Russian Mercenaries in Libya are not Working for the Russian Government says Pinocchio Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin, asked on Saturday whether mercenaries known as the Wagner Group, were fighting in Libya, said that if there are Russians in Libya, they are not representing the Russian state, nor are they paid by the state.

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10,000 Little Green Men are in Syria

Around 10,000 citizens from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, a Moscow-led security bloc of six post-Soviet nations, are fighting in Syria, Russian news agencies quoted CSTO Secretary General Nikolai Bordyuzha as saying on Tuesday.

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The Long History of Little Green Men Tactics

In both Crimea and the subsequent fighting in the Donbas region of Ukraine, Russia’s signature tactic has been the use of so-called “Green Men,” soldiers without identifying insignia whose identity as Russian soldiers the Kremlin denied. Ukraine, Georgia, and even NATO members like Estonia now fear that they could be the next target for Russia’s Green Men. NATO, alarmed by the need to prepare for this unexpected tactic, has committed to develop new countermeasures to defend against this threat. Green Men, or deniable forces, are a central part of what has come to be called “hybrid warfare” in the “gray zone” between war and peace. All of this seems to be a new and innovative departure from traditional tactics, perhaps even a new model for conflict in the 21st century.

However, deniable forces are nothing new. Nor, in fact, is the specific phenomenon of using them to seize a piece of territory, as Russia did in Crimea. There is a long history of hybrid warfare in general and of intervening with deniable forces in particular. This history points not just to the enduring nature of the threat, but also to the contours of a “counter-hybrid” strategy to defeat it.

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The Next Set of Russia's Little Green Men may be Outsourced

Yesterday, Just Russia Duma deputies tabled a draft bill that would allow private firms to create under license from the FSB their own military units, something that some Russian corporations have already done and that others appear to want to do and that could create new possibilities for deception and denial for Moscow.

According to the measure, such private firms could “provide military and guard services to the state, other companies or individual citizens, including foreign ones,” and assist Moscow in “the alternative resolution of military conflicts beyond the borders of the Russian Federation” (slon.ru/fast/russia/v-rossii-poyavyatsya-chastnye-voennye-kompanii-1174938.xhtml).

Although this bill was proposed by a nominally opposition party, the idea of creating such units enjoys support from within the pro-government United Russia Party. Last summer, Frants Klintsevich, a United Russia deputy who chairs the Duma defense committee, said he was working with the defense ministry on a similar measure.

Such privatization or outsourcing of military functions is already a major business around the world. According to the authors of the new bill, 110 countries already have some form of private militaries. Their activities a 350 billion US dollar business in which Russian firms would then have a chance to participate, backers of the plan say.

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Ukraine: Patterns of Continuing Grind

Krasnohorivka may have been liberated by the Ukrainians. However, the rumors are it was the paramilitary units of the 'Right Sector' which did so.

The rumors are the rebels and Little Green men of the Donetsk People's Republic are running out of cash and very low on morale. Cooperation between the groups which comprise the the DNR is getting worse. This ought to play into what appears to be the Ukrainians' plans because they seem to be concentrating on recapturing Donetsk before they push as hard into Lugansk. Then again, may be they are just doing better in Donetsk because the DNR is run by a bunch of idiots.

The shelling from Russia continues. The Russians repeatedly violated Ukrainian airspace. They are trying to provoke the Ukrainians into fighting. So far, the Ukrainians have resisted and focused on the DNR and LNR.

If the conflict continues, I can see the DNR crushed within three weeks. The LNR will take longer.

While I doubt it will happen, I would love to see Strelkin/Gerkin taken to Kiev to be tried along with the rest of the DNR & LNR leadership.

Ukraine: Great Patterns of Little Seen

The fighting continues, but today there was little in the way of progress on the side of the Ukrainians today.  There has been little in the way of new revelations either.  Or are there?

Ukraine's Rada refused to accept the resignation of Yatsenyuk.  Presumably this means he was persuaded to stay through the election at least.

Mass graves are being dug up in Slavyansk.

