Quick Thoughts on the Republican Primaries

It should be noted that Trump has not, as yet, captured 50% of the delegates to the Republican Convention.  The combined NoTrump delegates are 10% more than what he has.

Just saying.

Second thought is California might actually be really important for the primaries this time around.

Republican Primaries

Trump takes Florida, North Carolina and Illinois.

Rubio quit.  

It also wouldn't have mattered had Kasich and Rubio cooperated in tactical voting.  Rubio still would not have won Florida.  The only place that seems to have like Rubio in Florida was Miami-Dade County.  I'd be worried about loser stink now, if I were Rubes.  He simply ran too early.  He could have waited until 2024 and been fine: he's young.

So, will he have loser stink?

Kasich seems to have taken Ohio.

A Trois for tactical voting would have prevented Trump from taking Florida, given Cruz North Carolina and, well, sadly not helped Kasich in taking Ohio, but he had no hope in the others.  Kasich would have to want to prevent Trump at all costs.

So, will Cruz bail?

Quick Political Comment

If not for the superdelegates, Bernie and Clinton would be neck and neck.

Bush the Least is out.  Whoa. 

Will Kasich get pressure to bow out? 

After all, if Rubio, Kasich and Bush are contending for the same voters, then if the latter two were not in the race, then Rubio would have beaten Trump for South Carolina.

US Presidential Run so far

Fiorina and Christie are out on the Republican side.

O'Malley on the Democratic side and Bush and Carson on the Republican side really ought to do the same.

Tally on the Republican side puts Trump at 17 delegates, Cruz at 11, Rubio at 10, Kasich at 5, Bush at 4 and Carson at 3.  They need 1237 to win the nomination.  We have a long road ahead.

Tally on the Democratic side puts Clinton at 431 and Saunders at 52.  Clinton is luvvin the superdelegates right now!  They need 2382 to become the nominee.

Nevada is next (dems on the 20th, reps on the 23rd) and South Carolina then (feb 27).

WTH, New Hampshire!?!

Go look at the results. 

Nuff said.

Iowa

So, Cruz (8), Trump (7) and Rubio (!!) (7).

With Carson (3), Paul (1) and Bush the Least (1).

Well now.  I was thinking Rubes was toast.  As toasty as Bush the Least.

And Huckles is out.

Live Blogging the Democratic Debate

Here we go again.

Will this be the one that kills off O'Malley?  I was expecting the last Republican debate to have ended a couple of the lower tier campaigns.  It seems they did not.  I wonder if we are entering into a realm where we have candidates who know they will never be the nominee, but run specifically to pull the likely nominees to whatever issue they have or a position closer to theirs and their supporters'.

This debate is only Hillary's to lose.  She is pretty much the nominee presumptive.

17:32 PT: Finally.

Opening Statements:

Clinton:  Keep people safe, help everyone in the economy.  Democrats are better than Republicans.

O'Malley:  Different debate.  America attacked is why.  Talk about economy, yes, but first job of the president is to protect this country.  Danger of democracy split.  Need a new uniter.  Never give up!  Never surrender!  Smacks Trump.

Sanders:  we have to change the way things are done.  Economy.  New wealth only going to 1%.  Economy for everyone.  fix the campaign system.  fix climate change.  new foreign policy.  destroy isis but no more quagmires.

Database controversy:

Sanders:  this happened twice.  first time staff did good job.  second time, fired person.  this was a problem.  DNC cut off access, crippling campaign and resolved last night.  Wants to work from with Clinton if Clinton's team saw.  Bothered this is a breach.  Sanders mans up and apologizes.

Clinton:  appreciates apology.  independent inquiry.  wants to move on to something else.

O'Malley: more important things.

Sanders: we all agree.

 San Bernardino, should we feel safe?:

Clinton: keep people safe first.  her plan to defeat isis/daesh.  not commenting on local US incidents.  She's not answering the question. For homeland, monitor internet.  Work closely with silicon valley.  Must closer with muslim american communities.

O'Malley: Clinton said is true, but we have not invested in intel services.  not just foreign but also in the US.  Big brother sounding.

Sanders: he agrees with the others.  this is very hard.  crush ISIS/Daesh.  Calls out to Jordan's King.  nothing about the inside the US.

Gun control:

Clinton: guns are a problem. must build coalition to fight ISIS/Daesh.  Guns will not make people safer.  no more arming people. 33k people per year killed by guns.  build coalition with muslims here.  bashes Trump.  No clash of civilizations.

Sanders (discourage guns?):  people have the right to buy guns.  links mass killings together, including San Bernardino.  people says instant background check should be stronger.  No more gun show loop hole.  no assault weapons.

O'Malley picks fight with moderator.  Says he's passed gun control.  Clinton isa  greased weather vane.  Sanders was against Brady bill, etc.  Getting angry and energetic.   For confiscation of assault rifles?  no.  Attacks both of them.

Clinton calls O'Malley a liar.

Sanders we need rules for the debate.

Sanders: great to make speech, different to build coalition.  rips O'Malley.

Clinton: Applauds O'Malley for his record.  but says O'malley is full of it.

Trump vs Muslims:

Clinton: Trump is an idiot.  Actually gives GW Bush credit for reaching out to muslims.

Sanders: report suspicious activity. wants to talk about something else.  turns to economy instead of profiling, etc.  Calls Trump a monster.

Encryption:

Clinton: Not wanting to force SV.  ugh.  invokes manhattan project.  wants SV and gov to be partners.  backdoor might be the wrong answer, but understands law enforcement.

O'Malley: never give up privacy.  Bashes trump.

Refugees:

Clinton: no halt necessary.  increase vetting.

O'Malley: accept refugees and more.  Refugees are not the problem.  Look at other visas.

Fight Against ISIS:

Sanders (why for Afghanistan and not ISIS, why?):  brings up Iraq.  US cannot succeed as world policeman. (if plan b doesn't work) tells Saudis to fight ISIS instead of yemen and qatar to attack ISIS.

