Ukraine, erm, Syrian War Update: Какого черта, лягушка?

These seem to be appearing around the Donbass, especially in Donetsk.

Its a recruiting poster for fighters to volunteer for Syria.

If this isn't some prank...

Ukraine War Update: Скрытые перескоков

The frontline has been relatively quiet.    Some sources state 12 attacks along the front line.  Others state 19. 

Maryinka was one of the few spots where it was not.  Mortars both 82mm and 120mm were fired.  Small arms and automatic weapons.

Volnovakha was another source of sorrow.  However, it was because a Ukrainian soldier turned on others in his squad and killed them.  He fled afterwards.

The three missing Ukrainian soldiers near the Crimean Border are in Russian FSB custody now.  hmm.  This sounds an Estonian story.

Purgin's assistant Aleksandrov apparently tried to flee Donetsk.  Shockingly, he died of a car accident.  I would have never expected that development.  

The DNR's police are rounding up Purgin supporters.  Even babushkas if they protest.

Putin has ordered a snap drill of the Russian forces.  This is all over Russia, but notably in Rostov on Don, too.   hmmm. 

Ukraine War Update: Для кого лягушка хрипит?

The war has taken significant turns since the last post.  The situation grows ever more precarious.  Let's update.

First off, there have been several tank battles since the Novolaspa fight.  There is some question of how these fights take place.  There are some indications that both sides are using the tanks as highly mobile artillery pieces 9see above from start until 02:12) rather than as tanks are used in the US army.  Had you said American tanks were involved in a tank battle, it'd be rather different.  This would explain why they state there are tank clashes and yet so few tanks seem to be destroyed. 

[note how dry the ground is now]

However, the infantry clashes continue up and down the contact line.  VERY intensely at spots.  MGs, the AGL, and sniper fire gets crazy in various places.  They are too numerous to cover even half of them without turning this into a laundry list post only.

The artillery duels have been insane.  Donetsk last night had impacts every few seconds.  MLRS launches are constant in Donetsk, fire, reload, fire, repeat.  Mariupol was literally shaking from the artillery impacts.  Mariupol itself does not seem to be under fire, just everywhere around it. However, ambulances are racing all over the city itself.  Sartana, just north of Mariiupol has been pasted.  There are several Ukrainian civvie dead.

Related, the Ukrainian Marines have reported the DNR has been infiltrating Shirokyne and building defenses.  Recall the Ukrainians occupied Shirokyne for a time after the DNR pulled out and destroyed what was there.  Then the UAF retreated back as part of the agreement to demilitarize Shirokyne.  Well, guess what?  

In Gorlovka, a curfew of 11 PM has been imposed.

The Donnie Rebs retook Novolaspa.  This is not a surprise given the UAF pulled out of their own accord.  However, they moved a LOT of artillery and armor into the town and even pushed beyond, right up to contact with the UAF.  Since then, they have been pounding the UAF positions in Starohnativka since.

Also, T-90 tanks have been IDed in the DNR.  Some how I doubt India, Uganda, Algeria, Azerbaijan or Turkmenistan have sent their T-90s to Ukraine.  

Several more convoys of tanks have been spotted going across the border from Russia to Ukraine.  Some are T-90s.  Many are other models.

Huge convoys of trucks have been leaving the Donbass.  Reports are the trucks are quite laden based on how trucks' shocks.  The stripping of the Donbass by Russia continues it seems.

Soldiers in Mariupol are getting geared up as of 11 PM their time.  They are being told to expect action.  The Marines will act as the tripwire and take the brunt of whatever is coming, but the other soldiers will have to finish absorbing what's coming and push back.  There are not enough UAF Marines to do so.  Even though they are damned good.

Zakharchenko, head of the DNR, announced the Ukrainians will be launching an offensive in the early AM.  This is a clear sign the DNR will be doing so.  They always announce something like this when they plan on attacking the rest of Ukraine.