The rebels mounted a major attack on the Ukrainian army at Shakhtarsk.  There were a lot of casualties but no word whether the rebels

A Russian soldier who couldn't help himself ran around taking selfies with his unit and uploading them.  It seems Instagram was geotagging them and...he and his unit were inside Ukraine.  I thinkwe can definitely return to the tag of 'little green men' again.

The mayor of Dokuchaev was killed.

The Russians continue to stream equipment across the border and bombard the Ukrainian army who is within reach.

Ukraine: Not a Positive Pattern

First a moment of silence for the victims of MH17.

They are being transported in the Netherlands to forensics very respectfully.

Today was not a good day for Ukraine, especially for the Ukrainian armed forces.

Two Su-25s were shot down today. Ukrainians state the missile came from Russian soil. The Russians deny this.

Shelling continues from Russia into Ukraine. Ukraine cannot respond.

A brawl broke out in the Rada over raising more troops to fight the war in the Donbass.

There are reports Poroshenko is banning the communist party.

On a we-knew-that-already note, one of the leaders of the rebellion/invasion has admitted they had the BUK. 

On the positive side, Popasne in the Lugansk Oblast was also taken by the Ukrainian forces.

I would expect the Ukrainians are driving on the M04 highway.

Ukraine: Patterns of Confusion, Obfuscation & Slaughter?

The fight has moved into Gorlovka and Donetsk.  Artillery is impacting in the former (those are mine tailings fyi in the video, not hills) and street fighting has started in the latter.

Government forces have taken Heorhiyika in Lugansk Oblast. There are reports they have all but encircled Lugansk itself. In the Donetsk Oblast, Dzerzhynsk, Rubizhne and Soledar have been taken.

There are reports another AN26 was shot down.

There are conflicting reports as to what is going on with the rebels.  One report states about six armoured vehicles were headed to the border from the Ukrainian side.  Another report stated there were 30 coming in from the Russian side.  Perhaps the former were damaged and needed to be serviced?

With regards to Flight MH17, the rebels have taken the bodies on a refrigerated train.  There were 283 bodies recovered, but the train has left for parts unknown.  Likewise, chunks of the aircraft were also recovered and taken away.  The black boxes were handed over from the rebels to the Malayasian authorities.  Some of the fragments of the fuselage have very strong evidence of shrapnel.

The Russians doubled down on claiming the Ukrainians were responsible.  The US has outright said the rebels did it.  The UN has stated there must be a full and independent international investigation.  I doubt this is really possible at this point with the tampering of the site by the rebels.

Picture of Malayasian Airlines MH-17 Wreckage Shows Evidence of Shrapnel

The Financial Times posted a photo of what appears to be wreckage from the Malaysian Airlines jetliner peppered with shrapnel damage from an anti-aircraft missile.

The international community has pressed for an investigation into the cause of the Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-17 crash, However, many, including U.S. officials, have said the evidence points to pro-Russian separatists shooting down the passenger jet with an advanced surface-to-air missile system capable of hitting an aircraft flying at 33,000 feet.

The photographed wreckage above adds to that mounting collection of evidence.

SAM systems destroy aircraft by exploding in the airspace in which the aircraft is flying. The resulting shrapnel destroys the aircraft.

link.

Ukraine: Patterns of Loss and Preparation for Triumph

The major events for today were relatively small, unless you happened to be in Zelenopillya.

A motorized brigade was hit with rockets from a Grad MLRS launcher. The Ukrainian army suffered 23 immediately dead, 93 seriously injured. 

The Ukrainians continued to move more troops up to Donetsk and Lugansk.  More and more I hearing they are just going to outright storm the cities.  This is going to be bloody.  They are moving in major artillery too.  These are 152mm guns, not the Grad launchers.

The rebels keep blowing bridges.  Here's one from Gorlovka.

The russians have moved more equipment to the border again.  

Fighting continues but no places have changed hands.

Ukraine: Patterns of Unraveling (again)

Whatever Kiev says, there is fighting in eastern Ukraine.

There have been several clashes on the border in Lugansk Oblast.  

The fighting in Donetsk has been particularly bad.  

The LGM attacked multiple checkpoints to try to break out again in Slavyansk. 

The pro russians attacked the Kramatorsk airport too.

The OSCE team in Donetsk has been released.

