Ukraine War Update: сумасшедшая Лягушка

Ukraine: Patterns of Slow Progress Weaved With Dismay and Hope

There seems to be progress once more on in the Donbass in Ukraine.

The Ukrainians have taken Panteleimonivka near Gorlovka and Donetsk.  My guess is they will head to Korsun next.  Supposedly, the lines of communication have been cut between Gorlovka and Donetsk.  Based on the roads, this looks like why.

There are confusing reports whether or not they have also taken Miusynsk. The Ukrainian armed forces have entered at least. This is between Snizhne and Krasnyi Luch on the H21 highway. The goal is obviously to take Krasnyi Luch.  The LNR may be trying to breakthrough to the DNR.  The DNR, specifically Strelkov, has been pleading for help, stating the Ukrainians are about to crush his forces.  This may who is contesting Miusynk.

There are also confusing reports as to whether or not Mariinka has been taken from the DNR.  Its been reported as taken before. 

Fortunately, most of the Ukrainian soldiers who crossed into Russia have been repatriated.  The OSCE escorted them back.  Rumors are that 36 of the soldiers have been retained.  Despite what you see in the Russo-apologist sphere, they were not there to defect. Why the Russians let them go...is a bit of a head scratcher.

Borodai has resigned as the DNR's Prime minister in favour of someone who is actually Ukrainian. Zakharchenko is supposed to be taking his place. This may be a gambit to get the locals to accept the DNR.  This strongly implies the DNR is on is very last legs. 

Canada is sending more equipment for the Ukrainians.

Unfortunately, the  an Mi-8 helicopter (supposedly a medevac) and a Mig-29 were shot down today. 

Equally, unfortunately, the Maidan and Kiev government are clashing.  Independence Square is being cleared - often by ex euromaidan who became soldiers - and the Euromaidan activists are fighting back.  Though it seems halfheartedly. 

The Russians continue to pour in equipment and artillery fire into Ukraine. 

There are strong rumors the Russians are going to invade.  Supposedly tomorrow.  NATO has been concerned about this too.

Ukraine: a New, Hopeful Pattern

I chose the wrong time going on vacation!  A lot has happened in Ukraine.  A lot which is hopeful.  if you are a Ukrainian Nationalist at least.

The Ukrainians have taken Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Riznykivka, Artemivsk, Kostyantynivka, Semenivka & Druzhkivka, in Donetsk Oblast.

The Ukrainians have taken Zakotne, Raygorodka, RaiOleksandrivka & Korolevka in Lugansk Oblast.

The Ukrainians took back Karlivka in Poltava Oblast.

The Ukrainian army is on a roll.

The Ukrainian army has stated it will blockade Donetsk & Lugansk rather than fight their way in. However, this may be a ruse.

The fighting has been reported in Krasnodon, near Donetsk, on the Russian border and on the outskirts of Lugansk.

The Ukrainians brought food into the areas retaken.

Donetsk had a rally in support of the DPR. It has had a larger than previous rally attempts.

The welcoming of the National Guard in Kramatorsk by some residents was less than friendly. The UNG kept their temper and did not open fire.

More tanks have been reported to have crossed the border again.  There had been, or seemed to be, a pause after the Ukrainians captured the tank which was from the Russian stocks.  No more.

There have been multiple railroad bridges which have been destroyed.  Most recently, one in the Donetsk region which had a train on it.  However, two others were just prior.  

The Maidan movement went back into the square again.  They have stated they will not leave until demands are met.  I'm still trying to figure them out.  They won and yet they seem to think a nation as crippled as Ukraine can be healed in days.

Someone came into the Maidan and started looking for nonSlavs.  No word as to why.

Others were shot.  The government and the Maidan agree this was an attempt to cause tension between the Maidan and government.

The battles are ongoing, the war is far from done, but Ukraine is definitely not yet dead.

Ukraine: Patterns of Death

Ukraine suffers. There's no other way to put it.  

The bombardment of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk continues.  There are some pretty depressing videos coming out of there about the civvies.  

