Infectious disease watchers are again wondering what is going on in Saudi Arabia. Since the beginning of February the Saudis have reported 52 cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome—better known as MERS; 40 have come to light in the past week or so alone. Since the disease first hit the world’s radar in September 2012 only two months have racked up more cases than this one has. They were April and May 2014, when Saudi Arabia had rampant MERS outbreaks in several hospitals.
An expert delegation from the United Nation’s human and animal health agencies began a three-day mission to the Arabian Peninsula’s geographically largest country Wednesday, trying to get to the bottom of why MERS cases are soaring.
This is the time of year in which the number of MERS cases has climbed in the past, although not enough time has elapsed to make clear whether that pattern will continue. In the past two springs large hospital outbreaks in Saudi Arabia have certainly created the appearance of a high season for MERS transmission, which some scientists believe exists and is linked to the birth and weaning of young camels. The animals are known to be susceptible to the virus and can transmit it to people. Like young children who infect the adults around them with colds and flu, juvenile camels are thought to drive the spread of this virus among camel herds and out into the human population. Then someone becomes sick enough to require hospitalization and the infection spreads.
But even if there is a seasonal component to MERS, a spring surge has never before started this early in the year. By comparison, in the past two Februaries fewer than 10 cases were reported. "Of course we don't have 10, 20 years’ history to be able to predict any seasonal patterns,’’ says Peter Ben Embarek, a food safety expert who is the World Health Organization’s point person for MERS. “But just based on the last couple of years, the couple of seasons we've come through, it's not a good start."
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