When this report goes up, the offensive may have begun given the time difference.  Or may not.  As I have said before, not a word out of the mouths of the Donnie Rebs can be trusted.

Oh, and New York, Putin is watching you!

People reported hearing, "You cannot hide from me..."  This would confirm Putin's alignment with the Dark One, don't you?  ;)

Ukraine: бум и молчать, лягушачий!

There was a ferocious artillery fight last night in and around Donetsk and Gorlovka:

Avdeevka (gov controlled):

Donetsk (DNR):

Incoming to Donetsk

Outgoing From Donetsk

I have not found any footage from Gorlovka which was reported as particularly bad.  

There was supposed to be a big ground battle at Maryinka again.  The DNR claims the Ukrainians mounted an offensive (huh?!) and repulsed it.  This is questionable at best.  I have not found any footage of the battle, so its a bit questionable, too.   Then again, Maryinka is largely empty save for UAF troops and the DNR on the eastern side.  The UAF has gotten quite good at OpSec.  The Russians as well.  So, no footage could be present.  Or the battle might be another bit of war story.

Mortars shelled the interior of Donetsk.  That's extraordinarily odd because mortars don't have the range from the UAF lines to reach the center of Donetsk.

Even weirder, the guns have largely fallen silent today. There are some reports of shelling, but very, very, very little compared to the day before or even on an 'average' day for this sitzkrieg.  Its a 'silence is deafening' situation.

Also related to Gorlovka, Bezler is back.  That's not a good sign.

The Russian/DNR base in Sontseve, found by drone, has been abandoned.

Ukraine War Update: Повторный запуск Огонь для Лягушка??

Yesterday, a Russian aid convoy arrived in the Donetsk region.  The aid convoy came in two groups.  The Russian border officials inspected the interiors of the trucks.  The Ukrainians only inspected the exterior of the trucks.  If the previous patterns hold, 48 to 72 hours from yesterday, Donnie Reb will go on the offensive.

This ties in nicely with the leader (Zakharchenko) of the DNR stating if Ukraine does not surrender the rest of the Donetsk Oblast, the DNR will attack to take it.

A Donetsk resident made an interesting video:

He notes the firing artillery or launch of rockets and when they impact.  Ukrainians are claiming this is evidence of what they have been saying all along: the DNR is shelling its own territory to make the residents think the Ukrainians are hitting them.  Its not clear this is happening.  The distances between the DNR and UAF forces is rather short and it could be they are impacting the UAF only.

For the moment, fighting actually died down.  Not as much as the OSCE sees, but it significantly less.  Two possible exceptions are Maryinka and Shirokyne. 

I missed putting this video up from the large assault on Maryinka:

Look at 00:54.  Peekaboo!  I see you!

Кипячение лягушка (a Ukraine War Update): The Fighting Spreads

The DNR attempted today to take Maryinka, a village outside of Donetsk. During the first half of the day, the reports were that the DNR had taken Maryinka and were advancing on Krasnohorivka. The second half, the Ukrainians claimed they still held Maryinka and had blunted the attack. By 7 PM, the OSCE had both the DNR and the Ukrainians agreeing Ukraine still held Maryinka. The OSCE stated the DNR started the attack and the OSCE tried to contact the DNR leaders to get them to stop or at least get a ceasefire. None of the DNR leaders would speak to the OSCE. The OSCE stated the fighting had stopped at or before 7 PM. Yet multiple sources have stated the fighting is still ongoing and the DNR is hardly giving up. More than one has stated the DNR is in the center of the village now. Take with large grain of salt. Combat losses for the DNR seem to be 24 KIA and over 90 WIA. The losses for the Ukrainians are supposed to be 19 KIA and 25 WIA.  There are claims casualties for both sides were higher.

Supposedly the fighting is still going on. Videos of fighting at night are being posted, but the question is whether or not they are from early this morning or tonight. Reinforcements for the Donnie Rebs have been seen moving through Donetsk towards Maryinka.

