The DNR launched an attack north of Shirokyne in a village called Novolaspa. They loss at least a few BTRs and the Ukrainian army launched a counterattack. The DNR was forced out or Novolaspa and the Ukrainians captured a fair amount of intelligence from the captured HQ. The Ukrainians then withdrew. The reason? Novolaspa is on the other side of the contact line and being there would be a violation of the Minsk Accords.
The attack was exactly where it was expected. Immediately before and continuing since has bene a massive bombardment up and down the contact line. The heaviest appears to be in Gorlovka. The number GRAD MLRS being reported fired is enormous. Heavy artillery is also being used (122mm and 155mm).
Fighting was not limited to the southern reaches of the Donetsk Oblast. Another tank battle took place in the Lugansk Oblast. I have not located an exact locale, unfortunately. At least an infantry action, if not combined arms took place around Maryinka. Numerous other, smaller actions were reported.
The Orcs, as the locals are calling the Donnie Rebs (yes, really), are very scarce within Gorlovka now. This has been reported from numerous villages, towns and cities along the contact line within the DNR. Everyone from that side is speculating the DNR is getting ready to go on an offensive themselves and moved their troops to do so.
Fighting was not limited to the southern reaches of the Donetsk Oblast. Another tank battle took place in the Lugansk Oblast. I have not located an exact locale, unfortunately. At least an infantry action, if not combined arms took place around Maryinka. Numerous other, smaller actions were reported.
The Orcs, as the locals are calling the Donnie Rebs (yes, really), are very scarce within Gorlovka now. This has been reported from numerous villages, towns and cities along the contact line within the DNR. Everyone from that side is speculating the DNR is getting ready to go on an offensive themselves and moved their troops to do so.
The DNR announcement to the residents within the DNR of an expected Ukrainian offensive which was supposed to start on the 11th. Certainly hints at that the DNR is going to start attacking on a sustained level. This has been their modus operandi after all.
The OSCE, just before the latest fighting, had their cars torched in Donetsk. I think I read multiple accounts of this happening in places, but this may be just me misremembering. This prevents the observers from seeing what's going on.
The Ukrainians have informed the OSCE they will move their weapons forward if there is another attack. This indicates the fighting is about to resume. OTOH, Poroshenko has been calling for a stop and to meet for negotiations. OTGH, noone has forgotten how the Russians duped the Georgians into attacking Ossetia.
The Europeans stated that the fighting was a violation of the Minsk II agreement. The US was deeply concerned. The OSCE has stated the fighting has increased despite not being able to observe much of it directly.
All of this points to a major offensive coming about. The fact the DNR attacked where it was expected indicates the DNR was trying to draw attention to the south. Remember the Russians believe in Maskirovka with a vengeance when it comes to warfare (misdirection). If the troops were meant to be drawn south because Mariupol is threatened, then Gorlovka would make for a great place to launch the offensive from.
However! The Ukrainian military refused to commit the 'volunteer battalions' during the recent fighting. They were held in reserve. The fact they were not would imply the Ukrainians are not falling for the DNR ruse, if it is one.
Something which is not being said is 50% more Ukrainian soldiers have died in the fighting in the Donbass than Americans have in Afghanistan. This is not a ceasefire. This is a war. Albeit one where the front lines seem to be taking their cues from the First World War. This seems to be coming to an end. Or at least there seems to be an attempt to probe to see if it can end.
You're immediately thinking that I have predicted this before. However, it appears the weather has intervened during the summer. There were significant floods in the Donbass multiple times during this summer. The muck, in part, seemed to return. Recently, though, the weather seems to cooperating more. This might be part of what's going on.
Let's wait and see over the next few days. This may be what happened earlier before the floods in Maryinka: a flash in the pan. This might be something else.
Russia has gone off to do something a little odd: they have been very publicly destroying smuggled food. They claim it is because the food doesn't have source or labels for where it came from and therefore is a public health problem. Why they chose to destroy it publicly though...well...it has turned into an internal public relations disaster. the RUSSIAN people are getting upset. Yet, the government continues to burn the food in public:
The OSCE, just before the latest fighting, had their cars torched in Donetsk. I think I read multiple accounts of this happening in places, but this may be just me misremembering. This prevents the observers from seeing what's going on.
The Ukrainians have informed the OSCE they will move their weapons forward if there is another attack. This indicates the fighting is about to resume. OTOH, Poroshenko has been calling for a stop and to meet for negotiations. OTGH, noone has forgotten how the Russians duped the Georgians into attacking Ossetia.
The Europeans stated that the fighting was a violation of the Minsk II agreement. The US was deeply concerned. The OSCE has stated the fighting has increased despite not being able to observe much of it directly.
All of this points to a major offensive coming about. The fact the DNR attacked where it was expected indicates the DNR was trying to draw attention to the south. Remember the Russians believe in Maskirovka with a vengeance when it comes to warfare (misdirection). If the troops were meant to be drawn south because Mariupol is threatened, then Gorlovka would make for a great place to launch the offensive from.
However! The Ukrainian military refused to commit the 'volunteer battalions' during the recent fighting. They were held in reserve. The fact they were not would imply the Ukrainians are not falling for the DNR ruse, if it is one.
Something which is not being said is 50% more Ukrainian soldiers have died in the fighting in the Donbass than Americans have in Afghanistan. This is not a ceasefire. This is a war. Albeit one where the front lines seem to be taking their cues from the First World War. This seems to be coming to an end. Or at least there seems to be an attempt to probe to see if it can end.
You're immediately thinking that I have predicted this before. However, it appears the weather has intervened during the summer. There were significant floods in the Donbass multiple times during this summer. The muck, in part, seemed to return. Recently, though, the weather seems to cooperating more. This might be part of what's going on.
Let's wait and see over the next few days. This may be what happened earlier before the floods in Maryinka: a flash in the pan. This might be something else.
Russia has gone off to do something a little odd: they have been very publicly destroying smuggled food. They claim it is because the food doesn't have source or labels for where it came from and therefore is a public health problem. Why they chose to destroy it publicly though...well...it has turned into an internal public relations disaster. the RUSSIAN people are getting upset. Yet, the government continues to burn the food in public:
Burning all the salo in public in Ukraine would have started a revolution!
3 comments:
Thanks for making the time to do this. Your knowledge of the territory and understanding of the weapons/tactics employed combine to make this site the best Ukraine war coverage I’ve yet encountered. (Searching for this sort of info is how I discovered your blog, though I lately find myself oddly fascinated with mass extinction events ;-)
Seconded, Anonymous!
Thanks, folks.
It kills me to see the situation.
I loved Crimea and obviously I will never return now barring a miracle and it being returned to Ukraine. Though I have to admit, I rather prefer sand beaches to stone ones! oy.
The situation in Gorlovka and Donetsk is worse. Heart-breakingly worse. And its not going to improve, never mind end, any time soon.
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