There is VERY heavy fighting at Shchastya (Schaste). At least 15 Ukrainian soldiers were killed there. 

Just to the south is Metalist, which the Ukrainian army took a few days ago, but there are noises it might still be contested.

There are two tanks in Donetsk.  There are claims these are T-72s again.  There has been a lot more equipment coming across the Russian border.  Whether or not these are really T-72s, I cannot say.  My Russian tank IDing days are about 20 years in the past and the ones which recently crossed from Russia were T-64s, rather than T-72s.  These may, in fact, be the same tanks reported before, but moved south from Gorlovka.  I would NOT be surprised if there was more.

There is a video of a guy walking around a T-64 which is claimed to be a captured Ukrainian army tank.  It seems abandoned as much as anything.

In Gorlovka, there is a report of an Ukrainian Su-25 being shot down.

There are reports the LGM have started quartering their troops in people's houses.  That ended well for the brits here and Ukrainians are just as fierce about their homes, if not more so.

The Russians continue to move more troops to the border.  Its feeling more and more like the earlier withdrawal was a troop rotation.  There are plenty of videos. 

Kiev is increasingly stating they believe the gas line blast was intentional.

Poroshenko is offering a unilateral ceasefire. Iryna Gerashchenko is appointed the peace envoy to the east. Pushilin rejected Poroshenko's peace plan and ceasefire. 

I am increasingly concerned about the Euromaidan activists.  They're protesting, including with the Right Sector, with increasing fervor in Kiev.  I understand their anger and frustration, but...

Ukraine: the Pattern of the Echo of the Concussive Boom. or Not.

Things keep getting better and better.

More equipment crossed from Russia into Ukraine.  There are a larger number of Grad missile launchers.

The Russians violated the border at least four times with helicopters.

There are increased reports of the Russian army moving back to the border.  Its enough to make me wonder if the pullback of troops was a rotation rather than a true withdrawl.  After all the normal rotation of draftees was postponed.

The remains of the paratroopers who died in the Il-76 shootdown were repatriated today.  Rumors claim (no video) the LGM used human shields while doing so.  Pretty outlandish, but given the circumstances...

A major gas pipeline suffered an explosion.  Kiev is suggesting it was intentional and done by the LGM. 

Russia has banned a number of Ukrainian agricultural products.

A pair of Russian journalists died in the combat zone.

Putin and Poroshenko talked about a ceasefire.

The euromaidan activists protested outside the Rada.  They demanded immediate elections for the Rada and forced a number of MPs to sign a document to that effect.  I don't see how they can possibly have an election in the Donbass or Lugansk.  However, they elected a president and the US had elections during the civil war after all. 

Russia Accuses Ukrainian Army of Crossing the Russian-Ukrainian Border

Poland remembers games of this type.

Ukraine: The Patterns of Bonfire Before Explosion?

Today was not a good day for Ukraine.

The first tank reported in Snizhne.

all three later.

In Gorlovka: AA Guns or artillery?

LGM APCs in the Donbass

The LGM drove a convoy of tanks and APCs from Russia into Snizhne and later up to Gorlovka. It was a rapid drive and makes you wonder how many were brought across. Only three as been reported? or a lot more? Are these T-72s as has been reported (mostly) or T-64s? T-72s are still used by the Russian army.  Three tanks are a platoon under the Russian organization.  If the APCs and tanks are only the ones seen, we could have a significantly larger force running around.  Their positioning in Gorlovka would indicate its an attempt at a breakthrough to Slavyansk.

Note: the tanks rolled in from the area where there was a massive battle between the Ukrainian border guards and the LGM.  The LGM backed off, but the border guards retreated.

The question now is: who is driving the tanks?  The rebels?  The Russian army?  

On the rumor side, some of the 'warbloggers' which toured eastern ukraine have reported there is a core cadre of around 600 russian army troops which the others are being trained by.  The rest are either foreign fighters along the lines the US fought in Iraq (though slavic and other eastern european mostly) or some small number of local levees.

