"Late Antique Little Ice Age" Contributed to Decline of Eastern Roman Empire, Bolstered Arab Conquests?

Researchers from the international Past Global Changes (PAGES) project write in the journal Nature Geoscience that they have identified an unprecedented, long-lasting cooling in the northern hemisphere 1500 years ago. The drop in temperature immediately followed three large volcanic eruptions in quick succession in the years 536, 540 and 547 AD (also known as the Common Era CE). Volcanoes can cause climate cooling by ejecting large volumes of small particles - sulfate aerosols - that enter the atmosphere blocking sunlight.

Within five years of the onset of the "Late Antique Little Ice Age", as the researchers have dubbed it, the Justinian plague pandemic swept through the Mediterranean between 541 and 543 AD, striking Constantinople and killing millions of people in the following centuries. The authors suggest these events may have contributed to the decline of the eastern Roman Empire.

Lead author, dendroclimatologist Ulf Büntgen from the Swiss Federal Research Institute said, "This was the most dramatic cooling in the Northern Hemisphere in the past 2000 years."

A later "Little Ice Age" between 14th and 19th centuries has been well documented and linked to political upheavals and plague pandemics in Europe, but the new study is the first to provide a comprehensive climate analysis across both Central Asia and Europe during this earlier period.

"With so many variables, we must remain cautious about environmental cause and political effect, but it is striking how closely this climate change aligns with major upheavals across several regions," added Büntgen.

The multidisciplinary research team made up of climatologists, naturalists, historians and linguists mapped the new climate information against a particularly turbulent period in history in Europe and central Asia. The volcanic eruptions probably affected food supplies - a major famine struck the region at precisely this time followed immediately by the pandemic.

Further south, the Arabian Peninsula received more rain allowing more vegetation to grow. The researchers speculate this may have driven expansion of the Arab Empire in the Middle East because the vegetation would have sustained larger herds of camels used by the Arab armies for their campaigns.

In cooler areas, several tribes migrated east towards China, possibly driven away by a lack of pastureland in central Asia. This led to hostilities between nomadic groups and the local ruling powers in the steppe regions of northern China. An alliance between these steppe populations and the Eastern Romans brought down the Sasanian Empire in Persia, the final empire in the region before the rise of the Arab Empire.

The researchers write, "The Late Antique Little Ice Age fits in well with the main transformative events that occurred in Eurasia during that time."

link.

Alternate History: Irene Doesn't Cancel Rotrude and Constanstine's Engagement

One of the things I really enjoy is history.  Its something a story, a story of us all, with path ways none of us have explored, or if we have, there's always another point of view to take.  One of the tools for examining history which has appealed to my world building imagination is that of alternate history.  Through the pretty much defunct usenet group soc.history.what-if, I picked up some online friends which have opened my techie eyes to many, many more facets to history and the world around.

Recently, I've been extremely caught up in the techie world and events half a world away, but I thought I'd take a breather here and revisit the allohistorical.  So, for a moment, let's delve into a what-if that had the potential to change a lot, but probably would not have changed as much as some would think.

Let's tun back the clocks and take a look at the year 787.  It was an unfortunate year.  The Empress Regent of the Rump Roman, ahem, Byzantine Empire would end the engagement of her son, the future Constantine VI, to Rotrude, the daughter of Charlemagne.  Subsequently, the next year the Franks, or rather Charlemagne's army in the Adriatic, would turn on the Byzantines.  They would take Istria (in modern Croatia) and Benevento (Italy) from the Byzantines.

The consequences of breaking off the engagement seem to have been bad and were probably related to the fact Charlemagne was something of a sexist pig and didn't respect a woman on the throne.  Despite the fact Irene was a capable a ruler.  Part, too, may have been tied into Irene's attempt to negotiate a marriage between her and Charlemagne.  That ended in complete failure.  The combination or intertwining of the two was probably the cause and the end of the potential alliance between the man who Pope Leo would crown Roman Emperor and Rump of the Roman Empire itself. 

