig. Gen. Mark Matthews, director of plans and programs, headquarters, Air Combat Command, Langley Air Force Base, Va.

There's talk it'll carry a HEL too. AvWeek also has a defense blog and Bill Sweetman has a post about this. Please treat that post with salt grains. He's made more than a few claims on Aurora, etc. that have been questionable.

Supercontinents Might Be Their Own Worst Enemy

Earth's mega-volcanic eruptions may be the direct result of mega continents getting in the way.

A new computer simulation that looks at how heat moves out from the center of our planet confirms the idea that the supercontinent Pangea could have acted like a thermal dam to that heat flow.

Might be a bit misplaced chronologically, but the idea has merit for the Permian and Siberian Traps. that means if Dr Scotese is correct for the future layout of the world, expect that there will be some serious mass extinctions around the continent's breakup.

Hayabusa Image

Another Bright Thing from Russia

Information on the ownership of Russian sites in the coming months may be totally secret. The most popular international blast zone. Com has long earned the willingness of owners to maintain Internet sites incognito. Under the Personal Data, which entered into force on January 30, 2007, the written consent of every person to the inclusion of personal data in public facilities. Some organizations have been suspended for bringing his public bases in line with the law until January 2008 or January 2010. According to the Russian Research Institute of public networks (RosNIIROS, Focal Point domain. Ru), in late 2006. In Runete there were more than 700,000 sites belonging to nearly 329,000 owners.

Oy.

Carnegie Mellon's UGV Prototype

At What Point is Something Like This an Act of War?

In a move potentially repeatable against other countries, top-level Russian authorities are sabotaging the Estonian state’s web servers since April 27. According to Justice Minister Rein Lang and Foreign Affairs Minister Urmas Paet, the cyber attacks on April 29 and 30 were traced to IP addresses in Moscow owned by the Russian presidential administration and government (Estonian TV, Eesti Paevaleht, April 30, May 1). The attacks have perturbed the entire information network of Estonia’s state administrations, government and presidency. The effects are particularly disruptive on a country like Estonia, a European leader regarding the generalization of electronic governance.

Makes you wonder what is the threshold of info warfare being turned into the bullet slinging kind. An interesting theoretical question taht goes beyond teh Russian-Estonian goofiness.

And You Thought the 9/11 Whack-jobs Were Bad

This seems to be their inbred wannabe cousin.

I live less than a mile crow distance from the collapsed section. I have worked out in places where bombs and missiles go off on a regular basis. I would have frakkin heard that and not slept through it, damnit.

That AntiRussia Space Conspiracy

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Sorry had to get that in first. Here's a proposed reason why the NASA rebuffed Russia about cooperating in space.

Mankind's second race for the moon took on a distinctly Cold War feel yesterday when the Russian space agency accused its old rival Nasa of rejecting a proposal for joint lunar exploration.

The claim comes amid suspicion in Moscow that the United States is seeking to deny Russia access to an isotope in abundance under the moon's surface that many believe could replace fossil fuels and even end the threat of global warming.

[...]

While the Americans have either been coy or dismissive on the subject, Russia openly says the main purpose of its lunar programme is the industrial extraction of helium-3.

Dismissed by critics as a 21st-century equivalent of the medieval alchemist's fruitless quest to turn lead into gold, some scientists say helium-3 could be the answer to the world's energy woes.

A non-radioactive isotope of helium, helium-3 is a proven and potent fuel for nuclear fusion - so potent that just six metric tons would supply Britain with enough energy for a year.

As helium-3 is non-polluting and is so effective in such tiny quantities, many countries are taking it very seriously. Germany, India and China, which will launch a lunar probe to research extraction techniques in September, are all studying ways to mine the isotope.

[...]

The United States has appeared much more cautious, not least because scientists are yet to discover the secrets of large scale nuclear fusion. Commercial fusion reactors look unlikely to come on line before the second half of this century.

But many officials in Moscow's space programme believe Washington's lunar agenda is driven by a desire to monopolise helium-3 mining. They allege that President Bush has moved helium-3 experts into key positions on Nasa's advisory council.

The plot, says Erik Galimov, an academic with the Russian Academy of Sciences, would "enable the US to establish its control of the energy market 20 years from now and put the rest of the world on its knees as hydrocarbons run out."

First off, projected are we?

Second, BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Third, okay, consider the source.

ahem. *wipes tears*

Twisted Path

GNXP Asks: Whither the UK?

I'd be curious to see what an Brits think.

Hydrogen at the Corner Gas Station?

This takes in Natural Gas and pumps out hydrogen.

Interesting, but not as nice as if you could extract it from water.

I don't see what they do with the carbon though...

Two Bills on Puerto Rico’s Status Reflect Split on Island Itself

The oft-debated but still unsettled question of the status of Puerto Rico — a United States possession for more than a century and a commonwealth for 55 years — has returned to Washington, with two pieces of legislation aimed at resolving the longstanding issue.

For Puerto Ricans, the debate is nothing less than a referendum on the identity of their homeland, with the main battle line drawn between those who want to keep the Caribbean island’s commonwealth status and those who favor outright statehood.

We'll see if the bills make it out of committee. I'm hoping for HR 900, personally. It would end the standoff one way or another, IMO. Finally.

*crossed fingers*

Preparations Accelerate For Planetary Probes

Spacecraft and launch vehicle processing at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral are building to a peak for two planned summer launches.

On June 30, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory Dawn spacecraft is set to journey to the asteroid Vesta and dwarf planet Ceres, and on Aug. 3 the JPL Phoenix lander is scheduled to head toward Mars.

Phoenix is to arrive at Kennedy next week from Lockheed Martin near Denver. The spacecraft will begin a final series of tests, but unlike previous Mars landers, it will already be largely integrated inside its aeroshell, with just the bottom of the vehicle and its landing gear visible.

Phoenix is not planned to come out until moments before touchdown on Mars in May 2008. But launch site technicians will do final tests on the vehicle with it inside the shell and also attach its Mars atmospheric entry heat shield. Phoenix must launch by Aug. 25.

Meanwhile, the Dawn spacecraft, built by Orbital Sciences, is already well into final assembly at the Astrotech commercial processing facilities near the Cape. Its Delta II Heavy booster is also being erected on Launch Complex 17B. Final Dawn instrument tests are planned this week, and solar arrays spanning 65 feet are to be installed May 21-24. The arrays will power Dawn's Ion propulsion system to power the spacecraft into orbit around Vesta in October 2011 and then out of orbit in 2012 toward Ceres, a proto-planet that Dawn will also orbit starting in 2015. Dawn must launch by July 19.

Via AvWeek.