Fighting was also reported at Shirokyne and Volnovakha early in the day. The fighting also spread to Avdeevka. There are rumors of elsewhere as well.

Shelling was virtually everywhere (Gorlovka scares us and some of the people ranting about the shelling in the online videos are known to us)

The Russians first claimed the Ukrainians caused the fight in Maryinka.

The Russians also told OSCE due to Ukrainian actions, there would be no further attempts to negotiate for the foreseeable future regarding peace in Ukraine. The Ukrainians had reported days ago there was an impasse and the Russians were obstructing. 

The OSCE found Russian troops in Russian uniforms with Russian plates in the Donbass as well.

If I were a betting man, I'd say there will be another significant push at 4 am Donetsk time.  Around an hour after this post goes up.

No time for a Ukraine the Boil Frog Post: Enjoy the People's Republic of Donetsk Instead

Ukraine: Russia Unhappy With Only Boiled Frog?

Fighting seems to continue in Debalsteve.

A Ukrainian Army helicopter was shotdown.  It was within the LNR, which is a bit...odd.

The Ukrainians still holding the wreckage of the Donetsk Airport.  Shelling by the rebels continues there.

There are reports of mass graves outside of Donetsk.  Both sides point at the other.

Ukraine's government has expressed a lot of doubt the cease fire will last.

The Russians are amping up their persecution of the Tatars.  They are accusing the Tatars of hoarding weapons and distributing extremist literature.  This will not end well.

The Russians have commenced another very large exercise.

The Russians have sent a letter to Ukraine stating if the EU treaty is implemented, they will cut off all trade with Ukraine.

The Russians are now starting to send MiG-31s on the air "raids" against the Western nations.  This is a significant departure from the past where they sent bombers and tankers only.  It seems they are giving their tankers and whatnot a long range escort. 

Finally, the Russians are supposed to be sending another aid convoy to eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine: Patterns of Slow Progress Weaved With Dismay and Hope

There seems to be progress once more on in the Donbass in Ukraine.

The Ukrainians have taken Panteleimonivka near Gorlovka and Donetsk.  My guess is they will head to Korsun next.  Supposedly, the lines of communication have been cut between Gorlovka and Donetsk.  Based on the roads, this looks like why.

There are confusing reports whether or not they have also taken Miusynsk. The Ukrainian armed forces have entered at least. This is between Snizhne and Krasnyi Luch on the H21 highway. The goal is obviously to take Krasnyi Luch.  The LNR may be trying to breakthrough to the DNR.  The DNR, specifically Strelkov, has been pleading for help, stating the Ukrainians are about to crush his forces.  This may who is contesting Miusynk.

There are also confusing reports as to whether or not Mariinka has been taken from the DNR.  Its been reported as taken before. 

Fortunately, most of the Ukrainian soldiers who crossed into Russia have been repatriated.  The OSCE escorted them back.  Rumors are that 36 of the soldiers have been retained.  Despite what you see in the Russo-apologist sphere, they were not there to defect. Why the Russians let them go...is a bit of a head scratcher.

Borodai has resigned as the DNR's Prime minister in favour of someone who is actually Ukrainian. Zakharchenko is supposed to be taking his place. This may be a gambit to get the locals to accept the DNR.  This strongly implies the DNR is on is very last legs. 

Canada is sending more equipment for the Ukrainians.

Unfortunately, the  an Mi-8 helicopter (supposedly a medevac) and a Mig-29 were shot down today. 

Equally, unfortunately, the Maidan and Kiev government are clashing.  Independence Square is being cleared - often by ex euromaidan who became soldiers - and the Euromaidan activists are fighting back.  Though it seems halfheartedly. 

The Russians continue to pour in equipment and artillery fire into Ukraine. 

There are strong rumors the Russians are going to invade.  Supposedly tomorrow.  NATO has been concerned about this too.

Ukraine: Patterns of Continuing Grind

Krasnohorivka may have been liberated by the Ukrainians. However, the rumors are it was the paramilitary units of the 'Right Sector' which did so.