On the odd side, the rebels or LGM are increasing their in fighting bombs are going off in each others' vehicles.  It could be these are attempted assassinations by Kiev, but...the manner they are done is more consistent with infighting between the various factions in the Donbass.

Russia has stated unless they get a payment or an agreement by monday, they will be cutting off the gas.

The Ukrainians need to engage and destroy the tanks before the LGM can use them effectively.  If there is only a platoon, a company of Ukrainian tanks ought to be sufficient or even a few Hinds.   A breakthrough to Slavyansk will be a serious problem.  These tanks represent a potentially huge increase in firepower by the LGM and with the problems the Ukrainian army has been having with 'light infantry' a huge worry. 

Perhaps we ought to lease the soon to be retired A-10s to Blackwater's successor and get them hired by the Ukrainians. 

Ukraine: The Pattern Burns

The fighting is getting more intense.  The top video is the armoured units of the Ukrainian army entering Kransy Limon: KL has been liberated from the LGM.  The second is from Slavyansk.

Border guards have surrendered or retreated or abandoned three border posts in the Lugansk region.  There was a major battle in the Donetsk region at one border post.  The remainder have been closed to traffic.

Even though there is progress by the Ukrainians, its pretty obvious they are stretched thin.  Its also obvious they are going to need years of work to get them into top form.  Its interesting to contrast my brother's tails of the ukrainian army in iraq with the videos and battles I see online and hear about.

There is a report that one of the leaders of the LGM is executing Ukrainian officers when they are captured.

Ukraine: Pattern's Ignition

a bit busy.  sorry

Ukraine: Clashes Within the Pattern

The videos above were from the battle between the border guards and the LGM.  It seems that there were wounded, even critically, but no immediate fatalities.

There are intense battles in Slavyansk, Lugansk and Kramatorsk going on right now.  

The number of foreigners which have come into Eastern Ukraine have, by reliable sources, now exceeded 10,000 men.  The total killed by the Ukrainian army, as claimed by the Ukrainian Army, is 500. 

The LGM have taken over Shakhtarsk as well.

Rumors have it the LGM are employing IEDs in buildings and on the road. 

In Lugansk there was something odd.  An RPG was fired into a building which killed some of the pro russian shadow government.  It killed a number of passersby as well.  It seems to have been fired by another faction of the pro russians.

The Russians introduced a quixotic resolution to the UN to have safe passages for food & relief in eastern Ukraine.  They vetoed this for Syria.  I wonder what they are thinking will find safe passage, eh?  

Ukraine: Swirling of Patterns

The clashes in the east intensified.  Today a helicopter was shot down and 14 to 16 soldiers died.  Inclusive was an Ukrainian general.  It was downed by a MANPADS.

There were other clashes between the LGM and Ukrainians. The largest was near Lugansk at Oleksandrivsk.  The LGM apparently destroyed supply depots of equipment before being beaten back.

Interestingly, in Donetsk especially, the different factions of the LGM are turning on one another.  One group attacked another and after a brief battle captured and still holds the survivors.

There are reports of some LGM attempting to cross back into Russia.  Those are dwarfed by the much largest numbers coming across into Ukraine: last count over 50 large trucks worth, potentially up to 2000.

Latest report is the Russians really are pulling back from the border.  

Poroshenko will be inaugurated on June 7th.

Ukraine: Patterns Strengthened

In the East, the Ukrainian army and security services have made significant progress.  They have started capturing important LGM personnel in Kramatorsk and pushed into Donetsk itself.  

Concerning though are the reports the border guards are basically besieged on the Russian border by groups of armed men passing into the country.  It might be this is an exaggeration or only localized rather than commonplace across the entire eastern border. 

The LGM have, in some cases, started sporting Russian military insignia. 

The LGM seem to be turning on the local populace even more than before.  Mortars and heavy machine guns have been reported opening fire on residential areas in Slavyansk and Donetsk. 

There was a report, which I think I missed reporting, that Ukrainian troops opened fire (a few days ago) on Russian helicopters which were probing from Crimea.  The shots were only in warning.

