Thursday, October 08, 2015

False Prophets Strike Again: China is Selling off US Debt to Support Yuan *NOT* Causing American Economic Disaster

Remember the dire threat posed by our financial dependence on China? A few years ago it was all over the media, generally stated not as a hypothesis but as a fact. Obviously, terrible things would happen if China stopped buying our debt, or worse yet, started to sell off its holdings. Interest rates would soar and the U.S economy would plunge, right? Indeed, that great monetary expert Admiral Mullen was widely quoted as declaring that debt was our biggest security threat. Anyone who suggested that we didn’t actually need to worry about a China selloff was considered weird and irresponsible.

Well, don’t tell anyone, but the much-feared event is happening now. As China tries to prop up the yuan in the face of capital flight, it’s selling lots of U.S. debt; so are other emerging markets. And the effect on U.S. interest rates so far has been … nothing.

1 comment:

3de8af9a-85a1-11e4-b784-0b02f2c1f23a said...

I dunno, these economic processes seem to take a time scale of months. I would think it's still too early to detect the presence or absence of an effect. On the other hand, that debt has to go somewhere, but it's not like they've sold all of it.