Thursday, May 12, 2005

Is Belarus Next?

The Russians are showing some of their classic paranoia. They're making the accusation that the NGOs (Non Government Organizations) and youth groups that receive foreign funding are actually fronts for foreign intelligence agencies. The point of the foreign intelligence agencies doing this is to weaken Russia's influence on the area. This is to happen through producing more revolutions like what happened in Georgia and Ukraine. The NGOs and youth groups were, in fact, instrumental in those situations. However, the assumption that its a 'Russia-vs-The West' situation is rather Cold War-ish by some of the Russians. :S

Some of Russians I suspect are salivating about the idea that Putin countered for Lukashenko's for the Nov-USSR that Belarus just be annxed to Russia. If a color coated revolution comes to Belarus, that gets chucked out the door as Belarus would start the road - and it'd be an extremely long one even compared to Ukraine's - to being a part of the EU.

I suspect that a color of your choice revolution will come to Belarus. What happens afterwards ought to be...interesting. If for nothing else, because the EU will be on Russia's border and Russia reacts rather badly to major foreign powers there.

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