Unconfirmed also is the account of the Ukrainians having shot down a Russian drone.  There are some wild rumors about this UAV which I won't reproduce.  If true, at least that it was a Russian drone, that additionally complicates matters.  If the wild rumors are true...o.O  I have significant doubts though.

It appears Putin is pulling back some troops.  Albeit slowly.  My craaaazy thought which is almost 99.999% certainly wrong is Putin may have less control over his military than we'd like to think.  Perhaps he did, goes the nasty little voice in my head, order the troops back weeks ago.  And they did not follow it.  Its an extremely frightening thought and completely wrong.  I hope.

Ukraine: Hints of Patterns

Battles continue in the East.  It appears the LGM are starting to get the worst of it.  Of those captured or killed and IDed in the East, only 20% are local levees.  There are some pretty gruesome pictures from morgues being posted.

 The Ukrainian government had a deadline for the LGM to lay down their weapons for an amnesty.  That deadline has now passed.  The Ukrainians have stated they will begin the offensive full force everywhere.  They stated they held off to give time for those who realized they made a mistake to give up their arms and to minimize the violence during the presidential election.  The election is over and a large part of the LGM haven't given up.  Time to kill.

 The LGM are digging in in Donetsk.  Barricades are going up all over.  The police merely watch.

After the report of the LGM in Lugansk turning on those in Donetsk, news has come out of the LGM executing a number of their own in Donetsk.  The reason?  Rape, murder and robbery.  If they were really concerned about this, they would have stamped down hard immediately.  The LGM have come to realize the populace does not support them and they are screwed by that.

The OSCE has lost another team of observers in the Donbass.  head to desk moment here.

The most intriguing bits from Kiev? Poroshenko has come out and asked for a Lend-Lease Program with the United States: he wants direct military equipment.  he believes sanctions are close to useless in stopping Russia's intervention in Ukraine (does he read Noel's blog?)  He has also stated he wants allies and security guarantees other than the Budapest Memorandum.  If NATO membership for Ukraine is Russia's "red line," they had better be ready to confront the fact Russia has pushed Ukraine closer to NATO than any time prior. 

(my warped and funny idea is *CHINA* becomes the guarantor of Ukrainian sovereignty and drops a division of troops in the Donbas.  Watch Putin *&* Europe freak...however, the US would freak just as much...and Ukraine is not terribly friendly to the idea of the китаєць running around with guns in their country)

 

Ukraine: Clash as Clash Can

Battles rage in the east.  Donetsk's airport was occupied by the Little Green Men and the Ukrainian army attacked.  Reports are the Ukrainians took the airport back.  The LGM were routed.  Based on what happened in Crimea, and the Soviet playbook which the LGM are going by, the rapid response by the Ukrainians is understood.

There has also been a battle at the Donetsk train station, which the LGM tried to seize.

There have been further battles since.  Most have been the slow grind into Slavyansk.

The LGM leaders of Lugansk and Donetsk seem to be having some sort of falling out.  How serious it is is hard to tell.  Ukrainians have a lack of filter between mouth and brain.

There is a troubling report there are 40 odd trucks full of gunmen at the Ukrainian Russian border on the Russian side.

Poroshenko has come out to state he will not be pushing to replace Yatsenyuk. Wisdom.  wow.

Timoshenko remarkably conceded the election with beating her breast.  I thought pigs had taken flight.

Yanukovich even claims he will respect the vote.  

if Putin actually does, then ole Satan better beware snowballs.

Supposedly there is a deal in place to have the Ukrainains pay $2 billion to Russia for gas and start negotiations.  If this is done, the gas will not be turned off on the 1st.  We shall see.

Ukraine: a Broken, Chocolate Dawn

Presidential elections took place in Ukraine.  They were flawed due to the fact in the East the Little Green Men ran around smashing voting booths in the Donbass and very few votes were cast from that area.  Poroshenko is president.  Chocolate king wins a broken country.

