Economic Growth Outstripping Carbon Efficiency Improvements in China

Efforts to reduce China's carbon dioxide emissions are being offset by the country's rampant economic growth, according to new research from the University of East Anglia (UEA).

Research published today in Nature Climate Change reveals how carbon efficiency has improved in nearly all Chinese provinces. But the country's economic boom has simultaneously led to a growth in CO2-emitting activities such as mining, metal smelting and coal-fired electricity generation – negating any gains.

According to the study, China, the world's largest producer of CO2 emissions, increased its carbon intensity by 3 per cent during a period of unprecedented economic growth. This was despite its pledge to reduce carbon intensity by up to 45 per cent by 2020 (relative to the 2005 level).

The findings are part of a seven-year study conducted by Prof Dabo Guan of UEA's School of International Development, and an international research team. The research was partly funded by the Economic and Social Research Council's (ESRC) Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) at the University of Leeds.

Wide variations were reported between China's 30 provinces. The less economically advantaged province of Guizhou achieved a 98 per cent gain in carbon efficiency, but concurrent production increases led to a 125 per cent efficiency loss. Consequently, the net carbon efficiency of the province fell by 27 per cent.

The most marked improvements occurred in the economically advanced coastal areas and the heavily industrialised inland regions.

While the implementation of new, less wasteful technologies helped most provinces boost their carbon efficiency, China's emissions-intensive capital projects offset those advances. For example, Inner Mongolia replaced many inefficient, carbon-intensive factories with large-scale modern facilities. This resulted in metal smelting and cement production increasing 14-fold between 2002-2009. As a consequence, the region experienced a 159 per cent efficiency improvement, but a 141 per cent increased scale of production meant the net efficiency gain was a comparatively modest 18 per cent.

Likewise, the carbon efficiency of China's coal-fired power plants improved by 10 per cent, while its production capacity more than doubled and its share in the total economy also increased. Other CO2-intensive industries showed similar trends.

In the past decade, China has maintained at least an 8 per cent annual GDP, propped up by the construction of railroads, highways, power grids and housing.

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