A Simple Model for Predicting Sea Level Rise

Global sea level linked to global temperature

1. Martin Vermeer (a,1)
2. Stefan Rahmstorf (b)


a. Department of Surveying, Helsinki University of Technology, P.O. Box 1200, FI-02150, Espoo, Finland

b. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany

1. To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: martin.vermeer@tkk.fi

Abstract:

We propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century. When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880–2000, and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level, the correlation is >0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report, the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990–2100.

That's much less than what I've heard here. I'm putting this on the stack. I've not finished the papers from earlier today as yet.