I hope he has the wisdom to keep Yatsenyuk.  I am sure he's very aware of what a snake Akmetov is.  Since he is an oligarch, there is a lot of fear from my Ukrainian sources he will simply line his pocket and try handing Ukraine over to Putin like Yanukovich tried to do.  All we can do is sit and wait on that one.

Battles have been taking place as far as the anti LGM ops.  20 soldiers have died this past week.

There have been reports some of the Russian troops have been pulled back.  Putin has claimed he's pulled back a few times, only to be shown not the case by sat imagery.  I have to wonder if he'll pull back a little at a time, to leave the window open to try to snag eastern Ukraine as long as he can.  However, he may be giving up or shifting tactics due to the attempt at forcing the secession from the top down and it not taking.  As for why...

I have been hearing interesting stories out of Eastern Ukraine.  I do NOT know how much weight to place on them: I have railed against the rumor mill in Ukraine before.  I will do so again.  I am plugged into that rumor mill.  I'll let you decide whether you can believe this one.  or not.

There have been cases where folks claimed they were drafted into the "Ukrainian army" only to find out it was the LGM running the show.  The men in question drilled as Ukrainians, thought they were preparing to fight LGM to defend Ukraine.  However, when they went to start fighting, they found they were attacking their neighbors or Ukrainian soldiers, not LGM.  They were horrified and deserted. 

Some version of that would explain why the LGM have been failing to take over.  They lied about what they were doing and the locals, whatever stage they found out, ditched the LGM.  It would also explain the intercepted calls which the LGM spoke disparaging about the local levees.  However, to be deceived to the degree ...

I have stated before I thought Putin had to snag the Donbass and southern Ukraine - the old Wild Fields - prior to the presidential election.  I think his chances of successfully doing so are rapidly dwindling.  His hopes now are likely hinging on the gas and other pressures he can bring without firing shots.  He's hoping the pain will bring the east into his lap.  I sincerely doubt it. 

I will give Putin one thing.  This entire crisis has proven one huge boon for Ukraine in a single way: eastern Ukrainians are no longer viewing Russia as their family, brothers or sisters.  They have come to see the western Ukrainians as their people, not the Russians.  By taking Crimea, Putin has welded Ukraine together as it has never been before.  The actions of the LGM in the east have seen to that.  Putin has become a villain in their eyes.  Russia has become an enemy.

Good job, Herr Putin.

Ukraine: Critcal Crossroads

Ukraine made progress with Europe.  They signed into law several necessary steps for visa free travel!  Huzzah!  They also signed the deal for $1.37 billion worth of aid. 

Mariupol seems to have been retaken and the Little Green Men driven out.

It appears - and this can change at any moment - the Ukrainians are successfully containing the insurgency to the Donbass.

Unfortunately, things have not gone well or, perhaps wisely, otherwise.

A clash outside of Slavyansk left 7 Ukrainian soldiers dead and six more badly wounded.

Also in Slavyansk, the LGM are seizing apartments.

Debaltsevo, smack between Lugansk and Donetsk on the M03 highway, has been seized.  I'd expect Krasnyi Luch to be next.  The M03, as I have said before, is something to watch.

In Gorlovka, the Russians (and, yes, they are Russians) are running amok and pillaging individual houses.  This is from personal sources in the area.  The home invasions also include murdering the occupants and raping as well.  

Inexplicably, the Ukrainians - rumor has it - have shut off the water to Crimea.  This is provided in large part from the mainland.  I cannot fathom what they hope to accomplish.  A tit for tat for the gas which is about to be shut off?

The Europeans have placed more sanctions on Russia.

On the 'huh' side, Biden's son has joined the board of directors for NAFTOGAZ.  ?!?!

The Russians have retaliated at the Americans: the rocket engines which we have been using in the Atlas V and Antares rockets since the 1990s can no longer be sold to the US.  GPS ground stations will be shut down in Russia unless GLONASS ground stations will be allowed in the US.  The Russians will no longer participate in the international space station after 2020.  The implied threat is they will withdraw sooner and cut the Americans and possibly the rest of world off from the space station.

