Stealth Saga #12: Northrop Does a Victory Lap

India has built an RCS range for its future aviation development.

The Long Range Strike Bomber contract was awarded to Northrop Grumman.  Very little information was shared with the public about the aircraft.  It is reported to be $511M per plane in 2010 dollars and $564M in 2016 dollars.  There are lots of rumors as to what happened.  First is that NG took a very conservative approach to the project to make sure they would not go over on the budget.  Lockheed/Boeing (BoLock) supposedly went heavy on the new tech.  They supposedly kept within the budget requirements, but it might have alarmed the air force for the potential for cost overruns.  The BoLock design was said to be much faster, but the Northrop bird was far stealthier.  Rumors are also the renderings of the NG bird are fairly accurate, though some are saying it looks more like a flying dorito like the A-12 was than the cranked kite.  Many are also attributing NG's work on the still classified RQ-180.  We are expecting a protest from BoLock.  Northrop has launched a fluffy website about the bomber.

Minor update:  Boeing will 'vigorously debate' whether or not to protest the award and will have a decision within two weeks.

Persian Gulf may Experience Temperatures too High for Human Life on Regular Basis due to Climate Change

Within this century, parts of the Persian Gulf region could be hit with unprecedented events of deadly heat as a result of climate change, according to a study of high-resolution climate models.

The research reveals details of a business-as-usual scenario for greenhouse gas emissions, but also shows that curbing emissions could forestall these deadly temperature extremes.

The study, published today in the journal Nature Climate Change, was carried out by Elfatih Eltahir, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at MIT, and Jeremy Pal PhD '01 at Loyola Marymount University. They conclude that conditions in the Persian Gulf region, including its shallow water and intense sun, make it "a specific regional hotspot where climate change, in absence of significant mitigation, is likely to severely impact human habitability in the future."

Running high-resolution versions of standard climate models, Eltahir and Pal found that many major cities in the region could exceed a tipping point for human survival, even in shaded and well-ventilated spaces. Eltahir says this threshold "has, as far as we know ... never been reported for any location on Earth."

That tipping point involves a measurement called the "wet-bulb temperature" that combines temperature and humidity, reflecting conditions the human body could maintain without artificial cooling. That threshold for survival for more than six unprotected hours is 35 degrees Celsius, or about 95 degrees Fahrenheit, according to recently published research. (The equivalent number in the National Weather Service's more commonly used "heat index" would be about 165 F.)

This limit was almost reached this summer, at the end of an extreme, weeklong heat wave in the region: On July 31, the wet-bulb temperature in Bandahr Mashrahr, Iran, hit 34.6 C -- just a fraction below the threshold, for an hour or less.

But the severe danger to human health and life occurs when such temperatures are sustained for several hours, Eltahir says -- which the models show would occur several times in a 30-year period toward the end of the century under the business-as-usual scenario used as a benchmark by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The Persian Gulf region is especially vulnerable, the researchers say, because of a combination of low elevations, clear sky, water body that increases heat absorption, and the shallowness of the Persian Gulf itself, which produces high water temperatures that lead to strong evaporation and very high humidity.

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A Method for Classifying and Evaluating Biologically Altered Volcanic Rocks on Mars

A Hierarchical System for Evaluating the Biogenicity of Metavolcanic- and Ultramafic-Hosted Microalteration Textures in the Search for Extraterrestrial Life

Authors:

McLoughlin et al

Abstract:

The low-temperature alteration of submarine volcanic glasses has been argued to involve the activity of microorganisms, and analogous fluid-rock-microbial-mediated alteration has also been postulated on Mars. However, establishing the extent to which microbes are involved in volcanic glass alteration has proven to be difficult, and the reliability of resulting textural biosignatures is debated, particularly in the early rock record. We therefore propose a hierarchical scheme to evaluate the biogenicity of candidate textural biosignatures found in altered terrestrial and extraterrestrial basaltic glasses and serpentinized ultramafic rocks.

