The European Union and Moldova have set a fairly tight calendar for wrapping up their Association Agreement: signing it by August and ratifying it in the Moldovan parliament until November, when this parliament’s term expires. Moldova’s pro-Europe coalition government holds a narrow majority of 54 seats in the parliament of 101 seats. Following Russia’s victories against the EU in Armenia and Ukraine, the European Union’s stake on Moldova (as well as Georgia) has risen dramatically.
The accelerated time-table for signing and ratification implicitly challenges Russia and its sympathizers in Moldova to act faster. They are prepared to stop or delay the signing and ratification process, and can already be seen working toward that end both within and outside the parliament.
Pro-Russia forces will try to reduce the government’s parliamentary majority to a number that would not suffice for ratifying the agreements with the EU; or would cause the pro-Europe government to fall in a no-confidence vote even before it comes to ratification. In the electoral arena, Russia will undoubtedly support efforts to increase the number of its sympathizers in the new parliament soon to be elected. Operations seem already to be under way on both of those lines via Moldovan-born, Russia-based wealthy businessmen.
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