Clinton: specfor is not the same as  ground troops.  afghanistan different. local failures are reason for ISIS.  (really?  Not just a US failure?)  ISIS wants american troops.  Attacks trump again.

Clinton (ISIS like vietnam?):  stay to air coalition, train iraqis, get locals to fight.  build coalition stay only in the air and specfor.

O'Malley (humint):  more spies and also more diplomatic intel. also include sustainable presence.  USAID a cabinet level position.  points finger at US actions for IS happening.  good for him.

Clinton: safe refuges with no fly zones.  must work with Russians and ban assadites.

HAHAHAHAHA.  empty toothless no fly zone, lady. 

Sanders: iraq again.  worries clinton is too much into regime change and unintended consequences.  calls her too aggressive.

Clinton: Sanders is for regime change in libya.  smacks sanders.

 Assad first or later?

Clinton: get both done now.  Don't include Iran in coalition.

Sanders: complicated issue.  Assad bad, but priorities must be right.  Assad not attacking US.  ISIS is.  kill ISIS first.  include Russia. 

O'Malley: do things differently than during the Cold War.  Our job not to run the US.  Kill ISIS.  Then work with UN for after ISIS dead.  Not our job to get rid of ISIS. 

Clinton: Assad is the problem.  ISIS is because of Assad.  wanted to arm moderate rebels.  wuh?  She just poorly worded that.  Transition for Assad.  USA don't lead, there is a vacuum.

Sanders: US must lead.  Must not be policemen of the world.  cannot fight ISIS and Assad.  Assad later.  build coalition first.

just warning: I will have to quit at 19:00 PT for a business call.

ECONOMY:

 income inequality

Sanders:  middle class disappearing.  better off than when bush left, but people not doing well even so.  attacks 1%.  1% pay taxes.  living wages.  equal pay for women.  rebuild infrastructure with $1T investment.  tax on wall street speculation for education/tuition free.

O'Malley (differences): look at my record.  15 goals to make possible.  universal national service for youth as an option.

Clinton:  attacks republicans.  raise incomes.  ok, how?  raise minimization.  incentivize profit sharing.  equal pay for women.  fix college tuition.  get drugs price down.  fight the republicans too.  everyone should love me.  will be president for everyone.  buffet rule.  create jobs, esp in small business.

Sanders (corporate america): Corp america will hate sanders. wall street will hate sanders.  fix wall street.  trust busting. greed of wall street, billionaires.

O'Malley: (role of corp america) economy is an ecosystem.  better way than Sanders or Clinton.  no socialism.  no wall street, crony capitalism. Attacks clinton pretty hard.  calls her out for invoking 9/11.  bad mergers.  no big six banks.  trust busting.

Clinton: 1.  two hedge fund billionaires against me because I will be hunting HFers.  2.  3% donations come from financial industry (more from students and teachers) 3. O'Malley had no problems going to wall street for fund raising.  Sanders voted against regulating derivatives.

Sanders: No superPAC, no wall street $.  fought bill clinton, republicans and greenspan over banking mergers.  go to youtube and see what I said.  fight wall street.

Health care:

what to fix in obamacare.


okay.  gotta stop.

Putin Praises Trump

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday described US Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump as a talented and outstanding man, welcoming his stance on Russia.

"He is a very outstanding man, unquestionably talented," Putin told journalists after his annual press conference in Moscow.

"It's not up to us to judge his virtue, that is up to US voters, but he is the absolute leader of the presidential race," Putin added.

link.

Live Blogging the Republican Debates

 Let's Cruz by in our Carson and Trump the dead Bush, for a virtuous candidate has a worth far above a Rubi(o).  We're Carly going to find someone like that here.  

I can't fit in Kasich.  alas.

here we go.

geeeeez. This is taking forever.


Opening Statements:

Rand:  out the door attacking Rubio and Trump.  Arabs only on the ground.

Kasich:many things need to be fixed and Americans need to stop yelling at each other and unify.

Christie:  attacks Obama and Clinton.  eh.  THINK OF THE CHILDREN!  you idiot.  ahem.  I just did the thing Kasich complained about.  I'll go stand in the corner.

Fiorina:  angry.  grrr.  Dig at Trump.  We can fix everything with a leader.  ME ME ME! She doing things that make me wonder if she's calling to women here.  Now for the red bloods.  Me!

Shrub Mk2: we need a strong leader.  wait.  Obama didn;t cut the defense as much as congress did with the mandatory cuts.  I will keep you safe, secure and free.

Rubio: grew up here.  oh geez.  we are the greatest.  grr.  Obama is a disaster. Wait.  is he dog whistling???  He's not taking shots at the others.  odd.  Slight dig by saying he'll act like a president.

Cruz: america at war with radical islamic terrorism.  All republicans are better than either obama or clinton.  keep america safe first.  hunt down and kill terrorists.  utterly destroy IS.  no jihadi refuges.  No swings at anyone else.  No PCness!  hmph.

Carson: moment of silence for San Bernardino.  Interesting move.   war with radical islamic jihadists.  I can plan.  America is the patient.  no PCness.  Wants to declare war on ISIS.

Trump: people loooooooove me.


First question:

Best way to isolate america from rest of world.

Trump:  not talking about religion, talking about safety.  Kick out those ehre.

Called trump unhinged. 

Bush:  kill isis.  no fly zone.  heh.  let's start a war with Russia!  hnf hnf.  Embed trumps.  Calls trump's proposals not serious.  Trump good at one liners.  hard core dig at Trump.

Trump counter:  Jeb just saying that because Bush loser.  Other presidents sucked.

Bush:  Banning all muslims makes everything harder.  lawyers are hobbling war fighters.  o.O  Calls Trumps not serious.

Rubio: Obama bad.  Trump's proposal nonsense.  ISIS the most scary terrorist group ever. Says Obama's talk made things worse.

Cruz (disagree with trump how):  attacks obama instead of trump.  against syrian refugees.  Ban refugees from ISIS controls big area.  Odd attack on Trump about horse thieves.  -_-

Fiorina (OH NO REAGAN!): republican solutions.  leaders not lawyers or entertainers.  No territory at the caliphate.  at home, update patriot act...oy.

