Monday, July 14, 2014

Ukraine: Patterns of Death, Fear and Anxiety

Ukraine lost another aircraft.  This was an AN-26.  It was flying at an altitude higher than the MANPADS ought to reach.  There are some wild rumors running around as to how that was shot down.  The most plausible is that the Russians provided something which can shoot higher than a MANPADS.  The next most likely - but far distant - is that the russians shot it down from their territory.  The third rumor which is running rampant is a Russian fighter shot it down.  The crew bailed out and survived, but were captured.  This took place near Lugansk.

An artillery shell apparently landed in Russia and killed a Russian citizen.  Who shot it is a big question.  The Ukrainians deny they have and they have been taking pains not to fire large weapons into Russian to avoid a provocation.  The Russians stated this was a provocative act and if there are more, they'll retaliate.  In fact, they are talking already about targeted strikes.  You can bet they will be helping the LGM.

In fact, the Ukrainian government has stated Russian soldiers are fighting along side the rebels. The number of armoured vehicles has radically climbed.  No heavy artillery yet, but lots and lots of Grad MLRS.

There are persistent rumors the Russians are coming, erm, invading in the next week.  if they do anything, I bet its airstrike.  Think the American strategy in the beginning with Afghanistan. 

The Ukrainians are getting set for a huge push.  It seems to be focused on Donetsk. 

Its the breath before the plunge, folks.  This next week is going to be...bloody and powerful.

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