The rumors are the rebels and Little Green men of the Donetsk People's Republic are running out of cash and very low on morale. Cooperation between the groups which comprise the the DNR is getting worse. This ought to play into what appears to be the Ukrainians' plans because they seem to be concentrating on recapturing Donetsk before they push as hard into Lugansk. Then again, may be they are just doing better in Donetsk because the DNR is run by a bunch of idiots.

The shelling from Russia continues. The Russians repeatedly violated Ukrainian airspace. They are trying to provoke the Ukrainians into fighting. So far, the Ukrainians have resisted and focused on the DNR and LNR.

If the conflict continues, I can see the DNR crushed within three weeks. The LNR will take longer.

While I doubt it will happen, I would love to see Strelkin/Gerkin taken to Kiev to be tried along with the rest of the DNR & LNR leadership.

Ukraine: Grinding Patterns

Today was a strange one for Ukraine.

First off, the ruling coalition for Ukraine collapsed when the Udar and Svobada parties withdrew from the government. Yatsenyuk has resigned. The reason for this was to force new elections and to get try to force out the members of the Rada seen as obstructionist and 'traitors.' I sincerely hope Yatsenyuk regains his position after the election. Volodymyr Groysman was appointed as PM in his place.

Secondly, the Rada is has a bill before it to renew its nuclear status: 4351a.

The Ukrainians have taken Lysychansk.This is just across the river from Severodonetsk which the Ukrainians had just taken in the past few days in Lugansk Oblast.  The Ukrainians also took Verkhniokamenskiy in the Donetsk Oblast.

The rebels keep blowing up bridges. More in Donetsk Oblast especially. One in Gorlovka again and another with a train. Multiple sites have been blown for the railroad tracks.

The Russians have been increasing the # of shellings from their territory. One Ukrainian brigade (79th) got hit hard. This reminds me of the fights between the separatists and Georgians. I think the Ukrainians are aware of the danger and are trying to avoid the same outcome.  The US government has acknowledged this...finally.

There is an interesting video this morning (yesterday if you are a Ukrainian reading this) from a car-camera driving through Lugansk at 9:30 am.  There is not a soul in sight.

Both Canada and Europe added more sanctions.

Ukraine: a New, Hopeful Pattern

I chose the wrong time going on vacation!  A lot has happened in Ukraine.  A lot which is hopeful.  if you are a Ukrainian Nationalist at least.

The Ukrainians have taken Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Riznykivka, Artemivsk, Kostyantynivka, Semenivka & Druzhkivka, in Donetsk Oblast.

The Ukrainians have taken Zakotne, Raygorodka, RaiOleksandrivka & Korolevka in Lugansk Oblast.

The Ukrainians took back Karlivka in Poltava Oblast.

The Ukrainian army is on a roll.

The Ukrainian army has stated it will blockade Donetsk & Lugansk rather than fight their way in. However, this may be a ruse.

The fighting has been reported in Krasnodon, near Donetsk, on the Russian border and on the outskirts of Lugansk.

The Ukrainians brought food into the areas retaken.

Donetsk had a rally in support of the DPR. It has had a larger than previous rally attempts.

The welcoming of the National Guard in Kramatorsk by some residents was less than friendly. The UNG kept their temper and did not open fire.

More tanks have been reported to have crossed the border again.  There had been, or seemed to be, a pause after the Ukrainians captured the tank which was from the Russian stocks.  No more.

There have been multiple railroad bridges which have been destroyed.  Most recently, one in the Donetsk region which had a train on it.  However, two others were just prior.  

The Maidan movement went back into the square again.  They have stated they will not leave until demands are met.  I'm still trying to figure them out.  They won and yet they seem to think a nation as crippled as Ukraine can be healed in days.

Someone came into the Maidan and started looking for nonSlavs.  No word as to why.

Others were shot.  The government and the Maidan agree this was an attempt to cause tension between the Maidan and government.