The hierarchical scheme is formulated to give increasing confidence of a biogenic origin and involves (i) investigation of the textural context and syngenicity of the candidate biosignature; (ii) characterization of the morphology and size range of the microtextures; (iii) mapping of the geological and physicochemical variables controlling the occurrence and preservation of the microtextures; (iv) in situ investigation of chemical signatures that are syngenetic to the microtexture; and (v) identification of growth patterns suggestive of biological behavior and redox variations in the host minerals. The scheme results in five categories of candidate biosignature as follows: Category 1 indicates preservation of very weak evidence for biogenicity, Categories 2 through 4 indicate evidence for increasing confidence of a biogenic origin, and Category 5 indicates that biogenic origin is most likely.

We apply this hierarchical approach to examine the evidence for a biogenic origin of several examples, including candidate bacterial encrustations in altered pillow lavas, granular and tubular microtextures in volcanic glass from the subseafloor and a Phanerozoic ophiolite, mineralized microtextures in Archean metavolcanic glass, and alteration textures in olivines of the martian meteorite Yamato 000593. The aim of this hierarchical approach is to provide a framework for identifying robust biosignatures of microbial life in the altered oceanic crust on Earth, and in extraterrestrial altered mafic-ultramafic rocks, particularly on Mars.

Russian Submarines, Intel Ships Operating Near Undersea Internet Cables, Worry Pentagon

Russian submarines and spy ships are aggressively operating near the vital undersea cables that carry almost all global Internet communications, raising concerns among some American military and intelligence officials that the Russians might be planning to attack those lines in times of tension or conflict.

The issue goes beyond old worries during the Cold War that the Russians would tap into the cables — a task American intelligence agencies also mastered decades ago. The alarm today is deeper: The ultimate Russian hack on the United States could involve severing the fiber-optic cables at some of their hardest-to-access locations to halt the instant communications on which the West’s governments, economies and citizens have grown dependent.

While there is no evidence yet of any cable cutting, the concern is part of a growing wariness among senior American and allied military and intelligence officials over the accelerated activity by Russian armed forces around the globe. At the same time, the internal debate in Washington illustrates how the United States is increasingly viewing every Russian move through a lens of deep distrust, reminiscent of relations during the Cold War.

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British Procuring 4 new Successor Class Ballistic Missile Submarines

The British government has decided to replace the Royal Navy’s four Vanguard-class ballistic nuclear missile submarines (SSBN) with new boats on a one-for-one basis.

After years of indecision, caused largely by global economic crash-induced fiscal austerity, ministers have effectively acknowledged that reducing the SSBN force to three submarines would signal the end of a half century of continuous U.K. sea-based deterrence.

Prime minister David Cameron is expected to seek parliamentary approval next year to start building the four Vanguard replacement or “Successor” submarines, with the first of the 16,000-ton boats due to enter service in 2028.

Although the opposition Labour Party’s new hard left leader, Jeremy Corbyn, is a vociferous opponent of nuclear weapons, the ruling Conservatives enjoy a 12-strong majority in the House of Commons and a ‘yes’ vote is almost guaranteed.

Both Cameron and his defense secretary, Michael Fallon, have now spoken publicly about the decision to retain four SSBNs, with the latter setting out the government’s position most explicitly at an industry briefing last week.

“Cold War certainties have been replaced by an unpredictable new nuclear age defined by weapons proliferation, more nuclear states, and rogue nations wanting nuclear weapons and the technology to develop them,” Fallon said.

He pointed out that an “expansionist” and “revanchist” Russia was commissioning a new class of eight SSBNs, and that North Korea was conducting its own nuclear and ballistic missile tests.

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US Air Force's Long Range Strike Bomber Will be Made by Northrop Grumman

Northrop Grumman has won the contract to build the US Air Force’s next-generation Long Range Strike Bomber (LRS-B), an industry-shaping deal that breathes new life into the world's sixth-largest defense company.

After US financial markets closed Tuesday evening, Defense Secretary Ash Carter and Air Force leadership announced that Northrop beat out the team of Boeing and Lockheed Martin for the contract, which is expected to top $55 billion over the life of the program. It's the largest military aircraft deal since Lockheed Martin won the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) more than a decade ago.