I am concerned about a confrontation between police and the Right Sector on the road to Kirovograd.

Poroshenko outlined his plan for peace and the Union of People's Republics stated they wanted to negotiate more.

In theory, tomorrow Poroshenko will be signing the deal with the European Union.  I wonder how Yanukovich feels about that?

Ukraine: The Pattern of Nearing the Bonfire

The Ukrainian 'Anti Terrorist Operation' continues in the East.  

Fighting has moved into the city of Slavyansk, apparently on Artema Street.  Fighting is also reported at Semenivka and Kramatorsk.

Weirdness continues with the Little Green Men.  

In Lysychansk, in the Lugansk Oblast, they have declared their own, independent People's Republic, declaring independence from the Lugansk People's Republic.

The self declared mayor of Slavyansk, Ponomariov, has disappeared.  There are reports he has been arrested by the LGM.

The LGM have kidnapped the Gorlovka mayor.

The location of the video of the border guards vs the LGM has been ceded to the LGM (Marynovka).  The LGM claim they they have control of over 200 km of the border. 

Additionally, the Ukrainian government has been negotiating with Russia over the gas bills.  This has stalled.  The Russians claim they are offering the same deal as under Yanukovich, or at least the same discount.  The Ukrainians claim there are a lot of hooks which are unacceptable.

Ukraine: Swirling of Patterns

The clashes in the east intensified.  Today a helicopter was shot down and 14 to 16 soldiers died.  Inclusive was an Ukrainian general.  It was downed by a MANPADS.

There were other clashes between the LGM and Ukrainians. The largest was near Lugansk at Oleksandrivsk.  The LGM apparently destroyed supply depots of equipment before being beaten back.

Interestingly, in Donetsk especially, the different factions of the LGM are turning on one another.  One group attacked another and after a brief battle captured and still holds the survivors.

There are reports of some LGM attempting to cross back into Russia.  Those are dwarfed by the much largest numbers coming across into Ukraine: last count over 50 large trucks worth, potentially up to 2000.

Latest report is the Russians really are pulling back from the border.  

Poroshenko will be inaugurated on June 7th.

Ukraine: Patterns Strengthened

In the East, the Ukrainian army and security services have made significant progress.  They have started capturing important LGM personnel in Kramatorsk and pushed into Donetsk itself.  

Concerning though are the reports the border guards are basically besieged on the Russian border by groups of armed men passing into the country.  It might be this is an exaggeration or only localized rather than commonplace across the entire eastern border. 

The LGM have, in some cases, started sporting Russian military insignia. 

The LGM seem to be turning on the local populace even more than before.  Mortars and heavy machine guns have been reported opening fire on residential areas in Slavyansk and Donetsk. 

There was a report, which I think I missed reporting, that Ukrainian troops opened fire (a few days ago) on Russian helicopters which were probing from Crimea.  The shots were only in warning.

Unconfirmed also is the account of the Ukrainians having shot down a Russian drone.  There are some wild rumors about this UAV which I won't reproduce.  If true, at least that it was a Russian drone, that additionally complicates matters.  If the wild rumors are true...o.O  I have significant doubts though.

It appears Putin is pulling back some troops.  Albeit slowly.  My craaaazy thought which is almost 99.999% certainly wrong is Putin may have less control over his military than we'd like to think.  Perhaps he did, goes the nasty little voice in my head, order the troops back weeks ago.  And they did not follow it.  Its an extremely frightening thought and completely wrong.  I hope.

Ukraine: Hints of Patterns

Battles continue in the East.  It appears the LGM are starting to get the worst of it.  Of those captured or killed and IDed in the East, only 20% are local levees.  There are some pretty gruesome pictures from morgues being posted.

 The Ukrainian government had a deadline for the LGM to lay down their weapons for an amnesty.  That deadline has now passed.  The Ukrainians have stated they will begin the offensive full force everywhere.  They stated they held off to give time for those who realized they made a mistake to give up their arms and to minimize the violence during the presidential election.  The election is over and a large part of the LGM haven't given up.  Time to kill.

 The LGM are digging in in Donetsk.  Barricades are going up all over.  The police merely watch.