Christie (Americans afraid, LA threat, is this new normal?):  yes, it is.  blame clinton and obama.everywhere in america is a target.  spy on america to save amerca!  WTF!!!!  yes, let's trust a lawyer.

Kasich (how to find radical in the US): need troops on the ground to fight ISIS. Cliamte conference needed to talk ISIS too.  Use joint terrorism task force.  OMG!  encryption.  DO NOT LISTEN TO MY PRIVATE COMMUNCATION JERK!

Balance surveillance and privacy:

Cruz (vote mistake):  ended listen to everyone.  why does he keep talking 'bad guys' like we were 5 yos?

Rubio: keep surveillance going.

Cruz: calls Rubio liar.

Rubio: said Cruz talked about classified info.  bill took away powerful tool.

free for all.

Paul: Rubio wrong.  stricter controls on border.  too much data from NSA and distracts us.  calls Rubio for open border!  whoa.  calls him a liberal loyalist.

Rubio: Paul's bill only got 10 votes.  metadata more strict.  whoa.  wants to spy on american citizens.

Paul: Rubio still misunderstands.  Wants rules and restrictions on immigration.

Privacy.

Christie: says senate is all about angels on a pin.  I'm an exec and know can act.  No one in america cares about stupid debates.  I ... really detest this guy.  Let's talk about doing something, not debating.

Carson (what is anti american): monitor mosques.  listen to anywhere.  o.O  duuuuuuude. doesn't know who is right.  let Rubio and Paul fight.

Bush: Islam is not a problem.  let's surveill everyone.  good gawd.    destroy ISIS there to win.  Don't talk about surveillance in public.

Fiorina: SV refuses to help crack encryption.  meh.  gov idiots.  omg.  Do not be forced, ask them.

Trump (closing internet): use SV to figure out how to kill ISIS online.  ISIS are evil.  hunt isis online.  open to closing part of the internet.

Kasich: not a good idea to shutdown internet.  metadata collection good.  attacks encryption use.

ISIS war of our time:

Cruz (can sand glow in dark?): means use overwhelming air power.  arm kurds.  fight and kill ISIS in Syria and Iraq.  PC is the problem, not incompetence. no city destruction.  lots of wank after that.

Rubio: cannot defeating them only by air strikes.  ground force must defeat them and sunni arabs must defeat them with special forces.  reverse cuts in air force and navy.  win the propaganda war.  Cruz voted against defense authorization.  thinks cruz would veto DA.

Cruz: true about vote.  oppose detaining.  Rubio insulted me.  I am scary than Rubio.  Rubio supports Obama and Clinton.

Rubio: walks a dangerous line with American citizen right.  Cruz won't lead.

How to fight war with ISIS:

Trump: we must tougher on families.

Bush: this isn't serious.  calls Trump's strategy crazy.

Trump: thinks Jeb nice, but US needs tough.

Jeb and Trump attack.

whoa.  online issues.

Trump and Jeb insult each other.


 ugh.  internet problem.  


Whoa.  ok.  Can you be as ruthless as Chruchil..

Carson: tough yes, ruthless no.

ISIS stronger because of hawks:

Paul: US armed ISIS allies.  Libya was a mistake.  Trump is NOT serious.  Geneva convention and 1st amendment.  Do you believe in constitution or not?

Trump:  attacks Paul.  Talks closing down parts of in Syria and Iraq.  Infiltrate their conversations.

Paul: are republicans responsible?  Is regime change a good idea?  we should be a isolationist.

Kasich:  coalition in Syria.  repeat first gulf war against ISIS.

internet problems again.

Rubio asked, but livestream  got stuck.

ok

unstuck.

Christie is ranting about the sequester.

Carson:  attack energy, attack ground but also boots on the ground, do what military says.

break over.

Cruz: regime change bad.  wuh oh.  said we should be like woodrow wilson.

Rubio:  qadafi would going down with or without US.  must work with bad.  anti america dictators must go.

Cruz: regime attack.  moderate rebels are mythical purple unicorns.  I'm the same as netanyahu..

Kasich: assad must go.

Trump (are americans safer with dictators): wasted money.  gets heckled.  better spending the money at home.

Fiorina: Obama said what Trump said.  Clinton wrong.

 Trump: people are different.  attacks Clinton, Obama.  let's be isolationist.  wait.  are you going to destroy ISIS or be isolationist?  Loves Carson.  wait.  what?  Are we seeing Trump-Carson  yikes.

Carson (better off with dictators?): america needs help first.  then think about fixing ME.

Bush:  Saddam killing was good.  attacks Obama.

Paul: regime change is bad.

Cruz: wrong question.

Wolff vs Cruz.

Trump:  can't fight everyone.


Ok.  sorry.

Fiorina: didn't say not to talk to Putin.  Says Putin lies.  duh.  Build strength against Putin.  attacks Obama, Clinton for Iraq withdrawal caused ISIS.  she has a point there.

Christie:  shoot down Russian plane in no fly zone, yes.  Will talk to Putin and warn.  Calls Oabam a weakling.  total lack of respect for the office.

Paul:  says christie would start ww3. bridge attack on Christie.

Christie: attacks obama instead of Paul.


Jeb insults Trump again.


streaming problems again.



Kasich is saying everyone arguing and being stupid.  Bringing together people.

Carson (qualified to be commander in chief): nice slam on politicians only.  however....whoa less talk more do.  That's my line, damnit.

Immigration:

Rubio: I live the immigrant problem.  American people do not trust feds about illegal immigration.  After ten years probation, open to green card after all other measures done.

Cruz: our immigration plans different.  not for amnesty.  Invokes saint reagan.  damn.  Will get Trump to pay for border wall (silly).

Rubio:  Cruz really isn't that different.

Cruz: Rubio wants to muddy waters.  I fought Rubio.  Nice shot about arsonist and fireman the same.

furball.

Cruz: does not intend to allow path to citizenship.

Furball.