Let's say, for the moment, Irene does not attempt to negotiate the marriage between herself and Charlemagne.  She realizes even under the best of circumstances it'd be a disaster if it worked and would be a sore point, at best, if it did not.  She does want the alliance between the Franks and the Byzantines, so she does engage her son to Rotrude and she does not break off the engagement between her son and Charlemagne's daughter: after all, Constantine was against breaking off the engagement.  

So, the marriage goes ahead and in 790, Constantine (19) and Rotrude (15, nicknamed Erythro (red) by the Byzantines) are married in Constantinople.   Two of her brothers accompany her, Pepin (19, King of Italy) and Louis (12, King of Aquitaine).  Charlemagne would keep Charles back in the empire just in case something went wrong since Charles was to be his probable heir.

Constantine was far from what a middle class American would call a good man, but he could when he wanted to roll out the charm.  In this case, he would take pains to impress his new brothers in law and work to bond with them as strongly as he could.  Pepin he impressed as a buddy and friend, but with Louis he'd get a little bit of the idol worship going.

Constantine had tried to convince Pepin to join him for the campaign against the Bulgars he was planning.  Unfortunately, Pepin was already planning a campaign against the Avars and could not participate.  He would, in time, work with Constantine, but not on the first joint campaign.  Rather, it would fatefully be Louis who offered.

The Byzantine campaign against the Bulgars would be delayed and in 792 the army would march out much as in our time line.  However, this time a contingent of Franks under Louis would be present: 500 cavalry and 1000 foot.  The force would meet the Bulgars at Marcellae.  The battle would start to unfold much as it did our own; however, Constantine was wary of risking his now 14 year old brother in law and also was almost as concerned about sharing the victory: he wanted the victory to be decisively his own.  He placed Louis' cavalry as a rear guard and Louis' infantry he left protecting the train and fortress.  The Bulgars came boiling out of the flank and attacked.  Louis was right in the way.  He and his cavalry fought valiantly, but were forced to retreat when threatened with encirclement.  They ran back to the infantry and made a stand at the fortress.  Here they frustrated the Bulgars until the Byzantines could return.  And that they did catching the Bulgars between the anvil of the fortress and the hammer of Constantine's forces.  Kardam and Telerig, the khans of the Bulgars, was captured.  Sensing the opportunity, Constantine would march to Pliska and sack the city while the Bulgarian Empire was in disarray.  While on the return march, Constantine would take Varna and make the city into a Byzantine stronghold.  A tenth of the spoils, Constantine would send off with Louis and most of that would go to Aachen. Kardem would be released and would pay tribute for the next six years.  Telerig was executed.  As a consequence, Kardem moved the Bulgarian capital north of the Danube, close to modern Bucharest.  That is not to say the Bulgarian ceded everything south of the Danube, but it would give the Byzantines some momentum in reclaiming territory long lost.

Constantine would make sure the world knew he was the victor and while Louis played a role, he was very much a minor player.  He did enough to sooth the young Louis, but would make sure to have Louis leave as soon as possible.  He actually went as far as to escort Louis to Pepin's lands in Italy where Constantine and Pepin would meet, booze and conduct diplomacy while Louis made his way back to Aquitaine.  Constantine had a problem: his mother.  She was still his co-emperor and a major thorn in his side.  He could not kill her, but needed to be rid of her.  A deal was struck: Irene would be virtually exiled, but not called as such.  She would be sent to Rome itself to govern to help protect the Pope, who was friendly with both the Carolginians and the Byzantines with two small forces of Franks and Byzantines.

