Sunday, August 23, 2015

Ukraine War Update: лягушачий, стук перед наброситься?

After days of a comparative, but not complete lull in the artillery bombardments and infantry skirmishes, the Ukrainian frontline has opened up.  Artillery is lashing from one end to the other.

Today seems to have something of an interesting twist.  The power is being reported as taken out at several locales.  This happens occasionally.  However, this time its happening in several places all at once.  The informal network of reporters in the eastern Ukraine, intentionally or otherwise, are being forced off-line as a result.  This may be an unintended consequence, but on the other hand, it almost makes sense.

The DNR has reported Ukraine will be bombarding Donetsk with heavy rockets tomorrow (today for those in Ukraine reading this).  I've seen several references claiming Donnie Reb even knows the time of day.  Again, ominous, given their past pronunciations and then the subsequent events.

 In support of the reasons to be concerned, the DNR and LNR have been moving a lot of equipment up to the front.  Tanks have been crossing from the Russian border with increasing frequency, even sending some of the more recent tank designs (T-90s, frex).  500 new Russians showed up in Lugansk and were signed up for the LNR forces.  Russian standard jamming equipment has shown up all along the front line now.

Rumors are suggesting keeping an eye on the Zholobok area on the contact line between the LNR & Ukraine.

Rumors are also DNR Leader Zakharchenko and family are missing. It IS August. On the other hand, it was an unannounced disappearance and with the claims the Ukrainians are going to attack more than a little odd.

Tomorrow (Today for those of you in Ukraine reading this) is Ukraine's Independence Day.  Some say this is the reason for the flair up.  The DNR/LNR are trying to 'ruin' the day.  Others are saying the DNR is planning an offensive.  we shall see.

As an interesting note, one of the unintended consequences is all the tourists who would have gone to Crimea are hitting up Odessa instead.  Those Ukrainians and Russians with money are generally leaving for Western Europe instead though.  Crimea still claims they will have three million visitors.  Very few seem to remotely believe that number.

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