The battles are ongoing, the war is far from done, but Ukraine is definitely not yet dead.

Ukraine: Patterns of Dying or Flaring Embers

The ceasefire has been ordered to be extended for another three days. 

The negotiations continue, but nothing has come to fruition.

Ukraine signed the association agreement with the EU.  So did Moldova and Georgia. 

The Russians have threatened the Ukrainians if the EU pact harms the Russian economy.

A national guard base in Donetsk was taken by the pro Russians.

In Kramatorsk, the LGM used a reported *8* tanks to attack the Ukrainian army.  Casualties reported were very light considering.  Were they really tanks?  Or AFVs of some other stripe?

Another tank was used at Artemivsk against the Ukrainian army.

Another attack took place near Slavyansk.

Near Lugansk, another 25 armoured fighting vehciles crossed into Ukraine.

In videos online, there's an increasing number of American Hummers and trucks the Ukrainian army is using. 

The Russians are staging a very large number of AFVs in the Voronezh Oblast.

Ukraine: Patterns of Unraveling (again)

Whatever Kiev says, there is fighting in eastern Ukraine.

There have been several clashes on the border in Lugansk Oblast.  

The fighting in Donetsk has been particularly bad.  

The LGM attacked multiple checkpoints to try to break out again in Slavyansk. 

The pro russians attacked the Kramatorsk airport too.

The OSCE team in Donetsk has been released.

I am concerned about a confrontation between police and the Right Sector on the road to Kirovograd.

Poroshenko outlined his plan for peace and the Union of People's Republics stated they wanted to negotiate more.

In theory, tomorrow Poroshenko will be signing the deal with the European Union.  I wonder how Yanukovich feels about that?

Ukraine: UnPatterned Quiet

Ukraine has been relatively quiet.  That's relatively.

Talks are ongoing.  No progress really.

The Lugansk People's Republic cut off the webcams they could find there.  This followed a large number of tanks and apcs being seen on the webcams this morning.

That followed attacks on the border guards near Lugansk and the national guard troops there, too.

Near Krasny Liman, Ukrainian soldiers were attacked with several wounded.

NATO countries are setting up some sort of trust funds for the Ukrainian military.  What this is exactly, I am not sure. 

Russia officially repealed its legal statute allowing it to invade Ukraine (what about Crimea?!)

And the west has stated they are ready to introduce more sanctions.

Ukraine is set to sign the agreement which sparked the entire Euromaidan revolution on friday.

Ukraine: No Ceasing the Fire of the Pattern

On the face of things, there is some hope for ending the blood shed in Ukraine.  The rebels are talking to Kiev.  Kiev declared a ceasefire.  The Russians are supposedly repealing the bill which authorized Putin to invade.  It looks very promising.  

However, this story is Ukrainian, not Disney and the Russians are involved.  Their tales are quite...dark.

The talks have all but stalled.

The Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republics have announced they are uniting into becoming the Union of People's Republics.

During the 'ceasefire' a transport helicopter was shotdown (MANPADS).

A railroad bridge was bombed connecting the West to the East near Novodanylivka.

Bombs went off at the Donetsk railstation.

A bomb went off under a train elsewhere.  

Fighting is reported in Donetsk near the airport. 

Three tanks have been shelling the Ukrainian held airport at Kramatorsk for two days straight.

Slavyansk has a fight going on now.  From what I gather, its a break out attempt by the LGM.

Multiple border crossings have been attacked.

The Russians continue to pour weapons into the Donbass.

The Russians continue to build up on the Ukrainian border.

 

Poroshenko has stated unless the attacks by the LGM stop, he's canceling the ceasefire now. 
Putin has stated the ceasefire ought to be extended.

The "ceasefire" expires in 41 hours. 

Ukraine: Patterns Within Patterns

The fighting continues in Ukraine.

Battles are intensifying around Lugansk.  It's looking more and more like the Ukrainians are moving very large forces there.  I've seen videos of company sized tank units in the area and more.  I suspect there will be a big push in the next week for the area.

