There has been a lot going on. There have actually been some good developments. However, there have been humiliations and a new threat.
First off, the IMF and Ukraine seem to have reached a deal. The amount to be loaned is supposed to be $15 billion. The Japanese have announced they will loan $1.5 billion as well (contingent to the IMF deal going through). With the previously promised amounts, we have now exceeded $35 billion. This is good news. But it comes with some pain.
The IMF required Ukraine to end subsidies on a lot of things and other reforms. One of them is the cost of consumer gas. That will rise 50% in price in May. That will hurt the average Ukrainian.
The East and south have been rounding up the trouble makers, arresting many of the separatist leaders and the protests for Russian integration/intervention have been dwindling in size.
The Russians are paying substantially for their acquisition of Crimea: $70 billion have left Russia already in the first quarter and more, a lot more soon. Its not as bad as the amoutn siphoned off by Yanukovich et al percentage wise from Ukraine, but still enough to hurt. And its going to hurt more.
The West is getting set to do another round of sanctions on the Russians. As I said, this will hurt even more.
On the bad side...
The Russians have finished capturing the Ukrainian navy. They have started releasing Ukrainian troops to go to the mainland. They claim to have had 50% of them flip sides to the Russian military. The Russians also have increased the number of troops on the eastern border.
There have been more than one claim the Russians, if they are going to, will have to intervene before the end of May.
Now the new threat. That is Trident on Trident violence.
Oleksandr Muzychko was killed by police. He was far from a hero and was threatening the new government and was accused of war crimes in Chechnya against captured Russian troops. However, his death could trigger a backlash against the government from the 'Right Sector.'
Likewise the Marines I had been praising so much in Feodosia are pissed off. They were about to leave, surrendering their base, when the Russians swooped in. Despite some personal apologies from the Russian troops ("Sorry, brother."), the Marines were humiliated. Some of them have been saying when they get back to the mainland, they will storm the defense ministry's HQ. While I've commented before on Ukrainians seemingly lacking much filter between their brains and mouths, that's a scary prospect.
Why? And that would give Russia EXACTLY the pretext they need to intervene. I hope the Marines and the Right Sector realize that...and refrain from rash actions. You're getting damned close to being on course for Europe. Hang on guys!
Oleksandr Muzychko was killed by police. He was far from a hero and was threatening the new government and was accused of war crimes in Chechnya against captured Russian troops. However, his death could trigger a backlash against the government from the 'Right Sector.'
Likewise the Marines I had been praising so much in Feodosia are pissed off. They were about to leave, surrendering their base, when the Russians swooped in. Despite some personal apologies from the Russian troops ("Sorry, brother."), the Marines were humiliated. Some of them have been saying when they get back to the mainland, they will storm the defense ministry's HQ. While I've commented before on Ukrainians seemingly lacking much filter between their brains and mouths, that's a scary prospect.
Why? And that would give Russia EXACTLY the pretext they need to intervene. I hope the Marines and the Right Sector realize that...and refrain from rash actions. You're getting damned close to being on course for Europe. Hang on guys!
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