New Mexico State University agricultural economics professor Brian Hurd and University of New Mexico civil engineering professor Julie Coonrod say a wide range of climate models predict warmer weather and a change in precipitation patterns in New Mexico.
The researchers said in a study released Tuesday that those changes could lead to a drop in the basin's water supply by as little as a few percent or as much as one-third. That, in turn, could result in direct and indirect losses ranging between $13 million and $115 million by 2030 and from $21 million to more than $300 million by 2080.
The researchers noted that water is used by people, plants and animals and it's used to grow food and provide economic and ecological benefits.
"Under current climate there is virtually no spare water in New Mexico," the study says. "Imagine a very plausible future ... of significantly less water and at the same time significantly more people."
Most at risk are rural communities and agriculture, said Hurd, who has studied climate change and its economic effects for more than a decade.
According to the study, warmer temperatures could create a shift in precipitation patterns, leading to more rain and less snow. Much of the state's surface water comes from snow melt.
Warmer temperatures also mean earlier snow melts, and the researchers said that means water that makes it to the state's reservoirs has more time to evaporate before the irrigation season.
Hurd and Coonrod said less water means crops will shrink and production will drop, which could irreversibly alter New Mexico's landscape and character.
"Irrigated lands support more than crops," Hurd said. "They provide habitat for wildlife, open space and scenic vistas for the backdrop to New Mexico's thriving art, tourist and recreation economies."
Hurd and Coonrod also said the effects warming and drying would have an impact on the state's forests, rangelands and water quality. Wildfires could happen more often and be more severe, and wildlife and livestock would have less forage.
Also, farmers might experience more pressure to lease or sell their water rights so communities can sustain their populations.
"This is something that has already been happening in the state," Hurd said. "Climate change will only hasten water transfers."
Speaking of NM and Climate Change, Jason...
2 comments:
The sky is falling, the sky is falling. I sure feel like that's all that is going on right now with news about climate change. WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol. It's kinda like news from Irag . . . if you hear it from main stream media, there's NOTHING good to talk about. You pretty much have to talk to the soldiers themselves to hear anything good.
Well, if the farmers can't farm anymore, at least we don't have to feel guilty anymore about selling the prime farming land for development.
lol.
The sky isn't falling: the climate's changing. The world isn't ending. WE've had far, far hotter periods in paleo times. If I may:
http://www.scotese.com/climate.htm
However, as there was a major change back in the Middle Ages (Medieval Thermal Maximum) and then the Little Ice Age, we're going through another shift. This one is man made though and the changes will not be uniform. Unfortunately, NM is going to be hard hit from what I've read and some of the coworkers[1] I've helped with running on the systems here have stated.
*IF* the models are correct, there's lots of farm land in the US that will remain relatively untouched and still usable. Just not in NM...
Hell, Jason, you KNOW what's been a problem in NM for decades and it's only gotten worse. They were talking about the mega aquifer in the 1980s going too salty for agriculture.
Now, fwiw, there might be ways of mitigating the shift from snow to rain: build up more dams, make Elephant Butte larger, etc. That politically is not without its own issues though. :)
Mike, the guy I worked with at the conference in Seattle in Nov 05 was part of the IPCC team that got the Nobel. Well, him and x thousand others. lol.
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