After the report of the LGM in Lugansk turning on those in Donetsk, news has come out of the LGM executing a number of their own in Donetsk.  The reason?  Rape, murder and robbery.  If they were really concerned about this, they would have stamped down hard immediately.  The LGM have come to realize the populace does not support them and they are screwed by that.

The OSCE has lost another team of observers in the Donbass.  head to desk moment here.

The most intriguing bits from Kiev? Poroshenko has come out and asked for a Lend-Lease Program with the United States: he wants direct military equipment.  he believes sanctions are close to useless in stopping Russia's intervention in Ukraine (does he read Noel's blog?)  He has also stated he wants allies and security guarantees other than the Budapest Memorandum.  If NATO membership for Ukraine is Russia's "red line," they had better be ready to confront the fact Russia has pushed Ukraine closer to NATO than any time prior. 

(my warped and funny idea is *CHINA* becomes the guarantor of Ukrainian sovereignty and drops a division of troops in the Donbas.  Watch Putin *&* Europe freak...however, the US would freak just as much...and Ukraine is not terribly friendly to the idea of the китаєць running around with guns in their country)

 

Ukraine: a Broken, Chocolate Dawn

Presidential elections took place in Ukraine.  They were flawed due to the fact in the East the Little Green Men ran around smashing voting booths in the Donbass and very few votes were cast from that area.  Poroshenko is president.  Chocolate king wins a broken country.

I hope he has the wisdom to keep Yatsenyuk.  I am sure he's very aware of what a snake Akmetov is.  Since he is an oligarch, there is a lot of fear from my Ukrainian sources he will simply line his pocket and try handing Ukraine over to Putin like Yanukovich tried to do.  All we can do is sit and wait on that one.

Battles have been taking place as far as the anti LGM ops.  20 soldiers have died this past week.

There have been reports some of the Russian troops have been pulled back.  Putin has claimed he's pulled back a few times, only to be shown not the case by sat imagery.  I have to wonder if he'll pull back a little at a time, to leave the window open to try to snag eastern Ukraine as long as he can.  However, he may be giving up or shifting tactics due to the attempt at forcing the secession from the top down and it not taking.  As for why...

I have been hearing interesting stories out of Eastern Ukraine.  I do NOT know how much weight to place on them: I have railed against the rumor mill in Ukraine before.  I will do so again.  I am plugged into that rumor mill.  I'll let you decide whether you can believe this one.  or not.

There have been cases where folks claimed they were drafted into the "Ukrainian army" only to find out it was the LGM running the show.  The men in question drilled as Ukrainians, thought they were preparing to fight LGM to defend Ukraine.  However, when they went to start fighting, they found they were attacking their neighbors or Ukrainian soldiers, not LGM.  They were horrified and deserted. 

Some version of that would explain why the LGM have been failing to take over.  They lied about what they were doing and the locals, whatever stage they found out, ditched the LGM.  It would also explain the intercepted calls which the LGM spoke disparaging about the local levees.  However, to be deceived to the degree ...

I have stated before I thought Putin had to snag the Donbass and southern Ukraine - the old Wild Fields - prior to the presidential election.  I think his chances of successfully doing so are rapidly dwindling.  His hopes now are likely hinging on the gas and other pressures he can bring without firing shots.  He's hoping the pain will bring the east into his lap.  I sincerely doubt it. 

I will give Putin one thing.  This entire crisis has proven one huge boon for Ukraine in a single way: eastern Ukrainians are no longer viewing Russia as their family, brothers or sisters.  They have come to see the western Ukrainians as their people, not the Russians.  By taking Crimea, Putin has welded Ukraine together as it has never been before.  The actions of the LGM in the east have seen to that.  Putin has become a villain in their eyes.  Russia has become an enemy.

Good job, Herr Putin.

Ukraine: The Abyss Gapes

The Abyss awaits.

That's simply the best way to put it.

Mariupol has descended into chaos.  The police chief was captured and hung by the LGM.  There are battles between Ukrainian troops and the LGM.  Multiple city buildings have been burned.

There have been multiple attempts at breakouts from Slavyansk.  Both sides are urging residents to leave.  An assault is imminent. 

