Ukraine War Update: Для кого лягушка хрипит?

The war has taken significant turns since the last post.  The situation grows ever more precarious.  Let's update.

First off, there have been several tank battles since the Novolaspa fight.  There is some question of how these fights take place.  There are some indications that both sides are using the tanks as highly mobile artillery pieces 9see above from start until 02:12) rather than as tanks are used in the US army.  Had you said American tanks were involved in a tank battle, it'd be rather different.  This would explain why they state there are tank clashes and yet so few tanks seem to be destroyed. 

[note how dry the ground is now]

However, the infantry clashes continue up and down the contact line.  VERY intensely at spots.  MGs, the AGL, and sniper fire gets crazy in various places.  They are too numerous to cover even half of them without turning this into a laundry list post only.

The artillery duels have been insane.  Donetsk last night had impacts every few seconds.  MLRS launches are constant in Donetsk, fire, reload, fire, repeat.  Mariupol was literally shaking from the artillery impacts.  Mariupol itself does not seem to be under fire, just everywhere around it. However, ambulances are racing all over the city itself.  Sartana, just north of Mariiupol has been pasted.  There are several Ukrainian civvie dead.

Related, the Ukrainian Marines have reported the DNR has been infiltrating Shirokyne and building defenses.  Recall the Ukrainians occupied Shirokyne for a time after the DNR pulled out and destroyed what was there.  Then the UAF retreated back as part of the agreement to demilitarize Shirokyne.  Well, guess what?  

In Gorlovka, a curfew of 11 PM has been imposed.

The Donnie Rebs retook Novolaspa.  This is not a surprise given the UAF pulled out of their own accord.  However, they moved a LOT of artillery and armor into the town and even pushed beyond, right up to contact with the UAF.  Since then, they have been pounding the UAF positions in Starohnativka since.

Also, T-90 tanks have been IDed in the DNR.  Some how I doubt India, Uganda, Algeria, Azerbaijan or Turkmenistan have sent their T-90s to Ukraine.  

Several more convoys of tanks have been spotted going across the border from Russia to Ukraine.  Some are T-90s.  Many are other models.

Huge convoys of trucks have been leaving the Donbass.  Reports are the trucks are quite laden based on how trucks' shocks.  The stripping of the Donbass by Russia continues it seems.

Soldiers in Mariupol are getting geared up as of 11 PM their time.  They are being told to expect action.  The Marines will act as the tripwire and take the brunt of whatever is coming, but the other soldiers will have to finish absorbing what's coming and push back.  There are not enough UAF Marines to do so.  Even though they are damned good.

Zakharchenko, head of the DNR, announced the Ukrainians will be launching an offensive in the early AM.  This is a clear sign the DNR will be doing so.  They always announce something like this when they plan on attacking the rest of Ukraine.

When this report goes up, the offensive may have begun given the time difference.  Or may not.  As I have said before, not a word out of the mouths of the Donnie Rebs can be trusted.

Oh, and New York, Putin is watching you!

People reported hearing, "You cannot hide from me..."  This would confirm Putin's alignment with the Dark One, don't you?  ;)

Ukraine War Update: Итоговый бис горячей лягушки?

There have been a number of developments in the war in Ukraine that warrant bringing to the everyone's attention.  Or at last my reader's attention.

The first and foremost development is the apparent failure of Minsk III.  The negotiations, by many reports, were an utter failure.  Ukraine has been making the attempt to meet the *NR demands.  The *NR seem to be disinterested in meeting the Ukrainians part way.  Or even accepting what they said they wanted.  Pushilin has come out to say if the talks fail, then the war would restart (snork!  see below).  A bit of totally amateur analysis: the Donnie Rebs are going to push for more.  There is a cultural bit I keep harping on.  The West has been trying to get Kiev to follow a Western line: agree to something, implement it and you get what you agreed to.  Russians and Ukrainians, in my personal experience, tend to watch what you give into and then see how much they can keep pushing and hard for what else they can get their opponents to concede to.  Right now, Donnie Reb is feeling strong because Kiev conceded.  They will push for a lot more or feel they are strong enough to take on the Ukrainians military way.

The second major development is former Prime Minister Azarov formed a committee for the overthrow of the Kievan government and is forming a government in exile.  He is, of course, in Russia.  The Russians wouldn't let this happen unless they wanted it to.  So.  Guess what, folks?