Trump:  have a very hard line position.  illegals out.  period. 

Bush (immigration debate won't help debate):  secure the border.  fix the border.

Carson:  refugee camp really quite nice.  Says Syrians want to go home.

Paul (would you send back the 2k Syria): attacks Rubio.

Rubio: parries Paul.  hmmm.

Paul (2k already here): 2k stay.  no retroactive.  charity only for private people to do.

Bible question.

Christie: first job to protect americans.  ignores bible commentary. :)  attacks Obama and Clinton.  No widows and orphans.

Kasich: we do a good job against terror.  vetting program broken.



North Korea:

Fiorina (hydrogen bomb): Kim Jung Un is dangerous.  isolate NK and work with China.  wuh.  o.O  retaliate against china and fight for south china sea.  contain china and then work with china.  hmmm.

Carson: NK dangerous.  NK is a mess.  ...  use economy to contain NK and Putin.  export american energy to do so.  Upgrade military.

Christie (cyber attack): cyber war if china attacks.  uhm.  doesn't seem to understand understand what cyberwarfare about.  he's talking hacking and doxxing china.  o.O  attack Obama and clinton again.

Bush (concerned about cyber attack): completely agrees with Christie.  brings up email servers again Clinton.

streaming problems again.

Trump says he was against Iraq.  Nuclear weapons too important.  Biggest problem is nuclear proliferation.

More streaming problems.

calling it here.  sorry

Jindal has Left the Building

Another one down.  He said it was not his time.  Really?  Never would have suspected.

Based on what he is espousing, probably never.

NotLiveBlog: Returning to the Democratic Debate

Ok.  I am returning to the debate.  Ii'll pseudo live blog it.  However, I'll be able to go back and pause the playback of the debate to make longer, better comments.

I will say before I get started I am very disappointed the candidates, at least as they commented in the part of the debate I watched before my call on friday seem to have missed the boat as far as the strategic holiday being over.  The world has changed, but it also changed in a way that seems these Democratic Candidates are stuck in the Oughts rather than the current time, never mind, looking forward to the future in terms of defense.

Returning to wall street:

Clinton (can she be trusted with Wall Street potentially bribing her): yes.  you can.  I have a very aggressive plan.  go after shadow banking 

Sanders: clinton's response not good enough.  why has wall street been a major contributor to Hillary's campaigns.  Invokes Teddy Roosevelt.  o.O  Saint Reagan first, now saint Roosevelt.  WS is going to get influence with Clinton.

DOG FIGHT.

Clinton: She felt she was smeared by sanders there.  Let's be honest.  he did smear her.  however, he's probably being honest.  The contributions are expected to have some influence associated with them.  To think otherwise is naive at best.  Unpausing clinton here.  Trots out women as majority as contributors.  Trots out 9/11.  o.O  She doesn't refute the allegation of undue influence, actually.  how amusing.  She says her plan is more aggressive than Sanders for reigning in WS right afterwards.  The devil, Madame Secretary, is in the details and riders.  That's normally where they get their influence.

Sanders: calls the entirety of the corrupt campaign system.  show by example.  Go trust busting.  who-ah.

Clinton gave him a death look.  dude.

O'Malley: attacks Clinton's choices for advisors.  Says we need new economic thinking.  Yes, but what, Gov?  He attacks Clinton and says Clinton's plan is 'weak tea.'  Reinstate modern version of glass-steagal (sp).

Clinton: attacks O'Malley again.  states she will go after big banks *IF* they misbehave?  Oh come on!  If they are NOT misbehaving is the real question here.  geez.  C'mon, Sec.  She threatens to go after banks then and prosecute the bankers if they screw up.  Sooo...why didn;t she persuade Obama to do so?!

Sanders: Wall Street is fraud.  hrm.  not sure I'd go THAT far, but whether or not they play by the rules is very much in question though.  WS will not be Sanders' cabinet.

Guns:

Clinton (Sanders differences):  My record is better.  claims Sanders voted to make gun lobby stronger.  Talks about 3k people killed by guns since vegas debate.  Claims Sanders tainted.

Called out by moderator who says shouldn't the same level of 'stain' be on Clinton for Iraq vote?

Clinton:  Says she made a mistake.  Offers to reverse the immunity and let Sanders come back from the dark side there.

Sanders: willing to fix many of the pieces of the bad bill.  also brings up mental health with respect to gun control.  Won't call his vote a mistake though.

O'Malley: Attacks Sanders, lightly.  Slams Clinton saying she's been on three sides of the issue.  Says Clinton leads by polls and not by principle.  ouch.

Sanders:  Baltimore not safest city in  America.  dang.  Bring people together for consensus on gun control bill.  Put an olive branch out to clinton there.  nice dialback of the slamming.

Clinton: Slams Sanders by saying he could provide leadership in the Senate for new gun control.

Twitter goes after Clinton for Wall Street donations and using 9/11 for donations.  daaaaang.

Clinton: sorry you got that impressive.  Lady, *I* got that impression and I could pause the yammering.  yeesh.  Says she got donations because they felt she did a good job helping NYC recover from 9/11.

Sanders: Clinton did a good job in NYC.  However, WS is evil.  Their business model is greed.  Dude.  That's just capitalism.  Period.  Greed motivates.  It doesn't matter if its the guy looking for a better salary or the gal starting a business.  Money is what they are largely after...and they plan on getting as much as possible while doing something they enjoy.  Must break up giant banks.  Says CLinton unwilling to break up banks is a demonstration of her being influenced by WS.

Clinton: Invokes Krugman!  woo!  I'm awesome look at the name dropping!  woo!  Thinks bank busting would not fix wall street.  I'll have to talk to my economist friends here.  However, Sanders seems to have a point there.

O'Malley:  6 biggest banks on wall street are too powerful and their mere existence is a threat to us all if they should fail again (point).  Invokes CRONY CAPITALISM.  Fiorina is gonna like him!  ;)  Disputes Sanders and says there are good people in finance.  However, you have to protect main street from wall street.

BREAK. glad I can skip it now.  lol.