The Little Green Men, their levees and allies held the referendum in the Donbass and Lugansk.  The claim is that 89% of the ballots were in support of secession and joining Russia.  The claim was 75% of people participated.  The ballots were supposedly counted - 5 million potentially! - in one hour.  There were several cars caught by the Ukrainian police full of pre filled ballots.  There was a polling station set up in MOSCOW!  

 Someone - both sides claim the other - opened fire at one of the polling stations.  Multiple people were killed.

Let's see if the Russians recognize the vote.  No one else seems to have.

The Russian Air Force apparently was ordered to provoke the Ukrainians. 

The Ukrainian counter offensive seems to have stalled.

At the moment, it seems civil war is imminent.

I was asked by my friend Noel why I was supporting, even urging, a military response to the situation in Ukraine.  Wouldn't it be better to try a peaceful response and minimize the possible damage?  And minimize the loss of life?  Considering my ties to the Donbass, I must urge a military response, even with the potential damage and loss of life.

For one, I know the culture and the people well enough I can state, honestly, if the Ukrainians do not respond, strongly, to the LGM, the locals will, over time, lose what support they have for Kiev.  They will not come to support the LGM, but they will not oppose them either: why risk your life for a wimp?  

Secondly, the show of strength is important for dealing with Moscow.  If Moscow thinks this is a cake walk, they will be in the Donbass in a heart beat.  If there might be a further cost, they will stop to consider and perhaps delay, which will buy Ukraine time.

Thirdly, how could I not urge them to defend their country?  After all, if China pulled that stunt on California, or at least San Francisco and the Peninsula, perhaps Seattle, Noel would not be asking that question.  Despite the damage done, there are some things which are worth fighting, even dying for.

Ukraine: Situation Dire

Ukraine edges closer and closer to a civil war.  Except that's not an accurate description, really.  There is another model which fits better.  And, no, its not exactly a foreign invasion either.

Time after time, foreign nationals have been identified as the ones doing the provocations.  These are folks sent in from Russia to 'help their brothers in Ukraine.'  These foreign nationals, these alien forces, the Little Green Men, have been the ones causing most of the problems.  Yes, truth be told, there are locals, the levees we've heard of on the intercepted calls.  However, the vast majority of this is on the hands of those LGM.

With the phone intercepts, the equipment identification and in several cases, IDing the actual LGM through their social media presences, its pretty obvious they are supported and directed by Russia.  Yet, they are not Russian flagged troops by any means.

It "can't" really be called a civil war then: since this is less about Ukrainian vs Ukrainian.  Has there been a situation in recent memory where a nation has supported insurgents in another nation to further their foreign policy goals, even to potentially annex that territory?

Why, yes, actually, and I am surprised no one else has drawn this parallel:the Kargil War.  it seems Russia was actually paying attention to that mess and how to improve upon the process with some Soviet twists.

Odessa is worse off.  The pro Russians mobbed a police station where around 70 of their number were being held.  Clashes in Odessa have been rising and the turn of events there does not look good for Ukraine.

The LGM have trotted out lots of guns in Donetsk and seized Kostyantynivka.

New provocations have started in Kherson and Kharkov.

Donetsk is planning a referendum on May 11th to secede from Ukraine.  This is to be followed by a referendum on May 18 to join Russia.  The Ukrainian presidential election is supposed to be the 25th.

The status of the counteroffensive by the Ukrainian army is in doubt.  There's little news other than more clashes outside of Slavyansk and battles in Kramatorsk.

Video of Ukrainian Helicopter Being Shot Down

BREAKING REPORT: Ukraine Gets Serious? Finally?

Supposedly, the Ukrainian SpecFor/Spetznaz have taken most of Slavyansk.  There are explosions and fighting in the downtown now. 

There are lots of reports the LGM are all but folding up and retreating from Slavyansk or attempting to! to Gorlovka.  (wonderful, #sarcasm).  

The LGM seem to have some atrocious radio discipline and definitely don't seem to have much in the way of encryption.

Its also interesting that they are being told, if the radios intercepts can be trusted, help from Russia is not coming quickly.

There are casualty reports coming in.  There are also reports the Ukrainians are hitting other cities than just Slavyansk.

I am delighted to see the Ukrainians actually fighting back.