Northrop now has the Pentagon's blessing to build a new fleet of aircraft to replace the Air Force’s aging B-52s and B-1s. As builder of the B-2 stealth bomber, Northrop beat out a joint Lockheed Martin-Boeing team in a closely watched competition that has lasted months longer than anticipated.

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Is This a Picture of a new Chinese Strike Fighter Similar to the Su-34?

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UPDATE (10/28/15): Its fake.

A New Picture of Chinese First Indigenous Aircraft Carrier

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Severe Selenium Depletion Detected During Ordovician, Devonian and Triassic Mass Extinctions

Severe Selenium depletion in the Phanerozoic oceans as a factor in three global mass extinction events

Authors:

Long et al

Abstract:

Selenium (Se) is one of the key trace elements required by all animal and most plant life, and Se deficiencies in the food chain cause pathologies or death. Here we show from new geochemical analyses of trace elements in Phanerozoic marine pyrite that sustained periods of severe Se depletion in the past oceans correlate closely with three major mass extinction events, at the end of the Ordovician, Devonian and Triassic periods. These represent periods of Se depletion > 1.5-2 orders of magnitude lower than current ocean abundances, being within the range to cause severe pathological damage in extant Se-reliant organisms. Se depletion may have been one of several factors in these complex extinction scenarios. Recovery from the depletion/extinction events is likely part of a natural marine cycle, although rapid rises in global oxygen from sudden major increases in marine productivity and plant biomass after each extinction event may also have played a crucial role.

Evidence of a Neandertal-Sabre Tooth Tiger (Homotherium) Battle From Pleistocene Quaternary Schöningen, Germany?

The European saber-toothed cat (Homotherium latidens) found in the “Spear Horizon” at Schöningen (Germany)

Authors:

Serangeli et al

Abstract:

The 300,000 year old Lower Paleolithic site Schöningen 13 II-4 became world famous with the discovery of the oldest well-preserved and complete wooden spears. Through ongoing excavations, new archaeological discoveries of scientific importance are still being made from the same archaeological layer where the spears were found. In this context, remains of a rare carnivore species, the European saber-toothed cat (Homotherium latidens), were recovered. Here we present five teeth and one humerus fragment that are unambiguously from two individual saber-toothed cats. The humerus is a unique specimen; it shows evidence of hominin impacts and use as a percussor.

The Homotherium remains from Schöningen are the best documented finds of this species in an archaeological setting and they are amongst the youngest specimens of Homotherium in Europe. The presence of this species as a carnivore competitor would certainly have impacted the lives of late Middle Pleistocene hominins. The discovery illustrates the possible day-to-day challenges that the Schöningen hominins would have faced and suggests that the wooden spears were not necessarily only used for hunting, but possibly also as a weapon for self-defense.

Russia's Most Syrian Adventure #20

from the Homs Province.

No news (yet) of the number of strikes.

There are reports the Russians are getting frustrated with the lack of progress.  This could be wishful thinking.

There were Russian soldiers who died in Syria.  The Russian miitary is claiming they committed suicide.  The family of one of the soldiers is disputing their son's death was by suicide.  Its possible he did kill himself and the evidence he did NOT commit suicide is nonexistent: having had very personal experience with suicide, the natural reaction is to deny.  However, the Russian government has show its willingness to lie about the deaths of its soldiers. 

Vintage?

Scuffle in the South China Sea #1

The South China Sea is starting to become a flashpoint.  Well, it actually has been for some time, but the US has started to assert itself more and more as the Chinese start laying out the physical basis for their claims.  Namely, they are building islands through dredging up sand atop of reefs in the area.

It should be noted China pretty much claims the entirety of the South China Sea save to the 12 mile limits for the countries surrounding.  This is far past any reasonable - from the other countries and American POV - for China's territorial waters.  To have 'some' basis in international law for their claims, China has been building those artificial islands and placing personnel.  The theory being the Chinese new islands get the 12 mile limit and then the 200 mile economic exclusive zone.

As I said above, the other nations surrounding the South China Sea dispute China's claim, but lack the real ability to dispute their actions.  The US does have that ability and had already started to do so.