The conservative revolution (hrm).  How to deal with it as president.

Sanders:  he seems to be dodging the question here.  o.O  he seems to be implying the con rev is due to the political corruption from the campaign finance mess.  He's spouting about the people revolution thing again.  he's smart, but...uh...not answering the question other than to state he'll get people to change things, not how he'll work with his opposition.

Clinton's emails, are you being a hypocrite Sen Sanders?:

Sanders:  still sick and tired of clinton's emails.  Wants media to pay attention to income inequality/middle class disappearing.  incarceration.  go to real issues, not fluff.

Clinton: agrees with Sanders.  More americans for getting people, credits Sanders.  Says Republicans trying to prevent americans from participating.  Says Obama should get more credit than he does.

Last email question, any danger of any shoe dropping?

Clinton: 11 hours prove I'm fine.  Republicans bad, bad bad.

Race Relations, police & FBI/DEA stupid comments.

O'Malley:  claims he's done a great job with fixing the police and improving race relations.  hrm.  What city is in Maryland again that had problems recently over this?  hrm.  Black Lives Matter.

Black America, no hope question:

Wow.  Almost feels like whitesplaining there in that question.  o.O

Sanders: there is little hope right now.  1/4 chance of black males.  51% of black american graduates unemployed.  need to fix criminal justice system.  end minimum sentencing.  remove 420 from crime.  make it legal.

Black lives matter, difference between activism and getting laws passed, and university of Missouri, are you pro activist?

Clinton: activism good, she's a child of the 60s.  children of color?  uhm.  odd turn of phrase.  trots out people's dead kids.  not sure I like this, lady.  I get you met with these people, but it feels like you're using them for personal gain rather than helping fix the problem.  uh.  Fix everything.  she so feels like the politician right now.

Free Tuition, throwing away money:

There's an implication here which is being ignored in the quesiton.  a nontrivial number of people NEVER finish school because of money issues, not just flunk out.

Sanders: its not throwing away money.  UC used to be pretty free.  yup.  

where will the money come from:

Sanders: states will do the right thing.  college degree is the same as a HS degree 50 years ago.  So is SO freakin right.

O'Malley:  agrees with Sanders.  debt free college is the goal.  I've done it.  boo yah!  ;)  Disagrees Sanders, debt free college, not free college.  Proud of daughters going to college, but they're going to be proud of them every month for the rest of their natural lives (meaning paying the debt), not a bad one liner there, Gov.

Clinton: Community college free, debt free for for university (public).  meh.  says Trump's kids shouldn't be paid for by tax payers.  odd comment.  yes, true, but they're not likely to go to a public university.  meh.  

Health care:

Scrap Obamacare, single payer system, no insurance companies:

Sanders: possible after campaign reform.  we get ripped off.  beats his revolution drum again.  medicare for all.

Clinton made sandersesque comments about single payer:

Clinton: revolution never came.  Obamacare good.  defend Obamacare.  Sanders ends everything, hands to states.  makes a dig at terry brandstead (sp).  This was a shot at Sanders.

Sanders: expand medicare to everyone.  no opt out like in Obamacare.  healthcare a right nor not.

Break.

Crisis in personal experience.

Clinton: brings out bin laden.  how is this difficult?!  o.O  no certainty.  well, yeah, intel is never certain. good grief.  said to go get bin laden.

O'Malley: no crisis is at the state or local level matches national.  learned discipline.  been tried under emergencies. he led and governed even in a crisis.

Sanders:  honor of the US senate vet affairs sitting, tried to fix va healthcare.  not really applied.  Sat down and worked with those he didn't agreement.  lost what he wanted, but got the best he could.

Closing statements:

O'Malley:  new thinking is him.  not the others.  digs at clinton and sanders calling them divisive.  Find threats ahead of time.  America can do anything with the proper leadership.

Clinton:  talking about you, not me.  president is to work for people, not herself.  even the odds for every american.  work her heart out for americans.

Sanders:  income inequality, health care, corruption, problems.  fix these problems.  revolution drum beat again.  take back the country. 

Liveblogging the Democratic Debate

Keeping with tradition here I will be live blogging the debate again. There will be a potential early stop because I have a business call at 7 pt. It ought to be shot but you never know.

Tonight's debate has shifted from a domestic policy topic to foreign policy. This is due to the Paris attacks. Sanders has registered a protest at the last second change. I see both sides to this one. Sanders is stronger with the domesticated debate or he gets better traction at least with the public. The foreign policy debate might hurt his numbers.  It also seems slightly exploitive too.

Here we go.

Sanders: let's kill ISIS, let's fix the economy.  corrupt campaign finance.

Clinton: root out violent jihadism.  Will lay out what to do to stop terrorism with allies.

O'Malley:  We can adapt and with others to kill the terrorists.  Fresh approach for policy.

IS flight is going badly, losing ground:

Clinton: IS must be defeated.  wah.  good grief.  US will not fight IS directly.  Help, but support, not American on ground. blames BUSH.  Then blames Iraqi leadership.  Says wanted to equip syrian rebels.  NOT America's fight.

O'Malley critique:   This is America's fight.  Must be with collaboration.  IS is evil.  failure of human intelligence.  role in world is be strong at home, but also to confront evil in the world.  america must rise to the occasion.

Sanders: climate change greatest threat even than IS.  The bulk of the responsibility is our fault, invasion of iraq caused this.  US cannot do this alone.  Lead international coalition inclusive of muslim nations.  Iraq invasion worst foreign policy decision in recent history.

Clinton: mumble, mumble, terrorism.  iraq invasion was mistake, but she still voted for it.

Sander criticism of sec state: disagreement with clinton.  regime change bad.  sanders is more conservative?!

O'Malley: needs better spies.

Clinton: defensive.  this is complicated.  blahblah.  US doesn't have a role in many of the Middle East conflicts.  this is complex esp in middle east.

Sanders:  ME very complicated, but with coalition needs to have Iran and other muslim war.  brushing over differences between sunnis and shiites.

Clinton: being unfair to jordan.  others like turkey need to clear up where they stand.