Ukraine: Stones for the Avalanche

The situation has not visibly progressed much.

The referendum was called a farce by the West.  Russia, of course, recognized it.  The LGM are not asking for the Russians to come in and annex them.   Russia has not, as of this writing, made a move.

Ukraine has stated it will not accept the referendum and calls it an illegal farce.  It has stated it will use force if necessary.

Russia has called for a dialog for the east and west.  This has been ignored...except...

The Russians are now stating they are cutting off the gas on June 3rd without payment.  Ukraine says they will not pay the new price.  Looks like the lights are going to go out.  or at least the gas is getting shut off.

Despite claims otherwise, the Russians have NOT pulled back their troops from the Ukrainian border whatsoever. 

There have been more clashes, but other than one near Slavyansk, there seems to have been little which is dramatic.

Europe has imposed more sanctions.  

The Mariupol police chief was NOT hung despite information stating so.  It was some other poor SOB.

These are but stones and stones start the avalanche.  And avalanches are devastating.

Ukraine When the Dire Gets Direr

In some ways, Ukraine reminds me of two armies in a meeting engagement. The move for against the Little Green Men coincided with the Russians moving on further targets: Mariupol and Odessa. Kramatorsk is abandoned by the LGM, while they move elsewhere.

Donetsk prepares for its 'referendum' and it seems the ballots have been printed. Let's see if they will have the referendum or the Ukrainians will crash their party. Here's hoping for the latter.

At Slavyansk, the Ukrainians are making progress, but less than what would be hoped. Apparently, the troops are under very specific orders not to harm civilians. While they seem to be killing a number of the LGM, they are taking a long time in doing so...which allows the infection to spread. Supposedly, in Slavyansk, they are facing 800 LGM and levees. Ukraine lost another Mi-24, this

The battle for Andreevka has begun. Ukrainian troops are engaging.

Battles for Mariupol are underway.

The Ukrainians replaced their top brass.

 Things look even more dire than the last report.  There is little progress, but lots of decay. 

I give it a 50-50 chance of Ukraine staying in one piece before May 25th.

I can hope I am wrong though and the Ukrainian army will let loose.  I'd love to see the Marines tear loose on the LGM in Mariupol.

Ukraine: Situation Dire

Ukraine edges closer and closer to a civil war.  Except that's not an accurate description, really.  There is another model which fits better.  And, no, its not exactly a foreign invasion either.

Time after time, foreign nationals have been identified as the ones doing the provocations.  These are folks sent in from Russia to 'help their brothers in Ukraine.'  These foreign nationals, these alien forces, the Little Green Men, have been the ones causing most of the problems.  Yes, truth be told, there are locals, the levees we've heard of on the intercepted calls.  However, the vast majority of this is on the hands of those LGM.

With the phone intercepts, the equipment identification and in several cases, IDing the actual LGM through their social media presences, its pretty obvious they are supported and directed by Russia.  Yet, they are not Russian flagged troops by any means.

It "can't" really be called a civil war then: since this is less about Ukrainian vs Ukrainian.  Has there been a situation in recent memory where a nation has supported insurgents in another nation to further their foreign policy goals, even to potentially annex that territory?

Why, yes, actually, and I am surprised no one else has drawn this parallel:the Kargil War.  it seems Russia was actually paying attention to that mess and how to improve upon the process with some Soviet twists.

Odessa is worse off.  The pro Russians mobbed a police station where around 70 of their number were being held.  Clashes in Odessa have been rising and the turn of events there does not look good for Ukraine.

The LGM have trotted out lots of guns in Donetsk and seized Kostyantynivka.

New provocations have started in Kherson and Kharkov.

Donetsk is planning a referendum on May 11th to secede from Ukraine.  This is to be followed by a referendum on May 18 to join Russia.  The Ukrainian presidential election is supposed to be the 25th.

The status of the counteroffensive by the Ukrainian army is in doubt.  There's little news other than more clashes outside of Slavyansk and battles in Kramatorsk.

Video of Ukrainian Helicopter Being Shot Down