Louis would call on Constantine's help in turn.  In 797, the city of Barcelona rebelled against the Muslims and swore to the Franks.  Louis was mustering the Frankish soldiery against the Muslims for a campaign, but was concerned the Muslims would retake the city before he was ready.  Constantine would attack from the sea in a surprise Tarragona and Tortosa after reestablishing a naval base in Palma.  He could not hold those cities and would not even try.  He'd put up a resistance to the Muslims for two or three months, then bargain his exit for payment, fattening his treasuries and buying Louis time.  Just as he surrendered Tarragona, rather than sail back to Palma, he turned south and repeated his obnoxiousness at Denia and he would raid, but not take, Valencia.  This would force the Muslims south again and, again, he'd evacuate under the banner of bribery.  His campaign would last a little over a year, but by then, Louis would pass through the Pyrenees to defend Barcelona (successfully) and even taking Tarragona and Zaragoza.  Alphonso II also led an invasion from the north and took Lisbon and Toledo from the overextended Corbodans.

Constantine would neither hold Majorica (it and Minorca would revolt after he left) nor would he keep any territory from his supportive raids.  He did return with gold, a fair amount of it, and turned a profit from the venture, a significant one.  He would turn and squander it, unfortunately.  He erected a monument in Constantinople and then would go off to take Cyprus, expelling the Arabs in 802.

He and Pepin would launch a joint campaign into the Balkans.  Pepin would secure the Croats and Constantine, the Serbs in 809.

Ironically, Rotrude and Irene had grown close.  Rotrude had successfully bore Constantine a large number of children.  Except except when he was on campaign, they had a very active reproductive life.  Before the Spanish Campaign, she would bare him three children: two sons and a daughter.  Two who made it to adulthood, including the next emperor, Leo V (791) and daughter, Irene (795).  When he returned, she would bare another two children, one who would live to adulthood (another daughter, Maria (801)).  When Constantine returned from conquering Cyprus, she would have another three children, two sons (Constantine (804) and Karolos (806)) living to adulthood.  And when he returned from the Balkans, she would have two more children, a son and daughter, both living to adulthood (Loudovíkos (813) and Erythro (811)).  Unfortunately, her last son and his birth, would kill her.  She would pass away at age 38 in 813.

However, she was an intelligent woman in her own right and felt stymied as the empress.  Irene understood.  She helped Rotrude fit into Byzantine society and Rotrude would in turn become a patroness of learning and monasteries.  Interestingly, it was actually Rotrude's sponsorship of copyists of various manuscripts which would make the biggest impact.  She would have monks copying books of all kinds and even gifted her father numerous books circa 810 - three years before her death - and the Pope.  The former had far more impact than the latter, inserting several greek books into the Carolingian Renaissance and effectively doubly the size of the libraries in the West. 

When Irene was sent off to govern Rome proper, Rotrude stepped in to support her husband.  She was considered an outsider and not much of a threat, but she used that to her advantage and thwarted several attempts to usurp her husband while he was out campaigning.

Rotrude and Constantine, surprisingly in some ways, had been a good match.  She had tempered his nasty nature and given him an outlet.  However, when she passed, Constantine's darker side grew stronger. 

Without her tempering and in his grief, he became cruel and petty.  He blinded and mutilated those who challenged him.  An official he caught stealing from the imperial treasury, he tortured and then poured molten gold down his throat.  He would severely beat his daughter, Maria, until Leo intervened to stop him.  Leo would step in to be the guardian of his younger siblings.  Something which would end up being a positive turn for the empire, but that would be in the future when Leo V would appoint Constantine Strategos Autokrator of the Danube and Karolos the same for the Palestine, non reality, but useful ruse.

However, their father, Constantine VI would be turned from inflicting himself on the capital to attempting to take back territories in the east and to end the Arab raids into Anatolia.  He would retake Antioch and it would remain held.  He would march east to take Aleppo and Edessa as well.  He would be marching back from the campaign escorting the Image of Edessa to Constantinople when his army was surprised by a Muslim army. 

In the ensuing wild melee, Constantine was killed.  Leo would emerge a hero, publicly, and ascend the throne.  Some would whisper he'd had his father killed.  All the better, in some ways, for those who plot to fear him.  And for those who don' to love him.