Libya, day after lesson:

Clinton:  Did have a plan.  but what out happened after?  I'd say she didn't think it through well.  She's sounding like the Friedman Gap guy.

O'Malley: Libya a mess, Iraq is a mess.  Afghanistan is a mess.  Syria is a mess.  US has greatest military.  bad at rebuilding nations.

Clinton: we did a BIG investment (but a shitty job).

Sanders:  long term consequences, PTSD and harmed soldiers.  Do NOT turn back on soldiers.

Rubio on radical islam:

Clinton:  wank.  can't handle radical islam label.  cannot understand IS or extremists.

Sanders: term isn't important.  groups want to go back to pre modern systems.

O'Malley: should be called radical jihadis.  American muslims are our first line of defense.

French President called this act of war, not declare war on IS:

Clinton: have authorization for  war on terrorism, not comfortable though for president to work without congress.

Refugees:

Sanders: most powerful military.  less than 10% on terrorism.  anti nukes.  major reform.  more cost effective.  cold war is over.  OMG.  this is stupid.  THe problem here is the strategic holiday is over.  stupid.

Sanders (refugees): moral requirement to help.

O'Malley: 65k refugees.  calls IS ISIL.  we can make room.  war has changed.  more special ops. 

Clinton (how to screen refugees to keep them safe): 65k if we can screen.  do need to take a look a hard look at defense budget.  challenges in south china sea.  problems with russia.  drone sub nuclear weapon cited (see tomorrow's blog here!)


BREAK.

Sanders seems to have missed the fact the world changed AGAIN with it comes to the military situation.  Clinton mentions Russia but doesn't mention Ukraine.  the Donbass war is heating up again (artillery, etc) and she's talking about a drone sub as the thing to worry about.  Yes, its a worry, but they are fighting on the ground.

Clinton's comment that this is NOT america's fight is a bad sound bite.


Financial squeeze on middle class:

Clinton (how to pay for social improvements):  not middle class do not pay!  good gawd.  the real incomes haven't increased since *1975* lady.  will tax rich and be fiscal responsible.

O'Malley (how to pay):  raise sales tax.  raised income tax for rich.  claims best schools in country.  eliminate entitlement: lower income for rich and capital gains.

Sanders:  redistribution of wealth in a bad way from middle class to 1%.  end corporate loopholes.  tax on wall street speculation.  (how high).  no exact number.  less than eisenhower.  less a socialism than Eisenhower!  wealthiest must pay enough.

O'Malley: top level tax udner Reagan was 70%.

health care rises:

Clinton: Obamacase good.  hrmphhrmph.  come on.  what will YOU do?  build on Obamacare and cost issues.  more competition in insurance market and down costs for prescription drugs.  different than Sanders.

Sanders: Obamacare good.  thinks it needs to go further.  needs to guarantee health care to everyone as a right, not privilege.

O'Malley: breaking rules.

BREAK.

Border securing/immigration:

O'Malley: talking about border security and not immigration reform for too long.  bashes Trump.  net immigration from Mexico last year was 0.  must allow pathway to citizenship.

Clinton (executive action):  president has authority that obama is trying to exercise.  path to citizenship allowed.

Sanders (wage issue, immigration, call for $15 min): wages are too low.  real income has radically lower.  living wages for the future the US.  there are consequences for any policy.  working people disposable income.

O'Malley: maryland passed living wage?

Sanders:  Living wage good.

Clinton: $12 national minimum wage.

DOG FIGHT.

BREAK:

whoa.  lots of breaks this time.

O'Malley isn't doing a bad job of tripping Clinton.  IDK how effective it is, but he's tripping her.


Clinton (can she be trusted because she got money from wall street): yes I can trusted really.  uh huh.  claims aggressive.  shadow banking.

Sanders: Clinton answer not good enough.



I just got done with the call.

What happened?

dang it.

I'll check out the replay on youtube later.

Live Blogging the Republican Debate (again)

Here we go again.  We have 8 candidates left now in the big kids table.

The economy is the focus for tonight.

Minimum wage first.

Trump: not sympathetic to minimum wage.  taxes too high.  raising it will make US uncompetitive.

Carson: going off topic.  gah.  everytime minimum wage raised, less jobs.  especially hurts black.  wages are to blame.  educate, don't raise minimum wage.

Rubio: a)  mumbling about his folks.  bah.  answer a question.  old or new. no raising the wage.  haha invokes robopocalypse!!!!  goes off topic again.  b) repeal obamacare. 

National Debt, how to cut government spending:

Kasich:  cut taxes, including business taxes.  hrm.  see website for details for tax reduction & balance budget.  move medicare growth from 7% to 5% growth.  freeze non defense discretionary spending.  do not freeze defense spending.

Recession expected, tax reform:

Cruz: economy most important.  snipes at Obama.  IMF wrong.  3 ways to make economy grow.  tax reform, 10% flat tax.  2nd, regulatory reform.  3rd sound money.  wuh?  Reagan had sound money.

Kasich: interrupted.  attacks value added tax.

40% Americans not looking for job.  what to change for 4% growth:

Bush: tax reform first.  corporate 20%.  regulatory repeal all of Obama's.  regulation of internet.  clean power.  waters of US.  repeal all because the cost is more than social benefit.  gets in a Clinton attack.  poverty.  I see some energy for a change.

Jobs under Obama, Bush, and Clinton:

Fiorina:  ... anecdote time.  ugh.  big government is bad.  politics is the big business.  five things.  zero base budgeting.  reform tax code (simple 3 pages).  total review of regulations.  have to hold gov employees accountable.  I missed one somewhere.

Income inequality:

Paul: does matter.  blames democrats.  ugh.  look for root causes.  blames federal reserve.  brings up negative interest.  republicans the heroes.  baaaah.


This feels like a Q&A rather than a debate.


Double Standards in Media:

Carson: all candidates should be vetted.  claims media is lying.  takes a shot at Clinton about Benghazi. 