The third development which is borderline major is what has happened in Shirokyne.  The DNR pulled back from the city to the east.  The Ukrainian volunteer battalions moved into the town and occupied it.  The Ukrainian authorities agreed to make Shirokyne a DMZ and had the Ukrainian Marines move in to replace the volunteer battalions.  Once done, the Marines pulled back and the DMZ was set up.  The problem was a day or two later, the DNR/Russians moved armor and artillery into Vodayne and Kominternove.  Please note their position wrt Shirokyne.  yeah. exactly.

The ceasefire really isn't one.   The OSCE movements are pretty much watched and wherever they are, the fighting stops.  Once they leave, it resumes.  Most of the time.  The OSCE has come under fire a few times, however.  The OSCE has warned about the troop build up which is taking place and they seem to have finally taken note of. 

Some places, like Donetsk and Gorlovka are getting pounded still.  Nor is it one sided.  its pretty much all the fraking time, but especially bad at night.

The Donnie Rebs are pretty guilty of attacking the Ukrainians:

The Ukrainians are guilty of hitting the DNR and LNR as well, even when they are not shot at:

And the civilians get caught in the middle:

This is war.  And it sucks and the normal, good people get caught in the middle.

In Avdiivka, the locals came out to protest against the UAF.  They want them gone so the artillery shells will not impact where they live.  The UAF has been guilty there at least and probably elsewhere of placing military units in the residential areas.  However, I do know in at least some cases they offered to evacuate the civvies and some have refused.

The clashes are not just with artillery.  There are a lot of infantry clashes going on.  However, these are closer to WWI fights or perhaps the end of Korea.  Prepared positions with neither side seemingly interested in advancing. 

Ukraine: Охлаждение горшок или войны предупреждение?

To me, it had seemed things were cooling down across the contact line despite the build on the Russian side.  Shirokyne has largely become passive.  Numerous places had become quieter in general.  The number of ceasefire violations seemed to be down.  Gorlovka was getting its water fixed.  etc.

There have been exceptions: ironically, just outside of Gorlovka has been a pretty long, ongoing battle.  There are reports of gunfire rather than just artillery.  Donetsk proper also has a lot of artillery shelling to and from the villages ringing to the West.  There have been claims of multiple clashes in Maryinka again, but little supporting evidence past rumors.  

The real scary part has been with the stupid Right Sector and its protests.  This has been winding down.  Whatever force they had is nearly spent, or so it seems.  If this is the case, I am relieved.  

Even so there are/were frightening signs.  The OSCE on two separate occasions and two different places observed two different brigade sized formations using their drones on the Donnie Reb side of the contact line.  They also observed very large exercises well behind the lines as well in the LNR.  Even so, the Ukrainians are exercising as well, getting ready for come-what-may (which have paid off at least as we saw in Maryinka).  So what's the big deal?  Would Putin risk his slowly thawing position for a stab at Ukraine again?

The answer might, in fact, be 'yes,' he's going to.  The US State Department issued travel advisory for Crimea and the Donbass.  If you're American, they stated, split now.  The situation has become volatile.  huh?  Why now?  What's changed since January?  Something seems off and odd.  Did they see the Donnie Rebs finally ready for their offensive?  Or...?  

The change in stance, after the nonhappenings of the 15th, is a huge surprise.

As always, let's see what goes down.  It may be, with the arrival of another convoy, the DNR/LNR have the supplies they need to take it to the UAF.  We'll see in about 24 to 48 hours, I'd speculate, if anything in the near future.  Early mornings before the sunrises, but not too early.  The sun in the faces of the enemy seems to be a DNR tactic.

Ukraine War Update: Steinmeier ist ein dummkopf bereit

Sorry if my German is a little rusty.  I get more practice these days with my Russian (which is still atrocious) than either my German or Spanish.  Normally, I open with a discussion of the battles going on in Ukraine.  While the large scale incursions, like at Maryinka, have died down again, well, except for Shirokyne, of course, the clashes are ongoing all along the contact line.  We seem to have returned to a sitzkrieg.

However, the big news of today is the idiocy of the German government.  Not only have they lost their minds over Greece, they keep demonstrating batshit nutsiness when it comes to Ukraine: ""The ceasefire in eastern Ukraine could become an example for other regions."  oy.  Just oy.  He said it in context of atempting to broker a ceasefire in Shirokyne.

