Ukraine: Patterns of Confusion

The Ukrainian army is attempting to take the city of Donetsk.  The push is on.  In the DNR, Krinichna was captured today.  The National Guard battalions were frustrated in Ilovaisk.  Troops are pushing in from the H20, H15, T05 and H21 highways from the south.  They are pushing into the Spartak distrct in Doentsk from the north and down the H20 highway.  They are also attacking across the M04 highway from the northeast looking to link up with Paneteleimonivka.  They are fighting in from the east up the H21 highway from Shkhtarsk.  The fighting is still on in Gorlovka.

Likewise they are attempting to slice and dice the LNR (Lugansk People's Republic) into smaller pieces.  As predicted they are running up the H21 highway to link up as I said they would.  Likewise they are running down the M03 highway from Debaltseve.

Barring two possibilities, the rebels, LGM et al are in deep, deep trouble and this will be over soon.  However, it is very possible for this this go pear shaped.  This ain't over til its over.

How could it go pear shaped?

1.  The LNR is supposed to be massing  armour in Sverdlovsk.  I have seen wildly differing counts on the number of armoured fighting vehicles.  Some say as much as 200!  Or more!  You would think there would be video evidence of such a formation.  That's nearly a two American Brigades in size and if used properly would be devastating for the Ukrainian army since it would be concentrated.

2.  The Russians might still intervene.  If that happens, whatever the reason, then the Ukrainians will lose.  The Russians are simply better organized and equipped than the Ukrainians.  The question remains whether or not Putin will cross that line.

They very well might.

The biggest question is whether or not the aid convey from Russia will be a ruse or Putin trying to save face with the population of Eastern Ukraine which has a very low opinion of him right now.  And to boost his reputation in the rest of the world.  However, military aid is still flowing across the border into Ukraine from Russia to the rebels.  

I cannot imagine Putin backing down, but his pawns are seriously taking it in the shorts and on the cusp of being crushed.  I cannot say what he will do. 

My prayers are for the Ukrainian army and those caught in the crossfire.