Illegal Immigrants:

Trump:  loves the court decision.  claims illegal immigration is hurting everywhere.  blame the immigrant.  needs borders, giant wall in the south.  country of laws.  kick out the illegals and then allow people in legally.

Kasich: comments on Trump.  invokes Reagan.  claims Trump is ridiculous.  Put in the wall, but the 11M are staying here.

Trump:  invokes Ike.  bashes Kasich.

Bush: calls Trump nice.  12M.  to send them back is not possible.  not american.  Says Clinton loves the immigrant debate.  has a point.  says everyone ought to have a path.

Trump:  says its unfair to those trying to come in legally.

WHOA Robopocalypse question:

Rubio: calling this a transformation.  compares candy crush to telephone.  erm.  talks health care, reform, outdated higher education.  I think he's missing the point.

How can you reduce Entitlements, why?:

Cruz:  no changes for seniors, for younger workers different.  wants to talk immigration, anti immigration.  says illegals reduce wages.  legal immigration, not illegal.

How do we get rid of regulations, health care:

Fiorina: kill Obamacare.  her favourite words!  crony capitalism.  blames big government.  real free market for health care.  strokes her harp about her awesome.  secret sauce of america...uh.  yeah.  no comment.  kill regulation.  meritocracy.  loooves her some scott walker.  let states manage high risk pools.

Flat tax:

Carson: everyone should pay fairer.  Get rid of all deductions and loopholes.  does care about the poor.  rebate at the poverty level.  grow economy to fix poverty.

Will your budget crisis with your tax plan:

Paul:  wants to choke government.  part of a balanced budget plan.  claims 1% cut across the board will balance board.  14.5% for corp or people, no payroll tax.  home, mortage and charity deductions.

Explain your tax plan:

Cruz:  current system no fair.  more words in the tax code than the bible.  o.O  wtf does that have to do with the price of tea tax in china.  same flat tax for rich or poor.  corp get a flat tax.  kill irs.  look at website.  exporting corp/biz get tax exemption.

Tax reform, will you guarantee it:

Bush:  fight as hard as can.   dude.  real incomes are down a lot more than that.  look at the diff between 1975 and now.

 Tax plan, large expansion for child tax credit costs too much?:

Rubio: nonsense.  kids most important. this is pro family tax code.

Paul:  calls Rubio's kid tax credit a welfare.  calls him not tax.

Rubio:  this is payroll tax is people's money.

Paul/Rubio DOG FIGHT!

Paul: Calls Rubio liberal in spending.

Cruz:  national defense is affordable.  sugar subsidies, kill them.

Fiorina:  tax reform with zero base budgeting.  bucks the

Trump:  military bigger and stronger.  any republican tax plan.

TPP trade treaty:

Trump: bad deal.  helps China (wuh).  worst trade deal ever.  Trade is bad for the US.  China is NOT part of the TPP.  o.O  I cannot understand what he is talking about.  does he expect China to join the TPP then?

Paul:  POINT!  Points TPP doesn't include China.  Should negotiate from strength and claims congress is 'fixed.' in the vet sense.

Terrorist Attacks increased, support Obama or not in Syria, Afghanistan:

Carson: Special forces in syria good.  talks Putin, has to oppose Putin.  calls Obama's strategy ineffective.  Losers...uh.  Says to fight in Iraq to defeat IS.

Homeland security:

Bush: biggest threat.  bashes obama. create safe zones.

Is Russia top problem, what does pres trump do about Russia:

Trump:  says there are many problems.  likes Putin.  o.O  wtf.  For Russia's help against IS.  Ukraine, says Germany are sitting on their butt.  says we can't be police man of the world.

Bush: trump wrong.  calls Trump a board game player.

Trump: says Assad bad, but rebels no idea.  says look at the mess we've made in the middle east.  wtf.  these guy is ... whacked.

Fiorina:  not negotiate in weakness.  Mocks Trump.  rebuild military.  oppose Putin.  America must lead.

Putin/Syria/Iran:

Paul:  no fly zone, better realize we are saying we are going to fight the Russians.  mocks Fiorina for not talking to Russians.  Not arm IS.  takes a shot at McCain indirectly.  o.O  we didn't attack assad.

Rubio:  calls Putin to be mafia.  he's getting Putin.  frack.  o.O  Gets into the IS is coming for us thing again.

China, cyber attacks and Chinese investments, should we stop them:

Kasich: states cyber war could be used against China.  aggressive foreign policy.  for TPP.  compliments obama on south china sea.


break.  looks like there was some debate after all.  The control isn't perfect though by the moderators.  Trump tried to sound like he was the boss there.  Fiorina keeps jumping in.  Worrisome that it feels like Paul has given the most thought to his positions.  I disagree with them, but he's given some thought while the others don't seem to have.  Well, Rubio some.


 Would you bail out banks?

Bush: bashes dodd-frank.  raise capital requirements.  won't need to bailout banks.  says community banks getting trashed.  There are a lot less of those in california.  bashes clinton. 

break up banks?:

Carson: anti enlargement for big banks, corporations to grow.  avoiding breaking up banks question.  o.O  claims regulation is the problem.  o.O  regulations hurting real problem, not rich.  does not want to bust the bank trusts.

Rubio: gov made banks big.  regulations problem.

Kasich: wall street is too greedy. hahahahhaa.  that's what wall street has always been.  values first.

Would you go after wall street:

Cruz: will hunt wall street crooks. no bailing out the banks.  bashes fed.  gold bug.  gah.

Kasich:  mocks cruz.  mocks obama,  says congress running fed bad. 

Cruz/Kasich dog fight.

Fiorina jumps in!  Calls Dodd-frank is socialism.  gov caused real estate bubble. 

Clinton more experienced, why you better?:

Rubio:  pick based on future for the country.  answered q

Cruz:  bad policies under Clinton.

Overseas tax havens:

Trump:  10% tax on money come in.

Climate Change:

Paul:  repeal regs.  balance environment vs economy.  pro coal.

Bush: 10% carbon emissions thru fracking.



Fox just cut off climate change discussion.   talk about expected.