Let me be blunt: Donnie Reb has no desire to make peace.  As soon as there is peace, the local populace will turn their attention on their 'leaders' and that will turn out badly.  The locals have already stated protesting the war and the conditions they are in.  Without having to duck and hide all the time...

Speaking of Shirokyne.  Vice News spent time with the fighters there and one of the soldiers they interviewed was killed during the visit:

Then there is a 'nice' walk through of the remains of Shirokyne by some Ukrainian allied Chechens:

 Further to the north, around Shirokyne, more villages are now being bombarded. These are ones you would hit if you were to bypass Shirokyne to head to Mariupol.

Finally, lest we forget Lugansk:

link.

While the battle for the Donetsk Airport is remembered, it had a prequel in the battle for Lugansk's airport.  There are the photos of the Lugansk airport since the battle there ended. 

Ukraine War Update: When a good subreddit goes to war

Ukraine War Update: Лягушка в кляре

The fighting continues.  The Russians and the Donnie Rebs attacked Maryinka several times by infantry and armor supported by artillery.  Always at night, so it has been hard to tell exactly how many are involved.  Maryinka's sister city of Krasnohorivka  was also attacked in the same manner.  If ever there was a chance this was a distraction, this would be it.  I doubt it, but this is how you'd run an attack like that.  Make a big assault, draw back and then keep hitting the same spot in sufficient numbers to force the Ukrainians or trick the Ukrainians into concentrating.  Then swing around and encircle them.  The old cauldron trick.  

Artillery has ripped up the contact line from Lugansk all the way south to Maryinka.  Shyrokino keeps getting pounded on as well.

There is a large gap though which is interesting largely between Maryinka and Shyrokino where the artillery is not falling, at least in the last 24 hours.  Equally interesting are the reports of massed armor on the other side of the gap.  Pull the Ukrainian reserves to fights away from where you intend to attack and...punch on through.  At least you're only facing whatever is on the contact line, not reinforcements.  Might mean something.  Might not.

Interestingly, also in Donetsk proper, Gorlovka (Hirlivka) and Stakhanov there seems to be small arms firing.  In the last on the list, Stakhanov, there seems to be explosions from the same area as where the small arms firing seems to be taking place.  There are no UAF troops there.  Could it be another Donnie Reb unit being rounded up or wiped out?  Or...?

It seems the economic crush in the DNR has gotten worse: there's no publicly available gasoline in Donetsk.

While I recommend reading anything Bershidsky with a serious grain of salt, this article portrays a lot of what I have harped on about Russians and Putin. 

The Minsk Accord, One Week Later

I guest blog over at Noel Maurer's The Power and the Money about the progress or lack thereof on Minsk II.  To say things are not going well is to use British understatement.

No time for a Ukraine the Boil Frog Post: Enjoy the People's Republic of Donetsk Instead

Ukraine: The Frog and the Microwave About to Explode?

A peace deal has been worked out in Minsk.  At the moment, we are going to get a frozen conflict.  There must be a buffer zone between the Ukrainian army and the Russians of 50 km.  The intent is to keep either side from shelling the other with artillery.

OTOH, the ceasefire has been called one in name only by NATO.

OTGH, the separatists have been shelling around Mariupol and in Donetsk at the airport.

The really important questions though are what is happening in Avdviika (a chance there is a large tank attack underway), if the reported attack in Debaltseve and if reports the rebels are turning on one another in Krasny Luch and Antratsyt are true.  Any of these are a big deal.

The rebels/Russians are now starting to wave a flag of the Kharkov People's Republic.  Its just the former heads of the DNR and LNR doing so, but...

Flipside is there is a nontrivial number of Americans ex military personnel going over to train the Ukrainians.  It might be possible for the Ukrainians at least to be able to resist further encroachment with the proper training and...

Poland is willing to sell their old Soviet equipment (as suspected here) to the Ukrainians.  Interesting timing and I am probably reading waaaay too much into this is that the US agreed to sell missiles and other weapons to Poland at the same time.

Time might be on Ukraine's side.  That is if they can lobby Congress well, get their army trained and accept and fix the equipment they are now getting from Poland, etc.  They just have to keep the microwave from being turned on.  Ribbit.

Watch for provocations, folks.  There are likely several coming, real and maskirovka-style.