Thursday, August 07, 2014

Ukraine: Patterns of Slow Progress Weaved With Dismay and Hope

There seems to be progress once more on in the Donbass in Ukraine.

The Ukrainians have taken Panteleimonivka near Gorlovka and Donetsk.  My guess is they will head to Korsun next.  Supposedly, the lines of communication have been cut between Gorlovka and Donetsk.  Based on the roads, this looks like why.

There are confusing reports whether or not they have also taken Miusynsk. The Ukrainian armed forces have entered at least. This is between Snizhne and Krasnyi Luch on the H21 highway. The goal is obviously to take Krasnyi Luch.  The LNR may be trying to breakthrough to the DNR.  The DNR, specifically Strelkov, has been pleading for help, stating the Ukrainians are about to crush his forces.  This may who is contesting Miusynk.

There are also confusing reports as to whether or not Mariinka has been taken from the DNR.  Its been reported as taken before. 

Fortunately, most of the Ukrainian soldiers who crossed into Russia have been repatriated.  The OSCE escorted them back.  Rumors are that 36 of the soldiers have been retained.  Despite what you see in the Russo-apologist sphere, they were not there to defect. Why the Russians let them go...is a bit of a head scratcher.

Borodai has resigned as the DNR's Prime minister in favour of someone who is actually Ukrainian. Zakharchenko is supposed to be taking his place. This may be a gambit to get the locals to accept the DNR.  This strongly implies the DNR is on is very last legs. 

Canada is sending more equipment for the Ukrainians.

Unfortunately, the  an Mi-8 helicopter (supposedly a medevac) and a Mig-29 were shot down today. 

Equally, unfortunately, the Maidan and Kiev government are clashing.  Independence Square is being cleared - often by ex euromaidan who became soldiers - and the Euromaidan activists are fighting back.  Though it seems halfheartedly. 

The Russians continue to pour in equipment and artillery fire into Ukraine. 

There are strong rumors the Russians are going to invade.  Supposedly tomorrow.  NATO has been concerned about this too.

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