What is Putin Up to?

Over the last few weeks, President Vladimir Putin’s has elevated long-time associate Viktor Zubkov as prime minister, “accepted” the pro-Kremlin United Russia party’s “invitation” to head its list of candidates for the upcoming State Duma elections, and strongly hinted he may become prime minister (Putin said becoming prime minister was “entirely realistic” but that it was still “too early to think about it”). In the wake of these moves, a consensus seems to be emerging that Putin will remain “in power” after his second and final constitutionally authorized presidential term ends next March. Exactly how he will hold on to power remains an open question.

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It could happen as follows: in the aftermath of United Russia’s victory in December’s State Duma elections (its margin of victory made all the larger by Putin’s name at the top of their ticket), Putin resigns as president and is named United Russia’s presidential candidate for the next presidential elections -- which, according to Russia’s constitution, are to be held “no later than three months after the early termination of the President’s powers.” Zubkov would then become acting president, but would serve in that capacity for no longer than three months – hardly enough time for him to consolidate power (were he inclined to do so). Putin then runs for president and wins by a landslide – and does so without violating the constitutional prohibition on a president serving two terms “in succession.”

Not only would Putin be “clean” in terms of not having violated the letter of Russia’s constitution, but he would be the first Russian head of state to have been elected as the candidate of a political party – something that the Kremlin’s spin doctors would no doubt point to as yet another stage in the maturation of Russia’s “sovereign democracy.”

Now let's contrast this with the 'maturation' of Ukrainian democracy: the Ukrainians might not have all the corruption out of their system as yet, but if the vote count finishes with no surprises in the last .13% they will have a third time that through elections a government has changed hands peacefully. I'd have to say that the Russians are not showing their best here. I don't want to stereotype here, but, erm, uh yeah.