Closing Statements:

Paul:  We're best.  Only fiscal conservative.

Kasich:  worry about dem win.  traditional conservative.

Fiorina:  bashes Clinton.  vote me.

Bush:  vote me, support vets.

Cruz:  family story.  invokes saint reagan

Rubio:  Washington out of touch.  Republicans only can save america.  Vote me.

Carson:  America special.  nti PC.

Trump:  vote me.  I'm awesome.  bashes clinton.

Oy. Don't Vote for Dr Carson

epublican presidential candidate Ben Carson's recollection of being offered a scholarship to the prestigious U.S. Military Academy at West Point was questioned on Friday, potentially damaging the credibility of the 64-year-old retired neurosurgeon.

Also on Friday, Carson's account of how he attempted to stab a friend in his troubled youth came under renewed scrutiny.

Carson, a favorite of conservative activists, who is tied with Donald Trump at the top of Republican primary polls a year before the November 2016 presidential election, has often recounted both tales from his 1990 autobiography on the campaign trail, as he trumpets his rise from poverty in inner-city Detroit to the highest echelons of medicine.

Questions about Carson's account of the West Point scholarship came to the fore after a report by political news website Politico on differing accounts of the scholarship.

On Friday, Carson's campaign said he never sought admission to West Point, and Carson himself angrily denied suggestions that he had misrepresented the facts surrounding the West Point overture.

link.

US presidential hopeful Ben Carson has attracted attention and some ridicule this week for saying Egypt's pyramids were built to store grain. As most schoolchildren know, they were actually tombs for pharaohs. But where did the granary idea come from, and would it even have worked?

Egyptian history isn't something American presidential candidates are usually quizzed about on the campaign trail, but this week Republican Ben Carson faced a barrage of questions after it emerged he believed the pyramids were built by the Biblical figure Joseph for storing grain.

This was revealed on Wednesday when Buzzfeed published a video of Carson addressing students at a Michigan university affiliated with his Seventh-day Adventist Church 17 years ago. But the famed neurosurgeon, currently the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, told inquisitive journalists that his views had not changed.

link.

In March of last year, Dr. Ben Carson, the conservative star considered a potential 2016 Republican presidential candidate, appeared in a video for Mannatech, Inc., a Texas-based medical supplement maker. Smiling into the camera, he extolled the benefits of the company’s “glyconutrient” products:

The wonderful thing about a company like Mannatech is that they recognize that when God made us, He gave us the right fuel. And that fuel was the right kind of healthy food. You know we live in a society that is very sophisticated, and sometimes we’re not able to achieve the original diet. And we have to alter our diet to fit our lifestyle. Many of the natural things are not included in our diet. Basically what the company is doing is trying to find a way to restore natural diet as a medicine or as a mechanism for maintaining health.

Carson’s interactions with Mannatech, a nutritional-supplement company based in suburban Dallas, date back to 2004, when he was a speaker at the company’s annual conferences, MannaFest and MannaQuest. He also spoke at Mannatech conferences in 2011 and 2013, and spoke about “glyconutrients” in a PBS special as recently as last year.

Mannatech has a long, checkered past, stretching back to its founding more than a decade before Carson began touting the company’s supplements. It was started by businessman Samuel L. Caster in late 1993, mere “months,” the Wall Street Journal later noted, before Congress passed the Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act of 1994, which greatly loosened restrictions on how supplement makers could market their products. Within a few years of its inception, the company was marketing a wide variety of “glyconutrient” products using many of the same tactics previously described in lawsuits against Eagle Shield, Caster’s first company.

link.

Noel Maurer Asks: Could Bernie Saunders Win the Presidential Election?

Yes. It would be hard, but it is not science fiction.

An earlier post showed how many states Bernie Sanders would win in an absolute general election wipeout. In reality, such a wipeout is impossible. Consider the strongest post-1980 Republican candidacies in each major demographic group. In 1984, Ronald Reagan won 66% of the white vote. Robert Dole won 12% of the black vote. (Actually, Ford won 17% in 1976 and Reagan got 14% in 1980, but no Republican has come that close since.) George W. Bush won 44% of the Latino vote and 43% of Asian-Americans. If our hypothetical Rubio campaign managed to match all those numbers against Sanders, he would get only 55% of the vote. If he matched all those numbers and managed to get minority turnout back to 2004 levels he would get 56%. Now that is a big margin, but it is not 59%.

Moreover, no Republican is going to get 44% of the Latino vote in 2016. Maybe if immigration reform has passed, but that ship has sailed. Even Rubio would do well to match John McCain, which would give him an eight-point margin against Sanders; ten points if minority turnout collapses.

link.

Return to the Eternal Unanswerables: Puerto Rico's Status

“For over a century, the people of Puerto Rico and the United States have woven a lasting political, economic, social, and cultural relationship. Today, this relationship is strengthened and renewed by more than four million U.S. citizens who call Puerto Rico home and nearly equal number of Puerto Ricans living on the mainland who travel back to Puerto Rico for business, vacation, or visits to see family and friends,” Obama said in a letter released with the report. “We honor their contributions to the nation and welcome their vigorous participation in helping to develop, shape, and implement the recommendations presented in this report.”

The 122-page report places an emphasis on the island’s economic and social issues, but opens with a 7-point series of recommendations on Puerto Rico’s century-old status dilemma.

[...]

The Task Force recommends that all relevant parties — the president, Congress, and the leadership and people of Puerto Rico — statehood, independence, free association, and commonwealth — and have that will acted upon by the end of 2012 or soon thereafter.

The Task Force leans slightly toward a two-tier plebiscite process that “allows the people of Puerto Rico first to vote on the question of whether they wish to be part of the United States or wish to be independent, and then to choose between the avail­able status options, as limited by the outcome of the first vote.”

“If the process produces a clear result, Congress should act on it quickly with the president’s support,” the Task Force said.

In a position that is sure to ruffle some feathers, the Task Force recommends that only residents of Puerto Rico should be eligible to vote in a status plebiscite.

dundundun.

Here we go again.