Previously, the US flew an antisubmarine patrol plane near the disputed islands.  They brought along a CNN reporter team so as to show how the Chinese responded.

The last 24 hours, the US sent a Burke class destroyer within 12 miles of one of the island bases.  The US made it clear it was considering this for a while and announced its intent yesterday.  The USS Lassen did, in fact, sail within those 12 miles.

Chinese warships threatened the USS Lassen.

China's foreign minister even summoned the US ambassador.

The Chinese reiterated their anger and apparently have named the artificial islands the Nanshan Islands.  I think Fiery Cross Reef sounds better though not that it matters.

We shall see what happens.

Oh!  As part of their agreement on behavior in the South China Sea, the Americans and Chinese have agreed to NOT flip each other off or point at each other with the middle finger.  o.O

However, in a meta comment, the Scuffle posts will follow in the vein of the Ukraine War Update and Russia's Most Syrian Adventure posts.  It will probably NOT be posted as often.  This is a slow fuse rather than an explosion.  However, it's something folks ought to be paying attention to.

Uncertainty in the Timing of Animal (Metazoan) Origins Strongly Suggest Molecular Clock Dating is Premature for use

Uncertainty in the Timing of Origin of Animals and the Limits of Precision in Molecular Timescales

Authors:

dos Reis et al

Abstract:

The timing of divergences among metazoan lineages is integral to understanding the processes of animal evolution, placing the biological events of species divergences into the correct geological timeframe. Recent fossil discoveries and molecular clock dating studies have suggested a divergence of bilaterian phyla greater than 100 million years before the Cambrian, when the first definite crown-bilaterian fossils occur. Most previous molecular clock dating studies, however, have suffered from limited data and biases in methodologies, and virtually all have failed to acknowledge the large uncertainties associated with the fossil record of early animals, leading to inconsistent estimates among studies. Here we use an unprecedented amount of molecular data, combined with four fossil calibration strategies (reflecting disparate and controversial interpretations of the metazoan fossil record) to obtain Bayesian estimates of metazoan divergence times. Our results indicate that the uncertain nature of ancient fossils and violations of the molecular clock impose a limit on the precision that can be achieved in estimates of ancient molecular timescales. For example, although we can assert that crown Metazoa originated during the Cryogenian (with most crown-bilaterian phyla diversifying during the Ediacaran), it is not possible with current data to pinpoint the divergence events with sufficient accuracy to test for correlations between geological and biological events in the history of animals. Although a Cryogenian origin of crown Metazoa agrees with current geological interpretations, the divergence dates of the bilaterians remain controversial. Thus, attempts to build evolutionary narratives of early animal evolution based on molecular clock timescales appear to be premature.

Stealth Saga #11

The South Koreans have been working on 3 of the 4 technologies the US banned export of already.  The AESA radar is the only technology the Koreans have not yet developed on their own.  The South Koreans have been trying to figure out how to acquire the AESA radar.  Saab and several others are already offering their solutions.

The Russians may not sell the Indians the S-400 SAM missiles unless India 'clarifies' its intentions with the T-50/PAK-FA derivative they had been working on with Russia.  India has been developing very cold feet recently over the project, worried about performance, quality control and the lack of real cooperative development with the Russians despit paying for a very large portion of the bill.  This could really backfire for the Russians.

The Canadian projected withdrawal the F-35 is going to shake up the fighter market.  Turkey is hoping to add the SOM-J cruise missile to the F-35 in software version 4.2

Bloomberg states the Long Range Strike Bomber contract will be announced tomorrow at 4 pm eastern time (after the markets close).  I'm surprised they are not waiting until friday.  Experts are split on who has won the contract.  What questions SHOULD be asked about the B-3/LRS-B and its contract?  Everyone in the aerospace industry is looking for clues as to which team won.

Exxon Aware of Global Warming in *1977*

Exxon was aware of climate change, as early as 1977, 11 years before it became a public issue, according to a recent investigation from InsideClimate News. This knowledge did not prevent the company (now ExxonMobil and the world’s largest oil and gas company) from spending decades refusing to publicly acknowledge climate change and even promoting climate misinformation—an approach many have likened to the lies spread by the tobacco industry regarding the health risks of smoking. Both industries were conscious that their products wouldn’t stay profitable once the world understood the risks, so much so that they used the same consultants to develop strategies on how to communicate with the public.