There are clashes in Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.  The shelling is brutal at times, but not long lasting. This appears to be being done by the Ukrainians.

The LGM on the other hand are doing the same back to Krasnyi Liman.  Most recently the hospital there was shelled.  It appears to be mortar fire.

The Russians are turning their equipment supplies to the LGM and levees to from a drip to a dribble.  Reports are of 3 more GRAD MLRS crossed today, that were seen.  Probably more. 

The Russian army's second build up by the Ukrainian border has been confirmed by NATO and the White House.  More and more this looks like we had a troop rotation.

Poroshenko was on the phone with Putin to discuss and try to reach an agreement on the cease fire.  Later Lavrov accused Poroshenko of merely playing for time.  The irony is Pushilin (the DNR's rep) was the first to reject the truce.  

Digging through the videos online and sources of information online, there is a LOT of blatantly stunningly false information.  This is especially true from the Russian sources - Russia Today, etc.  Stunningly, they often splice in video from Iraq from 4+ years ago and state its happening in Ukraine, esp when it comes to the American troops or Mercs, in Ukraine.  The dubs of American Congress critters are also amusing: you can find almost all the originals online.

Ukraine: Patterns of Death

Ukraine suffers. There's no other way to put it.  

The bombardment of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk continues.  There are some pretty depressing videos coming out of there about the civvies.  

There is VERY heavy fighting at Shchastya (Schaste). At least 15 Ukrainian soldiers were killed there. 

Just to the south is Metalist, which the Ukrainian army took a few days ago, but there are noises it might still be contested.

There are two tanks in Donetsk.  There are claims these are T-72s again.  There has been a lot more equipment coming across the Russian border.  Whether or not these are really T-72s, I cannot say.  My Russian tank IDing days are about 20 years in the past and the ones which recently crossed from Russia were T-64s, rather than T-72s.  These may, in fact, be the same tanks reported before, but moved south from Gorlovka.  I would NOT be surprised if there was more.

There is a video of a guy walking around a T-64 which is claimed to be a captured Ukrainian army tank.  It seems abandoned as much as anything.

In Gorlovka, there is a report of an Ukrainian Su-25 being shot down.

There are reports the LGM have started quartering their troops in people's houses.  That ended well for the brits here and Ukrainians are just as fierce about their homes, if not more so.

The Russians continue to move more troops to the border.  Its feeling more and more like the earlier withdrawal was a troop rotation.  There are plenty of videos. 

Kiev is increasingly stating they believe the gas line blast was intentional.

Poroshenko is offering a unilateral ceasefire. Iryna Gerashchenko is appointed the peace envoy to the east. Pushilin rejected Poroshenko's peace plan and ceasefire. 

I am increasingly concerned about the Euromaidan activists.  They're protesting, including with the Right Sector, with increasing fervor in Kiev.  I understand their anger and frustration, but...

Ukraine: Pattern's Ignition

a bit busy.  sorry

Ukraine: Clashes Within the Pattern

The videos above were from the battle between the border guards and the LGM.  It seems that there were wounded, even critically, but no immediate fatalities.

There are intense battles in Slavyansk, Lugansk and Kramatorsk going on right now.  

The number of foreigners which have come into Eastern Ukraine have, by reliable sources, now exceeded 10,000 men.  The total killed by the Ukrainian army, as claimed by the Ukrainian Army, is 500. 

The LGM have taken over Shakhtarsk as well.

Rumors have it the LGM are employing IEDs in buildings and on the road. 

In Lugansk there was something odd.  An RPG was fired into a building which killed some of the pro russian shadow government.  It killed a number of passersby as well.  It seems to have been fired by another faction of the pro russians.

The Russians introduced a quixotic resolution to the UN to have safe passages for food & relief in eastern Ukraine.  They vetoed this for Syria.  I wonder what they are thinking will find safe passage, eh?