But, Leo's reign would be a different one.  And a different tale for another time.

Justinian Plague Confirmed to be the Bubonic Plague (ie Black Death)

Ancient DNA analyses of skeletal remains of plague victims from the 6th century AD provide information about the phylogeny and the place of origin of this pandemic

From the several pandemics generally called 'pestilences' three are historically recognized as due to plague, but only for the third pandemic of the 19th to 21st centuries AD there were microbiological evidences that the causing agent was the bacterium Yersinia pestis. "For a long time scholars from different disciplines have intensively discussed about the actual etiological agents of the past pandemics. Only ancient DNA analyses carried out on skeletal remains of plague victims could finally conclude the debate", said Dr. Barbara Bramanti of the Palaeogenetics Group at the Institute of Anthropology at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU). About two years ago, she headed the international team which demonstrated beyond any doubt that Y. pestis also caused the second pandemic of the 14th-17th centuries including the Black Death, the infamous epidemic that ravaged Europe from 1346 to 1351. Bramanti and her Mainz colleague Stephanie Hänsch now cooperated with the University of Munich, the German Bundeswehr, and international scholars to solve the debate as to whether Y. pestis caused the so-called Justinianic Plague of the 6th to 8th centuries AD. The results of ancient DNA analyses carried out on the early medieval cemetery of Aschheim in Bavaria were published last week in PloS Pathogens. They confirmed unambiguously that Y. pestis was indeed the causing agent of the first pandemic, in contrast to what has been postulated by other scientists recently. This revolutionary result is supported by the analysis of the genotype of the ancient strain which provide information about the phylogeny and the place of origin of this plague. As for the second and third pandemic, the original sources of the plague bacillus were in Asia.

Romano-Byzantine Empire Declines Due to Climate Change?!

The decline of the Roman and Byzantine Empires in the Eastern Mediterranean more than 1,400 years ago may have been driven by unfavorable climate changes.

Based on chemical signatures in a piece of calcite from a cave near Jerusalem, a team of American and Israeli geologists pieced together a detailed record of the area's climate from roughly 200 B.C. to 1100 A.D. Their analysis, to be reported in an upcoming issue of the journal Quaternary Research, reveals increasingly dry weather from 100 A.D. to 700 A.D. that coincided with the fall of both Roman and Byzantine rule in the region.

The researchers, led by University of Wisconsin-Madison geology graduate student Ian Orland and professor John Valley, reconstructed the high-resolution climate record based on geochemical analysis of a stalagmite from Soreq Cave, located in the Stalactite Cave Nature Reserve near Jerusalem.

"It looks sort of like tree rings in cross-section. You have many concentric rings and you can analyze across these rings, but instead of looking at the ring widths, we're looking at the geochemical composition of each ring," says Orland.

Using oxygen isotope signatures and impurities — such as organic matter flushed into the cave by surface rain — trapped in the layered mineral deposits, Orland determined annual rainfall levels for the years the stalagmite was growing, from approximately 200 B.C. to 1100 A.D.

While cave formations have previously been used as climate indicators, past analyses have relied on relatively crude sampling tools, typically small dental drills, which required averaging across 10 or even 100 years at a time. The current analysis used an advanced ion microprobe in the Wisconsin Secondary-Ion Mass-Spectrometer (Wisc-SIMS) laboratory to sample spots just one-hundredth of a millimeter across. That represents about 100 times sharper detail than previous methods. With such fine resolution, the scientists were able to discriminate weather patterns from individual years and seasons.

Their detailed climate record shows that the Eastern Mediterranean became drier between 100 A.D. and 700 A.D., a time when Roman and Byzantine power in the region waned, including steep drops in precipitation around 100 A.D. and 400 A.D. "Whether this is what weakened the Byzantines or not isn't known, but it is an interesting correlation," Valley says. "These things were certainly going on at the time that those historic changes occurred."

hmmmm...