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Indonesia to Join TransPacific Partnership Free Trade Zone

Indonesian President Joko Widodo, speaking after a meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama on Monday, said his country intends to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal the United States has forged with 11 countries.

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Ancient Cherts Give Hints for Biosignatures on Mars

Ultrastructural Heterogeneity of Carbonaceous Material in Ancient Cherts: Investigating Biosignature Origin and Preservation

Authors:

Yuangao et al

Abstract:

Opaline silica deposits on Mars may be good target sites where organic biosignatures could be preserved. Potential analogues on Earth are provided by ancient cherts containing carbonaceous material (CM) permineralized by silica. In this study, we investigated the ultrastructure and chemical characteristics of CM in the Rhynie chert (c. 410 Ma, UK), Bitter Springs Formation (c. 820 Ma, Australia), and Wumishan Formation (c. 1485 Ma, China). Raman spectroscopy indicates that the CM has experienced advanced diagenesis or low-grade metamorphism at peak metamorphic temperatures of 150–350°C. Raman mapping and micro-Fourier transform infrared (micro-FTIR) spectroscopy were used to document subcellular-scale variation in the CM of fossilized plants, fungi, prokaryotes, and carbonaceous stromatolites.

In the Rhynie chert, ultrastructural variation in the CM was found within individual fossils, while in coccoidal and filamentous microfossils of the Bitter Springs and formless CM of the Wumishan stromatolites ultrastructural variation was found between, not within, different microfossils. This heterogeneity cannot be explained by secondary geological processes but supports diverse carbonaceous precursors that experienced differential graphitization. Micro-FTIR analysis found that CM with lower structural order contains more straight carbon chains (has a lower R3/2 branching index) and that the structural order of eukaryotic CM is more heterogeneous than prokaryotic CM.

This study demonstrates how Raman spectroscopy combined with micro-FTIR can be used to investigate the origin and preservation of silica-permineralized organics. This approach has good capability for furthering our understanding of CM preserved in Precambrian cherts, and potential biosignatures in siliceous deposits on Mars.

The Robopocalypse is a Thing: Walmart Applies for FAA to Test Drone Delivery

Wal-Mart Stores Inc applied Monday to U.S. regulators for permission to test drones for home delivery, curbside pickup and checking warehouse inventories, a sign it plans to go head-to-head with Amazon in using drones to fill and deliver online orders.

The world's largest retailer by revenue has for several months been conducting indoor tests of small unmanned aircraft systems – the term regulators use for drones - and is now seeking for the first time to test the machines outdoors. It plans to use drones manufactured by China's SZ DJI Technology Co Ltd.

In addition to having drones take inventory of trailers outside its warehouses and perform other tasks aimed at making its distribution system more efficient, Wal-Mart is asking the Federal Aviation Administration for permission to research drone use in "deliveries to customers at Walmart facilities, as well as to consumer homes," according to a copy of the application reviewed by Reuters.

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US Navy Destroyer to Pass Closer Than 12 Miles From Chinese Artificial Islands in South China Sea

The U.S. Navy plans to send the USS Lassen destroyer within 12 nautical miles of artificial islands built by China in the South China Sea within 24 hours, the first of more regular challenges to China's territorial claims, a U.S. defense official said on Monday.

The destroyer's patrol would occur near Subi and Mischief reefs in the Spratly archipelago, features that were formerly submerged at high tide before China began a massive dredging project to turn them into islands in 2014.

The ship would likely be accompanied by a U.S. Navy P-8A surveillance plane, and possibly P-3 surveillance plane, which have been conducting regular surveillance missions in the region, according to the official.

The patrol will mark the most serious U.S. challenge yet to the 12-nautical-mile territorial limit China claims around the islands, and follows months of deliberation.

Additional patrols could follow in coming weeks, the official said.

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This is supposed to happen in the next 24 hours.